Israel's Next War

by Martin Archer

  Everything changed for us again right after we got past Zahleh. The battalion has a new assignment. Instead of continuing on down the Valley to rejoin the brigade, we’ve been ordered to stop at the crossroads and block the road that runs between Damascus and Beirut. So long as we block the crossroads and the Eighth Brigade blocks the coastal road and the northern entrance to the Bekka Valley, Lebanon will be totally cut off from Syria and the Islamist Coalition.

  Sami moved quickly. He sent one company in each direction from the crossroads. Ezra Company, along with the battalion headquarters and the two mobile SAM batteries, will remain in the center of things at the crossroads and act as a mobile reserve.

  My company, Bravo Company, and our remaining eleven tanks and three APCs are to move back a little ways up the road towards Zahleh and find a good place to cover the northern approach. It’s our job to intercept any enemy forces who might try to follow us down the Bekka Valley from the north.

  That’s the best possible position for the company from my point of view—because it looks to be the safest since the Eighth Brigade is north of us blocking the entrance to the Valley.

  This is a good assignment, I told my crew. It means any Syrian troops and tanks coming south will have to get past the Christian militia at Zahleh before they can get to us. More importantly, before they can even get to Zahleh they’ll have to get past the 8th brigade which has taken our battalion’s old blocking position from the crossroads at Shin Shar to the coastal highway.

  Sami is right—having the entire 8th Brigade on the road between Shin Shar and the coast is three ways good. It blocks the entrance to the Bekka Valley, it cuts the coastal highway into Lebanon, and it cuts the road between Homs, Aleppo and Damascus, Syria’s three biggest cities.

  ******

  There was a lot of cheering and high fives and handshakes a few minutes ago when Sami came up on the battalion net and explained what happened south of us this morning.

  Damn, I might live through this after all.

  According to Sami, the Syrians and Hezbollah dug in facing Israel along the Litani river spent the last forty-eight hours on the receiving end of a truly massive artillery barrage coming out of Israel. Then their survivors were totally surprised when the barrage suddenly stopped a couple of hours ago and our Brigade’s tanks and APCs, all of them except us, came charging out of the Valley behind them and began rolling up their lines along the river. According to Sami, our brigade’s casualties were light and the two Syrian divisions and the Hezbollah on the Litani have been totally destroyed—they were dug in facing the wrong direction.

  We’ve got Lebanon and the Hezbollah, as an ecstatic Sami so quaintly put it, "by the balls."

  Chapter Twenty-seven

  Today’s big story in this morning’s major newspapers, according to the Morning Report, is not the war, it’s the oil slick spreading out over the Persian Gulf as a result of the tanker sinkings and damage to the Iranian loading facilities and tank farms. It actually is a pretty bad spill—the oil around Kharg Island alone is already more than twenty times the size of the Exxon Valdez spill according to the New York Times; and it’s growing rapidly as more and more oil leaks out of the sunken and damaged tankers.

  A news crew from the new Al Jazeera news network claims to have taken their lives in their hands and flown down the Gulf to document the sizes of the various major spills. One of their pictures in this morning’s newspapers is a satellite photo showing oil already covering a large part of the Gulf and a picture of an oiled seagull. The article claims it’s the biggest oil spill in history by at least a factor of twenty.

  We obviously have an environmentalist working for NSA—it’s the same NSA photo that appeared in the Morning Report.

  And, of course, by mid-morning environmentalists and lesser Hollywood “celebrities” began appearing on the Sunday talk shows and earnestly calling for a peace conference so the waters in the Gulf can be cleaned up, as one well-known actress explains, “to save the Persian Gulf seagulls.”

  The Israeli ambassador to the United Nations also appeared on several of the talk shows and had the best response even if it didn’t exactly address the issue.

  “It’s hard to take anyone seriously who thinks saving seagulls is more important than saving women and children whose murders would have been financed by the sale of the oil.”

  ******

  There was even bigger news that came in too late to make the Sunday papers or the Morning Book. It was read to me by the duty officer and I immediately called the President at Camp David where he was spending the weekend. He, in turn, decided that we should not wait until Monday morning for a Security Council teleconference to discuss the situation.

  China is the problem. It seems some of the tankers the Israelis destroyed a couple of nights ago were loading Iranian crude oil bound for China. According to the NSA intercepts, the new Chinese Party Chairman and President, Zheng Jun, is not a happy camper about the situation. He is going to leave Beijing in a couple of hours to fly to New York to speak at the United Nations debate on China’s motion to censure Israel for destroying the chartered tankers which were loading China’s oil.

  China’s backing the Coalition? No way; not when they are losing.

  More significantly, according to the listeners and hackers at the National Security Agency, when he arrives Chairman Zheng is going to announce that China has rerouted two Chinese navy destroyers which have been making goodwill visits to various ports in Western Africa. He is going to say the destroyers will continue on to the Gulf and be permanently stationed there to protect tankers carrying oil to China. Tommy Talbot says they’ll reach the entrance to the Gulf sometime tomorrow afternoon.

  “This is significant,” I told the President at the hastily called meeting at the White House. “China has never done anything like this before. It’s an effort to change the balance of power in the Middle East and regain some of the stature China lost in its recent war with Russia.”

  “So how do you think we should react?” the President asked.

  Various possible responses were suggested. The Secretary of State recommended the President call the Prime Minister and strongly suggest Israel withdraw from the Gulf to avoid triggering a conflict with China. That’s silly. It sends exactly the wrong message.

  “I totally disagree with you, Jack,” I responded. “That’s not at all the message we want to send. China sees Israel as one of our client states. The Chinese are testing us, not Israel. We’d be better off if one of the Chinese destroyers tries to visit one of the Iranian or Iraqi ports and the Israelis sink it. So long as it is the Israelis who do it, our hands will be clean for future negotiations and we’ll be signaling strength and resolve instead of weakness and a willingness to abandon one of our most steadfast allies during its time of need.”

  That triggered a lot of discussion—and the President just listened and ate chocolate M&Ms.

  ****** General Christopher Roberts

  Early Monday morning I was in my office reading the Morning Book and preparing once again for another 0700 Security Council meeting. The Israelis are continuing to do quite well militarily and the news is full of commentary, speculation, and quotes about today’s emergency meeting of the Security Council and the presence of the Chinese president.

  It seems the Israelis finished off what was left of the Coalition Air Force yesterday and have been unleashing massive nonstop artillery barrages against the Syrians on the Litani and the Coalition forces in front of the Golan.

  I know the NSA intercepts are right. I came in early because Dick Evans was patched through to me at home a little after three this morning. He says the Israeli artillery is amazing with its non-stop firing. He says they’re even making extremely fast tube changes in the field when the artillery barrels wear out; like “pit stops" to change tires in a car race.

  Sunday was another big day for the Israelis I told the President and the Security Council about an hour later. It started three days ago w
hen Israel stripped away all its mobile artillery which had been positioned in front of the Egyptians. The Israelis quickly began using some it to launch a sustained artillery bombardment on the Syrians along the Litani and the rest to suppress the Syrian and Iranian units in front of the Golan. The barrage continued nonstop on the Litani for more than thirty-six hours and was still pulverizing the Iranians and Syrians on the Golan. Their ammunition reserves must have been immense; good planning for sure.

  Everything changed this morning at about 0500 for the two Syrian divisions on the Litani. The Israeli artillery stop hitting them just before dawn as an Israel brigade, the Third according to the intercepts, the one that made the big circular move through Jordan and Syria, came roaring down the Bekka Valley road and rolled over what was left of the Syrians like a bowling ball mowing down the pins. It was brilliant. It really was.

  Similarly, I told the President and the Council members, it now appears two more brigades and five additional battalions of self-propelled 155mm artillery from the Sinai were added to the Israeli forces in front of the Golan a couple of days ago. They’ve been continuing a massive bombardment of the Syrians and Iranians around the clock for the past sixty hours and have totally stopped the Syrians and Iranians who, up until then, had been slowly advancing behind their infantry.

  According to the call I got from Dick Evans last night, Israeli transportation companies with female drivers are bringing the ammunition right up to the guns and it might well be the longest and most intense artillery bombardment in history. Maybe he’s exaggerating but I got his drift and it seems to be working.

  And maybe the Israelis had an even bigger day yesterday than I initially thought: I was standing at the big wall map briefing the President and the Security Council on the significance of the Israeli move down the Bekka when an aide walked in and handed a message to Arlie Fletcher. He’s the retired navy admiral who is the NSA director. Everything stopped and we all watched as Arlie’s eyes widened as he read it—then read it again.

  When I nodded to yield the floor to him, he read it to us while I stood there at the map. It’s quite significant: NSA’s analysts now think it might be the Syrians who have been blowing up the nuclear facilities and the Israelis intend to hit the reactor the French are helping the Syrians build at Dayr az Zawr sometime in the next few days. It sure sounds that way from one of the Israeli cabinet meeting intercepts the Admiral read to us.

  “…. we’re not going to allow Syria to destroy everyone else’s reactors so the Assad family can use theirs to dominate the Middle East.”

  It got the Secretary of State all excited. I could almost see the visions of talk shows and press conferences dancing in Jack’s eyes as he advised the President.

  “We must stop them Mr. President. Allowing nuclear reactors to be blown up sets a terrible precedent.”

  “But what is the message you want to send, Jack?” I asked softly. “Is it that we’ve turned against Israel by warning the Syrians that the Israelis intend to blow up their reactor or is it that Syria is responsible for the other reactor explosions or is it that we don’t approve of blowing up nuclear reactors even if they’re being used to make bombs to drop on us and our allies?”

  “It doesn’t matter. Think of the pollution. What if someone blows up one of our nuclear plants?”

  “It matters a lot, Jack,” I replied with more than a little hostility in my voice. “We’re talking about a rogue nuclear program in the hands of a family of psychotic killers. We should be happy about what Israel intends to do and keep our mouths shut if Israel is going to help us by removing a threat to the United States.” And that’s going to be hard for you, isn’t it?

  The Secretary started to reply when Admiral Fletcher cut in.

  “It doesn’t matter which of you two is right. We absolutely cannot contact the Israelis or talk about it publically. If we do, the Israelis will know we’ve penetrated their communications.”

  I nodded my head in agreement and so did the President and Tommy Talbot. But I’m not at all sure the Admiral’s right. About our having penetrated their communications, that is.

  ******

  I was sitting at my desk watching the United Nations debate later that day when Peter knocked on the door jam and walked in. The debate was interesting. The Syrians just changed their tune and are now asking for an immediate ceasefire.

  The Syrians obviously caught their allies by surprise—the looks of surprise on the faces of the Iraqi and Iranian ambassadors were priceless.

  Peter’s news is important.

  “General, an alert just came in from the embassy in Tel Aviv. Israel’s Army Radio is reporting that early this morning elements of its Airborne Brigade attacked and captured Syria’s Dayr az Zawr nuclear plant on the Euphrates River. They say they took it intact. There are also unconfirmed reports that another large Israeli armored column, at least three additional brigades of armor and maybe more, crossed into Syria early this morning with all of their armor on tank carriers. It appears to be heading towards Dayr az-Zawr to relieve the Israeli airborne forces who took the Syrian nuclear plant – and two more brigades will be coming out of Israel to follow it as soon as the tank carriers return.”

  That’s funny—why would they need so much armor to do that?

  “Uh oh. Bring me that map over there will ya, please Annie … Thanks” Holy shit.

  “Uh, Annie, will you see if you can get Admiral Fletcher or his deputy on the phone. I’ll hold.

  “Arlie, it’s Chris Roberts. Sorry to bother you. But do you have anything current on Israel’s Second, Sixth, Eleventh, and 211th Brigades? Where they’re at and where they’re headed?”

  Damn, I think they’re really going to do it.

  ******

  China’s two destroyers, the Red Wind and the Admiral Shi Lang, were near the Gulf because they’ve been in Africa to make an impression and show the world that the Russians did not entirely destroy the Chinese navy. And they have been making an impression. They are, after all, the newest and finest of the Chinese ships that survived the war with Russia and they’ve been visiting ports rarely visited by the ships of any other navy.

  The two Chinese destroyers entered the Persian Gulf without incident a little before four in the afternoon. They had quite a media escort in chartered helicopters and planes as they followed a Liberian flagged supertanker heading up the Gulf to the huge Saudi oil terminal at Ras Tanura.

  We watched their arrival in the Gulf on a TV set in the Situation Room. The media reports, while they lasted, repeatedly showed footage of the Chinese destroyers, various damaged tankers, and of ships coming and going in the Gulf. The news readers breathlessly noted over and over again that this is the Chinese navy’s first venture into the Gulf and repeatedly explained the Chinese government is sending them to the Gulf to protect ships loaded with oil for China. In other words, the media coverage quickly became rather boring. The most exciting event was a near collision between a Cessna chartered by Reuters’ and a CNN helicopter.

  What the media could find no trace of and never did mention was the Israeli navy. Little wonder the Israeli surface ships couldn’t be found—they are hiding in plain sight; most of them are tied up at the Saudi naval docks at Jubail.

  Israel’s submarines also can’t be found because last night they moved into positions near various Iranian ports and the Iraqi oil terminal at Basra. Presently they are motionless, resting quietly on the bottom near the damaged and destroyed tankers—with the doors of their torpedo tubes already open.

  About five in the afternoon the Admiral Shi Lang entered what was left of the big Iranian terminal at Kharg Island without an Iranian pilot aboard. The Chinese had no pilot because there were no helicopters or patrol boats left to carry a pilot out to the Chinese ship. The Admiral Shi Lang slowly moved through the heavily oiled water and passed along the stricken tankers—and promptly struck what Saudi Arabia’s defense minister immediately said was an Iranian mine. In any event, the Shi Lang
sank almost immediately in the approach channel despite the desperate efforts of its crew to save it and the near collision of two news helicopters filming its sinking and the rescue efforts.

  The Red Wind immediately rushed to the aid of its stricken sister ship—and it too hit an Iranian mine and began to sink. The American news media became even more excited and numerous military experts and hairstylists were called in on an emergency basis.

  I heard about the Chinese destroyers hitting the mines and the quick Saudi explanation while I was watching the TV set in my office and waiting for my call to Tel Aviv to go through.

  “Our coast guard even hailed them and warned them about the mines,” the Saudi defense minister was saying as I turned up the volume. Mines my ass.

  Chapter Twenty-eight

  ****** The Iraqi Lieutenant Colonel

  Something was wrong. I knew it as soon as I walked into Supreme Headquarters. There were no briefers on the little stage and everywhere there were little groups of anxious officers huddled together talking and waving their hands. I immediately sought out one of my fellow Iraqis, a colonel who was hurrying towards the front door carrying a cardboard box.

  “What’s going on?” I ask him.

  “Haven’t you heard?” he whispered as he hurried past me. “BBC is reporting that Israel has won the war and the Iranian and Iraqi nuclear facilities and all their oil terminals have been totally destroyed, leaving Syria as the only Islamic country with an intact nuclear program.” Impossible.

  That’s when I looked around the huge reception area and into the briefing room and realized there were hardly any Iraqi officers in sight, just Iranians and Syrians running this way and that. Then I saw a couple of Iraqi officers, concerned-looking infantry majors in battledress. They were standing in the hallway by the coffee shop and talking heatedly when I ran up to them and asked them what was going on. They said they didn’t know; they’d just arrived from what was left of the front and were looking for someone to tell them what to do. What was left of the front?