Solar Storm: Homeward Bound

by Vincent Keith

  “So, it could be fifty years from now or two hundred?”

  “It could be today or a thousand years from now. We can only discuss probabilities. We don’t know when it will happen, only that the probability approaches one hundred percent as time passes. But to assume that it won’t happen results in a suboptimal outcome.”

  “Suboptimal? Are you a retired professor?”

  Henry laughed. “I’m a retired economist. Some would say that’s worse.”

  Jack nodded. “Suboptimal, meaning that failing to plan for a disaster is a good way to create a bigger disaster?”

  “Yep. At least when you have some notion of the probabilities. If the probability is easy to estimate and is low, then preparations are unwarranted. But when the probability is high, then a failure to plan is suboptimal. It’s not easy to justify spending resources on things that might not happen. Unless the potential outcome is quantifiable and exceeds the cost of preparations by a significant margin.”

  Jack chuckled. “You do sound a bit like my econ prof.”

  “Ouch. That’s unkind.” Henry covered his heart with his hands as if he’d been shot.

  Jack chuckled.

  “Kidding aside, the estimates put the Cascadia quake at about nine-point-zero on the Richter scale when it triggers. In terms of total effect? No one knows. There wasn’t much here three hundred years ago. There is evidence of a massive tsunami back in seventeen hundred that hit Japan. It was most likely caused by the release of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The data shows evidence of a set of waves that averaged about eighteen feet over sea level. While that doesn’t sound huge, it would cause significant damage to most coastal cities around the North Pacific Rim.”

  “There’s also evidence that the Cascadia quake has caused the San Andreas fault to cut loose. Think about that for a minute. A nine point zero earthquake off the coast that shakes everything from Victoria, Canada to Northern California. The estimated area of effect is Southern Alaska to Sacramento California. Possibly as far east as Spokane, but no one is sure. It might reach farther, or it might not make it past the mountains.”

  “In Seattle, they’re predicting that over a thousand buildings will fail, some of them hospitals. More than eighty bridges, all the major power, sewer, water, and gas pipelines. Repeat that for every major city from Vancouver Canada to say Redding California. Add in an eight point zero or stronger quake from the San Andreas fault, and you’re talking about everything from Alaska to Mexico. The entire West coast. It might not be that bad, but planning for the best case is the same as not having a plan.”

  Jack stared at Henry wondering what such a disaster would look like. There would be no way to evacuate that many people. Bridges down, transportation near useless or unsafe, untreated and contaminated water, not enough safe shelter. It would be a disaster for the entire country. The economic costs would be counted in trillions. Could the economy even survive that?

  “So how likely is that to happen?” asked Jack.

  “It’s one hundred percent going to happen at some point, no way to predict the final area of effect or the magnitude or when. It might trigger the San Andreas Fault, might not. Might cause a massive tsunami, might not cause one at all. Could be a huge problem, might turn out to be something we can handle. Game Theory tells us that, on an individual level, preparing for the worst case is the low-cost option. Some estimates put it at twenty to thirty percent in your lifetime.”

  “That… Doesn’t sound good.”

  “Less for me cause I’m an old fart,” Henry said with a smile on his face. “Preparing for something like that on the municipal level is harder because the cost is so much higher. They make plans, they run tests, they do what they can within the constraints of budgets and policy.”

  “So they’re doing something?”

  “Sure, and some of it will help. But I don’t think it will be nearly enough. Don’t let it get to you. It’s like worrying about an asteroid, there’s nothing you can do to stop it. Figure out what you’d need to live, assuming you survived. If you don’t survive then it’s not a problem is it?”

  Jack laughed. “No, I suppose it’s not. So, are you far enough away to survive?”

  “No way to know, but I hope so. I believe so.”

  “I hope so too.”

  “Let’s see… Another possibility is an EMP event. There are two likely scenarios. Well, not likely, but possible. A Coronal Mass Ejection or nuclear attack. I suppose it could also be part of World War Three, but that’s a different problem. The CME is a giant solar storm where the charged particle radiation interacts and overwhelms the earth’s magnetic field, generating a geomagnetic storm. They happen all the time, but rarely come directly toward the Earth.”

  “The last big one we know of was the Carrington event back in 1859. We are aware it happened because we had telegraph lines all over the country and many of them were burnt out and needed to be replaced. Several operators got shocks from the equipment, and if I remember correctly, batteries exploded.”

  “There was a smaller storm back in ’89 that took out the electric grid in most of Quebec. Anyway, that was only an X15 on the scale. Each number is ten times stronger than preceding number. An X16 would be ten times stronger than an X15, and so on. You can see it goes up fast. The current record is something like X45. When the flare blinds the satellite we use for tracking them, it gets hard to measure.”

  “I remember hearing about that. There was talk in one of the Astrophotography forums I read.”

  “Our experts, such as they are, estimate it would be possible for something at least as large as the Carrington event to destroy our electric grid, computers, and communications gear. While the military may still have communications, virtually all the civilian stuff will be gone. Most satellites, cell phones, landlines, TV and radio transmitters will all be gone. It could affect the entire continent, possibly the whole Northern Hemisphere or the whole world. You’ll wish you were a tribesman in the Amazon, or some other tiny third world nation, where you might not even notice it. For the rest of us? No TV, AC, refrigeration, drugs, transportation, food production or deliveries, basically all the things we’ve come to depend on.”

  “We get almost the same result if some terrorist blows up a nuke at say 300 miles above Kansas. That will probably take out most of the electronics in the US and parts of Canada and Mexico. Say they buy one of the nukes the Russkies lost, or they get one from Pakistan. They stick it on a cheap Chinese missile and launch it from a cargo ship in the Gulf of Mexico. Then…boom.”

  “It sounds too easy.”

  “It would be easy, except the nuke part. Those can be difficult to come by.”

  “Which means it’s not likely to happen.”

  “That would depend on who’s helping. Maybe Russia or China decided having us distracted with our own problems would give them a free pass for expansion. Maybe one of the Muslim countries gets their hands on one.”

  Jack considered the idea and didn’t like it at all.

  “Some defense experts are sure that the next World War will be fought in cyberspace as much as on the ground. The defense department has admitted that the Chinese have hacked our power grid and could shut it down if they chose to. Now, I happen to think they wouldn’t do that unless they were planning something else, something big. Like say, invading Taiwan, or Japan. They could, in theory, invade the US but that would be World War Three, and they’d lose. Well, I guess we’d all lose, but they’d be mostly gone unless whoever is in charge is as spineless as the guy we have now.

  “The problem is that if one group can do it, so can another. There are places in the Middle East, like Pakistan and Iran, that have all the people and training needed to make it happen. If they get inside the system, we’re screwed… Assuming they even need to get inside. And since we did it to them first with the Stuxnet virus, I’m sure they’d be happy to return the favor.”

  “Jeez Henry, you’re just a fountain of happy aren’t you?”
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  Henry nodded and chuckled, “Yep, I've been called worse too: doomsayer, alarmist, pessimist, kook. I might be a few of those things, but I’m not a pessimist. I’m an optimist. Given where the country is heading, and all the possible problems—and we’ve only discussed three of them, I still think I’ll be okay.”

  “There’s more?”

  Henry nodded. “Pandemic, which the CDC has been worried about for decades. That asteroid you mentioned, economic collapse… Of course, there’s always that World War, which some folks in the defense department think is inevitable. The Chinese think so too.”

  “Great—that’s a cheery idea.”

  “Some people think we’re going to run out of oil, that we’ve reached what they call peak oil. They’ll eventually be right, but I doubt either of us will live to see it. It’s more a matter of economics than a physical shortage. Our oil reserves are larger today than when Peak Oil was first discussed. The reason is simple enough. When they talk about oil reserves, they’re only talking about oil they can afford to access. As oil prices rise, oil that was previously unreachable becomes economically available. When that happens, oil reserves increase. If prices get high enough, we’ll genetically modify seed crop to maximize oil production because it will be economically feasible.”

  “Don’t we do that now with ethanol?”

  “Not really, we’re using food crop and converting it to ethanol, which we add to gas. Stupid idea, but it makes the enviro-nuts happy. Well, them, the politicians, and the corn farmers who get the economic rents.”

  “Huh? What’s an economic rent?”

  “Oh, sorry. Economist jargon, it’s an occupational hazard. Rent-seeking is using the political system to get a greater share of wealth from an existing source. Subsidies for example, or in this case lobbying for the government to force you to buy something you would otherwise not purchase. Fancy way of saying they’re using lobbyists to get the government to force someone to buy what they’re selling even if it costs more and has no extra value.”

  “So, I get to pay higher prices for gas that’s not as good as it was before they got involved.”

  “Yep. The enviro-nuts forget how much fossil fuel goes into growing those crops. The process creates more pollution, more greenhouse gas which they’re all freaked out about, and it’s also bad for engines. That whole greenhouse gas thing? Corn fuels produce five to ten percent more than fossil fuels do.”

  “Seriously? Why would we do that?”

  “People who don’t know science felt it was a good idea, it made them feel like they were doing something. The lobbyists write bills, Congress votes for them without bothering to read them or understand them. If you ask the corn lobby to do a study on corn as fuel, you can bet the results will be whatever is best for the corn growers. It’s human nature. They all know how it works, and as long as it doesn’t cost them personally, they don’t care.”

  Jack sighed. “So as cynical as I’ve been feeling lately, you’re telling me I’m still too naive?”

  “Do you remember that additive the EPA was all happy about years back, MTBE? Turned into a major disaster for ground water, and created no improvements in air quality. Scientists told them it wouldn’t help. The EPA ignored them, the Sierra Club convinced the politicians that the cost of doing nothing was too high. In the end, it cost everyone money and destroyed entire aquifers. Their intentions are good, but they seem to have a hard time thinking through the consequences.”

  “That’s not really fair Henry, it hasn’t been all bad. We have much cleaner air and water now than we used to.”

  “True, true. Leaded gas was a horrible idea, as were hydrofluorocarbons in refrigerants, interestingly invented by the same guy. Although, there are those who say the HFC scare was manufactured because DuPont’s patent was running out and they wanted to own the replacement. I don’t know, maybe, maybe not. Either way, some environmental causes have been beneficial, some very much so.”

  “See, there’s an upside.”

  “You can’t assume that a few successes mean they’re all a good thing. Look around, I’ve got wind, solar voltaic, and solar thermal just for my own home. I’m obviously in favor of the idea, but I know what it actually costs, and what the benefits are. There’s always a cost, and what I want is for everyone to be honest about what the costs are.”

  “It must save you money, or you wouldn’t do it would you?”

  “Sure I would. The wind generator is about ten percent efficient here. I doubt I’ll ever recover the cost even with the rising energy costs. This region is only fair for solar voltaic. At current prices, my system won’t ever pay for itself.”

  “Why not?”

  “Solar panels age, batteries age. Eventually, I’ll have to replace them. Washington also has the cheapest electrical power of any place in the country. So, where it might pay for itself in a place where the alternative is more expensive, I’ll most likely have to put more money into the system before I’ve covered my costs. If you want solar to pay for itself, you need higher energy prices, and you have to be able to sell back to the grid.”

  “Then why do it?”

  “I’m not dependent on the power grid. I get to experiment, and I have a vested interest in watching the improvements. Eventually, I’ll get panels that last long enough with a low enough initial cost that it will pay for itself. The other thing is that everyone who does this helps reduce the peak load on the grid. Lower peak demand cuts down on the proliferation of single point power generation, whether it be coal fired, gas or nuclear.”

  “So you get something besides saving money that makes it worth the cost?”

  “Sure, but I don’t think commercial wind or solar will be a viable alternative for a long time. They don’t produce at a consistent rate during the hours they work. You’d need to build extensive overcapacity to cover dropouts, and the truth is you’d need to build that capacity with coal, gas or nuclear. Business relies on consistent availability. If you have to construct and run the coal plant anyway, then you’re not saving much. It’s why I’m a fan of nuclear power as the alternative source.”

  “I don’t know… that seems like it might cause more problems than it solves.”

  “Did you know most of that protesting about nuclear energy back in the sixties and seventies was funded by big oil?”

  “I guess I can see that happening.”

  “I’m not fond of the old reactor designs, they were expensive and ridiculously so after the enviro-nuts got done with their lawsuits. Some of the newer designs are excellent and would be a much better alternative than solar thermal, or wind. Build nuclear and put money into pure research on solar voltaic which is reaching the point of being cost-effective for the homeowner. But subsidies for commercializing it just raises the cost of energy across the board. They can profit from it when it becomes competitive.”

  “It looks like I’ve got a lot of reading in my future.”

  “Jack, I hope you surprise me and actually do that reading. I’ve talked to thousands of people about this over the years, and less than one in maybe a hundred get around to doing anything about it. You don’t need to agree with me on everything, make up your own mind, but try to understand the motivations behind what people are pushing. It usually turns out to be money or power. Human beings are not good at altruism.”

  “Yeah, I can see that. It’s a lot to think about, and it’s not a pleasant subject. Most people I know don’t like to think about anything unpleasant unless they have no choice. I guess ignorance really is bliss.”

  “Until it’s not.”

  “Henry, thanks for the eye opener. Send me those links, and I’ll read them. I’ve had my eyes opened by the economy and that bit of ignorance is costing me.”

  A FORK IN THE ROAD

  After months of research and frustration, Jack concluded that a significant change in lifestyle was the only way to solve his problems. The more he read, the less confidence he had in the economy. He didn’t see a way to
keep his business going until things recovered sufficiently to make it viable again. Jack assumed a recovery would happen, but not soon enough. A second income would have been sufficient, but he wasn’t married and wasn’t about to marry for money.

  Downsizing would solve his short-term issue of falling income. A career change would address the problem of being unprepared for the next big shakeup. What he needed to do now was pick Henry’s brain on minimalist living and possible career paths.

  “Hi Henry, this is Jack,” he said when Henry picked up the phone.

  “Jack, how’s it going?”

  “Better than it was last month. I realized I didn’t need to prepare for each possible disaster. I need to change the way I live so that the disasters won’t hurt as much.”

  “Sure, there’s still prep work to be done, but it’s ninety percent the same for all of them.”

  “You say that like it should be obvious, which I suppose it would be if you’ve been at this since the civil war, old man.”

  Henry laughed. “Has it been that long?”

  “Okay, I exaggerate… a little. I was hoping I could come up for a visit. If I’m going to overhaul my life, I really want to use your experience and see how many mistakes I can avoid.”

  “Novel approach, most folks rush in and make their own mistakes.”

  “I’ve been doing that for the last four months. I all but gave up. It was overwhelming. Hell, getting out of bed was difficult for the last couple weeks it was so depressing.”

  “Oh Jack, that’s not good. You should come up. The spare room is empty. Besides, I need a hand putting up a new shed for the chickens. Damn coyotes got two more of my birds.”

  “Thanks, I’ve climbed out of the pit I put myself into, and I can see a path to a solution, but I don’t know how to get started.”