THE FORESIGHT WAR

by Anthony G Williams

  An obviously cultured younger man, whom Don had tagged as a Foreign Office official, elegantly waved his cigarette holder and begged to differ.

  ‘From what we have heard, the Nazi Party is an inevitable expression of German frustration at the outcome of the Great War, and Hitler no more than a demagogic catalyst. If he fell, he would be replaced by someone else with similar ambitions.’

  ‘But perhaps by someone more reasonable, less megalomaniac.’ This from a rather earnest, pipe-smoking individual whose application of hair cream did not entirely stifle the exuberance of his light brown curls.

  ‘But Hitler’s paranoiac megalomania will be the cause of his downfall. A more rational leader may still wish to expand Germany’s boundaries but would make fewer mistakes in so doing. Even with Hitler’s misjudgements, we have heard how close Germany will come to winning the next war.’

  ‘But if only half of what we have heard is correct, Hitler is appallingly evil.’

  ‘All the better. It gives us a much less ambiguous target. A more reasonable man might be much harder to turn public opinion against, particularly in America.’ The last speaker was clearly military, although Don was unable to guess the Service.

  ‘Could the League of Nations be used in some way?’

  ‘No fear’, retorted Diplomat with feeling, ‘If we try to encourage them to take a more active role, they would just expect us to contribute most of the military forces. We could end up being dragged into a war anyway, in circumstances not of our choosing.’

  ‘Is there no way we can persuade the Germans away from their folly? Show them our evidence? Get them to see reason?’ Creamed Curls was sounding desperate. Military Man was unmoved.

  ‘War appears inevitable. Dr Erlang is the biggest secret weapon we will have. His existence must not be revealed.’

  There was a thoughtful pause. Chairman broke the silence. ‘I agree that the consequences of revealing Dr Erlang’s existence are too incalculable to be risked, in terms of public opinion as well as German reaction. Events would be set off on an entirely new course which could result in a much more disastrous outcome for this country. And the interests of this country must be paramount in our minds.’

  Don shuffled, feeling he ought to protest, but was stilled by the murmurs of agreement around the table. Chairman was warming to his theme.

  ‘Let us consider the situation. We are warned of a terrible war which we, none the less, will win. It is therefore to our advantage to take no radical steps which might affect the outcome, but to make whatever adjustments appear necessary to our policies in order to reduce our losses and end the war in a more favourable position.’ There was much nodding around the table.

  ‘Some gentle nudges on the tiller,’ murmured Diplomat, ‘take in a reef here or there. Changes which, begging your pardon’ – this to Don – ‘would do no harm even if your promised apocalypse turns out to be a damp squib.’

  ‘We are agreed then,’ stated Chairman with justified confidence. ‘It might be helpful for us to have a preliminary tour around our foreign and defence policies in order to identify areas which could do with attention.’

  ‘Mustn’t forget the empire,’ observed a man whose ruddy face was emphasised by his white hair, ‘incredible about those Japanese. I wouldn’t have thought they would have the nerve, let alone the ability, to pose any risk to ourselves or the Americans.’

  ‘I agree entirely,’ smoothed Diplomat, ‘but from what we have heard, the errors which cost so dear - beg pardon, will cost; or should it be would have cost? These tenses are becoming confusing. No matter – the forecast problems in the Far East should be easy enough to correct with better preparation.’

  ‘That depends,’ responded Ruddy Face, ‘the Navy can’t be expected to deal with Japan at the same time as Germany and Italy. It would be highly dangerous to risk war with Japan unless we could be assured that America will fight with us.’

  ‘From what we have heard,’ commented Chairman, ‘that should not be too much of a problem.’

  There was a thoughtful pause.

  ‘Are we agreed on that?’ Enquired Chairman. Emphatic nods. ‘Very well then, let us turn to the German question. What are our options.’

  Creamed Curls was still optimistic. ‘We could speed up re-armament and take a tougher line with Hitler; aim to stop him at some point before the attack on Poland. Perhaps the re-occupation of the Rhineland? The crisis over Czechoslovakia?’

  ‘That would only postpone the conflict’ (this from Elderly Cigar) ‘and it’s not feasible anyway unless we have full backing from France.’

  ‘Can’t we attempt to convince France of the need to re-arm and take a strong line as well?’

  Elderly Cigar looked incredulous. ‘My dear chap, have you been over there? Read their newspapers? Listened to their politicians? They are perpetually torn apart by conflict between left and right-wing groups and have no political stability at all. And while most countries are pulling out of the Depression, French production is still declining. What’s more, they were so traumatised by the slaughter of the Great War that they would do almost anything to avoid conflict. They intend to hide behind their Maginot Line and haven’t the will to confront anything. I am actually astonished that they are apparently going to stick to their treaty obligations and back us over Poland.’

  Chairman frowned. ‘Very well then, what other options do we have?’

  Military Man had no doubts. ‘Re-arm more quickly and effectively, persuade the French to do the same – as far as possible – and concentrate on defeating Germany as soon as possible after 1939, when they’re still busy with invading Poland and simultaneously covering the Russians to ensure that they don’t advance too far.’

  ‘Risky, given German strength and French weakness,‘ murmured Diplomat. ‘Let’s face it, it’s clear that in order to guarantee German defeat, we would have to bring the Russians in against them. This will only happen if Germany attacks Russia, and Germany won’t do that unless France is defeated first.’

  Everybody looked at Diplomat. He waved his cigarette holder. ‘One of our most vulnerable points will be after the defeat of France. According to our friend here, nobody knows what would have happened if Hitler had invaded us in 1940, with our Army defeated and its equipment lost.’

  ‘They would never have got past the Navy.’ Ruddy Face’s allegiance was now clearly identifiable.

  Chairman was interested. ‘What do you suggest?’

  Diplomat smiled, rather enjoying the limelight, thought Don. ‘I propose that we stay away from European entanglements and let Hitler do what he likes on the Continent. He will have no reason to attack Britain and will not be able to if we prepare our defences against invasion. There is still a good chance that Russia will defeat him single-handed, only much weakened. We can then step in to put things right.’

  Creamed Curls was indignant. ‘We can’t do that, it would be legally and morally impossible given our treaty obligations.’

  ‘What’s more,’ added Elderly Cigar, ‘Hitler’s desire for conquest appears to be insatiable and there will still be the risk that if he can secure his position in Europe, Germany will turn on Britain. Furthermore, as he grows in power so will his influence here. Nazism already has many supporters.’

  There was silence as thoughts turned to the frequent, well-attended meetings of the British Union of Fascists.

  ‘And not all of his supporters are down at the level of Mosley’s Blackshirts,’ murmured Diplomat.

  ‘Quite so,’ said Chairman, a little sourly Don thought. ‘We need a way of minimising our losses without breaking our treaty obligations.’

  ‘Try this one for size,’ offered Diplomat. ‘We refrain from giving that expensive guarantee to Poland – seems a daft idea anyway as we could never do anything effective to defend them and the Treaty of Locarno doesn’t commit us to guaranteeing their boundaries. That means that we don’t have to declare war until the Germans charge through the Low Countries on the
ir way to France. It will then be too late for us to get any substantial part of our Army over before the French are defeated. Then we could sit, honour satisfied but with defences intact.’

  Another pause, this time more encouraging.

  ‘I like the sound of that,’ from Elderly Cigar.

  ‘So do I,’ said Ruddy Face ‘and I suggest a refinement.’ Enquiring looks. ‘We prepare instead to pinch Norway from under the Nazis’ noses. If Hitler follows the script, we will be fully engaged in battling his invasion of Norway just at the point that he moves on France, so we will have a cast-iron reason for not coming to France’s aid. Holding Norway will incidentally save us a great deal of trouble later on.’

  Creamed Curls winced and objected. ‘How do we know that the Germans will still invade Norway just before attacking France, if we’re not already at war with them over Poland?’

  ‘We don’t,’ said Diplomat, ‘but we can take steps to ensure that they do. Suppose they were made aware that we would certainly declare war if they attacked France, and would then seek to ensure that Norway remained friendly to us? That would give Hitler enough incentive to catch us on the hop by invading Norway first. Ironically, our interests and those of the Nazis would be identical at that point: to prevent us from becoming involved with the fighting in France.’

  Chairman waited for further contributions, but no-one seemed inclined to take the argument further. ‘Very well, gentlemen. We seem to have arrived at a consensus over the broad thrust of our policy. I suggest we cancel any other commitments in order to continue these discussions next week.’

  That evening, Don bought a copy of the Daily Mail on his way back to his rooms. ‘GENERAL STRIKE IN SPAIN’ announced the headline. And the sub-heading, ‘Sound of firing heard in Madrid.’ This would be the abortive precursor of the Spanish Civil War, he thought, with an attempt to form a Catalan republic leading to a battle in Barcelona. The real fighting would start in the following year.

  Another headline caught his eye; ‘NATION DEMANDS MORE AIR DEFENCES’. It seemed that the Conservative Party conference had passed a resolution expressing ‘grave anxiety in regard to the inadequacy of the provisions made for Imperial defence.’ Neville Chamberlain, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, had tried to fend off criticism by describing the government’s plans to increase home defence aeroplane squadrons from forty-two to seventy-five over a five-year period. The Party was obviously not so easily satisfied. Sir Arthur Steel-Maitland, a former Cabinet Minister, claimed that air attacks would be so sudden and destructive that within forty-eight hours of war having been declared, one or other side would be annihilated.

  That, thought Don, showed a remarkable lack of comprehension of basic statistics about aircraft, bombloads and the amount of destruction which bombs could cause. He read on. Lord Lloyd pointed out that Britain’s armed forces were so weak that the country was ‘no longer in a position to guarantee the safety of our sea routes and food supplies.’ That struck much closer to home, he thought. If war was inevitable, as the country’s most influential observers seemed to believe, much needed to be done.

  Don walked to the window and looked down into the street. As on the previous few nights, an anonymous car was parked opposite the entrance to his building. A brief flare within it marked the lighting of yet another cigarette. Someone was keeping an eye on him and didn’t care if he knew it.

  Dunning dropped in a few days later, as usual without warning. Don had been using the unexpected free time to walk around 1930s London, re-learning the city he had previously known so well. He did not enjoy cooking and was finding the limited variety of eating places a distinct drawback; no Chinese, no Indian, no pizzas, even a burger would have been a welcome relief. The pubs were no help either; meals weren’t available, and the restricted choice of beers (mostly mild or India Pale Ale) didn’t much appeal. He noted that despite his frequent absences, Dunning clearly expected him to be in, and wondered about the extent of the surveillance he was under.

  ‘Just thought I’d drop in to see how you’re managing.’ Dunning said pleasantly.

  ‘Well enough Charles, but I’m becoming increasingly concerned about the policy decisions being made.’ Don had been worrying for days, and knew that the situation would slip out of his grasp if he kept silent. ‘The powers-that-be seem set on allowing this war to happen and in using my information merely to fight it more efficiently.’

  Dunning raised an eyebrow but did not comment. Don leaned forward urgently.

  ‘They have no conception of the horrors this war will bring. Millions slaughtered in Nazi concentration camps simply because of their racial origin. Tens of millions of Russians killed. There has to be a way to stop it.’

  Dunning looked at him thoughtfully. ‘I agree with your sentiments, Don, but what can be done? You have said yourself that international tensions are such that, one way or another, Germany is bound to try to avenge the crippling penalties of Versailles. Do you suppose that other countries will voluntarily give back the territories Germany has lost? Perhaps in your time governments are more rational, less nationalistic, but there is a tide rising in Germany which will not be held back by the threat of war. This boil has to come to a head before it can be lanced.’

  Don said nothing, feeling overwhelmed by a sense of hopeless inevitability.

  ‘Japan is an even worse case,’ continued Dunning. ‘They may not have a defeat to avenge but they are looking to expand their empire and are chronically short of the raw materials they need, which happen to be conveniently available in nearby territories occupied by the USA or European countries. Conflict is becoming increasingly inevitable.’

  ‘It just seems so absurd, pressing on down the road to war knowing full well what the cost will be.’

  ‘Perhaps the world has to go through this experience,’ Dunning said gently, ‘before nations are ready to put conflict behind them as a way of solving problems.’

  Don thought of Korea, Vietnam, Bosnia and the Middle East, and put his head in his hands.

  ‘In any case, by helping this country to win the war more quickly you will be reducing the period of suffering to a minimum.’

  Don sighed. ‘Very well, it doesn’t seem as if I have any other option.’

  It was clear that much discussion had been going on in the week since the previous meeting. Chairman seemed quite jaunty. ‘Let me begin by summing up. We agreed last time that we would make no changes to our existing foreign policy but we would take care to ensure that our political masters enter into no further commitments, with particular reference to Poland. What we need to do now is to concentrate on any fundamental changes we should be making to our Imperial defence policy in order to come out of the forthcoming conflict as well as possible. Dr Erlang, do you have any observations to make?’

  Don, who had firmly placed himself by a window which he had managed to open slightly, wondered briefly what conclusions they had reached already. They seemed remarkably confident of their ability to cope without detailed advice once they had grasped the basic issues. Still, he had already prepared what he was going to say.

  ‘I will start with defensive measures before going on to the question of offensive action. First of all, top priority has to go to the measures needed to repel an invasion of the British Isles.’ He had their full attention. ‘This will involve a sophisticated aircraft detection and fighter control system backed by plenty of fighters, and fast bombers capable of attacking any invasion fleet. Strong fighter defence will also be necessary to provide cover for the naval units which will be engaged in attacking enemy vessels. Finally, mechanised divisions containing tanks, artillery, anti-aircraft vehicles and armoured troop transports need to be held in south-east England to respond rapidly to any landings. Above all, timely and accurate information will be needed to guide the defence effort so a robust communications network needs to be set up and thoroughly tested. I don’t just mean telephones and radios, but a co-ordinated, multi-service system for gathering informatio
n from a range of sources, analysing it and ensuring it is passed on to the relevant military commands as quickly as possible.’

  Much thoughtful nodding around the table.

  ‘The next priority will be to prevent the North Atlantic supply lines from being cut by submarine warfare. It nearly happened in the last war and is still the biggest threat.’

  Ruddy Face stirred uneasily and appeared to be about to say something. Don continued quickly. ‘I know the Navy feels confident that sonar – I mean Asdic – is the ultimate answer to submarines, but I can assure you that it isn’t that straightforward.’

  Ruddy Face looked appalled, but at a gesture from Chairman held his tongue.

  ‘Air cover is the key to defeating submarines,’ continued Don, warming to his theme and slipping into lecturing mode. ‘Maritime patrol squadrons should have priority in being issued with long-range aircraft. Incidentally, it would be advisable to hang onto those bases in the Republic of Ireland, and not allow the politicians to give them up before the war.’

  ‘Noted,’ observed Chairman drily.

  ‘Land-based air cover won’t be enough. Cheap aircraft carriers will also be needed to accompany convoys.’

  Creamed Curls was becoming increasingly agitated. ‘But bombers will surely be the main means of fighting war. They should have priority over any other type of aircraft.’

  ‘They will be important,’ conceded Don, ‘but once again it’s not that simple. Bombing has the potential to cause great destruction, but as a war-winning weapon it will not be as effective as many people fear.’

  Don saw real alarm on Creamed Curls’ face and remembered the bitter inter-service rivalry which had followed the end of the Great War, with the two older services trying to return to their pre-war pre-eminence and the newly-formed RAF fighting to preserve its independence. The RAF under Trenchard had taken to proclaiming the theories of Douhet and others who argued that bombing would be so destructive that it would supersede other methods of fighting. It had therefore become an article of faith in the RAF that the bomber would always get through, and could win wars by itself. He had a distinct feeling that Trenchard and his followers would be acutely unhappy about the message he was bringing.