THE FORESIGHT WAR

by Anthony G Williams

  ‘May I join you or is this a private expedition?’ Stadler’s sardonic voice jarred him back to reality.

  ‘Please yourself,’ he said resignedly.

  His guard and companion fell into step and they walked for a while in silence.

  ‘I’ve noticed you’re inclined to spend more and more time on these solitary rambles. Is this a sudden urge to commune with nature or achieve athletic prowess perhaps?’

  Herrman laughed shortly. ‘Hardly that. It’s just that there isn’t much else to do, cooped up in here. I hardly have a function anymore.’

  ‘Oh, I don’t know. The Führer likes to have you at his nightly table talks in the tea house. I’m sure you remain a constant source of comfort and inspiration to him.’

  They walked on in silence for a while, past the cinema and towards Göring’s house. Herrman tried in vain to recover his earlier equanimity, the presence by his side a silent but continuous pressure. Eventually he stopped with a sigh. ‘I have this terrible feeling of having set some huge juggernaut into motion, then watching it veer off course toward destruction.’

  The SD man’s eyebrows lifted. ‘My, you are in a pessimistic mood. I can’t think why; the news from the front could hardly be better. All three Army Groups are ahead of schedule and the Soviets have taken appalling casualties. They’ve lost thousands of tanks and aircraft and hundreds of thousands of men – in fact OKH reckons they’re past the million mark. And there’s no sign of any slowdown. Long before autumn is here, we’ll be in Moscow and the Soviets will have run out of equipment and men.’

  ‘Unfortunately they can replace both at an astonishing rate, and still have vast stretches of territory to fall back into.’

  Stadler started walking again and Herrman reluctantly followed. They turned left at the crossroads to walk past the Keitel Bunker, the sun strong on their backs. ‘Is this the same man who has spent years convincing our Führer of the evils of Stalin’s system and the importance of crushing it? What has changed?’

  ‘Nothing in principle. It’s the practice that bothers me. These Einsatzgruppen.’

  ‘Ah-ha. Your liberal sentimentality is surfacing again. You really must do something about that.’

  Herrman shook his head. ‘It isn’t even that, although God knows I can’t see the point of killing all those civilians just for the sake of it. No, it’s the consequences that bother me. Our troops were welcomed with open arms in the Ukraine, the Baltic states, even in eastern Poland, God help us. With the right handling, we could have had all of those nations on our side, fighting alongside us. Instead, we’re turning them into implacable enemies, with partisan activity already being reported. It just increases the depth of enemy territory we have to operate in. On top of that, the order for the liquidation of all captured Red Army political commissars just stiffens their resistance. I’ve explained all of this to Hitler, countless times. I can’t understand why he won’t listen.’

  Stadler laughed grimly. ‘Actually, that’s your fault. With your information, he’s been able to plan a decisive campaign with much better equipment and the power to sustain the effort for as long as it takes. He is quite certain of victory so sees no need to make concessions to the Untermenschen.’

  ‘I would feel more confident of that if only I could stop him from interfering. The OKH and the Army Group commanders know what they’re doing – they’re the most capable set of professional soldiers on Earth.’ They bore left along the main road, passing between the Kasino and the Wehrmacht-Adjutant’s office.

  ‘The Führer’s bold and inspired guidance has led the Wehrmacht to historic success.’ Herrman glanced at him but there was not the slightest trace of irony in his expression. Stadler was too good at his job to reveal anything.

  ‘His bold and inspired political leadership has, yes. It’s just that as soon as the armies start rolling, he turns into a nervous meddler.’

  The SD man glanced around hastily. ‘I’d be a little more judicious in my choice of words, if I were you. You might be favoured but you’re not immune.’

  ‘Then there’s his siege mentality,’ Herrman ploughed on regardless. ‘All he cares about is establishing defensible eastern boundaries which include sufficient economic assets. He doesn’t seem to realise that unless he completely destroys the Soviet regime, they’ll just lick their wounds and rebuild their forces, safe behind the Urals, ready to continue the struggle. This obsession with capturing Leningrad and the Ukraine instead of aiming straight for Moscow.’

  ‘Well, you won that one, at least.’

  ‘Only just, and only because the entire General Staff was behind me.’

  Stadler laughed. ‘That isn’t necessarily a recommendation, in the Führer’s eyes.’

  ‘They know what they’re talking about,’ Herrman continued stubbornly. It was as if the frustrations building up inside him had to be released. ‘It’s standard and well-tried doctrine to choose a Schwerpunkt for maximum effort and stick to it, instead of dispersing the Army across half Russia. If we try to grab everything at once, we run the risk of ending up with nothing.’

  ‘But you’ve said yourself that the longer we give the Russians to recover from our onslaught and organise their defences, the harder the job will be. We have to seize as much as we can, while the initiative is ours.’

  Herrman sighed. ‘I know. Perhaps we have bitten off more than we can chew. I did want Hitler to wait until after the British were defeated before opening up a second front.’

  Stadler laughed. ‘Well, Guderian agreed with you there, and much good did it do him. Besides, you are forgetting that your own information correctly indicated that the Soviets were in the middle of a military restructuring and had just begun to re-equip. They would have been a much tougher target had we waited a year. And then, the Führer is impatient.’

  ‘I know.’ Neither of them needed to comment on Hitler’s obsession with his health and mortality, his nervous determination to achieve as much as possible while he still could.

  They stopped outside the liaison barracks where they both lived. ‘Look on the bright side,’ Stadler said expansively, ‘we’re winning the war, it’s summer, and we are staying for free in a delightful resort.’ Herrman laughed reluctantly. The Rastenburg FHQ was a scatter of camouflaged bunkers and other buildings hidden in a wood and surrounded by several layers of security.

  ‘I didn’t know it was possible to suffer from claustrophobia out of doors. Still, it’s nice to know some things are still predictable.’ Stadler raised an eyebrow. ‘The Führer called this place ‘Wolfsschanze’ in my time, too.’

  The mood of Hitler’s daily Lagebesprechung was buoyant, as usual. Keitel and Jodl, respectively Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Head of Operations in the OKW, were not inclined to be critical. In any case, there was no apparent reason to be so. Herrman had been invited to attend, for once; possibly because none of the more forceful OKH or Army Group commanders, with whom he might agree, were present. After a rambling discourse from the Führer on the Wehrmacht’s successful implementation of his ideas, the question turned to future priorities.

  ‘We have agreed,’ this with an ironic glance at Herrman, ‘that the current priority remains the destruction of the Soviet forces which are now concentrated for the defence of Moscow. Now the conversion of the railway gauge has been completed as far as Smolensk, OKH has stated that the army will soon be sufficiently rested and reequipped to begin Operation Typhoon.’

  The obsequious Keitel nodded happily, for once able to agree with both his Führer and OKH. ‘It will be better to secure Moscow while we have them on the run and before the Siberian troops can be deployed. At this time of the year, we are assured of plenty of daylight and good flying weather for Luftwaffe support.’

  ‘What is the current assessment of the balance of forces?’

  Keitel turned to Jodl, who did not need to check his notes. ‘Casualties have been higher than we might have expected, given the scale of the Soviet defeats, sim
ply because the political commissars ensured that their troops kept on attacking even in the most hopeless situations. However, we are back up to twenty-five Panzer and a similar number of motorized divisions, together with fifty infantry divisions. Half of these are in Army Group Centre, which will be heading straight from Smolensk to Moscow and will therefore face the toughest resistance. While the bulk of the Soviet troops are being pinned in front of Moscow, the Panzer and motorised divisions of Army Group North will be aiming to circle behind the city to cut off any further reinforcements. The northern infantry divisions will remain in holding positions for the time being. Meanwhile, Army Group South will be continuing the destruction of the relatively strong Soviet forces in the Ukraine.’

  ‘And the Soviets?’

  ‘They are in such a mess that I doubt if they know themselves. At the beginning of Barbarossa they had around three hundred divisions, including fifty armoured. Their casualties and equipment losses have been almost incredible and what they have left is mostly disorganised. They have twenty to twenty-five divisions in Siberia, but are hesitating to move them because of the potential threat from Japan. We believe they have managed to raise another twenty divisions, mostly of infantry, to block the way to Moscow. Nevertheless, the current estimate is that Moscow will fall two weeks after Operation Typhoon begins.’

  ‘And after that?’

  ‘The plans are for a double encirclement of the remaining Soviet forces. Some of the Panzer and motorized divisions will head north to cut off Leningrad and, with the aid of the Finns, crush the defending troops there against the anvil of our infantry divisions already in place. The remainder will head south-east to meet a north-eastern thrust by Army Group South. By the end of September, we should have destroyed all organised opposition and be in control of Russian territory up to the Volga. That will give us time to consolidate our position before the worst of the weather sets in.’

  Herrman felt moved to contribute. ‘The Russians will not be stopped by winter. Unless we can persuade the Japanese to attack, they will have reinforcements from Siberia as well as many new divisions raised by the spring, equipped from the factories they have moved east of the Urals.’

  Hitler was dismissive. ‘The Japanese will not attack; they still remember the bloody nose they received from Zhukov in Manchuria when they adventured there a few years ago; besides, they are fully engaged in China and the rest of their attention is on the south. But it does not matter. By the spring, our forces will be still stronger and equipped with tanks and aircraft which will beat anything that the Russians have. They may not know it yet, but they are already finished.’

  The Major commanding the Panzer IV Kompanie of the 900th Panzer Brigade stood in the turret and watched with quiet satisfaction the retreat of a force of Panzertransportwagen half-tracks in the valley below. They were fleeing in good order, keeping well ahead of the pursuing T 34s. The Major scanned the advancing mass and estimated there were at least a hundred of the fast Russian tanks, some with tankriding infantry clinging to handholds on them. He shuddered briefly at the sight; scarcely a satisfactory substitute for armoured personnel carriers.

  He calculated that it would be at least ten minutes before action commenced, so he settled back to wait. His force was now just a few kilometres from Moscow, after fifteen days of hard fighting. The Russians had thrown everything at the advancing Germans; troops not yet trained, tanks straight off their Moscow production lines. They had help, too; suicidal soldiers equipped with British PIATs had hidden as the wave of Panzers swept past then emerged to knock out a tank with monotonous regularity. To prevent this, Panzergrenadiers had had to be sent to clear the ground first, but this had slowed the advance and led to heavy casualties among them from machine gun and artillery fire. It was all rather difficult and depressing.

  The same could be said for the increasing numbers of Bristol Brigands, flown over from Norway, which for the first time had posed an aerial threat to the Wehrmacht formations. One had been shot down near his unit the other day, and the Major had been surprised to find that the pilot had been British. Apparently, the original plan to hand them over to the Soviet Air Force had been abandoned because of the shortage of time for training.

  The Soviets had been learning, too. Their tanks no longer offered convenient targets by cruising along crest lines, and their initial total disorganisation had been replaced by more systematic tactics, concentrating on punching into the side of the advancing Panzer streams, cutting off the leading units from their support. He smiled mirthlessly. This time, they had tried the ploy once too often.

  As the first T34s crossed his path, he glanced to either side at his comrades just below the crestline. The 900th was a special Panzer Brigade, made up exclusively of armoured warfare instructors gaining first-hand experience, and they had been given the new tank, already dubbed Panther, to try out. Now was the time. He issued a terse instruction over the radio net and all twenty-two of the formidable forty ton Panzers edged forward to expose their turrets. On the far side of the valley a kilometre away, he could just make out movement as their fellow Kompanie took up position.

  ‘Start with the lead tanks,’ he instructed the gunner. ‘Bearing one hundred degrees, range six hundred metres.’ Electric motors hummed as the huge turret swung and steadied, the long barrel of the 8,8 cm cannon questing forward.

  ‘I see him.’

  ‘Fire at will.’ The vicious bang as the gun fired was echoed almost immediately as his comrades opened up. Tracer after tracer streamed towards the hapless T34s which slowed and milled in confusion, uncertain of the source of attack. Tank after tank stopped, smoke pouring from them, as the heavy, high-velocity shot slammed home. The T34s’ well-sloped armour could not save them; the Major watched in astonishment as a tank turret was blasted clean off.

  Some of the Russian tank crews spotted the half-hidden Panthers and returned fire. The Major was momentarily stunned by a huge clang which shook his tank, and a blurred image of a shape flashing past him. It took him a second to realise that his tank had suffered a direct hit, but the Panther’s 10 cm of sloped armour had deflected the shot. A shade further over, he reflected, and the ricochet would have taken his head off.

  An urgent call shifted his attention back down the valley. More shapes could be seen rumbling belatedly to the rescue of the slaughtered T34s. ‘KV1s!’ he said out loud, ‘this is getting interesting!’ The Panther eased forward into a new firing position. This would be a real test of the new tank’s mettle. Having lost the element of surprise, they would have to slug it out with the formidably armoured Russian heavy tanks.

  ‘Armour piercing. Bearing thirty degrees. Range about twelve hundred metres. Fire at will.’ The cannon banged again and again, until the Major felt deafened even with his headphones on. His gunner stopped firing when smoke and flames obscured the view. The Germans waited for a while, but none of the KV1s emerged. As he looked down at his tank, he saw the scars of two more hits. He looked along the line of Panthers. All of them began to move forward, unharmed.

  The Generalmajor of Army Group Centre’s staff concluded his summary of the progress of Operation Typhoon. The visitors from OKH, he noted, appeared to be reserving their judgment.

  ‘So while acknowledging that progress varies across the front according to local conditions, Army Group Centre appears to be about five days behind schedule,’ the Generalleutnant leading the group commented. ‘What are main factors causing that?’

  ‘It is a combination of factors. On the material side, the appearance of the British PIATs and Brigands was an unwelcome surprise and has led to noticeable Panzer losses. What is worse, they have enforced a change in tactics which costs time. The introduction of these ‘Katyusha’ artillery rockets was also unexpected and is causing problems, particularly for the infantry. The launchers are very mobile and the arrival of scores of high-explosive warheads simultaneously has a bad effect on morale. As far as armour is concerned, the Panzer Three is as well protected as the
T34 and the latest version with the long seven-point-five centimetre gun is much better armed, so it can kill T34s at one thousand metres while remaining safe down to five hundred. However, they are having a real problem dealing with the KV Ones. The gun/armour balance is such that each can start hurting the other at about five hundred metres. The Jagdpanzer and the new Panther tank easily have the measure of even the KV – the eight-point-eight centimetre gun with the new sub-calibre ammunition can penetrate at over one thousand metres while they are virtually immune to anything the Russians can throw at them – but they are only now being introduced in some numbers. Tactically, the Russians under Zhukov are learning fast. They are making much more use of minefields and covering them with anti-tank guns and artillery. They have also become good at deception, building false defence lines for us to attack while concealing the real defences which then take us by surprise. This is inevitably slowing down progress. It appears that the entire population of Moscow has been mobilised to build earthwork defences and the Russian soldiers fight with fanatical courage until they are surrounded, when they give up quickly.’ He looked round at his audience for emphasis. ‘In many ways, this is more like a seige than the open-country fighting we have become used to, so there are no quick solutions.’

  The Generalleutnant nodded. ‘Army Group North are facing less resistance in their drive to cut off the city; that seems to have taken Stavka by surprise. Let’s hope that the predilection of the Russians to surrender when surrounded applies to the whole city. We are already receiving reports of civil disorder since their Government fled to Kuybyshev; the city authorities have declared martial law.’

  The sunshine gleamed on the feathers of the ducks as they squabbled over food. Don and Mary watched for a moment, enjoying the simple pleasures of a warm summer’s day, before strolling on around St James’s Park.

  ‘It seems hard to believe, that it can still be so peaceful here,’ Mary murmured. Don grimaced and nodded. The newspaper reports were still fresh in their minds: the appalling losses suffered by the Russians, now amounting to millions dead or captured, the apparent destruction of Stavka’s ability to put up any effective defence and, perhaps above all, the photographs of the ranks of massive Panther tanks, lined up in Red Square.