Israel's Next War

by Martin Archer

  I’m bushed. I didn’t sleep very well on the plane and this morning’s meeting with the Turkish generals was intense.

  ******

  Today’s lunch with General Demir was in a small and luxurious wood paneled private dining area next to a larger dining area in the military headquarters. We avoided having to pass through the larger dining room by using a private elevator and hallway. General Demir and four senior generals were already in the private dining room and talking as I walked in with Brigadier Polat and my interpreter. My two Secret Service agents walked in ahead of me to look at the room and then came back out to wait at the door.

  General Demir watched with a satisfied look on his face as the four generals immediately snuffed out their cigarettes and came forward with their hands extended and introduced themselves. I watched out of the corner of my eye as Alkan gave a respectful bow and retired. Good. We are going to have a serious and confidential meeting.

  “General Roberts,” the Commander of the Turkish Air Force, a relatively short silver-haired man with intense eyes and pilot’s wings, said in fluent American English, “General Demir has briefed us about your discussions earlier today. As you might imagine, we find your ideas quite intriguing. What more can you tell us?” His English is excellent; we won’t need interpreters.

  Instead of answering I smiled a nod of acknowledgement to him and looked back at George, and then nodded towards the door.

  “Thank you George, I should have known we would not need your services this afternoon. Please take the rest of the afternoon off and meet me back at the hotel at seven this evening.”

  I instantly sensed the generals’ approval of the move. They are an interesting group and they’re apprehensive because they’re sailing in uncharted waters. They look like the tough and streetwise types who would rise to the top in a sometime democracy—one that every so often gets taken over and run by the military for a while when its generals don’t like what the politicians are doing.

  I waited to respond until we were alone. Then I spoke in a friendly and self-deprecating voice.

  “General, I wish I could take credit for the ideas because they would seem to make good sense for both your country and mine—but I can’t. They originated in Israel and, whether the United States likes it or not, the Israelis appear to be seriously determined to implement them. We think they are very interesting and worth serious consideration.” I was being diplomatic. I could have said ’whether Turkey likes it or not.’

  They all gave little nods understanding even before the Air Force commander repeated what I said; good, they all speak English somewhat and got the message.

  Then, after a pause while he translated, I continued. I’ll have to remember to speak slowly. He probably wouldn’t be translating if they were all totally fluent in English.

  “America’s government likes what we think the Israelis are going to do. I emphasized the word ’think.’ In fact, we like it very much even though they have not officially informed us of their intentions.” I spoke slowly and watched the reactions.

  Good they are fluent. I was pretty sure they would be since Turkey is in NATO and English is NATO’s official language. Then I continued.

  “If the Israelis are doing what we think they are doing, it’s bold and imaginative and would seem to provide substantial military and civilian benefits for two of America’s most important allies—Turkey and Israel.” Substantial benefits for the Turkish military? That should get their interest!

  “As you know, I’m going directly from here to Israel later this evening to talk to the Israeli Prime Minister. I’m here before I head off to Israel because I would like to get your input and suggestions before I talk to the Israelis about their plans for the future.”

  “Because the United States considers Turkey an important ally, we would like to see the changes we think the Israelis are going to impose on the Middle East benefit Turkey as well as Israel.” So far I’m merely repeating what I told General Demir this morning. They’ve undoubtedly heard it before.

  Then as I unfolded the rolled up map I was carrying, I said “here is what we think the Israelis are going to do after they win.” I emphasized the word “think” even though I’m pretty certain.

  ******

  Almost two hours later I rolled up the map and we put our dishes and silverware back into place. They had been hastily pushed aside so we could spread the map out. Food had been forgotten and undoubtedly gotten cold while we talked. All at once everyone seemed to realize that we were all hungry and needed to take a break to use the toilets.

  We all marched together down the hall to the spotless toilets and they graciously bowed me in to take my choice. It was a great relief.

  ******

  So far it has been a productive meeting. At first the five Turkish generals sat there almost speechless as I explained. They could hardly believe it when I began by sharing the latest NSA and CIA reports—that the planes and armor of Iraq, Iran, and Syria have been almost totally destroyed and the first of what we think will be several large and fast-moving Israeli armor columns have already passed through Syria virtually unmolested and crossed into southern Iraq. Their eyes widened when I said the Israelis were coming with more than a thousand modern tanks and massive numbers of armored personnel carriers, support vehicles, and assault helicopters.

  They were further shocked when I told them that last night helicopter-riding Israeli assault teams took the Syrian nuclear plant at Dayr as Zwar and bridges over the Tigris and Euphrates River. What really shocked them most of all, however, is when they heard that this morning a fast moving Israeli column crossed the Euphrates and was presently approaching the outskirts of Mosul in force with three brigades of armor and over twelve hundred tanks and APCs.

  What made the Turkish officers angry and thoughtful was when I told them it appears the Israelis intend to make deals with the Kurds, Druze, Turkomens, Yazidis, and Christians—to arm them to the teeth with modern weapons and recognize their independent states. Israel will recognize them and arm them, I said, in an effort to permanently reduce the power and prestige of Israel’s and Turkey’s mutual enemies—the Islamic countries presently on Turkey’s borders.

  Actually I’m sticking my neck out on this all by myself—there is no “we.” The Israelis haven’t said what they will do if they win the war. It’s just my opinion and that of the President.

  In essence, I explain to the Turkish generals as I leaned forward to emphasize the point, Israel appears to be getting ready to provide arms and make mutual defense deals with the Kurds and other minorities along your border in order to reduce the size and power of its enemies. In so doing, it will establish buffer states between the Islamic world and Europe with Turkey as part of Europe .

  The five generals listened carefully and became visibly angry and upset, all of them, when I said I thought it almost certain the Israeli armor, mobile missile launchers, and helicopter gunships will be turned over to the Iraqi and Syrian Kurds, and maybe even the Iranian Kurds.

  Of course they will. Most of the Israelis are reservists and the Israeli government will be under great pressure to quickly bring them home. The Israeli government isn’t taking all those tanks and equipment to Kirkuk and Erbil and beyond just to turn around and drive them back the way they came. And will they stop at Kirkuk and Erbil? I wouldn’t stop and I don’t think the Israelis will either.

  The possibility that Israel will arm the Kurds and recognize their territorial claims bothered the five generals the most. There are millions of Kurds in the mountains of Turkey along its eastern borders and they have constantly been agitating for independence and the use of the Kurdish language in their schools. The Turkish army is particularly determined not to allow a single inch of what’s left of Turkey be lost to a newly established Kurdistan.

  “This means another war with the Kurds,” the Deputy Chief of Staff, General Osman, thundered. He is the tall hook nosed deputy chief of staff who has seemed to be angry about
something ever since I arrived.

  “We will never tolerate an independent Kurdistan on our borders, let alone allow our own Kurdish districts to join it.”

  “I understand your concerns,” I respond. “They are reasonable and understandable.”

  And then I provided the clincher as I looked at them intently and slowly and emphatically asked “but what if you are able to influence the Israelis so the new Kurdish states and the Christian and Druze states, and their oil and water, become part of a greater Turkish empire as autonomous states of Turkey instead of autonomous provinces of Iraq, Syria, and Iran?” I said the words “Turkish empire” and “their oil and gas” very slowly and emphatically.

  I waited for a few seconds and then presented my key argument to close the deal.

  “Isn’t the return of the Ottoman states lost after World War One, including those where languages other than Turkish are spoken, exactly what General Ataturk and the army wanted?”

  I could see the wheels turning in their minds as the five Turkish generals, almost as one, turned away from watching me speak and stared thoughtfully at the map. Then one after another they began nodding.

  “It would change everything,” agreed the Deputy Chief of Staff.

  Now let’s eat. I’m starved.

  Chapter Thirty

  My trip back to the hotel after our unexpectedly long luncheon meeting involved an even bigger and more intense escort than last time and an even friendlier send off by all five of the generals and their hovering and obviously curious staffs.

  I bet rumors are really flying. I wonder what the generals will tell their staffs and how soon it will get out?

  Both Evans and Duffy, and their two Israeli escorts in civilian clothes, were waiting in the hotel’s ornate old lobby. They all jumped to attention as I walked into the lobby with my Secret Service and Turkish minders—all of whom eyed them suspiciously and didn’t relax until I returned their salutes and warmly shook their hands.

  Then Dick introduced me to Si and Solly. It’s the first time I’ve actually met the two older Israelis who are helping them. Good. They look as steady and reliable as Dick said they are.

  Dick and Harry were in their summer uniforms and the Israelis in normal Israeli civilian wear—slacks and open neck shirts to display the gray hair on their chests.

  For some reason I had expected all four of them to show up in Israeli battledress and combat boots, but each obviously made a special trip back to his home to change into civilian clothes. It was totally unnecessary and all my fault. When I asked Dick to try to bring Si and Solly I should have also said all four of them should bring their Israeli fatigues and field gear with them. One thing’s for sure. Although they don’t know it yet, where they’re going they sure won’t be wearing their summer dress uniforms and shiny shoes.

  Hmm. I think I’ll call Ari’s office tonight and ask him to send some fatigues and field gear for them on the next El Al flight. I need to speak with him anyhow.

  “It’s good to see you guys. Come on up to my room and fill me in.”

  ******

  Listening to the stories of what Evans and Duffy and the two Israelis had seen and experienced on the Golan Heights filled me with a great deal of nostalgia for my days as a soldier. I miss it and I wish to hell I were going into Iraq with them instead of sending them.

  God, I never felt so alive as on the battlefield when every second might be my last.

  After I heard their reports I told Dick and his men to relax and enjoy themselves until tomorrow morning. Then I had my Turkish military convoy take me on a quick trip back to the embassy to meet with the CIA station chief, pick up the latest Morning Book updates, and exchange information with Peter. Peter is going to arrange for a plane to be standing by to fly me to Tel Aviv whenever I want to go.

  While I was at the embassy I used the secure line to call the offices of both the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister to let them know I’ll probably be back in Israel in the morning and urgently need to talk to them. I also mentioned the possibility of one or more senior Turkish officers coming with me.

  After I explained why I needed to meet with the two Israeli leaders, I asked Ari’s aide to please send someone to get a couple of sets of Israeli battledress, boots, and field gear from each of the team members’ homes—and send it on the next El Al flight to Ankara along with a couple of extra sets of Israeli boots and battledress for Si and Solly.

  Then it was back to the hotel and long phone calls to Dorothy and to the kids and grandkids.

  ******

  About six the next morning one of my Secret Service guys, Russ Meekins, took a taxi to the embassy to pick up the latest intelligence updates. The updates were waiting when I woke up and I read them while I sat at the rather shabby little desk in my suite and ate a room service breakfast all by myself. In a few minutes my convoy will take me back to the Turkish headquarters for more discussions. The Turkish generals, I am sure, will have a lot of questions. So do I, for that matter. Evans and his men will stand by at the hotel until I return.

  Once again the Turks took me to their headquarters in an impressive convoy. The same five generals greeted me and they certainly looked more alert than I felt.

  I’m tired. I woke up in the middle of the night and couldn’t get back to sleep. It was still evening in the States so I called Dorothy again and then sort of napped and daydreamed in bed until it was time to get up.

  The generals and I got right to it while we drank strong coffee and just about everybody except me smoked. The Turks certainly have a lot of concerns and considerations about the details but they seem to be totally on board with the basic idea of a Turkish empire reconstituted as a commonwealth with a string of totally autonomous provinces acting as buffer states between Europe and the Islamic world.

  I haven’t had coffee in years; I’m probably going to be wired and jumpy all day.

  General Demir and the rest of the “gang of five” as I have come to think of them, were interested to know two of my military aides, a lieutenant colonel and a major, had arrived in Ankara from Tel Aviv. What interested the generals even more was that my aides had arrived with two retired Israeli officers to act as translators when my aides meet the Israelis in Iraq. They were also surprised when I asked them to help get Dick and his team to Erbil in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq and then on to Kirkuk. Kirkuk, I told them, appears to be the destination of the Israeli columns.

  Actually I’m beginning to think the Israelis intend to continue on into Iran, probably because I would if I were them.

  My men need to get there, I explained, to make contact with the heads of the Barzani and Talabani clans, the leaders of the Iraqi Kurds. Also, I explained, I want Evans and his men to get a feel for the conditions and relationships on the ground between the two major Iraqi Kurdish groups and between them and Baghdad.

  The relationship between Baghdad and the Kurds is sure to be affected by the rapidly approaching Israeli arming of the Kurds; but how?

  The Turkish generals were adamant—trying to get to Erbil or Kirkuk by air is a non-starter because of the war and because the airports periodically change hands between competing Kurdish factions – “some of those people are quite paranoid and dangerous.”

  Even going in overland is dangerous, the Turkish generals told me; less dangerous than flying but still dangerous. It’s the same information I received yesterday evening from Bill Dorsey, the head of the local CIA station.

  Dorsey had been full of information.

  “There is a low level civil war constantly raging in the Kurdish districts both between the various Kurdish factions and between the Kurds in general and both the Sunni militias and the Shiite government of Rahman Majid in Baghdad,” Dorsey told me.

  “Majid’s problems are much worse than ours here,” he said. “The Sunnis are getting restless once again and there is open warfare between Baghdad and the Kurds. And it’s going to get worse when the Kurds realize how weak Iraq, Iran,
and Syria are as a result of losing the war.

  “Everyone over there is always suspicious of anyone coming over the border and quick on the trigger. With the Kurds once again in open rebellion against Baghdad it’s going to be ten times as dangerous.”

  Despite the danger, both General Demir and General Osman were enthusiastic about my suggestion that a Turkish officer accompany Evans and Duffy and the two Israelis into Iraq. We agreed it should be an officer who speaks both English and Kurdish. We also agreed it must be someone who will be able to hold his own if a dangerous situation develops.

  Demir obviously has his own intelligence sources in Iraq, and probably a lot of them, but he’s obviously as anxious to know the current state of the relations on the ground between the Kurds and the Israelis as I am. Little wonder. Turkey’s Kurds have been engaged in a constant low level civil war with the Turkish army for years. According to the Turks, the Kurds use the Kurdish districts of Iraq and Syria as safe havens whenever the Turkish military cracks down—and flee to the Kurdish districts of Turkey when Baghdad and Damascus crack down.

  We spent the morning talking about borders, autonomy, garrisons, oil, water, and a long list of the other issues and considerations that will have to be worked out before any kind of comprehensive deal can be finalized. By the time we sat down for another lunch together my head was full of things I’d never thought of before today.

  What is interesting is the Turks have totally accepted the idea Israel is going to win and this time Israel isn’t going to stop until its enemies are permanently crippled—probably because it’s what they’d do and so would I.

  ******

  After lunch the Turks once again convoyed me back to the American embassy so I could pick up the latest intelligence reports and check in with Washington on a secure line. Someone must have said something because this time our convoy was waved through the gate and allowed to drive all the way up to the embassy entrance. Just as well; a light rain is falling.