Israel's Next War

by Martin Archer

  “Do you think they will? Join the war, I mean?”

  “I don’t think so but you never know. Either way it’s going to be costly for Israel with or without our help—but despite the surprise I think they’re going to win even if Egypt joins the Coalition Army. That’s what I told Hegazi a couple of days ago and I still think it’s true. Two of my aides, Major Evans and Mister Duffy, spent the last couple of weeks TDY with one of the Israeli brigades. They think the Israeli army is really good…. And by the way, have you heard anything from either Evans or Duffy? They’re still with the Israelis.”

  “Sorry General, but I haven’t.”

  “Damn. Well if they call please try to patch them through to me.”

  After I hung up I repeatedly tried to call Tel Aviv to get an update from the Defense Ministry and ask if there is anything we can do to help. I had no luck in getting through for a couple of hours. When I finally did get through to Ari’s office he wasn’t available. Well that’s no surprise. So I left word as to where I am and asked him to call me at his convenience to talk about how we might help. I explained to his aide that I’m in Cairo and my Washington office can patch him through to me at the Cairo embassy if he wants to talk.

  About ten minutes later, after I picked up an M-16 and some clips from the Marines’ armory, Dorothy and I were sorting through the embassy’s rather limited medical supplies in its second floor first aid closet. All of a sudden one of the secretaries we had lunch with rushed in out of breath to tell me I have an important call in the secure room of the communications center.

  The caller was the Israeli Defense Minister and he sounded anxious. He quickly brought me up to date with a terse report about heavy fighting and a request for all the aid we can airlift in, particularly tanks, APCs, and gunships. His anxiety is worrisome.

  A call from Peter came in right after I hung up when I was still sitting in front of the phone thinking about what I’d just heard from Ari. I told Peter about Israel’s request and said I intended to call the President as soon as we hang up with my strongest possible recommendation for an airlift to begin immediately.

  "And I want you to call the President yourself if I don’t get through or get cut off. The White House operator will know."

  Peter, in turn, excitedly informed me the National Security Agency is now reporting mechanized units of the Israeli army have been ordered to move into Lebanon and Jordan in force. They are even picking up indications of Israeli-Jordanian cooperation and possible joint operations.

  Peter’s excitement deflated a bit when I informed him I’d been told moves into Lebanon and Jordan by Ari himself and could confirm the NSA report. But he perked up when I asked him to wait for twenty minutes to give me time to talk to the President and then contact Tony Talbot and ask him if Defense has received the “go ahead” from the President to start moving some of the Seventh Army’s tanks and APCs from Germany to the Israelis. If not, he’s to call me immediately.

  Peter likes to talk to the movers and shakers. Dorothy is a bit cynical about Peter; she thinks he gets off on dropping names at the dinner parties he seems to constantly attend.

  “Let everyone you speak with know I just spoke to Ari and the Israelis have asked for all the armor and gunships we can send them and the sooner the better. I want you to strongly suggest, absolutely insist and keep on insisting, it’s time to get an airlift going and it should be a big one. And be sure to tell everyone you talk to how important it is to give priority to tanks and assault helicopters which are already fully loaded with fuel and ammo.”

  The Security Council meeting isn’t for another hour and I don’t want to delay starting the airlift. I think Israel is going to win but it sounds like it could be close and might still go either way.

  I also told Peter to use my name if anyone asks about Cairo.

  "Tell them I said there is a big crowd of Egyptians outside the embassy and Ambassador Tolson is handling the situation quite nicely and does not need guidance from someone who is not on the scene and not familiar with the situation." I emphasized the word ’not’ each time I said it. I’m going to tell the President the same thing at this morning’s meeting. Hopefully it will stop the handwringers at State from ordering Tolson to do something really stupid like opening the embassy gate and surrendering without a fight. Some people never learn and many of them work in the State Department.

  ******

  According to the constant stream of NSA reports I’ve been receiving ever since I got up in the middle of last night, the Israeli air force and the Israeli army helicopters are having much more success in Jordan and Lebanon than they are on the Golan and Northern Israel. Even so, despite their casualties, the satellite photos and radio intercepts clearly show large numbers of Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian armor and troops continuing to come over the Jordanian and Lebanese borders just as they are doing on the Golan. Their purpose is obvious – dash through the lightly defended non-coalition Arab countries on either side of Israel and hit Israel on its vulnerable flanks.

  And coming in on Israel’s flanks is exactly what is happening according to the satellite photos and the interpretations attached to them. The Coalition’s troops and militia units are pouring over the border and into Jordan and Lebanon. The big difference is they are doing so without meeting the same stiff resistance they’re getting from the Israelis. If they’re meeting any at all.

  The first take of NSA and the Defense Department analysts is the Islamic Army is concentrating its SAMs on the Golan because they believe the Israelis will not come to the aid of the Jordanians and Lebanese in a meaningful way, particularly so long as Israel itself is being directly attacked. They are obviously assuming Israel will follow conventional military doctrine and concentrate its forces in an effort to defeat its most immediate threat—the heavy attacks pushing into Israel from the Syrian border.

  In other words, according to the NSA and DoD reports, the Coalition’s commanders expect to face only the small Jordanian and Lebanese armies and their even smaller air forces until they reach Israel – and perhaps no resistance at all if the Jordanians and Lebanese decide to sit out the war or join the Coalition.

  That’s important analysis for the Israelis to know even though I’m almost positive they already know it. No sense taking chances,—I immediately called Peter back and ordered him to share it with the Israelis just in case. It’s not that I expect they need to be told but one never knows.

  It’s important if the Coalition is concentrating its SAMs on the Golan because it means the few mobile SAMs the Islamic forces do bring into Jordan and Lebanon will be spread out and vulnerable to Israeli “Wild Weasel” strikes. They need to know because the rapid advances the Islamic army is making in those countries are undoubtedly causing its SAMs to be spread out over a relatively large territory. As a result, the Coalition’s SAM umbrella over Jordan may be fragmented and patchy; it would mean the Israeli air force can attack ground targets on the Jordanian front much more effectively than it can on the Golan.

  The situation is pretty much the same in Lebanon where two of Syria’s four armored divisions, pretty much the only troops Assad has left who are not on the Golan, came over the Lebanese border at 0212 without any opposition whatsoever and joined up with the paramilitary forces of the Shiite Hezbollah organization and the PLO. The Lebanese army, to the extent it even exists, is nowhere to be found.

  Chapter Sixteen

  It was still dark at five-thirty in the morning in Washington when I called in to the Situation Room and asked the aide who answered the phone to read me the agenda for the emergency meeting of the National Security Council scheduled to start in a few minutes. Sure enough, one of the first things on the agenda is Cairo and the Egyptians. Well that’s to be expected.

  Tommy Talbot and some of the other Council members were already in the Situation Room when I called. Tommy put me on the speaker phone and I was able to have an informal conversation with him and some of the other early arrivals until the P
resident came in. Everyone was curious about me being stuck in the embassy with Dorothy and what was happening here. Then the President came in and he was curious too.

  “Glad you could make it, General Roberts. We’ve been getting all kinds of reports about the situation in Cairo. According to the NSA intercepts and satellite photos, a big anti-Israel demonstration is underway at the Cairo embassy. You’re there so let’s talk about that first in case we get cut off.”

  “Thank you, sir. There is a demonstration underway and it seems huge. Fortunately the ambassador here, Ambassador Tolson, has a good head on his shoulders and we’re doing just fine. It could get sticky if whoever organized the crowd orders it to attack the embassy—but I do not foresee another political disaster such as Tehran even if they do. The Marines are on alert and can keep them out.”

  “Uh, General Roberts,” the President said, “Jack here, uh, Secretary Billaud I mean, thinks we should consider trying an evacuation in a few hours when the Enterprise gets close enough, being that there are a lot of women and civilians in the embassy and so forth. What is your opinion?”

  “I am totally opposed, sir. I think it would be a disastrous political mistake, possibly even worse than Tehran. Your administration cannot be seen to give up American territory and run just because a mob threatens us. If we learned anything from President Carter’s fiasco it is we must stand our ground when we are threatened or attacked. Our allies will be appalled and lose confidence in us if we do not, particularly the Israelis, Egyptians, and Saudis.”

  “Yes, of course, you’re probably right. But what do you think will happen if the embassy is attacked?”

  “Our Marine guards are quite competent and well-armed, Mr. President. And, frankly, it might be a good thing for our diplomats and embassies around the world if the mob does attack and suffers some casualties as a result. It would demonstrate our determination to stand up to the Islamic Coalition and its supporters. Stories in the media about an airlift of tanks and other supplies to the Israelis would help in that regard as well. It would be an important signal of our willingness to stand by the commitments we’ve made to our allies. An airlift should begin immediately if it hasn’t already begun.”

  “Okay,” the President agreed. “We won’t give up any embassies without a fight. What’s the latest on the military situation, General Talbot?”

  I shut my mouth and listened in the secure room of the Cairo embassy’s communications center as Tommy Talbot summarized the military’s view of the situation to the President and the hastily summoned Security Council. It was pretty much what NSA has been reporting and I’d already read in the initial reports.

  “If the Arabs erect a SAM umbrella and stay under it, Mr. President, it looks like it’s going to be a war of attrition on the Golan and Israel is going to take a lot of casualties.” Tommy’s right. So what are the Israelis going to do? And what are we going to do to help them?

  ****** Israeli Cabinet

  “Concentrate the attack squadrons and assault helicopters on the enemy armor and vehicles in Jordan and Lebanon,” was the order from the commander of the Israeli Air Force.

  The order had already gone out to all the Israeli squadrons and air controllers. It explained, the Israeli Air Force commander told us, why our air force and the army’s helicopters were not doing more to stop the enemy ground forces moving down the Golan towards Israel. NSA quickly picked up the Israeli Air Force commander’s explanation because the cabinet members, in turn, immediately began using their cell phones to discuss it with their party leaders and advisors.

  Israel’s air force commander was quoted in the Morning Report as explaining: “At the moment we’re concentrating on destroying the Islamic air forces and the armored columns they are trying to pass through Jordan and Lebanon to get to our borders. We can’t do much on the Golan at this time, because of all their SAMs and mobile launchers. All we can do is destroy their assets deployed elsewhere while the army holds them back on the Golan with its armor and artillery. We’ll switch back to the Golan when the Islamic armor comes out from under its missile umbrella.”

  What the briefer hadn’t told the cabinet was the full extent of Israel’s plane and helicopter losses to the SAMs and mobile launchers over the battlefield. The initial reports he’d received suggested Israeli losses were so large as to be almost unbelievable. He wanted the numbers rechecked before revealing them.

  ****** The Professor in Somalia

  I was in the headquarters van getting some air conditioning relief from the Somali heat when a call came in from the ministry on the satellite phone and I got new orders. The Boss is adamant. Despite the new war and the increased chance they’ll be spotted and destroyed because everyone’s become more alert, two of our four remaining remote control planes, the Fokker and one of the Anatovs, are to fly tonight if at all possible. If they both can’t get off tonight, they’re both to go tomorrow night. It seems, my contact explained with a shrug in his voice, the Boss wants the two targets hit at the same time. The targets themselves were no surprise. We’ve been planning for months to take them out.

  If both launches are successful we’ll have only one target left and two Anatov-12s to use against it. Hmm, maybe I can get a transport in here and send some of the men home. They’re all getting really antsy. Yes, that’s what I’ll do if it can be arranged. Only the guards and the men I need for the Anatovs will stay.

  “Okay,” I called out to the waiting men as I came out of the van. “Tonight we’re going with the Fokker and the Anatov we got from Zimbabwe. They go tonight if we can get them both started and out of here on time. If both of them can’t go out together tonight, they’ll go out together tomorrow. The boss wants them to have the same time on target.”

  There was a little cheer and a couple of the men literally ran to the planes. Both of them are here with us in the big hangar because we moved the Anatovs over from the other hangar as soon as the DC-6s left.

  I understand the cheers. We all want to get out of this godforsaken hole and this is a big step in the right direction. It’s boiling hot outside and damn near as bad in here despite the fans.

  Three hours later the minister himself called.

  “Professor, there is a call for you in the communications van. It’s the Minister, sir.”

  “Hello Minister.… Good thank you. And you? … Yes sir, we are getting them ready as we speak and so far everything seems to be working; we’re trying for tonight.… Yes sir, I will tell them… And has everyone been alerted that we will be flying in Saudi airspace for a couple of hours tonight? … Good. I’ll call and let you know the approximate times they’ll be in Saudi airspace.

  “Uh, minister, is there any chance we could get a transport plane in here to take out some of the men we no longer need. Many of them are anxious to join in...

  “Yes sir, I understand; but I’d appreciate it if you would try.”

  ****** General Roberts

  Outside the embassy the roaring of the crowd seemed to be getting louder and louder as I came out of the communications center and walked down the stairs to see how Dorothy is doing. She and a couple of the embassy staff are setting up a medical station in the embassy’s Marine barracks on the sixth floor. They’ll use the Marines’ cots as beds for our casualties and the Gunny’s private room as an operating theater. And she doesn’t look too happy when she saw me walk in carrying the M-16.

  We looked at each other and I started to say something when I heard the muffled “pop pop” of a couple of shots. I rushed down the hall to the side of the building where the shots sounded – and couldn’t see anything except the massive crowd on the other side of the walls. No one was in the totally deserted embassy courtyard. Just lots of paper and dust blowing around in the wind. Man that’s a bunch of people out there.

  People were talking excitedly as they hurried up and down between floors in the embassy’s inside stairwell, including a couple of bright eyed young Marines who bounded past me carrying M-16s
and going down two or three steps at a time shouting “coming through.”

  I followed the Marines down to the lobby and joined a group which included the army attaché, an FBI agent named Anderson, Gunny Rowkowski, the gunnery sergeant who commands the embassy’s Marines, and half a dozen or so of the enlisted Marines in the embassy’s Marine guard detachment. They were all staring nervously at the metal gates blocking the driveway up to the embassy entrance. Anderson is the embassy’s security attaché. He’s an FBI agent, and automatically in charge of the embassy’s defense by virtue of his seniority in the embassy’s legal office.

  “What’s up?” I asked Anderson.

  “One of the Marines reported the mob was bringing up a truck through the crowd. We think they’re going to crash the gates.”

  “Crash the gates? Well what the fuck are you doing standing around in here?”

  “Holy shit. Come on Marines there’s no time to waste,” I said it over my shoulder as I jacked a round into my weapon and headed for the door. It was locked but it clicked open and released when I pushed down hard on the bar.

  The Marines poured out after me. So did the three military attachés. Agent Anderson just stood there with his mouth open, totally clueless as to what to do. He wasn’t even armed.

  “Gunny,” I shouted as I pointed and ran, “take some of your Marines over there by the corner of the building. Send the rest to me over here. There’ll be a mob pouring in behind the truck if it hits the gates. We’re not surrendering. President’s orders. Use your weapons and cut down everyone who comes on the embassy grounds. Don’t fire at anyone who isn’t on the embassy grounds.” Well they’d be the President’s orders if I could get through to him.

  I gave the orders to the Gunny in a loud command voice so everyone could hear me.

  The Marines and I had barely gotten out of the embassy front door when there was a big crashing bang and lots of flying debris and dust as a commandeered produce truck smashed into the front gate and lurched to a halt between the gate posts with its front half in the embassy grounds. Its smashed radiator was spouting steam.