Visions of the Future
Page 64
The idea of a “singularity” has been known to science for many years. For example, there are mathematical singularities (like dividing by zero) and physical singularities (like a black hole). The concept of a “technological singularity” as an intelligence explosion was considered by English mathematician Irving John (I.J.) Good in the 1960s and then by computer scientist and science fiction writer Vernor Vinge in the 1980s. Vinge further developed this idea in his 1993 article entitled “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era,” where he predicted that “within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.” Thus, several authors now define such technological singularity as the moment when artificial intelligence overtakes human intelligence.
In 2005, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil published his best-seller The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, which brought the idea of the technological singularity to the popular media. According to Kurzweil, we are entering a new epoch that will witness the merger of technology and human intelligence through the emergence of a “technological singularity.” Kurzweil believes that an artificial intelligence will first pass the Turing Test by 2029, and then the technological singularity should happen by 2045, when non-biological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of all humans. It will then soar past it because of the continuing acceleration of information-based technologies, as well as the ability of machines to instantly share their knowledge. Eventually, intelligent nanorobots will be deeply integrated in our bodies, our brains, and our environment, solving human problems like pollution and poverty, providing vastly extended longevity, incorporating all of the senses in full-immersion virtual reality, and greatly enhancing human intelligence. The result will be an intimate merger between the technology-creating species and the technological evolutionary process that it spawned.
Kurzweil has also proposed the Law of Accelerating Returns, as a generalization of Moore’s Law to describe the exponential growth of technological progress. Kurzweil extends Moore’s Law to include technologies from before the integrated circuit to future forms of computation. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, he writes, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He predicts that such paradigm shifts will become increasingly common, leading to “technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.” Kurzweil explains that his Law of Accelerating Returns implies that a technological singularity will occur around 2045:
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The ‘returns,’ such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
In 2008, English gerontologist Aubrey de Gray developed the idea of the “Methuselarity.” According to de Gray, the Methuselarity is the “biogerontological counterpart of the singularity” and it corresponds to the point at which medical technology improves so fast that expected human lifespan increases by more than one year per year. He considers the rate of improvement in rejuvenation therapies that is sufficient to outrun the problem of aging: to deplete the levels of all types of damage more rapidly than they are accumulating, even though intrinsically the damage still present will be progressively more recalcitrant. In his writings, de Gray has named this required rate of improvement as the “longevity escape velocity” or LEV. Therefore, “the Methuselarity is, simply, the one and only point in the future at which LEV is achieved.”
Based on similar ideas to the technological singularity and the Methuselarity, I have created the term “Energularity” in order to convey the notion of an exponential growth in our energy and power consumptions. For this, I use the Kardashev scale and I then define the “Energularity” as the time when humanity becomes a Type I civilization. Nikolai Semenovich Kardashev is a Russian astrophysicist who in 1964 proposed a scale to measure the level of technological progress in an advanced civilization. His scale is only theoretical and highly speculative in terms of an actual civilization; however, it puts the energy and power consumptions of an entire civilization in a cosmic perspective. The scale has three designated categories called Type I, Type II, and Type III. These are based on the amount of usable energy that a civilization has available at its disposal, and the degree of space colonization as well. In general terms, a Type I civilization has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet, Type II of its solar system, and Type III of its galaxy.
Table 2 shows the Kardashev scale within the context of different powers from the smallest to the highest values. In fact, the numbers correspond to power levels instead of energy levels, but remember that power is the amount of energy per unit of time: one Watt (or W, the standard SI unit of power) is defined as one Joule (or J, the standard SI unit of energy) per second. Therefore, as long as we are clear about the timespan being considered, there should be no problem using power or energy values consistently. Conversely, the “Energularity” could also be considered as a “Powergularity,” but the first term is actually preferred and used here.
Table 2: Energy Scale and Kardashev Civilization Types (Power in Watts).
Source: Based on Cordeiro (2011)
Example
Power
Scientific notation
Power of Galileo space probe’s radio signal from Jupiter
10 zW
10 × 10-21 watt
Minimum discernable signal of FM antenna radio receiver
2.5 fW
2.5 × 10-15 watt
Average power consumption of a human cell
1 pW
1 × 10-12 watt
Approximate consumption of a quartz wristwatch
1 µW
1 × 10-6 watt
Laser in a CD-ROM drive
5 mW
5 × 10-3 watt
Approximate power consumption of the human brain
30 W
30 × 100 watt
Power of the typical household incandescent light bulb
60 W
60 × 100 watt
Average power used by an adult human body
100 W
100 × 100 watt
Peak power consumption of a Pentium 4 CPU
130 W
130 × 100 watt
Power output (work plus heat) of a person working hard
500 W
500 × 100 watt
Power of a typical microwave oven
1.1 kW
1.1 × 103 watt
Power received from the Sun at the Earth’s orbit per m2
1.366 kW
1.366 × 103 watt
2010 world average power use per person
2.3 kW
2.3 × 103 watt
Average photosynthetic power output per km2 in ocean
3.3–6.6 kW
3.3–6.6 × 103 watt
2010 US average power use per person
12 kW
12 × 103 watt
Average photosynthetic power output per km2 in land
16–32 kW
16–32 × 103 watt
Approximate range of power output of typical automobiles
40–200 kW
40–200 × 103 watt
Peak power output of a blue whale
2.5 MW
2.5 × 106 watt
Mechanical power
output of a diesel locomotive
3 MW
3 × 106 watt
Average power consumption of a Boeing 747 aircraft
140 MW
140 × 106 watt
Peak power output of largest class aircraft carrier
190 MW
190 × 106 watt
Electric power output of a typical nuclear plant
1 GW
1 × 109 watt
Power received from the Sun at the Earth’s orbit by km2
1.4 GW
1.4 × 109 watt
Electrical generation of the Three Gorges Dam in China
18 GW
18 × 109 watt
Power consumption of the first stage of Saturn V rocket
190 GW
190 × 109 watt
2010 US electrical power consumption
0.5 TW
0.5 × 1012 watt
2010 world electrical power consumption
2.0 TW
2.0 × 1012 watt
2010 US total power consumption
3.7 TW
3.7 × 1012 watt
2010 world total power consumption
16 TW
16 × 1012 watt
Average total heat (geothermal) flux from earth’s interior
44 TW
44 × 11012 watt
World total photosynthetic energy production
75 TW
75 × 1012 watt
Heat energy released by a hurricane
50–200 TW
50–200 × 1012 watt
Estimated total available wind energy
870 TW
870 × 1012 watt
World’s most powerful laser pulses
1.2 PW
1.2 × 1015 watt
Estimated heat flux transported by the Gulf Stream
1.4 PW
1.4 × 1015 watt
Total power received by the Earth from the Sun (Type I)
174 PW
174 × 1015 watt
Luminosity of the Sun (Type II)
385 YW
385 × 1024 watt
Approximate luminosity of the Milky Way galaxy (Type III)
5 × 1040 W
5 × 1040 watt
Approximate luminosity of a Quasar
1 × 1040 W
1 × 1040 watt
Approximate luminosity of the Local Supercluster
1 × 1042 W
1 × 1042 watt
Approximate luminosity of a Gamma Ray burst
1 × 1045 W
1 × 1045 watt
Approximate luminosity of all the stars in the known universe
2 × 1049 W
2 × 1049 watt
The Planck Power (basic unit of power in the Planck units)
3.63 × 1052 W
3.63 × 1052 watt
A Type I civilization is one that is able to harness all of the power in a single planet (in our case, planet Earth has about 174 × 1015 W in available power). A Type II civilization is one that can harness all of the power available from a solar system (approximately 385 × 1024 W for our Sun), and a Type III civilization is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy (approximately 5 × 1036 W for the Milky Way). These figures are extremely variable since planets, solar systems, and galaxies vary widely in luminosity, size, and many other important parameters. As a general reference, and using very round numbers, we could say that a Type I civilization can harness about 1016 W, a Type II about 1026 W, and a Type III about 1036 W, all of these figures plus or minus one or two orders of magnitude. In fact, astrophysicist Carl Sagan preferred to use a logarithmic scale instead of the orders of magnitude proposed by Kardashev. Thus, our human civilization is currently at about 0.72 in a logarithmic scale before reaching 1.0 corresponding to Type I status. Such a logarithmic scale indicates a clear exponential growth for energy consumption. Our prehuman ancestors started harnessing fire about half a million years ago, and we should reach Type I status in about one or two centuries, according to theoretical physicist Michio Kaku. This exponential growth is also explained by Kaku, who talks about different propulsion systems available to different types of civilizations:
Type 0:
Chemical rockets
Ionic engines
Fission power
EM propulsion (rail guns)
Type I:
Ram-jet fusion engines
Photonic drive
Type II:
Antimatter drive
Von Neumann nano probes
Type III:
Planck energy propulsion
Space advocates have realized that there are almost unlimited amounts of energy available in outer space. That is why it is so important to reach the “Energularity” and become a Type I civilization that can then explore and colonize the universe, beginning with our own solar system and galaxy. Aerospace engineer Robert Zubrin emphasized that:
Adopting Kardashev’s scheme in slightly altered form, I define a Type I civilization as one that has achieved full mastery of all of its planet’s resources. A Type II civilization is one that has mastered its solar system, while a Type III civilization would be one that has access to the full potential of its galaxy. The trek out of Africa was humanity’s key step in setting itself on the path toward achieving a mature Type I status that the human race now approaches.
The challenge today is to move on to Type II. Indeed, the establishment of a true spacefaring civilization represents a change in human status as fully profound—both as formidable and as pregnant with promise—as humanity’s move from the Rift Valley to its current global society.
Space today seems as inhospitable and as worthless as the wintry wastes of the north might have appeared to an average resident of East Africa 50,000 years ago. But yet, like the north, it is the frontier whose possibilities and challenges will allow and drive human society to make its next great positive transformation.
Other authors have considered even higher types of civilizations than the three originally defined by Kardashev. For example, a Type IV civilization could have control of the energy output of a galactic supercluster (approximately 1042 W in our case) and a Type V civilization could control the energy of the entire universe. Such an advanced civilization would approach or surpass the limits of speculation based on our current scientific understanding, and it may not be possible. Finally, some science fiction authors have written about a Type VI civilization that could control the energy over multiple universes (a power level which could technically be infinite) and also about a Type VII civilization that could have the hypothetical status of a deity (able to create universes at will, using them as an energy source).
Beyond the “Energularity”
Every time you look up at the sky, every one of those points of light is a reminder that fusion power is extractable from hydrogen and other light elements, and it is an everyday reality throughout the Milky Way Galaxy.
—Carl Sagan, 1991
The “Energularity” and Kardashev’s civilization types are originally defined according to the total energy available to a planet. Indeed, our Sun continuously delivers to Earth over 10,000 times the power consumed by humanity today: 174 PW (1.74 × 1017 W) from our Sun versus 16 TW (1.6 × 1013 W) used currently by all humans alive now. Indeed, solar energy is by far the largest external source of energy available to our civilization. However, beyond solar energy, we still have plenty of energy sources available on our planet to move us towards the “Energularity.”
Table 3 shows the different energy contents (specific energy measured in terms of Mega Joules per kilogram, MJ/kg) available in several different materials. Hydropower was one of the first extrasomatic energy sources used by humans, but its energy content is very low: only 0.001 MJ/kg for water stored at a height of 100 meters. Bagasse, animal dung, manure and wood fuels were relatively much better, ranging from 10 to 16 MJ/kg. Humanity then moved to coal, whose energy content goes from about 22 to 30 MJ/kg, depending on the
type and quality of coal. Now hydrocarbon fuels are the main energy source, with 22 to 55 MJ/kg from methanol to methane, for example. Additionally, since the middle of the 20th century, several countries have also started using nuclear fission, and some fast breeder reactors produce 86,000,000 MJ/kg with uranium.
Table 3: Approximate Energy Content of Different Materials. Source: Based on Cordeiro (2011)
Fuel type
Energy content (MJ/kg)
Pumped stored water at 100 m dam height (hydropower)
0.001
Battery, lead acid
0.14
Battery, lithium-ion
0.7
Battery, lithium-ion nanowire
2.5
Bagasse (cane stalks)
10
Animal dung, manure
12–14
Wood fuel (C6H10O5)n
14–16
Sugar (C6H12O6, glucose)
16
Methanol (CH3-OH)
22
Coal (anthracite, lignite, etc.)
22–30
Ethanol (CH3-CH2-OH)
30
LPG (liquefied petroleum gas)
32–34
Butanol (CH3-(CH2)3-OH)
36
Biodiesel
38
Olive oil (C18H34O2)
40
Crude oil (medium petroleum averages)