China Attacks

by Chuck DeVore

  All three Americans checked in with the “office” during their time out. All three did so on their mobile satellite phones. All three knew that their calls (at least the outbound voice portion) were being monitored by listening devices. Other than the fact that the Chinese were reluctant to deal with the Americans while the submarine prowled the waters off Taiwan, there was no news or new directives from Washington. One hour slipped into two. Lunchtime passed. Finally, at 2:00 PM, the famished Americans were served a modest fare in their suite.

  * * *

  At 3:14 PM, the Los Angeles claimed another victim, this time a 5,000-ton coastal steamer heading to Taiwan with a load of trucks and armored personnel carriers. The PLAN tried once again, unsuccessfully, to sink the attack submarine. The PLAN’s admirals debated whether to send their Kilo-class boats after the Americans, but decided it was better to keep the Kilos alive and a threat to complicate the Americans’ planning than to waste them on an enemy that was ready and waiting for them. The Chinese redoubled their efforts to find and sink the sub from the air.

  Beijing was in a quandary. The war on Taiwan was going well. The generals estimated that within a week, ten days at the most, Taipei would fall and general resistance would cease. That is, if the Americans could be kept out of the war. The introduction of the attack submarine into the fight was a minor, but troubling inconvenience. The military experts knew that more American naval power would soon arrive and that, if nothing was done to check it, the Americans would choke off vital supplies and reinforcements just as victory was at hand. Bold action was needed to seize the initiative from the Americans and save the about-to-be-won victory from American meddling. The leadership made the decision to employ a special stratagem—a secret weapon that was carefully prepared for just this eventuality. A weapon that, if successful, would knock America out of the war and turn all of Asia into China’s docile back yard. The timing for the weapon’s employment had to be perfect to maximize its effect. The countdown started. . .

  * * *

  On Monday morning at 8:30 in Washington, D.C., the United States House of Representatives was gaveled to order. If most of the Members of Congress were sleepy from the hasty recall to the capital, they didn’t show it. The House chamber was abuzz with purpose and a sense of history. The motion to declare war had been drafted the day before in committee (highly unusual for a Sunday) and the rules of debate were decided upon. Each side would have four hours to debate the issue with a final vote scheduled for 7:00 PM. There were to be no amendments allowed—a straight up or down vote would be the order of the day.

  The first Member rose to speak. He was a long-time Congressman from New York, very respected, and although not of the same party as the President, was known to be supportive of the Presidency in times of foreign crisis, “Mr. Speaker, I move to suspend the rules and pass the joint resolution to declare war on the People’s Republic of China, to support actions the President has taken with respect to Chinese aggression against Taiwan and to demonstrate United States resolve.”

  The Clerk of the House read the resolution with a clear and unemotional voice, “House Joint Resolution 745.

  “Whereas the Government of the People’s Republic of China without provocation on July 22 attacked United States Naval vessels in international waters, attacked United States Air Force air craft in international airspace, invaded and occupied the territory of Taiwan, has brutalized the population of Taiwan, and has disregarded the rights of diplomats, all in clear violation of international law and the norms of international conduct. . .”

  The resolution ended by calling for a declaration of war on the PRC. The chamber was so quiet that when the Clerk of the House finished speaking and shut off his mike the spectators in the House Visitors’ Galley could hear his papers rustling as he tapped them back into a tidy pile.

  By eleven o’clock it became clear there were four basic lines of argument, two for, and two against the declaration of war on China. The moderate opposition to the resolution was summed up by a powerful, pro-trade committee chairman:

  “Mr. Speaker, Ladies and Gentlemen, I rise in opposition to the resolution. This is madness! This is not some academic exercise! We are debating whether or not to go to war against one of our largest trading partners and the world’s most populous nation! China is not our enemy. They have no designs on U.S. territory or world conquest. They simply want to be able to make their ancient and proud nation whole again. Let us not stand in their way. Our relations with China are far more important than to squander them on the shoals of a small and insignificant island. Please, please, please, listen to me! We must not, we cannot, risk war with a major power over territory that even most of us believe belongs to them!

  “In addition, I hope the President will ignore the rising chorus of unemployed cold warriors and armchair generals urging him to strike out against China. It is awfully easy to order air strikes on China from the comfort of your living room; it is a whole lot harder when you have to bear the full responsibility of such an action as Commander in Chief. Let us support the President, but let us not goad him into action that may be unwise or unsuccessful. Let us not prematurely set the President’s path so that his only choices become failure and certain folly!”

  The Member finished his speech to a smattering of applause. His convictions were genuine, although some of his opponents didn’t think so and were prepared to use his record of campaign contributions against him (he represented a district where the largest employer was an aerospace company with billions of dollars of exports to China at stake).

  Another point of view was expressed by a Member of the House’s bloc of traditional pacifists:

  “Mr. Speaker, I thank the distinguished gentleman for yielding, and I rise in opposition to the resolution. Mr. Speaker, I find it difficult to oppose my Democratic leadership and the President in this matter, but I believe the resolution is not in the national interest and, as a matter of principle, I am compelled to dissent. America can no longer be the world’s policeman. We must come home. It is our own serious economic problems here at home that deserve our attention and our resources.

  “While I agree with the resolution’s characterization of the reprehensible actions of the People’s Republic of China and the resolution’s approval of severe economic sanctions against China and the freezing of Chinese and Taiwanese assets in the United States, can anyone honestly believe that our military would be on the shores of Taiwan today except for the Pentagon’s deep-seated and irrational Cold War hatred of the Chinese Communist Party?

  “There is simply no threat to the American homeland. We are there plainly and simply because old Cold Warriors hate China. And, I believe, no American life is worth sacrificing for this outmoded hatred. Especially since the Asian powers with the most to lose are our economic competitors.

  “I am exceedingly concerned that the passage of this resolution will provide a fig leaf of a congressional public relations mandate for the President to accentuate a military resolution of this crisis, rather than sustained diplomatic negotiations with all concerned parties. Before this is over we will put hundreds of thousands of our uniformed military personnel in harm’s way. We have an obligation to them, a moral obligation, and an obligation to the American people and people in Asia to achieve a just resolution of this crisis without recourse to further bloodshed and devastation.”

  The arguments in favor of the resolution were also in two camps: Members who believed China was a looming military and economic threat to America and another group who were perennially disgusted with China’s human rights violations and exploitation of low-cost labor (the later motivated, more often than not, by powerful organized labor interests). Both camps drew on the fact that Taiwan was a democracy while China was not.

  With only ten minutes remaining on the clock for the pro-resolution side, a big-labor Democrat from the heart of Chicago rose to speak:

  “Mr. Speaker. The near-war in which we find ourselves is a classic case
of bad policy choices coming back to haunt us. China has a long history of aggression in the region, ask Tibet, ask South Korea, ask the Philippines, ask Vietnam. They have an abysmal human rights record, and have violated international conventions against the proliferation of missile technology and nuclear weapons. Despite that, both Republican and Democratic administrations over the decades of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s increasingly tilted United States policy toward China. Their bad judgment was compounded, of course, by their failure to develop a consistent fair trade and human rights policy with respect to China.

  “This coddling of China’s dictators has only served to embolden them to action against a tiny and vibrant democracy. I have visited both Taiwan and China. Let me tell you this: Taiwan is governed by its people—a government of the people, by the people and for the people. The People’s Republic of China is governed by a bunch of corrupt old Communist Party thugs.

  “Some of you today have blamed Taiwan for initiating this crisis, for effectively declaring independence. Shame! Shame on you! You and your elitist ilk in the State Department fret about hot heads in Taiwan—as if a government freely elected can ignore the will of its people! If the government in Taipei didn’t declare Taiwan’s independence it would have deserved to be thrown on the street. And I’m sure many of the same people who now tut-tut their moves towards independence would have condemned them for being less than democratic had they ignored the will of the people. Well, you can’t have it both ways: either Taiwan and its people are free, free to choose their own path and deserving of our support, or they’re not, in which case they are no better than the butchers of Beijing who now rule over one-fifth of the world’s population and lust after more!

  “I support the resolution and I support freedom for the people of Taiwan and the people of China!”

  At his last sentence, he pounded the podium in the midst of thunderous applause.

  The last Member to speak for the pro-resolution side, a conservative Member of the House Armed Services Committee rose:

  “Mr. Speaker, I yield myself the remaining time. Mr. Speaker, I rise in support of House Joint Resolution 745 and urge its adoption. This resolution is the result of intense and urgent deliberations between the majority, the other side of the aisle, and the administration on what must be the most important of the shared powers of Congress and the executive—the issue of war.

  “This resolution was crafted by members of the committee in close consultation with the highest representatives of the administration and represents that which can be achieved when there is consensus among Americans with regard to our principles of constitutional democracy and that our traditional role of opposing illegal and naked aggression, be it against Poland in 1939, Pearl Harbor in 1941, Kuwait in 1990, or Taiwan today.

  “Simply stated, House Joint Resolution 745 affirms and congratulates the President on the actions he has taken in the past two days with respect to the current situation in and around Taiwan as a result of the Chinese invasion. Congress should indicate that it will stand behind the President’s stated objectives to preserve democracy on Taiwan and to protect American lives and interests. The explicit use of chemical and nuclear warfare is a tactic worthy of Attila the Hun, Genghis Khan and Adolf Hitler, and a blatant violation of all norms of international law and civilized behavior. The activities of the Communist Chinese occupying forces in Taiwan must also be a focus of the condemnation of the world. . .” He continued, citing historical precedents and the urgency of the situation.

  Soon, the Congressman wrapped up his presentation with a grave flourish. “Let us not be deceived. The Chinese invasion of Taiwan is the opening gambit in a move to dominate the world—to make the 21st Century the Chinese century. If we suffer a failure of nerve at this defining moment, we will pay the price as assuredly as Britain paid the price for Neville Chamberlain’s failure to stand up to Hitler.”

  In spite of the fervor the pro-resolution side enjoyed, the final vote was surprisingly close: 229 in favor, 191 against. For the first time since 1941, the United States House of Representatives had passed a declaration of war and sent it on to the waiting Senate where the more deliberative body was just gathering for an evening of debate. It was 7:40 PM on Monday.

  * * *

  Half a world away from Washington’s war of words a different aspect of war, also involving words, was being prepared. In Sichuan province in the southeast portion of China, a Long March 2C/SD (“2” for two-stage, “SD” for Smart Dispenser, a special satellite dispensing device used to place multiple low earth orbit communications satellites into their orbits) commercial rocket was nearing lift off. The rocket was a mainstay of China’s lucrative commercial launch vehicle market. How it got to be that way is an interesting story. After NASA’s Challenger disaster in 1986 there was a string of American launch vehicle failures as the U.S. tried to restart its unmanned space program. At the same time, the European Ariane program was beginning to have success with its launch vehicles. Fearful of a European near-monopoly in the commercial launch vehicle market, American satellite manufacturers lobbied the U.S. government to allow them to launch commercial satellites on Chinese rockets. Unfortunately, Chinese rockets had a disconcerting habit of exploding with their quarter billion dollar cargoes on board. Eventually the satellite insurance industry demanded that Chinese launch vehicles be made more reliable—if not, the satellite owners would have to self-insure or use other, safer (and more expensive) rockets. Rather than fatten Europe’s space industry coffers, the Americans decided to improve China’s launch vehicle reliability and accuracy.

  At T minus zero the booster’s engines ignited, sending a tremor through the two-stage rocket. The launch vehicle lifted off on schedule (the launch window was half an hour long) and cleared the pad in a deafening roar. Ten seconds into its flight the rocket began its pitch over maneuver. Instead of heading in the normal easterly azimuth of 94 to 104 degrees (taking the rocket over fairly unpopulated areas in the shortest distance to the South China Sea), the rocket tilted over to the northeast. Normally, this would have been cause for alarm and the rocket would have been command detonated to prevent a civilian catastrophe. Instead, the rocket was allowed to continue its climb for space. Just 122 seconds after liftoff the first stage shut down. A fifth of a second later the second stage ignited, sending the first stage tumbling back to Earth. Less than four minutes into the flight the payload fairing separated, revealing the Smart Dispenser and its cargo of five spherical vehicles.

  Had the Chinese launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from one of their established missile fields, U.S. missile launch warning satellites would have detected the launch within seconds. A few moments later, the satellites’ data would have enabled the sprawling underground complex at Cheyenne Mountain in Colorado to determine where the missile was headed and whether or not it was a threat. The Chinese weren’t willing to risk American nuclear retaliation over this mission, so they chose to use a civilian launch vehicle (stated U.S. nuclear retaliation policy was to wait until confirmation of a nuclear explosion—but the Chinese didn’t believe any nation could be so stupid as to wait until a bomb actually detonated before launching a counterstrike). They even went so far as to have the China Satellite Launch and Control General in Beijing officially communicate to America their intent to launch a commercial satellite sometime during the morning hours.

  The ploy worked. The launch was spotted by America’s early warning system but it was deemed non-threatening. Concern was much higher for a suspected North Korean three-stage missile test launch that was threatened anytime soon. The Americans viewed North Korea as a dangerous rogue state with less to lose from reckless behavior than a wealthy up-and-coming nation such as China. As was often the case with Western perceptions about Asia, it was wishful thinking backed by a skewed view of history.

  The young female U.S. Air Force lieutenant was just beginning her day under a thousand feet of rock at Cheyenne Mountain. A Defense Support Program sate
llite in geosynchronous orbit had just picked up the Chinese Long March rocket’s intensely hot exhaust plume as it cleared the thick cloud deck over southern China. While fairly new to the post, she quickly noted the rocket’s trajectory was atypical. Frowning, she called the watch officer over to her console where she was roughing out some preliminary flight paths, “Sir, please take a look at this.”

  The major walked over to the lieutenant’s station with its two large computer screens, “What do you have?”

  “Sir, very unusual. This Chinese commercial launch is way outside of its normal azimuth. The flight path will take it just to the southeast of Beijing—fairly dangerous given their safety record.”

  The major first looked at the technical data on the lieutenant’s screen. Satisfied she used the correct sensors and algorithms to draw an appropriate conclusion, he asked her, “Tell me what you think they’re doing.”

  “Hmmm,” she was delighted the major asked her her opinion. She had already developed her suspicions about Chinese intentions for this launch and was ready with a well thought out answer, “Sir, the Chinese announced the launch beforehand. This usually indicates a commercial launch. However, given the state of near-war we are in, I think that this is a reconnaissance satellite mission. The bird they’re launching is going to keep tabs on our West Coast port facilities.”

  “Good analysis. But why would the Chinese need to use a spy satellite when they probably already have at least 50 agents at each West Coast port site anyway?” The major retorted with a slight smile. The rocket advanced another few hundred miles since their conversation began.