The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change
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Nick Collins, “Stem Cells Used to Make Artificial Sperm,” Telegraph, August 4, 2011.
417 though the offspring had genetic defects
Roxanne Khamsi, “Bone Stem Cells Turned into Primitive Sperm Cells,” New Scientist, April 13, 2007.
418 for infertile men to have biological children
Collins, “Stem Cells Used to Make Artificial Sperm.”
419 lesbian couples to have children that are genetically and biologically their own
Macrae, “Death of the Father.”
420 increase human lifespans by multiple centuries
Aubrey de Grey, “ ‘We Will Be Able to Live to 1,000,’ ” BBC, December 3, 2004, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4003063.stm.
421 25 percent is more likely
Gary Taubes, “The Timeless and Trendy Effort to Find—or Create—the Fountain of Youth,” Discover Magazine, February 7, 2011.
422 According to most experts, evolutionary theory
Nir Barzilai et al., “The Place of Genetics in Ageing Research,” Nature Reviews Genetics 13 (August 2012): 589–94.
423 numerous studies in human
James W. Curtsinger, “Genes, Aging, and Prospects for Extended Life Span,” Minnesota Medicine, October 2007.
424 and animal genetics
Ibid.
425 roughly three quarters to the aging process
Barzilai et al., “The Place of Genetics in Ageing Research.”
426 somewhere between 20 and 30 percent
Ibid.
427 extreme caloric restriction extends the lives of rodents dramatically
Taubes, “The Timeless and Trendy Effort to Find—or Create—the Fountain of Youth.”
428 adjustment has the same effect on longevity in humans
Gina Kolata, “Severe Diet Doesn’t Prolong Life, at Least in Monkeys,” New York Times, August 30, 2012.
429 rhesus monkeys do not live longer with severe caloric restrictions
Ibid.
430 experts on all sides point out, between longevity and aging
Roger B. McDonald and Rodney C. Ruhe, “Aging and Longevity: Why Knowing the Difference Is Important to Nutrition Research,” Nutrients 3 (2011): 274–82.
431 to slow or reverse unwanted manifestations of the aging process
Gretchen Voss, “The Risks of Anti-Aging Medicine,” CNN, March 30, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/28/health/age-youth-treatment-medication/index.html; Dan Childs, “Growth Hormone Ineffective for Anti-Aging, Studies Say,” ABC News, January 16, 2007, http://abcnews.go.com/Health/ActiveAging/story?id=2797099&page=1#.UGDZ3Y40jdk.
432 most prominently, testosterone
“Anti-Aging Hormones: Little or No Benefit and the Risks Are High, According to Experts,” ScienceDaily, April 13, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100413121326.htm.
433 genetic factors that can be used to extend longevity in others
Barzilai et al., “The Place of Genetics in Ageing Research.”
434 over the last century have come from improvements in sanitation
Robert Kunzig, “7 Billion: How Your World Will Change,” National Geographic, November 1, 2011.
435 about one extra year per decade
Curtsinger, “Genes, Aging, and Prospects for Extended Life Span.”
436 Much of this work is now focused on malaria, tuberculosis
United Nations, Millennium Development Goals Report 2011.
437 HIV/AIDS, influenza
George Verikios et al., “The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza,” paper prepared for the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, June 16–18, 2011, https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/5291.pdf.
438 viral pneumonia
Olli Ruuskanen, Elina Lahti, Lance C Jennings, and David R Murdoch, “Viral Pneumonia,” Lancet 377 (2011): 1264–75.
439 and multiple so-called “neglected tropical diseases”
Dr. Lorenzo Savioli, World Health Organization, “Neglected Tropical Diseases: Letter from the Director,” 2011, http://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/director/en/index.html.
440 In 2012, the number fell to 1.7 million
Deena Beasley and Tom Miles, “AIDS Deaths Worldwide Dropping as Access to Drugs Improves,” July 18, 2012, Reuters.
441 reduce the infection rate continue to be focused on preventive education
Avert, “Introduction to HIV Prevention,” http://www.avert.org/prevent-hiv.htm.
442 the distribution of condoms in high-risk areas
United Nations Population Fund, Preventing HIV/AIDS, “Comprehensive Condom Programming: A Strategic Response to HIV and AIDS,” http://www.unfpa.org/hiv/programming.htm.
443 and accelerated efforts to develop a vaccine
Beasley and Miles, “AIDS Deaths Worldwide Dropping as Access to Drugs Improves.”
444 Malaria has also been reduced significantly
United Nations, Millennium Development Goals Report 2011.
445 Although an ambitious effort in the 1950s to eradicate malaria
“Malaria Eradication No Vague Aspiration, Says Gates,” Reuters, October 18, 2011.
446 did succeed in eliminating the terrible scourge of smallpox in 1980
Katie Hafner, “Philanthropy Google’s Way: Not the Usual,” New York Times, September 14, 2006.
447 succeeded in eliminating a second disease, rinderpest
Donald G. McNeil Jr., “Rinderpest, Scourge of Cattle, Is Vanquished,” New York Times, June 27, 2011.
448 chronic diseases that are not communicable
Ala Alwan, World Health Organization, “Monitoring and Surveillance of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases: Progress and Capacity in High-Burden Countries,” Lancet 376 (November 2010): 1861–68.
449 massive effort to create a “Cancer Genome Atlas”
Gina Kolata, “Genetic Aberrations Seen as Path to Stop Colon Cancer,” New York Times, July 18, 2012.
450 possibilities for shutting off the blood supply to cancerous cells
Erika Check Hayden, “Cutting Off Cancer’s Supply Lines,” Nature, April 20, 2009.
451 dismantling their defense mechanisms
Nicholas Wade, “New Cancer Treatment Shows Promise in Testing,” New York Times, June 28, 2009.
452 to identify and attack the cancer cells
Denise Grady, “An Immune System Trained to Kill Cancer,” New York Times, September 9, 2011.
453 that involve proteomics—the decoding
Henry Rodriguez, “Fast-Tracking Personalized Medicine: The New Proteomics Pipeline,” R&D Directions, 2012, http://www.pharmalive.com/magazines/randd/view.cfm?articleID=9178#.
454 all of the proteins translated by cancer genes
Danny Hillis, “Understanding Cancer Through Proteomics,” TEDMED 2010, October 2010, http://www.ted.com/talks/danny_hillis_two_frontiers_of_cancer_treatment.html.
455 it is actually more akin to a list of parts or ingredients
Ibid.
456 reprogramming cells to restore the health of heart muscles
Leila Haghighat, “Regenerative Medicine Repairs Mice from Top to Toe,” Nature, April 18, 2012.
457 for combating chronic diseases is to make changes in lifestyles
World Health Organization, World Health Statistics, 2011, p. 19.
458 spreading from North America and Western Europe to the rest of the world
Pedro C. Hallal et al., “Global Physical Activity Levels: Surveillance Progress, Pitfalls, and Prospects,” Lancet 380, no. 9838 (2012): 247–57; Gretchen Reynolds, “The Couch Potato Goes Global,” New York Times, Well blog, July 18, 2012, http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/the-couch-potato-goes-global/.
459 from conditions linked with physical inactivity than die from smoking
Pamela Das and Richard Horton, “Rethinking Our Approach to Physical Activity,” Lancet 380, no. 9838 (2012): 189–90; Reynolds, “The Couch Potato Goes Global.”
460 ten deaths wo
rldwide is now due to diseases caused by persistent inactivity
For various articles on physical activity and inactivity see issue of Lancet 380, no. 9838 (2012): i, 187–306; Matt Sloane, “Physical Inactivity Causes 1 in 10 Deaths Worldwide, Study Says,” CNN, July 18, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/18/health/physical-inactivity-deaths/index.html.
461 apps that assist those who wish to keep track of how many calories
David H. Freeman, “The Perfected Self,” Atlantic, June 2012.
462 some new headbands
Mark Bowden, “The Measured Man,” Atlantic, July/August 2012.
463 Mood disorders
“Counting Every Moment,” Economist, March 3, 2012.
464 genetic analyses designed to improve their individual nutritional needs
April Dembosky, “Olympians Trade Data for Tracking Devices,” Financial Times, July 22, 2012.
465 Personal digital monitors of patients’ heart rates
Gary Wolf, “The Data-Driven Life,” New York Times Magazine, April 28, 2010; “Counting Every Moment,” Economist, March 3, 2012; Freeman, “The Perfected Self.”
466 reporting information on a constant basis
Sharon Gaudin, “Nanotech Could Make Humans Immortal by 2040, Futurist Says,” Computerworld, October 1, 2009; Bowden, “The Measured Man.”
467 “Constant monitoring is a recipe”
Bowden, “The Measured Man.”
468 resulting interventions were apparently doing more harm than good
Gardiner Harris, “U.S. Panel Says No to Prostate Screening for Healthy Men,” New York Times, October 7, 2011.
469 seen as highly valuable to insurance companies
“Do Not Ask or Do Not Answer?,” Economist, August 23, 2007.
470 and employers
Adam Cohen, “Can You Be Fired for Your Genes?,” Time, February 2, 2012.
471 fear that they will lose their jobs and/or their health insurance
Amy Harmon, “Insurance Fears Lead Many to Shun DNA Tests,” New York Times, February 24, 2008.
472 prohibits the disclosure or improper use of genetic information
Cohen, “Can You Be Fired for Your Genes?”
473 But enforcement is difficult
Amy Harmon, “Congress Passes Bill to Bar Bias Based on Genes,” New York Times, May 2, 2008; Cohen, “Can You Be Fired for Your Genes?”
474 trust in the law’s protection is low
Eric A. Feldman, “The Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act (GINA): Public Policy and Medical Practice in the Age of Personalized Medicine,” Journal of General Internal Medicine 27, no. 6 (June 2012): 743–46.
475 employers usually pay for the majority of health care expenditures
Harmon, “Insurance Fears Lead Many to Shun DNA Tests.”
476 fails to guarantee patient access to records
Amy Dockser Marcus and Christopher Weaver, “Heart Gadgets Test Privacy-Law Limits,” Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2012.
477 outside of an institutional setting
Freeman, “The Perfected Self.”
478 personalized medicine continues to move forward
Chad Terhune, “Spending on Genetic Tests Is Forecast to Rise Sharply by 2021,” Los Angeles Times, March 12, 2012.
479 For example, many health care
Since people sometimes switch from one insurance company to another, companies paying for prevention may end up benefiting a competitor.
480 required coverage of preventive care
“Preventive Services Covered under the Affordable Care Act,” Healthcare.gov, 2012.
481 As everyone knows, the U.S. spends
Simon Rogers, “Healthcare Spending Around the World, Country by Country,” Guardian, June 30, 2012; Harvey Morris, “U.S. Healthcare Costs More Than ‘Socialized’ European Medicine,” International Herald Tribune, June 28, 2012.
482 many other countries that pay far less
Morris, “U.S. Healthcare Costs More Than ‘Socialized’ European Medicine.”
483 still, tens of millions do not have reasonable access to health care
Emily Smith and Caitlin Stark, “By the Numbers: Health Insurance,” CNN, June 28, 2012, http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/27/politics/btn-health-care/index.html.
484 where the cost of intervention is highest
Sarah Kliff, “Romney Was Against Emergency Room Care Before He Was for It,” Washington Post, Ezra Klein’s Wonkblog, September 24, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/24/romney-was-against-emergency-room-care-before-he-was-for-it/.
485 chance of success is lowest
Sarah Kliff, “The Emergency Department Is Not Health Insurance,” Washington Post, Ezra Klein’s Wonkblog, September 24, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/24/the-emergency-department-is-not-health-insurance/.
486 reforms will significantly improve some of these defects
Emily Oshima Lee, Center for American Progress, “How ObamaCare Is Benefitting Americans,” July 12, 2012, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2012/07/12/11843/update-how-obamacare-is-benefiting-americans/.
487 but the underlying problems are likely to grow worse
U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Federal Government Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: Spring 2012,” April 2, 2012, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-521SP.
488 The business of insurance began as far back as ancient Rome
LifeHealthPro, “Timeline: The History of Life Insurance,” 2012, http://www.lifehealthpro.com/interactive/timeline/history/.
489 and Greece
American Bank, “A Brief History of Insurance,” June 2011, http://www.american-bank.com/insurance/a-brief-history-of-insurance-part-3-roman-life-insurance/.
490 were similar to what we now know as burial insurance
Ibid.
491 not offered until the seventeenth century in England
Habersham Capital, “The History of Life Insurance and Life Settlements,” 2012, http://www.habershamcapital.com/brief-no2-history.
492 development of extensive railroad networks
“Health Insurance,” Encarta, 2009, http://www.webcitation.org/5kwqZV6V7.
493 drive costs above what many patients could pay on their own
Timothy Noah, “A Short History of Health Care,” Slate, March 13, 2007, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/chatterbox/2007/03/a_short_history_of_health_care.single.htm.
494 Blue Cross for hospital charges
“Health Insurance,” Encarta.
495 preexisting conditions
Noah, “A Short History of Health Care.”
496 twice took preliminary steps—in 1935
Kyle Noonan, New America Foundation, “Health Reform through History: Part I: The New Deal,” May 26, 2009, http://www.newamerica.net/blog/new-health-dialogue/2009/health-reform-through-history-part-i-new-deal-11961.
497 feared the political opposition of the American Medical Association
Ibid.
498 regarded as more pressing priorities
Paul Starr, “In Sickness and in Health,” On the Media, August 21, 2009, http://www.onthemedia.org/2009/aug/21/in-sickness-and-in-health/transcript/.
499 offered a quixotic third opportunity to proceed but Roosevelt
Noonan, “Health Reform through History: Part I: The New Deal.”
500 During World War II, with wages (and prices) controlled
Noah, “A Short History of Health Care.”
501 extensive health insurance as part of their negotiated contracts
“Health Insurance,” Encarta.
502 revive the idea for national health insurance, but the opposition in Congress
Starr, “In Sickness and in Health”; Noonan, “Health Reform through History: Part I: The New Deal.”
503 employer-based health insurance became the primary model
Noah, “A Short History of Health Care.”
504 new governmen
t programs were implemented to help both groups
“Health Insurance,” Encarta.
505 needed health insurance the most had a difficult time obtaining it
Noah, “A Short History of Health Care”; “Health Insurance,” Encarta.
506 believe that genetically engineered food should be labeled
Gary Langer, “Poll: Skepticism of Genetically Modified Foods,” ABC News, June 19, 2011, http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=97567&page=1#.UGIUS7S1Ndx.
507 adopted the point of view advocated by large agribusiness
Tom Philpott, “Congress’ Big Gift to Monsanto,” Mother Jones, July 2, 2012.
508 However, most European countries
Amy Harmon and Andrew Pollack, “Battle Brewing Over Labeling of Genetically Modified Food,” New York Times, May 25, 2012.
509 genetically engineered alfalfa
Ibid.
510 which plants twice as many acres in GM crops as any other country
International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, ISAAA Brief 43-2011, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2011, http://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/briefs/43/executivesummary/default.asp.
511 California defeated a referendum in 2012 to require such labeling
Andrew Pollack, “After Loss, the Fight to Label Modified Food Continues,” New York Times, November 7, 2012.
512 approximately 70 percent of the processed foods
Harmon and Pollack, “Battle Brewing Over Labeling of Genetically Modified Food”; Richard Shiffman, “How California’s GM Food Referendum May Change What America Eats,” Guardian, June 13, 2012; Center for Food Safety, “Genetically Engineered Crops,” http://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/campaign/genetically-engineered-food/crops/.
513 as enthusiastic advocates often emphasize, hardly new
Michael Antoniou, Claire Robinson, and John Fagan, “GMO Myths and Truths, Version 1.3,” June 2012, http://earthopensource.org/files/pdfs/GMO_Myths_and_Truths/GMO_Myths_and_Truths_1.3a.pdf, p. 21; Council for Biotechnology Information, “Myths & Facts: Plant Biotechnology,” http://www.whybiotech.com/resources/myths_plantbiotech.asp#16.
514 genetically modified during the Stone Age by careful selective breeding
Council for Biotechnology Information, “Myths & Facts: Plant Biotechnology.”
515 “plants in the process of domesticating our food crop species”
Anne Cook, “Borlaug: Will Farmers Be Permitted to Use Biotechnology?,” Knight Ridder/Tribune, June 14, 2001.