The Panic Virus

by Seth Mnookin; Dan B. Miller

  186 a biopsy of Michelle’s gut tissue: Ibid., 253–54; Cedillo v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 8.

  186 in consultation with Wakefield: Transcript of record, Cedillo v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 2899–900.

  186 for the purpose of testing tissue samples: Cedillo v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 42.

  186 “[We wanted] to determine”: Transcript of record, Cedillo v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 397.

  186 “I think we could help him”: Kirby, Evidence of Harm, 57.

  186 Wakefield described for his audibly amused audience: Andrew Wakefield, “Presentation to MIND Institute,” University of California, Davis, March 20, 1999, transcript. See also: Nick Triggle, “MMR Scare Doctor ‘Acted Unethically,’ Panel Finds,” BBC News, January 28, 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8483865.stm; “Fitness to Practise Panel Hearing,” 54–55.

  187 Sam Debold was born in 1997: Vicky Debold, interview with author, July 28, 2009.

  188 “on an irrational, unconscious level”: Bryna Siegel, The World of the Autistic Child (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), 323.

  188 “It’s the most depressing book”: Vicky Debold, interview with author, July 28, 2009.

  188 “You’re an educated person”: Ibid.

  188 scheduled to speak at an upcoming: Pennsylvania Parents for Vaccine Awareness conference, Erie, Pennsylvania, May 19, 2000.

  188 “Andy said, ‘Look, let’s calm down here’ ”: Vicky Debold, interview with author, July 28, 2009.

  189 “Dr Wakefield’s research was no longer in line”: Matthew Beard, “Consultant Who Linked MMR Jab to Autism Quits After ‘Political Pressure,” The Independent (London), December 3, 2001, 4. See also: Sarah Ramsey, “Controversial MMR-Autism Investigator Resigns from Research Post,” The Lancet 2001;358(9297): 1972.

  189 “I have been asked to go”: Beard, “Consultant Who Linked MMR Jab to Autism Quits After ‘Political Pressure.’ ”

  189 “We get these parents ringing up every day”: Laurance, “Not Immune to How Research Can Hurt.”

  190 On January 14, 2002, two months after: Cedillo v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 19–20.

  191 “[P]etitioners’ representatives have stated”: Golkiewicz, “Autism General Order #1,” 3.

  191 both sides were given sixteen months: “Master Scheduling Order,” Omnibus Autism Proceeding, included as Exhibit E of Golkiewicz, “Autism General Order #1.”

  CHAPTER 16: COGNITIVE BIASES AND AVAILABILITY CASCADES

  PAGE

  192 Lehrer describes a patient named Elliot: Jonah Lehrer, How We Decide (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2009), 13–18.

  193 just two of literally dozens of cognitive biases: For a list of commonly accepted cognitive biases and a brief definition of each, see: “List of cognitive biases,” Wikipedia, n.d., http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases.

  196 Vicky Debold says she was motivated: Vicky Debold, interview with author, July 28, 2009.

  196 Theresa Cedillo was enticed by the prospect: Transcript of record, Cedillo v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 39–42, 252–53.

  196 “I looked out at an audience”: Jane Johnson, interview with author, May 4, 2009.

  196 “This is the federal government giving every kid”: Jane Johnson, interview with author, April 22, 2010.

  196 “You wouldn’t be saying and doing”: Vicky Debold, interview with author, July 28, 2009.

  196 a concept that was first articulated in a 1999 paper: Timur Kuran and Cass R. Sunstein, “Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation,” Stanford Law Review 1999;51(4): 683–768.

  196 “self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation”: Kuran and Sunstein, “Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation,” 683.

  197 In the 2008 book Nudge: Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler, Nudge (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008).

  197 “As all women”: Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler, “Easy Does It: How to Make Lazy People Do the Right Thing,” The New Republic, April 9, 2008; available as “The Amsterdam Urinals” on Nudge, http://nudges.wordpress.com/the-amsterdam-urinals/. See also: Sunstein and Thaler, Nudge, 3–4.

  197 how nonscientists viewed scientific claims: Ralph M. Barnes, Audrey L. Alberstadt, and Lesleh E. Keilholtz, “How to Think About Scientific Claims: A Study of How Non-Scientists Evaluate Science Claims,” Skeptic, January 1, 2009;14(4): 48–55.

  197 “poor source credibility”: B. Fischhoff and R. Beyth-Marom, “Hypothesis Evaluation from a Bayesian Perspective,” Psychological Review 1983;90: 239–60.

  197 “even more strongly committed”: Barnes, Alberstadt, and Keilholtz, “How to Think About Scientific Claims.

  198 In 1987, nearly three-quarters of Americans: “Internet Sapping Broadcast News Audience,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, June 11, 2000, http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=203.

  198 Now that figure has fallen below one-third: Ibid.

  198 Kuran and Sunstein refer to these people: Kuran and Sunstein, “Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation,” 683.

  198 A 2007 study titled “Inferring the Popularity of an Opinion from Its Familiarity”: Kimberlee Weaver et al., “Inferring the Popularity of an Opinion from Its Familiarity: A Repetitive Voice Can Sound like a Chorus,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2007;92(5): 821–33.

  198 “to infer that a familiar opinion”: Ibid., 821.

  199 Lyn Redwood became so convinced: Kirby, Evidence of Harm, 139–40.

  199 It wasn’t long, Redwood says, before national reporters: Lyn Redwood, interview with author, April 21, 2010.

  199 “This is fraud”: Kelly Patricia O’Meara, “Vaccines May Fuel Autism Epidemic,” Insight, June 24, 2003, http://www.wnd.com/?pageid=19204.

  199 “junk scientists and charlatans”: Myron Levin, “Taking It to Vaccine Court—Parents Say Mercury in Shots Caused Their Children’s Autism, and They Want Drug Firms to Pay,” Los Angeles Times, August 7, 2004, 1.

  200 “have to answer later for their failures”: SafeMinds, “SafeMinds Outraged That IOM Report Fails American Public,” PR Newswire, May 18, 2004.

  200 resulted in Harvard University increasing security: Harris and O’Connor, “On Autism’s Cause, It’s Parents vs. Researchers.”

  200 “I’d like to know how you people sleep”: Ibid.

  200 “Forgiveness is between”: Ibid.

  CHAPTER 17: HOW TO TURN A LACK OF EVIDENCE INTO EVIDENCE OF HARM

  PAGE

  203 the forty-two-year-old’s work history was most notable: “About the Author,” EvidenceOfHarm.com, n.d., http://evidenceofharm.com/bio.htm.

  203 a friend in Los Angeles suggested: David Kirby, interview with author, April 14, 2009.

  203 “More Options, and Decisions”: David Kirby, “More Options, and Decisions, for Men with Prostate Cancer, The New York Times, October 3, 2000, F7.

  204 “New Resistant Gonorrhea”: David Kirby, “New Resistant Gonorrhea Migrating to Mainland U.S.,” The New York Times, May 7, 2002, F5.

  204 he could turn the idea into a feature: David Kirby, interview with author, April 14, 2009.

  204 “She was cool”: Ibid.

  204 “I was like, Oh, mercury is in vaccines”: Ibid.

  204 In the 2000 election: “Heavy Hitters: Eli Lilly & Co,” OpenSecrets.org—Center for Responsive Politics, n.d., http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?ID=D000000166&Type=P.

  204 Ohio’s Dennis Kucinich: Arianna Huffington, “Finding the Answer to Washington’s Hottest Whodunit,” Arianna Online, December 4, 2002, http://ariannaonline.huffingtonpost.com/columns.php?id=48.

  205 John McCain likened it: Mark Shields, “The Business Lobby’s Campaign Against McCain,” CNN Inside Politics, CNN, November 27, 2002.

  205 “It was a big whodunit”: David Kirby, interview with author, April 14, 2009.

  205 “It was too controversial”: Ibid.

  205 “He said, ‘You can’t just
write’ ”: Ibid.

  205 the Republicans had all but promised: Steven Higgs, “The Mystery of the Eli Lilly Rider,” Counter Punch, January 22, 2010.

  205 some were carrying poster-board signs: Kirby, Evidence of Harm, 252.

  206 According to Redwood, when Kirby contacted her: Lyn Redwood, interview with author, April 21, 2010.

  206 One editor explained her reasoning: McBreen, “Spectrum’s Person of the Year 2009.”

  206 “We decided to combine forces”: Lyn Redwood, interview with author, April 21, 2010.

  206 “every single e-mail”: David Kirby, interview with author, April 14, 2009.

  206 “He came and hung out”: Lyn Redwood, interview with author, April 21, 2010.

  207 the CDC’s 1999 statement: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Notice to Readers: Thimerosal in Vaccines: A Joint Statement of the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Public Health Service.”

  207 He granted that the report “favor[ed] rejection”: Kirby, Evidence of Harm, 351.

  207 Meanwhile, the CDC has been unable: Ibid., xii.

  208 “admittedly subjective point of view”: Ibid., xiv.

  208 “an attractive woman”: Ibid., 10.

  208 “tough businesswoman”: Ibid., 21.

  208 “fierce streak of determination”: Ibid., 25.

  208 “remarkable aptitude”: Ibid., 44.

  208 “the kind of guy you would want”: Ibid., 228.

  208 “barked at” and “banished”: Ibid., 23.

  208 “poked and prodded”: Ibid., 13.

  209 “grew purple”: Ibid., 38.

  209 “insurgent candidate”: Ibid., 254.

  209 “Curiously, the first case of autism”: Ibid., xv.

  209 Eli Lilly “reportedly earn[ed] a profit”: Ibid., 2.

  209 “the American health establishment”: Ibid., xiii.

  209 resulted in an American Academy of Pediatrics statement: “Study Fails to Show a Connection Between Thimerosal and Autism,” American Academy of Pediatrics, May 16, 2003.

  210 “were made to sound like dimwits”: Kirby, Evidence of Harm, 260.

  210 “felt the same disdain”: Ibid., 259.

  210 “veiled swipe at their colleagues”: Ibid., 260.

  210 “looks down their noses”: Ibid., 230.

  210 “dismiss [the AAPS]”: Ibid., 230.

  210 It has compared electronic medical records: Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, “Statement of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons on Computer-Based Patient Records,” n.d., http://www.aapsonline.org/confiden/ncvhs.htm.

  210 cigarette taxes actually led: Michael Marlow, “Anatomy of Public Health Research: Tobacco Control as a Case Study,” Journal of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons 2009;14(3): 79–80.

  210 “deliberately using the techniques of neurolinguistic programming”: Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, “Oratory—or Hypnotic Induction?,” October 25, 2008.

  211 “considered by many experts”: Kirby, Evidence of Harm, 230.

  211 “moving the paradigm away”: Jim Donnelly, “MIND Immune Dysfunction in Autism: Researchers Suggest Autism Can Be Detected in Newborns?,” EOHarm Yahoo! group, May 5, 2005, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EOHarm/message/1496.

  211 “once causation is established”: Jim Moody, “An Introduction and a Question,” EOHarm Yahoo! group, April 26, 2005, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EOHarm/message/344.

  212 “Please feel free to share”: David Kirby, “EVIDENCE OF HARM: NYT Science Times ad,” EOHarm Yahoo! group, April 28, 2005, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EOHarm/message/628.

  212 “Two years ago this was the province”: John Gilmore, “Sound the Trumpet—Update,” EOHarm Yahoo! group, April 28, 2005, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EOHarm/message/719.

  212 “Somehow,” Kirby says, Deirdre Imus: David Kirby, interview with author, April 14, 2009.

  212 reached more than three million Americans: “Imus Audience Slips in New York but He Still Packs a Punch,” Business Week, April 26, 2005, http://nybw.businessweek.com/the_thread/

  brandnewday/archives/2005/04/imus_audience

  _slips_in_new_york_but_he_

  still_packs_a_punch.html.

  212 Imus gave Kirby immediate credibility: Don Imus, “David Kirby Interviewed by Don Imus,” Imus in the Morning, MSNBC, March 10, 2005, unofficial transcript.

  212 the only health-related story: David Kirby, “Sex and Medicine—Party Favors: Pill Popping as Insurance,” The New York Times, June 21, 2004, F1.

  213 He asked about the book’s name: Imus, “David Kirby Interviewed by Don Imus.”

  214 “happened to check Amazon”: David Kirby, interview with author, April 14, 2009.

  215 “rang[ing] from severely flawed”: Tim Russert, Meet the Press, NBC, August 7, 2005, transcript, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8714275/.

  216 In June 2010, the FDA accused Haley: U.S. Food and Drug Administration Division of Inspections, Compliance, Enforcement, and Criminal Investigations, “Warning Letter CIN-10-107927-14 to Boyd Haley,” June 17, 2010, http://www.fda.gov/ICECI/EnforcementActions

  /WarningLetters/ucm216216.htm.

  216 The paper by Deth: King v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, No. 03-584V at 73 (Ct. Fed. Cl., March 12, 2010). See also: Transcript of record, King v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 3967–68.

  216 one of Deth’s claims: M. Waly et al., “Activation of Methionine Synthase by Insulin-Like Growth Factor-1: A Target for Neurodevelopmental Toxins and Thimerosal,” Molecular Psychiatry 2004;9: 358 (PML 257).

  216 James explicitly wrote: King v. Sec’y of Health and Human Services, 75.

  217 “The press was great”: David Kirby, interview with author, April 14, 2009.

  217 A full-page write-up: Polly Morrice, “ ‘Evidence of Harm’: What Caused the Autism Epidemic?,” The New York Times Book Review, April 17, 2005, 20.

  217 On Thanksgiving 2009, the site ran an illustration: “Pass the Maalox: An AoA Thanksgiving Nightmare,” Age of Autism, November 29, 2009. (The blog entry, which had previously been available at http://www.ageofautism.com/2009/11/pass-the-maalox-an-aoa-thanksgiving-nightmare.html, was taken down in December 2009 and replaced by a blank white page.)

  218 “Autism, Vaccines, and the CDC”: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and David Kirby, “Autism, Vaccines and the CDC: The Wrong Side of History,” The Huffington Post, January 27, 2009, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-f-kennedy-and-david-kirby/autism-vaccines-and-the-c_b_161395.html.

  218 “The Autism Vaccine Debate”: David Kirby, “The Autism Vaccine Debate—Anything but Over,” The Huffington Post, November 30, 2007, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/the-autismvaccine-debate-_b_74853.html.

  218 “Up to 1-in-50 Troops”: David Kirby, “Up to 1-in-50 Troops Seriously Injured . . . By Vaccines?,” The Huffington Post, August 14, 2008, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/up-to-1-in-50-troops-seri_b_119048.html.

  218 In the epilogue to his book: Kirby, Evidence of Harm, 411.

  218 Then in 2005, he told Don Imus: Imus, “David Kirby Interviewed by Don Imus.”

  218 His latest is that myelin: David Kirby, “Metals, Myelin, Mitochondria, and Mouse Virus—Possible Paths to ASD,” presentation, AutismOne conference, Westin O’Hare, Chicago, May 29, 2010. See also: David Kirby, “Metals, Myelin, and Mitochondria—Several Paths to Autism?,” presentation, AutismOne conference, Westin O’Hare, Chicago, May 23, 2009.

  218 “It is used in vaccines as an adjuvant”: Kirby, “Metals, Myelin, and Mitochondria—Several Paths to Autism?”

  218 In 2000, when Hannah was nineteen months old: David Kirby, “Government Concedes Vaccine-Autism Case in Federal Court—Now What?,” The Huffington Post, February 25, 2008, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/government-concedes-vacci_b_88323.html.

  219 a study that had appeared in the Journal of Child Neurology: Jon S. Poling et al., “Developmental Regression and Mitochondrial Dysfuncti
on in a Child with Autism,” Journal of Child Neurology 2006;21(2): 170–72.

  219 the study was submitted for publication: Roger A. Brumback, “The Appalling Poling Saga,” Journal of Child Neurology 2008;23(9): 1090–91.

  219 who called Jon Poling’s behavior: Ibid.

  219 “It’s a no-fault system”: Jon Poling, interview with author, May 23, 2009.

  220 David Kirby stood in front of hundreds of people: Kirby, “Metals, Myelin, and Mitochondria—Several Paths to Autism?”

  CHAPTER 18: A CONSPIRACY OF DUNCES

  PAGE

  221 Rolling Stone and the online magazine Salon.com simultaneously published: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., “Deadly Immunity,” Rolling Stone, June 20, 2005, http://www.webcitation.org/5glaWmdym; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., “Deadly Immunity,” Salon.com, June 16, 2005, http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/

  2005/06/16/thimerosal/.

  221 “I was drawn into the controversy”: Ibid.

  223 Before we all leave: “Scientific Review of Vaccine Safety Datalink Information,” unpublished transcript, 255.

  223 Dr. Bob Chen, head of vaccine safety: Kennedy, “Deadly Immunity.”

  224 And I really want to risk offending: “Scientific Review of Vaccine Safety Datalink Information,” unpublished transcript, 247.

  224 There is now the point: Ibid., 248.

  224 My message would be: Ibid., 249.

  224 Dr. John Clements, vaccines advisor: Kennedy, “Deadly Immunity.”

  225 Finally, the thing that concerns me: “Scientific Review of Vaccine Safety Datalink Information,” unpublished transcript, 191.

  225 The medical/legal findings: Ibid., 229.

  225 “we are in a bad position”: Kennedy, “Deadly Immunity.”

  226 didn’t warrant inclusion: “Correction, June 17, 2005,” Salon.com, http://www.salon.com/letters/corrections/2005

  /index.html#thimerosal; “Correction, June 21, 2005,” Salon.com, http://www.salon.com/letters/corrections/2005

  /index.html#rosen; “Correction, June 22, 2005,” Salon.com, http://www.salon.com/letters/corrections/2005

  /index.html#IOMpanel; “Correction, June 24, 2005,” Salon.com, http://www.salon.com/letters/corrections/2005

  /index.html#clements_katz; “Correction, July 1, 2005,” Salon.com, http://www.salon.com/letters/corrections/2005