The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change
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230 year 2000 are projected to live past the age of 100
“Most Babies Born Today May Live Past 100,” ABC News, October 1, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/Health/WellnessNews/half-todays-babies-expected-live-past-100/story?id=8724273.
231 will live to be more than 104
Ibid.
232 less than thirty years; some believe much less
Nicholas Wade, “Genetic Data and Fossil Evidence Tell Differing Tales of Human Origins,” New York Times, July 27, 2012; Sonia Arrison, “Average Life Expectancy Through History,” Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2011.
233 but not until the middle of the nineteenth century
Arrison, “Average Life Expectancy Through History.”
234 and in most industrial countries are now in the high seventies
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision; Arrison, “Average Life Expectancy Through History.”
235 aged sixty-five and older within the next quarter century
Ted C. Fishman, “As Populations Age, a Chance for Younger Nations,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2010.
236 and by 2050 fully one third of Chinese will be sixty or older
Ibid.; Joseph Chamie, former director of the United Nations Population Division, “The Battle of the Billionaires: China vs. India,” Globalist, October 4, 2010.
237 percentage of the elderly will still be half that in China
Chamie, “The Battle of the Billionaires: China vs. India.”
238 the Japanese bought more adult diapers than baby diapers
Sam Jones and Ben McLannahan, “Hedge Funds Say Shorting Japan Will Work,” Financial Times, November 29, 2012.
239 increase from twenty-eight today to forty by midcentury
Ibid.
240 contributed to the pressures that resulted in the French Revolution
NPR, “In Arab Conflicts, the Young Are the Restless,” NPR, February 8, 2012, http://www.npr.org/2011/02/09/133567583/in-arab-conflicts-the-young-are-the-restless.
241 majority of the revolutions in developing countries
Jack Goldstone, “Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict,” Journal of International Affairs 56 (2002).
242 coincided with the young adulthood of the post–World War II
Kenneth Weiss, “Runaway Population Growth Often Fuels Youth-Driven Uprisings,” Los Angeles Times, July 22, 2012.
243 twice the rate of countries generally
“In Arab Conflicts, the Young Are the Restless,” NPR.
244 have been in nations with youth bulges
“The Hazards of Youth,” WorldWatch, October 2004.
245 during a period of food price hikes around the world
Joseph Chamie, “A ‘Youth Bulge’ Feeds Arab Discontent,” Daily Star, April 15, 2011; Ashley Fantz, “Tunisian on Life One Year Later: No Fear,” CNN, December 16, 2011, http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/16/world/meast/tunisia-immolation-anniversary/index.html.
246 number of jobs available to them is exceptionally low
Madawi Al-Rasheed, “Yes, It Could Happen Here: Why Saudi Arabia Is Ripe for Revolution,” Foreign Policy, February 28, 2011.
247 will reach only 40 by midcentury
Fishman, “As Populations Age, a Chance for Younger Nations.”
248 fertility of immigrant populations
Ibid.
249 population of developed countries to 10 percent
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “Trends in International Migrant Stock: Migrants by Age and Sex,” http://esa.un.org/MigAge/index.asp?panel=8; United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs, “Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2008 Revision,” July 2009, http://www.un.org/esa/population/migration/UN_MigStock_2008.pdf.
250 increase from 7.2 percent twenty years earlier
Ibid.
251 moved from one region to another inside countries
Fiona Harvey, “Climate Change Could Trap Hundreds of Millions in Disaster Areas, Report Claims,” Guardian, October 20, 2011.
252 developing country to developed regions of the world
Report of the Secretary-General, United Nations General Assembly, “International Migration and Development,” May 18, 2006.
253 “are about as numerous as those moving ‘South-to-North’ ”
Ibid.
254 including Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Algeria
Anne-Sophie Labadie, “Greek Far-Right Rise Cows Battered Immigrants,” Daily Star, May 25, 2012.
255 the trans-Caucasus region, where there are significant Muslim populations
Atryom Liss, “Neo-Nazi Skinheads Jailed in Russia for Racist Killings,” BBC, February 25, 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8537861.stm; Mansur Mirovalev, “Russia: Far-Right Nationalists and Neo-Nazis March in Moscow,” Associated Press, November 4, 2011.
256 three quarters of them have less than one million people
Report of the Secretary-General, “International Migration and Development.”
257 make up 10 percent of the population or more
United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs, “Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2008 Revision.”
258 2,100-mile-long, 2.5-meter-high iron fence
Kurt M. Campbell et al., “The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, November 2007, http://www.climateactionproject.com/docs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf.
259 a surge of internal migration from low-lying coastal areas and offshore islands
Ibid.
260 in the Bay of Bengal, where four million people currently live
Ibid.
261 population of Bangladesh
Ibid.
262 even though it has only 5 percent of the world’s population
Global Migration Group, “International Migration and Human Rights,” October 2008, http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/home/opendocPDFViewer.html?docid=49e479cf0&query=migration.
263 outnumbered Caucasian babies for the first time
Conor Dougherty and Miriam Jordan, “Minority Births Are New Majority,” Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2012.
264 experts as a major factor causing the surge of hate groups
Colleen Curry, “Hate Groups Grow as Racial Tipping Point Changes Demographics,” ABC News, May 18, 2012, http://abcnews.go.com/US/militias-hate-groups-grow-response-minority-population-boom/story?id=16370136#.T7Zy1O2I3dl.
265 “nation’s population growth in the decade that ended in 2010”
Sabrina Tavernise, “Whites Account for Under Half of Births in U.S.,” New York Times, May 17, 2012.
266 as the number of Hispanic and Asian children increased by 5.5 million
William H. Frey, “America’s Diverse Future: Initial Glimpses at the U.S. Child Population from the 2010 Census,” Brookings Institution, April 6, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/0406_census_diversity_frey.aspx.
267 Hispanics at 26 percent and African Americans at 22 percent
William H. Frey, “Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs: Racial and Ethnic Change in Metro America in the 2000s,” Brookings Institution, May 4, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/0504_census_ethnicity_frey.aspx.
268 represent the largest minority group in the United States
Dennis Cauchon and Paul Overberg, “Census Data Shows Minorities Now a Majority of U.S. Births,” USA Today, May 17, 2012.
269 bombing of the federal office building in Oklahoma City
Brian Levin, “U.S. Hate and Extremist Groups Hit Record Levels, New Report Says,” Huffington Post, March 8, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brian-levin-jd/hate-groups-splc_b_1331318.html.
270 renewed upsurge in 2009–12
Ibid.
271 “precisely coinciding with Obama’s first three years as president”
Curry, �
�Hate Groups Grow as Racial Tipping Point Changes Demographics.”
272 immigration from several other countries has continued
Jeffrey Passel, D’Vera Cohn, and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, Pew Research Center, “Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less,” May 3, 2012, http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less/.
273 Flows of Asian immigrants to the U.S. overtook Hispanics
“Asians Overtake Hispanics as Largest US Immigration Group,” Telegraph, June 20, 2009.
274 “by around 2023 if current immigration trends continue”
William H. Frey, “A Demographic Tipping Point Among America’s Three-Year-Olds,” Brookings Institution, February 7, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2011/02/07-population-frey.
275 democratic principle of majority rule
“Arab Majority in ‘Historic Palestine’ After 2014: Survey,” Agence France-Presse, December 30, 2010.
276 higher standards of living in developed countries
Report of the Secretary-General, “International Migration and Development.”
277 results in less support for public school budgets
Tavernise, “Whites Account for Under Half of Births in U.S.”
278 United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom
Report of the Secretary-General, “International Migration and Development.”
279 totaled $351 billion in 2011 and is projected to reach $441 billion
Dipil Ratha, World Bank, “Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2012–14,” February 9, 2012.
280 back home from the cities where they work
Overseas Development Institute, “Internal Migration, Poverty and Development in Asia, October 2006,” http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/download/29.pdf.
281 as much as 60 percent of their income
Ibid.
282 majority of money flowing into those three states
Ibid.
283 persecution to new communities within their own country
United Nations Refugee Agency, “UNHCR: Global Trends,” 2010.
284 “it’s becoming more and more difficult to find solutions for them”
“UN Report Predicts Increase in World’s Displaced,” Associated Press, June 1, 2012.
285 meaning they have no place to go home to
United Nations, Millennium Development Goals Report 2011.
286 more refugees moved to cities than to refugee camps
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “2009 Global Trends: Refugees, Asylum-Seekers, Returnees, Internally Displaced and Stateless Persons,” June 15, 2010, http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/4caee6552.html.
287 80 percent of refugees live in poor regions of the world
Antoine Pécoud and Paul de Guchteneire, UNESCO, “International Migration, Border Controls and Human Rights: Assessing the Relevance of a Right to Mobility,” Journal of Borderlands Studies 21, no. 1 (Spring 2006).
288 Myanmar, Colombia, and Sudan
UNHCR, “2009 Global Trends.”
289 countries for refugees are Afghanistan and Iraq
Ibid.
290 mostly to Pakistan (1.9 million) and Iran (one million)
UNHCR, “Global Trends 2010,” http://www.unhcr.org/4dfa11499.pdf.
291 Iraq have also gone mostly to neighboring countries
Ibid.
292 are hosted in nations neighboring their country of origin
“The Impacts of Refugees on Neighboring Countries: A Development Challenge,” World Development Report 2011 Background Note, July 29, 2010, http://wdronline.worldbank.org/worldbank/a/nonwdrdetail/199.
293 the Middle East and North Africa (another 1.9 million)
UNHCR, “Global Trends 2010.”
294 Muslims already make up 5 percent of Europe’s population
Ibid.; Kurt M. Campbell et al., “The Age of Consequences.”
295 nativist groups exploit the public’s uneasiness
Peter Walker and Matthew Taylor, “Far Right on Rise in Europe, Says Report,” Guardian, November 6, 2011.
296 “to the relentless advance of climate change”
“UN Report Predicts Increase in World’s Displaced,” Associated Press.
297 to protect against a predicted wave of climate refugees
Sharon Udasin, “Defending Israel’s Borders from ‘Climate Refugees,’ ” Jerusalem Post, May 15, 2012.
298 Israeli environmental protection minister Gilad Erdan
Ibid.
299 “where it is possible to escape this”
Ibid.
300 “they shoot, in Japan they shoot”
Ibid.
301 many climate refugees eastward into the Darfur region
Ibid.
302 Palestinian territories, Syria, and the Nile Delta in Egypt
Ibid.
303 “exactly as Europe is doing now”
Ibid.
304 “spur additional migration from Africa and South Asia”
Campbell et al., “The Age of Consequences.”
305 the dangerous journey across to the Canaries
“Canaries Migrant Surge Tops 1,400,” BBC, September 4, 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5310412.stm.
306 one meter or less higher than the current sea level
“Sea Levels May Rise by as Much as One Meter Before the End of the Century,” ScienceDaily, June 10, 2012.
307 abandon the places they call home
Hugo Ahlenius, “Population, Area and Economy Affected by 1m Sea Level Rise,” UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2007, http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/population-area-and-economy-affected-by-a-1-m-sea-level-rise-global-and-regional-estimates-based-on-todays-situation_d4fe.
308 rate of less than one half of one percent per year
WorldWatch Institute, “World Population, Agriculture, and Malnutrition,” 2011.
309 approximately 2.5 centimeters every 500 years
Pete Miller and Laura Westra, Just Ecological Integrity: The Ethics of Maintaining a Planetary Life (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2002), p. 124.
310 productivity on almost one third of the arable land on Earth
Jims Vincent Capuno, “Soil Erosion: The Country’s Unseen Enemy,” Edge Davao, July 11, 2011, http://www.edgedavao.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4801:soil-erosion-the-countrys-unseen-enemy&catid=51:on-the-cover&Itemid=83.
311 ten times faster than it can be replenished
Tom Paulson, “The Lowdown on Topsoil: It’s Disappearing,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, January 21, 2008.
312 erodible soils down the steep slopes of its terrain
Lester Brown, “Civilization’s Founding Eroding,” September 28, 2010, http://www.earth-policy.org/book_bytes/2010/pb4ch02_ss2.
313 have many experts beginning to get very worried
“Groundwater Depletion Rate Accelerating Worldwide,” ScienceDaily, September 23, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100923142503.htm.
314 many aquifers are now falling several meters per year
“No Easy Fix: Simply Using More of Everything to Produce More Food Will Not Work,” Economist, February 24, 2011.
315 “costs and the benefits in separate accounts for comparison”
Jorgen Randers, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2012), p. 75.
316 “practical confusion between income and capital”
R. H. Parker and G. C. Harcourt, Readings in the Concept and Measurement of Income (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1969), p. 81.
317 holds true for nations and for the world as a whole
Kevin Holmes, The Concept of Income: A Multi-disciplinary Analysis (Amsterdam: IBFD, 2001), p. 109.
318 “system of environmental-economic accounts”
Janez Potočnik, “Our Natural Capital Is Endangered,” European Union press release, June 20, 2012.
31
9 argument is often contingent on oversimplification
Simon Kuznets, National Income 1929–1932, Report to the U.S. Senate, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1934), www.nber.org/chapters/c2258.pdf.
320 “the center of conflict of opposing social groups”
Ibid.
321 “farmers did not get enough scientific guidance”
Li Jiao, “Water Shortages Loom as Northern China’s Aquifers Are Sucked Dry,” Science, June 2010.
322 U.S. depends far less on irrigation
Brown, Plan B 4.0.
323 all twenty-one of the world’s longest rivers
“Dams Control Most of the World’s Large Rivers,” Environmental News Service, April 2005, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2005/2005-04-15-04.asp.
324 when it was built seventy years ago
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, “What Is the Biggest Dam in the World?,” June 2012, http://www.usbr.gov/lc/hooverdam/History/essays/biggest.html.
325 global freshwater was used for agriculture
“No Easy Fix,” Economist.
326 780 million people in the world still lack access to safe drinking water
Ibid.; UNICEF, “Water, Sanitation and Hygiene: Introduction,” March 2012; World Health Organization, “Progress on Drinking Water and Sanitation: 2012 Update,” 2012, http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2012/9789280646320_eng_full_text.pdf.
327 has water found to be one million years old
Jack Eggleston, U.S. Geological Survey, “Million Year Old Groundwater in Maryland Water Supply,” June 2012, http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3246#.UGS3kRh9lbo.
328 all have water more than one million years old
Ibid.
329 classic case of “out of sight, out of mind”
Jiao, “Water Shortages Loom as Northern China’s Aquifers Are Sucked Dry.”
330 will dramatically increase sea level rise later in this century
“Groundwater Depletion Rate Accelerating Worldwide,” ScienceDaily.
331 Central Valley of California, and northeastern China
Ibid.
332 unsustainably to irrigate crops in dryland areas
Jiao, “Water Shortages Loom as Northern China’s Aquifers Are Sucked Dry.”
333 intended to remedy water shortages in northern China
Edward Wong, “Plan for China’s Water Crisis Spurs Concern,” New York Times, June 1, 2011.
334 “where the world’s major irrigated lands are located”