THE FORESIGHT WAR

by Anthony G Williams

  The voices of other pilots came thick and fast over the Reichsjägerwelle, the fighter broadcast frequency, as their pilots all set course for the capital. The hunt was on!

  The Flight Lieutenant in the Pathfinder Mosquito was concerned. The preceding weather plane had warned of continuous cloud cover over Berlin; the bombers would not be able to see the target. The Pathfinders would have to use sky markers to indicate the target to the following bombers, and that was never as accurate.

  He ran through the figures in his head. The Mosquito was equipped with a comprehensive array of navigational aids as well as the big Target Indicator flare which occupied the remainder of the bomb bay. The Oboe radio navigation system was the most precise of them, able to locate them to an accuracy of 150 yards which was plenty good enough for blind bombing. Unfortunately it had a maximum range of 250 miles from Britain at a height of 30,000 ft, which was not good enough to reach Berlin. On a trip like this, it could only be used as an aid to dropping route-marking flares, which would reassure the following bomber stream that they were on course. In theory, they all had their own navigation aids but the electronic devices were notoriously unreliable.

  Gee was the other radio navigation system carried by the Pathfinders. It had a much longer range, at least in theory, and a transmitter in Norway helped to extend the system, but the accuracy of only 6 miles was not good enough for blind bombing. In any case the Heinrich jamming stations were powerful enough to swamp the Gee transmissions as they approached Germany, so it was of limited use.

  The final aid was the new lightweight H2S ground-mapping radar set, which had only recently been miniaturised sufficiently to be carried by the Mosquito. This was also carried by many of the bombers, but Berlin was a notoriously difficult radar target; it was just too big and dispersed. Even when the aid worked properly, the available accuracy was only to within one or two miles, not good enough to hit the target factory. They would have to go down and find it the hard way. He glanced at the navigator, squashed into the cramped seat beside him, studying the radar image.

  ‘How far are we from the target?’

  ‘About ten miles.’

  ‘Stand by to drop Target Indicator.’

  ‘Standing by.’

  ‘We must concentrate our efforts in both production and organisation. Otherwise we will never have the resources we need.’ Speer was being as firm as ever, relentlessly drilling home his main theme, but Herrman was not sure he would succeed this time.

  ‘But, my Führer,’ reasoned Himmler, ‘it really is better to allow privately-owned industries to manage their own affairs. Everyone knows that management by government is inherently inefficient.’

  Just as almost everybody knows, thought Herrman, that Himmler was trying to ensure that the SS took over as many key industries as possible in order to give themselves a private source of supply, away from the interference of the government. In this argument he had the acquiescence of the other Nazi warlords, who were all competing to extend their power bases by controlling as much of the economy as possible. Speer had an uphill task ahead of him.

  ‘I’m not talking about trying to manage the businesses. I’m talking about coordinating their efforts in order to ensure that the right materials are being produced in the right quantities. To achieve that, we must obtain central planning control while decentralising management responsibility.’ Speer leaned forward, trying to communicate his vision. ‘If we establish a Main Committee for each type of production – for example weapons – and Main Rings of factories concerned with the appropriate raw materials and intermediate products, such as alloy steels, we can ensure a continuity of planning from iron ore to gun.’

  Göring, who for once had joined forces with Himmler in an attempt to stave off the threat from Speer, took a different tack. ‘Who will decide what is made? Who will control development and production? That is the responsibility of the individual services who must know what is best for their needs.’

  ‘The problem with the present system is that the services state their needs without any interest in, or knowledge of, how they may be met. They might ask for things which are simply impossible to make. Under my system, the Wehrmacht will still formulate their requirements and be responsible for approving the finished product, but the development and production will be the responsibility of industry, in consultation with the military of course.’

  Himmler returned to the attack. ‘And how exactly would this centralised organisation cope with the sort of bombing raids our industry is facing now?’

  Göring stirred, uncomfortable with this line of argument. The failure of his beloved Luftwaffe to live up to his prewar boasts that no enemy bombs would fall on Germany was a sore point.

  ‘We will decentralise production as well as management. Manufacture elements of a weapon in many different places and only bring them together for final assembly. We are already doing this with the new submarines; it minimises the amount of time they spend in the dockyards, vulnerable to bombing.’

  ‘But that would only make your system vulnerable to disruptions in the transport network. Hit the railways and it all grinds to a halt.’

  Göring interrupted, steering the discussion onto safer ground. ‘But what about our people? If all of our efforts are concentrated on producing munitions, what will be for sale in the shops? What kind of life will our women and children have?’

  A lot better than they would get if Stalin’s armies roll through Germany again, thought Herrman, but he knew better than to take on Göring and Himmler, who then produced his trump card. ‘Why, our friend here would have our womenfolk working in factories instead of looking after their husbands and children!’

  Hitler’s emphasis on preserving normal family life was well known. Up to now he had listened to the arguments in silence, but he suddenly turned to Herrman. ‘What does my policy adviser think of all this?’

  Herrman felt his heart sink and his bowels clench with dread. He fought down a desperate need for a drink and tried to compose his thoughts, to walk the tightrope between letting Germany continue on its disastrous course and earning the bitter enmity of the Nazi warlords. ‘Of course,’ he temporised, ‘the Minister of Munitions is correct that we should ensure that our war production is as efficient as possible, but we must not forget the importance of preserving family life and the well-being of our people.’

  Hitler grunted in what sounded like approval, then dismissed them without giving his views. Outside, Speer hung back to talk to Herrman.

  ‘I understand you advise our Führer about general policy. Do you think he will accept the need for the policies I described?’

  Herrman was wryly amused at the opportunity to show his omniscence. ‘You’ll get most of it,’ he predicted, ‘Göring can’t really be bothered with anything as mundane as industry, but you won’t beat Himmler.’

  Speer walked thoughtfully beside him, obviously choosing his words, unsure of Herrman’s exact status and influence. ‘We are beginning to get real problems with manpower. Too many Germans have been conscripted, and the impressed workers that Todt use are of relatively little value. We must mobilise our economy for all-out war, in the same way that the Russians and even the British have done.’

  ‘Just how much damage to production are the RAF raids doing?’

  Speer shrugged. ‘Not as much as you might think. Machine tools are extremely hard to damage. We find factories blown apart and burnt out, but most of the machinery still intact, so we can get back to work again quite quickly. The main problem is when the workers lose their homes or are scared away. And Himmler was correct about the transport issue, of course. If the railway system is disrupted, we have real problems.’

  Herrman was curious to get to know this able organiser, of whom he had read so much in his previous existence. ‘Is the Luftwaffe not getting on top of the problem?’

  Speer shrugged again. ‘I think their priorities are wrong. Before the war they took the view that bombers could not do mu
ch damage. If they tried to fly low and straight to hit the target, the Flak would get them. If they flew higher or tried to weave to avoid the Flak, they wouldn’t hit the target. Away from the target area, the fighters would get them. If they tried to bomb at night, our new Freya radars would spot them, and and Würzburg radars could control night-fighters as well as Flak.’ He sighed. ‘Experience has shown that it isn’t as simple as that, of course. The bombers swamp our night-fighter control system by streaming through the Kammhuber Line in such concentrated formations that fighters only have time to be zeroed onto a few of them. Then there are the countermeasures to our radar which often leave us fighting blind. Also, there aren’t enough fighters. For an air force, the Luftwaffe places a surprising amount of reliance on their Flak defence, in order to disrupt the bombers over the target. Yet statistics prove that night-fighters are two to three times more effective than Flak, in terms of the resources involved. Even if we had the fighters, we would have problems with finding enough pilots. Not enough are being trained, and they are not being rotated or promoted to the staff so the lessons they are learning are not being passed upwards.’

  ‘What are the production bottlenecks you are experiencing?’

  Speer sighed again. ‘There is a constant competition for resources – for Flak, fighters, bombers, U-boats, tanks and radar. This leads to a shortage of some raw materials, such as aluminium and wolfram. Too much aluminium goes into Flak shell fuzes, and there is a great demand for wolfram for Hartkernmunition,’ he said, referring to the tungsten-cored armour-piercing shot which had dramatically improved the performance of anti-tank guns. ‘Also, it’s difficult to get the production balance right between offensive and defensive weapons. Our Führer is very concerned to take the offensive at every opportunity, so he is keen on bombers and these new pilotless missiles. The problem is that each heavy bomber costs many times as much as a fighter, and the V-weapons are taking a huge development effort. Then there is radar. Our electronics resources are being focused more on radio navigation systems than radar, because they help the bombers. We’re also having to make a major effort to catch up with the new centimetre-wave technology, which has real potential in guiding anti-aircraft missiles.’ He turned to Herrman, clearly keen to persuade him. ‘If we don’t put more effort into defence, we may lose the capability to make the offensive weapons our Führer wants.’

  I know, thought Herrman, I know that all too well.

  ‘We have a Kurier for you.’ The Fighter Control Officer’s calm voice had an edge of triumph. The Oberstleutnant knew that the Naxos and Korfu systems used by ground stations would have been on the alert to get a bearing on any transmissions from the Rotterdamgerät (H2S) carried by the bombers. When they were close enough, his Heinkel’s own Naxos-Z system would pick them up. He listened carefully to the coordinates and adjusted his course. It was probably a Mosquito Zeremonienmeister, guiding in the other bombers. The Pathfinders were fast, but they were on a converging course, and closing in. His headphones crackled again. Berlin was covered by cloud, but it was thin enough for the Leichentuch tactic. He edged the straining Heinkel to a still greater height. They would not need to use the ‘Schräge Musik’ guns tonight.

  Suddenly, the ground appeared to glow pale grey. The Oberstleutnant grinned wolfishly. The Leichentuch was working! The defenders of Berlin had turned their searchlights onto the base of the layer of cloud blanketing the great city, illuminating it to create a glowing background against which aircraft could easily be spotted from above; a tactic ghoulishly known to the nightfighters as the “shroud”.

  There! Just crossing ahead and below! The slender, fleeting shape of a Mosquito speeding on its way to the target. The Oberstleutnant threw the Heinkel into a shallow, curving dive, the note of the big twelve-cylinder Daimler-Benz DB 603 engines rising painfully up the scale as the Nachtjäger accelerated.

  ‘Ente in sight!’, he yelled.

  ‘Machen Sie Pauke-Pauke,’ the ground controller shouted. The Oberstleutnant hardly heard the excited instructions of his radar operator. He needed no such guidance now. The British plane slowly drifted across the Revi sight, slipping into the centre as the Oberstleutnant pressed the firing button. The big MK 103 cannon roared into life, the Minengeschoss shells speeding towards the target at nearly nine hundred metres per second. They carried no tracers, so as not to blind the pilot or alert the target, but the flashes of hits around the centre of the Mosquito were clearly visible. It seemed to stagger in the air, panels flying free, then suddenly a large, streamlined object fell from the British plane, plummeting down towards the glowing clouds. A second later, the Mosquito broke up, torn apart by the Heinkel’s devastating firepower. There were no parachutes. As the pieces of the sleek little bomber tumbled gracelessly to Earth, the Oberstleutnant shouted in triumph to the fighter controller, then turned his aircraft back into a climb to await the arrival of the bomber stream. Below him, bright colour bloomed.

  ‘If we do have to bomb, at least we should try to pick those targets which will do real strategic damage rather than just terrorising the population.’ Mary argued.

  ‘We do,’ countered Peter, ‘but they have a tendency to be surrounded by the houses of their workers. And with the best will in the world, despite all of these advanced tactics and navigational aids Don’s been talking about for years, not every bomb will find its target. There will be some collateral damage.’

  ‘What about those synthetic oil plants? They seem to have been the best targets the last time around.’

  ‘Unfortunately those are less significant at the moment. Germany has captured extensive oil fields as a result of their successes in the east.’ Charles, who had been sitting quietly in a corner of the room almost lost in a large leather armchair, made a rare contribution. Having gained their attention, he went on. ‘Lord Cherwell’s paper has a certain appeal to our leader.’

  Don groaned. ‘That man is the bugbear of my life. Lindemann is totally insufferable. Everything the critics said about him in my time has proved to be true. But try as I might, I can’t prise him away from Winston. He thinks he’s a wonderfully imaginative scientist, and they’ve known each other for a long time.’

  ‘What paper is this?’ Enquired Geoffrey.

  ‘He has argued that Bomber Command should be obliterating cities in order to end the war by making people homeless and destroying the national morale. He has also vigorously opposed the production of long-range aircraft for Coastal Command – he wants our whole production capacity diverted to bombers. He just doesn’t understand the role of our anti-submarine aircraft in defending our convoys. He thinks that just because they don’t sink many submarines they’re wasting their time. The fact that they keep the U-boats away from the convoys by keeping them submerged won’t enter his head. Nothing enters his head except his own ideas – he doesn’t recognise anyone else’s.’

  ‘You must admit he has a point, though,’ observed Peter. ‘In more ways than one. Thanks to your influence, Coastal Command now has as many long-range aircraft as Bomber Command, but while the bombers can demonstrate the massive damage they’re inflicting on the enemy, all the maritime reconnaissance planes have to show for their efforts is a patch of oil every now and then, where a U-boat might or might not have been destroyed. That doesn’t give our propagandists much to go on. Stirring battles over the Reich, now, that’s much more exciting.’

  ‘And not just for domestic morale,’ commented Charles. ‘We have to convince the rest of the world that we’re still fighting a war. Not just the Soviets, although they need all the encouragement we can give them, but the Americans as well. They’re still generally not interested in getting more involved in Europe. There’s a strong isolationist streak there, and the argument about keeping American sons from dying in foreign wars has a lot of appeal. Even the ones who appreciate the need to stop the Nazis want to focus on Japan as a revenge for Pearl Harbor before they even think about the possibility of war with Germany, and that includes some of
their most influential military leaders, such as Admiral King. We’ve got to keep the fact that we’re still fighting a war in the minds of the American public, and the bombing campaign is the best way of doing it.’

  ‘Nonetheless, sooner or later an invasion there must be,’ said Don. ‘Otherwise there are just two possibilities. Either Hitler completes his conquest of the Soviet Union, at which point he can invade us with overwhelming force at his leisure, or Russia survives, recovers and eventually manages to beat Germany, in which case we will be faced with an entirely communist Europe. We have to intervene at some point, and not just by sending in bombers.’

  ‘The trick is to pick the right moment,’ mused Harold. ‘One which offers the least risk to our forces.’

  Don grimaced. ‘Not so easy. You could argue that now would be a good time, while the bulk of German forces are engaged far to the east. But without the Americans it would be very risky. Of course, if the Russians give up then an invasion becomes impossible – Hitler will be far too strong. The only chance will be if the Russians start forcing the Germans back and weakening them. In those circumstances, the longer we wait before invading, the weaker the Germans will be and the better the chance of success. But the longer we wait, the further Stalin’s troops will get into Europe, and we’ll end up with the Cold War all over again, only this time we might not be lucky enough to avoid a nuclear war.’

  ‘Which does, of course, raise another option,’ Charles said quietly, breaking the gloomy silence. ‘With the information you were able to provide, massive resources are being put into nuclear research. According to progress reports, we should have the first atom bomb late next year. I seem to recall you saying that the USA reckoned that using the bomb to end the war in your time saved them an estimated million casualties which they otherwise would have incurred in invading Japan. The same calculation could apply in Europe.’