THE FORESIGHT WAR

by Anthony G Williams

  The next stop was in Dorset, at another army camp busy with construction work. Some tanks were visible as they travelled through the site.

  ‘This must be Bovington Camp,’ guessed Don. Taylor merely smiled and led him into a large hangar-like building. An armed guard checked Taylor’s and Dunning’s passes carefully. Inside, some large shapes were covered with tarpaulins. A few men were sitting on boxes nearby, playing cards by the light filtering down from the skylights. They jumped up when they saw Taylor and moved to the shapes. Taylor was clearly enjoying himself, Dunning following quietly behind.

  ‘We’ll start with this one.’ The tarpaulin was pulled away, revealing a low squat tank, the sloping armour giving a streamlined look. ‘This is the Crusader. Eighteen tons, with two inches of armour on the turret and the frontal plate, one inch elsewhere. Engine at the front, beside the driver – a three hundred horsepower six-cylinder in-line unit; half a Rolls-Royce Merlin, actually. This leaves the rear half of the vehicle clear for the fighting compartment, in this case with a three-man turret mounting a two-pounder gun firing ammunition compatible with the Bofors forty millimetre AA gun – it makes resupply easier.’ Don caught Taylor’s wink as he remembered suggesting just that, in place of the very similar two-pounder ammunition historically used. ‘Thoroughly tested in a wide variety of conditions and about to enter mass production in three different factories.’ He moved on and more tarpaulins fell.

  ‘All of the rest are based on the same chassis. The Comet anti-aircraft tank, with two twenty-millimetre Oerlikons in a power-driven turret. The Cromwell assault tank, with thicker armour – up to three inches – and a twenty-five pounder field gun in the turret. The Centaur self-propelled gun with the new sixty-two pounder field gun in an armoured compartment. It’s a four-point-seven-inch gun firing the same shells, at a lower velocity, as the new navy dual purpose gun – which has incidentally also been adopted as the Army’s heavy AA gun – and replaces the old five-inch sixty-pounder. Next comes the Cavalier tank destroyer with the new seventeen pounder – essentially the new three-inch high-velocity AA gun – behind an armoured shield. Last but not least, this Covenanter armoured personnel carrier, with a high, extended body carrying ten infantrymen.’

  Don remembered the arguments about the anti-aircraft guns; his insistence on replacing the planned massive 3.7 inch with a smaller and much more mobile gun, which could do double duty as a tank/anti-tank gun, had evidently paid off.

  They moved away from the men to more shapes at the other side of the hanger. Taylor spoke more quietly. ‘Versions with more armour and more powerful guns are already fully developed, but we’re keeping them back until we need them. We’re also well advanced with testing the chassis of the next generation forty-tonner, with a turret large enough for the seventeen pounder gun or even bigger if required.’

  They approached the other vehicles. The small Daimler Dingo armoured reconnaissance vehicle was instantly recognisable, but the big, low-slung six-wheeled armoured cars were not.

  ‘These are made by Humber,’ announced Taylor. ‘Turret interchangeable with that in the tanks, so they can use similar armament. We’re also developing a range of cross-country lorries using the same mechanicals.’

  Don was in good humour after his tour around the Army bases. The following week, Helmsford arrived to brief him about progress with naval developments. Construction of the new battleships and aircraft carriers was proceeding apace, and the first of the fast, light carriers built on hulls originally intended for cruisers had been laid down. The new frigates, very light cruisers with four twin 4.7 inch dual-purpose turrets, were also taking shape. Then Helmsford changed the subject.

  ‘There’s something I’ve been meaning to ask you about. You mentioned two new German battlecruisers – what were they called?’

  ‘Scharnhorst and Gneisenau,’ Don replied promptly. ‘Fast well-armoured ships, over thirty thousand tons, nine eleven-inch guns. They should have been commissioned by now, but I’ve not read a peep about them in the press. Have our agents reported anything?’

  Helmsford looking at him curiously. ‘No, they haven’t,’ he said. Dunning suddenly leaned forward, some sixth sense warning him. Don felt a sudden chill. Helmsford continued. ‘We’ve been watching the German dockyards carefully, even ‘accidentally’ overflying them with photo-reconnaissance aircraft. The Germans are not building any more big ships. Nothing but small destroyers and submarines.’

  Don stared aghast. ‘But we’ve done nothing…nothing that could cause them to change their naval strategy as drastically as this.’

  Dunning’s breath hissed between his teeth. ‘If you were helping Germany instead of us, would you advise them to build big ships?’

  Don looked at him helplessly. ‘No,’ he said. ‘They were a waste of resources.’

  Helmsford passed him a photograph. ‘What do you make of that? It was taken in the Baltic.’

  It was an oblique view of a sleek hull, low in the water, topped by a slender fin. There were no guns or other distinguishing features, except for a periscope-like object with an unusually massive head. Don stared, appalled.

  ‘It’s an Elektroboot – a high-speed submarine,’ he whispered.

  ‘When are they supposed to emerge?’ Dunning asked sharply.

  Don swallowed. ‘Nineteen forty-five.’

  The three men looked at each other, none wanting to put into words the icy certainty forming in their minds. Eventually Dunning spoke.

  ‘That’s torn it,’ he said quietly. He looked at the white-faced Erlang. ‘They’ve got someone like you, haven’t they? Someone just like you.’

  CHAPTER 2 - PRELUDE

  Spring 1938

  Don felt a powerful sense of déjà vu. The smoky room was the same and, with the exception of Elderly Cigar, the men were the same, despite the passage of time. It was the first meeting of this group Don had attended for over three years; he still did not know the names of the men, although Dunning had told him that the group was called the Oversight Committee. Unlike the air of perplexed scepticism which had greeted his previous visits, the mood was one of anxious tension. Chairman drew deeply on a cigarette.

  ‘We’ve all heard the evidence, and have agreed that it’s a strong indication that the Nazis are also receiving advice from the future. We now need to review the impact on our strategy.’

  No-one spoke. Even Diplomat looked grim and worried. Don realised that they were upset not just by the threat of a suddenly uncertain war, but by the concepts that they were trying to grapple with. Their known, predictable world was becoming dangerously unstable. They had lost control of their situation and no longer knew what to do.

  Don cleared his throat. ‘I have been giving some thought to this. We essentially have a three-level problem. First, what would Hitler have done given the sort of knowledge I have. Second, what would he do if he also knew that Britain had similar foreknowledge of events. Third, how would his actions be affected if he also knew that we knew that he had such knowledge?’

  Diplomat recovered a little of his sense of humour. ‘If he knows that we know that he knows that we know…’ he murmured. Chairman glared briefly at him then turned to Don with something of the air of a drowning man thrown a lifeline.

  ‘Let’s take the simplest case first. How would you have advised Hitler?’

  Don settled into his lecture. ‘There were certain key strategic errors which lost Germany the war. Declaring war on the USA was one of the biggest and certainly the most unnecessary in terms of Hitler’s objectives.’

  Military Man frowned. ‘What about the attack on the Soviet Union? You’ve always said that Germany would have lost that war even if the Americans and ourselves hadn’t invaded France.’

  ‘It wasn’t the attack that was the mistake, but the aftermath. Many of the states of the Soviet Union were sick to death of the Russians in general and Stalin in particular. The invading German army was welcomed with open arms in many places. If Hitler had offered
states such as the Ukraine and the Baltic countries independence under an overall Reich oversight, regardless of whether he intended to stick to it, he very likely would have had firm allies against Russia. Instead, he treated them as underpeople and unleashed the SS on them. As a result, he managed to weld the Soviet Union together into a formidable and single-minded enemy. That lost Germany the war, not just on the eastern front but altogether.’

  There was a thoughtful pause. ‘That seems to be poetic justice,’ observed Diplomat, ‘but I’m not sure where it takes us.’

  ‘What about the potential for alliances?’ The curls were still creamed if somewhat greyer. ‘Can’t we tie the Soviets to us now in order to pre-empt Germany’s non-aggression pact with them?’

  Military Man was dismissive. ‘Given Stalin’s purges of the officer corps, the Soviet armed forces are more of a liability than an asset, and will be for some time to come.’

  ‘They’re unlikely to want to get involved unless they are convinced that they’re being directly threatened in any case,’ added Diplomat, ‘on the other hand, they could be useful in restraining Japan.’

  ‘What chance is there of bringing in the Americans?’

  ‘None. Roosevelt is sympathetic, but America in general is more isolationist than ever before.’

  There was a pause broken by Chairman, who turned to Don. ‘Go on’, he said grimly, ‘what else?’

  Don shrugged. ‘Letting Britain off the hook in nineteen-forty was a major mistake, of course. More thorough prewar preparation would probably have led to the defeat of Britain.’ Ruddy Face shifted uncomfortably. Don went on hastily. ‘The emphasis on high-performance submarines rather than heavy surface ships is clear. We can also expect to see heavy bombers entering Luftwaffe service; that was one of the few technical areas the Germans never got right. Finally, I expect much attention is being given to tank landing ships and the like. And when it comes to tactics, they will have two priorities; the neutralisation of the Royal Navy with mines, submarines and air attacks to prevent interference with an invasion, and the capture of the British Expeditionary Force. They will not permit a Dunkirk this time around.’

  Chairman looked at him sourly. ‘Is that it?’

  ‘Basically, yes. The Germans didn’t make many mistakes in fighting the war. Fortunately for my time, the ones they did make were big ones. There is one thing that I’m finding it hard to understand, though.’ They looked expectantly. ‘The Nazis were utterly reviled and rejected in my time, nowhere more so than in Germany. They were so sensitive about militarism, I simply can’t understand how any educated German from my time could help Hitler to win the war.’

  The others looked uncomprehending. ‘If he’s a German, he’ll support the Germans, surely. In fact,’ Chairman gestured at the photographs of the electroboat, ‘he obviously is.’

  Creamed Curls leaned forward anxiously. ‘What can we do to stop them this time?’

  ‘Some of the actions we’re already taking. If we keep our army out of France and prepare our defences we can still make a German invasion difficult if not impossible. The advanced anti-submarine equipment and methods we are working on should be able to cope with the electroboats, albeit with much more difficulty. Unfortunately there’s nothing we can do about the other matters. In fact, if the Germans advise the Japanese about the outcome of their attack on America, they might refrain and thereby keep the Americans out of the war altogether.’

  Diplomat leaned back thoughtfully. ‘I’m not certain the situation is quite as bad as that. For a start, the Japanese are both suspicious and arrogant, and probably won’t believe the Germans unless they provide them with incontrovertible evidence, which they may be reluctant to do for the same reasons that we’re keeping quiet about you.’ He carefully fitted another cigarette into his holder. ‘I have also been studying all the information you’ve provided about Hitler. He is clearly not entirely rational and might not be prepared to listen to sensible advice. His racism is so intense, so integral to his entire philosophy, that he might not be able to refrain from his treatment of Jews and the eastern peoples.’

  Chairman sighed. ‘And that’s the easy situation? Now, what’s likely to change if Hitler knows that we know?’

  ‘That could depend to some extent on when he knows. So far, we haven’t done anything publicly except amend the battleship armament calibre from fourteen to fifteen inches, which is subtle enough to be missed. The longer we can keep him in the dark the better. That means concealing some of the new developments for as long as possible. Once my opposite number sees the angled decks on the aircraft carriers, the proverbial will hit the fan.’

  The others looked momentarily mystified, then Ruddy Face grunted. ‘That won’t be long, then. The first two Ark Royal class vessels are due for completion this year.’

  ‘Have you noticed any alterations to German actions which might indicate that they know about you?’ Chairman enquired.

  Don considered. ‘There’s a lot happening but it all sounds familiar.’ He started ticking points off on his fingers. ‘Hitler is now exercising personal command over the armed forces, has set up a Cabinet Council to advise on foreign policy, forced the Minister of War and the Army Commander-in-Chief to resign together with many other senior officers unsympathetic to Nazism. He is putting heavy pressure on the Austrians prior to declaring the union of Austria with Germany. Business as usual.’

  ‘So what is he likely to do when he does find out?’ Creamed Curls was sounding increasingly anxious.

  ‘Almost impossible to say. He first has to assess what we’re likely to do. We considered our strategic options the last time we met, and Hitler will be faced with the same possibilities. As far as he’s concerned, those could range from our declaring war over Czechoslovakia to staying out of the war altogether. When the truth dawns on him, he ought to be a very worried man.’

  Hitler wasn’t worried yet but Konrad Herrman certainly was, albeit for quite different reasons; he was not a naval expert and the significance of the amendment to the details of the Second London Naval Treaty had passed him by. He was reviewing his personal strategy for at least the thousandth time since waking up seventy years in his past, and was increasingly aware of the tightrope he was walking. He lay back on his bed and sighed, feeling sick and weary to the core, and thought through the arguments again.

  The demolition of the Berlin Wall had shattered the prison in which he had spent all of his adult life, and had enabled him to resume his academic career. He had been brought up by his grandparents, his mother dying in the aftermath of the Red Army’s final onslaught on Berlin, his father in the Soviet prison camp he had been taken to within weeks of Herrman’s birth. His youthful interest in history had been encouraged by his teachers and had secured him first a place as an undergraduate, then as a postgraduate researcher, and finally as a professor. That was when the trouble started. His curiosity had unveiled inconsistencies in the official version of the Great Patriotic War; his stubbornness had led him to investigate areas frowned on by the Party. The result: rapid deflection into a routine clerical post away from sensitive material. His young wife had been unable to stand the shame and had left him to bring up Stefan alone.

  Stefan. He was able to think of his son now without anguish, just a deep, sad, sense of loss. The boy had been brilliant; sharp, keen, full of life and laughter. And fatally impatient. Herrman thought of the Wall again and felt the familiar tension in his stomach, the hate slowly burning. Stefan had been one of its last victims, unable to wait to be freed by the changes already in the air. Herrman tensed his muscles for a few seconds then released them with a deep sigh. He was right. His past must not be repeated. Stalin must not win.

  He rolled on his side, trying to shut out the memories of the terrible photographs, the appalling names. Auschwitz. Belsen. Buchenwald. Treblinka. Could he do it? Could he stop all of this from happening again? Was it possible to find a middle way between the excesses of Hitler and Stalin – to preserve Germ
any but use the influence given him by his unique position to steer the country down a more civilised road? He didn’t know, but he felt his determination firming afresh; he was going to do everything he could to try. First and foremost, for Germany to stand any chance against the Soviet Union, Britain had to be knocked out of the war as soon as possible.

  ‘It’s happened then.’ Mary walked into the library, holding a message slip from the communications unit based at the house. ‘Hitler moved into Austria on March the fifteenth, exactly on schedule.’

  Don nodded resignedly. As he had predicted, all of the efforts of von Schuschnigg, the Austrian Chancellor, to preserve his country’s independence had failed. A last-minute attempt to hold a plebiscite to determine the wishes of the people had been blocked by German pressure, which had then forced the resignation of von Schuschnigg in favour of the Nazi, von Seyss-Inquart. Anschluss – the incorporation of Austria into the Reich – had followed.

  She sat in an easy chair and looked at Don. ‘Next will come Czechoslovakia. Are we sure that the politicians will keep us out of this one? From what you said before, there’s quite a risk of war.’

  ‘I think we’re safe. Chamberlain is no war-monger, and I know that the Foreign Office has been pressing him not to get Britain involved. The only reason that Chamberlain is trying to mediate is that he’s afraid that if Germany does invade Czechoslovakia, France might feel bound to go to her defence, and Britain could be dragged in later. If all goes well – for us, that is, not the Czechs – Hitler’s informant will have no reason to suspect my existence from any changes in our policy.’

  ‘Is there any risk that the Czechs will fight this time? They’ve been making a lot of defence preparations.’

  ‘They did last time, but it won’t do them any good. Germany is too strong for the Czechs to stand up to alone. Even if they do fight, and Germany defeats them militarily, I can’t see that making much difference to subsequent events. Poland will be next on Hitler’s list, to enable him to get at the Soviet Union.’