China Attacks

by Chuck DeVore

  “What’s that Colonel?”

  “I’ll need about $10 billion and a few years to prepare.”

  “Oh?”

  “The Peoples’ Liberation Army-Navy only has enough landing craft to lift about 20,000 combat troops into battle. Right now I could only take Quemoy or Matsu.”

  “I see. Why’d you even bother with the previous war games? Did they expect the ROC army to wait politely while you made ten trips to get enough troops on shore?” Donna looked annoyed.

  “Not exactly, the scenarios called for the securing of key beaches and port facilities using airborne troops and amphibious assault, then lifting the remaining forces using non-amphibious assets. A lift capacity of 20,000 isn’t a large enough margin to do the job safely. Certainly not without many other factors playing in China’s favor such as the neutralization of Taiwan’s navy and air force and complete surprise.”

  “Well, how would you do it this time, if you were the Chinese?”

  Cliff Dowling walked back into the room. Colonel Lake slid into his chair to the left of Dowling’s and said in a stage whisper, “That you’ll have to see at 1555 hours Comrade Premier!”

  Dowling addressed the room, “Remain on schedule. I still expect the briefings to begin at 3:30.”

  6

  An Idea

  Fu Zemin sat up on a pillow watching TV and smoking. His son had gone to sleep early and he and his wife had uncharacteristically made love twice that night. His right arm was draped around his wife’s snuggling body, his left hand cared for the cigarette.

  State-run TV was blaring forth about casualties among the Australian and American troops in East Timor—serves them right, Fu thought. How ironic that the Americans helped East Timor gain its independence. A quarter century ago, China had provided some arms and training to the East Timorese independence movement, hoping to sting the Indonesian generals and their government that had so brutally destroyed Indonesia’s Communist Party in the mid-60s, killing some 300,000 Communists and civilians alike. What a delicious turn of events, the Americans helped complete what we failed to accomplish.

  One part of Fu, the nationalist part, didn’t like the idea of America barging into another part of Asia and trying to peel away a troubled province from the mother country as they were doing to Yugoslavia with Kosovo. He thought of Tibet, even Taiwan. No, the Americans were too full of themselves, too powerful. Something must be done to stop them.

  He wondered how American strength might be turned against them, just like in Vietnam where their self-assuredness and lack of historical awareness pulled them in, and power and face kept them there for far longer than any other nation would have stayed. He thought of the martial arts where the weakest woman could best a strong but untrained man because she could use the man’s strength and size against him. Could the Americans be manipulated into another quagmire, this time in Asia, to accompany the ones they were mired in the Balkans and the Middle East? Could this be made to China’s advantage?

  Fu yawned and snuffed out his cigarette. Tomorrow he would write up some recommendations for the Party to consider. Perhaps it was time to be bold, really bold. Belgrade, the Stealth Fighter, the successful operation in Western China, Fu counted up his chits and realized he had enough to spare. He could afford to make a gamble­—if this one pays off, I’ll get noticed by the Chairman himself. Fu smiled as he went to sleep.

  7

  War Games

  Donna practiced her briefing two more times under her breath and consulted with more of the players in the room. There was a fair degree of experience and smarts in this room. She wondered why the CIA didn’t take greater advantage of the expertise in the uniformed services. She vaguely remembered that someone decided back in the early 60s that two distinct pillars of intelligence, one military-based, the other, civilian, was supposed to prevent that dreaded Washington disease: groupthink—where all the analysts and decision-makers go along in a herd mentality, never daring to challenge the conventional wisdom.

  Soon 3:30 PM rolled around and Donna gave her four minute and forty-five second briefing, summarizing how the PRC could achieve a peaceful reunification with Taiwan only by transforming themselves into a pluralistic democracy. As she said so, she thought about the idea of the Communist Party allowing a free and fair election with opposition party candidates. Stranger things have happened, but she wouldn’t bet the farm on it. The Party leadership enjoyed too much power to simply give it all up to get Taiwan back. Other than a four year period from the end of Japanese occupation in 1945 until the Nationalists fled to the island in 1949, Taiwan hadn’t been ruled from the Mainland since 1895 when Japan took possession of the island from a weakened Ch’ing Dynasty. One thing China was good at was waiting for the right moment—after more than 100 years, what’s a few more years, give or take? She concluded by saying that a face-saving federation with China, especially in light of Hong Kong’s treatment to date, might be acceptable to the Taiwanese if they perceived that America had completely abandoned them and that the military balance had swung irrevocably over to the Chinese side. Since Dowling wanted all questions held to after the briefings, Donna simply sat down when finished.

  Dr. Wendell slowly got up. He perched his reading glasses on the end of his nose and held his yellow legal pad of hand-written notes about 18 inches from his face. He addressed his notes, not the exercise participants.

  “I want to begin by saying that I don’t believe the Chinese would ever risk military confrontation with the U.S. over Taiwan,” the doctor barely concealed his disdain for the process and those in the room. That being said, the man from State straightened, looking like something had been lifted off his chest.

  Since he was a professional, he would humor the proceedings anyway and give them a dose of his wisdom. “China, in the unlikely event that it would seek to conquer Taiwan by force of arms, would probably seek to do so while the U.S. was otherwise committed to a major engagement elsewhere in the world. For example, in the Middle East. Japanese interference should be negligible. While it is true that the Japanese fleet has technical and operational superiority over the Chinese, it is extremely unlikely that the Japanese would come to the aid of Taiwan.” Dr. Wendell droned on, reading from his notes, listing more reasons why China should not expect to encounter interference unless it openly challenged U.S. military power.

  North Korea was another matter. Dr. Wendell paused to change the subject, flipping to a new sheet on his legal pad in the process, “North Korea’s armed forces are in a state of complete disrepair. Their leadership is reclusive and simply trying to make it through another year. Should China actually want to enlist their assistance as an adjunct in a military campaign, presumably to threaten or tie down U.S. forces, they could probably do so by massively increasing food and fuel shipments to Pyongyang. After a year or two of improved conditions, the nation and the military might be better prepared strike south. Of course, such assistance is in no way a guarantee of future cooperation from Pyongyang.”

  That was it. Instead of ten minutes, Dr. Wendell blessed the room with four minutes of his “brilliance.” A few faces expressed relief he was now quiet and had sat down. Dowling looked a little cheated.

  Mr. Amos Ye, an international economist and trade advisor for the Commerce Department stood next. He wore an impeccable dark brown silk suit and a perfect poker face. He spoke like old money from the East Coast. Had Donna asked, she would have discovered that Ye’s family had roots in San Francisco dating back to the mid-1800s. Holding a few three by five cards, Ye stood, smiled and began, “The United States imports and exports yearly an amount roughly equal to 20% of its GDP. For China, that number is 12%, but growing. China’s main trading partners for exports are the U.S. and Japan. China imports most of its goods from Japan, Taiwan and the U.S.

  “While it true that trade is fungible, that is, easily shifted around narrow embargoes, it is uncertain if China could find a reliable market for the mass of consumer goods it ships to Americ
a. The Europeans, prone to protectionist sentiment behind the wall of the EU cannot be relied upon by China to pick up the slack from the United States.” Mr. Ye continued, spicing his talk with detailed statistics and explanations. Clearly he liked conveying his knowledge—and he had the rapt attention of most in the room.

  He concluded the economic impact portion of his talk, “The bottom line is that a truly effective U.S. economic embargo, with Japanese participation, would result in about 25 million workers losing their jobs. This would increase unemployment by about three percent. But these job losses would be heavily concentrated in the cities where the export industries are located. Urban unemployment would actually increase by about 12 percent with rural unemployment being largely unaffected, at least initially. Lastly, due to the large trade surpluses China has run for several years, its foreign currency reserves are sufficient to fund imports of strategic materials and weapons from Russia for several years.

  “As to the question of alternate supplies in the event of a wartime embargo or blockade, China is very vulnerable. China is the third largest importer of crude oil in the world. It needs about one million barrels per day and most of this supply comes via maritime routes as opposed to overland from Russia or the former Soviet Republics in Central Asia. China is the world’s largest manufacturer of steel and it imports significant quantities of iron ore from abroad, although it does have sizable domestic production. China also imports large quantities of grain from Australia, the U.S., Canada and Argentina. Of note, China’s merchant fleet is now the world’s third largest, behind Japan and Greece. As to timelines, I do not know what the extent is of China’s strategic mineral reserves, but as for food imports, China can make do with little to no maritime shipments. The Chinese can simply shift grain use away from feeding livestock directly to feeding people; this should be more than enough to make up any shortfall. The key commodity that China can’t afford to be cut off from is oil. In this aspect, China is in a position very analogous to the position of Imperial Japan prior to World War Two when America led an effective oil boycott and later, once the U.S. entered the war, a naval blockade. I currently see no way they can overcome a naval blockade of their sea lines of communication. Unless agreements for reliable and sizable deliveries are made with overland neighbors such as Russia, China would grind to a halt in less than four months. Of course, that assumes an active naval blockade by the U.S. fleet. A simple boycott of Chinese goods by America and Japan would not serve to cut China off from any needed items—other than some high tech equipment.”

  Mr. Ye offered a tight-lipped smile and took his seat. Donna noted he never glanced at the three by five cards he had prepared but held at his side during the briefing. It was now Colonel Lake’s turn. The time was 3:54 PM; Ye had run over a few minutes, consuming Dr. Wendell’s unused time. No one seemed to mind, Ye was good.

  Colonel Lake looked across the table at Donna, drew a breath and stood up ramrod straight but looked at ease and relaxed. His light green long sleeve military shirt was adorned only with his nametag, the eagle epaulettes that signified his rank as a colonel, and the two-inch oval badge of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. His plain flat black tie was held to his pressed shirt with a simple silver tie clip that also was adorned by a miniature of the same rank-identifying eagle. The shirt had two sharp creases in it, each running straight down from the center of each pocket. Colonel Lake left his legal pad on the table and addressed the entire room as he spoke. Donna thought of the strange contradictions of the warrior class.

  Colonel Lake began, all the familiarity of lunchtime gone from his voice, he was the epitome of a professional, “Good afternoon. I’m Colonel Lake and for this exercise I represent the Chief-of-Staff of the PLA.” The colonel launched immediately into his briefing, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each course of action. He wrapped up with a summary of each.

  “Option one, using the PLA’s growing power to intimidate Taiwan has its attractions. First, it has worked before. In 1996, China fired missiles that detonated just off the coast of Taiwan in an attempt to dissuade a vote for the pro-independence presidential candidate. Whether such an approach could be used to force a union with Taiwan is a high-risk venture. If such a campaign of intimidation fails, China would lose face and its world standing would be diminished.

  “Option two, launching a full-scale invasion to conquer Taiwan, offers the most rewards for the least risk. However, this option is not without danger. In the near-term, success could only be accomplished with three elements: surprise, the non-intervention of the U.S., and the use of chemical weapons to neutralize resistance at the invasion beaches. Using chemical weapons may cause a negative international response, but I might add, the Chinese may not be dissuaded. After all, Saddam Hussein killed his own people with nerve agent and barely raised a ripple. And, don’t forget, the outrage in the world community caused by the PLA killing 5,000 unarmed students in Tiananmen Square in 1989 was short-lived. In the mid-term, a sustained three to five year naval construction program may provide the PLAN with enough amphibious capability to forego the use of NBC and simply invade Taiwan with overwhelming firepower.

  “Option three, launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan as a prelude to a sustained campaign to conquer Asia, is bold and imaginative, but hardly sustainable. Certainly, Chinese planners would have to contend with the possibility that America and Japan would not stand idly by while a major power consolidated its hold on Asia. This might be a viable option in ten to 20 years, but not at the present time.”

  As the colonel wrapped up his presentation, he sat down in his chair and looked to Mr. Dowling. It was exactly 4:10 PM, right on schedule.

  Cliff Dowling spoke up, “I’ve decided I want no discussions or questions to precede the vote. We all had plenty of time to interact with each other during the course of the day, and, most of us have our day jobs to attend to after we release for the day.” Dowling continued, “So, let’s get to the decision. I will ask the four primary players which one of Colonel Lake’s options they prefer. With four votes, at least one option should receive two votes. At my discretion, I will ask for a second round of votes if the top vote getter only receives two votes in which case I’ll leave off one of less preferred options.

  “All those in favor of option one, intimidating Taiwan, please raise their hands.” Dr. Wendell gave his characteristic half wave, his elbow still stuck to the table.

  “All those in favor of option two, conquering Taiwan, please raise their hands.” Donna and the colonel raised their hands opposite each other.

  Dowling raised an eyebrow almost imperceptibly, “All those in favor of conquering Taiwan as a prelude to conquering Asia please raise his hand.” Dowling had changed his sentence structure midway through as a slight gesture of humor. Mr. Ye raised his hand and shrugged, briefly cocking his head a bit to one side as he did so.

  Dowling frowned, clearly he had not expected the economist to suggest a bold course of action. “I’d like to have a second round of voting, this time between options one and two only. All those in favor of option one?”

  Ye and Wendell raised their hands. Donna thought about Ye’s reasoning—all or nothing—certain amount of sense to that. She decided this man was worth some additional questioning and resolved to grill him at lunch tomorrow. Donna and the colonel raised their hands at Dowling’s calling of the option two question.

  Dowling smiled, “Well, it’s a tie, and I get to cast the deciding vote. We’ll game option two. I want to take Taiwan within 12 months. Colonel Lake, set in motion a heightened training and mobilization posture. Keep the preparations as secret as possible. Mr. Ye and Dr. Wendell, see to it that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea gets all the fuel and food it requires. Colonel Lake, provide our ally with a ‘loan’ of 300 of our oldest tanks, in good working order, of course, and begin to upgrade their air defense network. Make no effort to disguise these preparations, but don’t telegraph them either. Ms. Klein, I want y
ou to open up intense, government-to-government exchanges designed to engage the government on Taiwan at all levels. Make them feel that we truly want a political solution to reunification.”

  As Dowling spoke, each role player wrote down his orders. As soon as he finished, facilitators showed up at the side of each role player to understand the intent of their more detailed instructions. These actions would then be communicated to the Green and Blue cells and their auxiliary Japan, South Korea and Taiwan cells so that they could formulate a response for the Red cell by the next day at noon. Tomorrow, Donna’s Red cell had to respond to two U.S. alternative actions, by generating two reactions. It was a lot of work to pack into a day.

  Donna finished fleshing out her response to the facilitator and headed quickly for the hall. About half of the game participants had already left. Today had been interesting and productive, but she had other things on her mind now. She toyed with the idea of going in to the office, but the chance to catch up on laundry and sleep proved more compelling.

  Just before she reached the hallway she noticed General Taylor in the corner talking with a young-looking Air Force lieutenant colonel. In spite of herself, she hesitated. General Taylor clapped the man on the shoulder and slipped by him to address Donna. “Ms. Klein, I wanted to say thank you for your contribution. Has it been interesting for you so far?”

  Donna thought the man was too friendly—hasn’t he learned with all the sexual scandal in the Pentagon? “Thank you. Yes, I had an excellent time today. I hope all of our hard work will be put to good use.”

  Taylor smiled gently, “We’re recording everything and we’ll distill it down to lessons learned within a week. The National Security Council staff will even get an executive summary of this one.”