Visions of the Future
Page 68
Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority, Global Policy, Vol 4, Issue 1 (2013): 15-31. Also available at: http://www.existential-risk.org/concept.html. Dr. Bostrom is Director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford.
For example, Dr. John Lewis makes a rough estimate that there is enough iron in the asteroid belt to build a habitat for 10,000,000,000,000,000 people in [Lewis, Mining the Sky: Untold Riches from the Asteroids, Comets, and Planets, Perseus Publishing, 1997, pg. 194.] All of the other elements necessary for industry and life are also available in abundance.
Philip Metzger et al, “Affordable, Rapid Bootstrapping of Space Industry and Solar System Civilization,” Journal of Aerospace Engineering, April 2012. Dr. Metzger is a former NASA physicist and an expert in extracting resources from lunar regolith.
WILL BRAIN WAVE TECHNOLOGY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A SECOND LANGUAGE?
zoltan istvan
Zoltan is author of the award-winning The Transhumanist Wager available at http://amzn.to/1zSmpRf.
He is running as a 2016 U.S. Presidential candidate under the newly formed Transhumanist Party.
Earlier this year, the first mind-to-mind communication took place. Hooked up to brain wave headsets, a researcher in India projected a thought to a colleague in France, and they understood each other. Telepathy went from the pages of science fiction to reality.
Using electroencephalography (EEG) sensors that pick up and monitor brain activity, brain wave technology has been advancing quickly in the last few years. A number of companies already sell basic brain wave reading devices, such as the Muse headband. Some companies offer headsets that allow you to play a video game on your iPhone using only thoughts. NeuroSky’s MindWave can attach to Google Glass and allow you to take a picture and post it to Facebook and Twitter just by thinking about it. Even the army has (not very well) flown a helicopter using only thoughts and a brain wave headset.
Despite the immense interest in brain wave technology, little attention has been paid to what translation apps—such as Google Translator—will mean to an upcoming generation that will likely embrace brain wave tech. Youth will surely ask “What is the point of learning a second language if everyone will be communicating with brain wave headsets that can perform perfect real-time language translations?”
The question is valid, even if it’s sure to upset millions of second language teachers and dozens of language learning companies, like publicly traded Rosetta Stone. Like it or not, sophisticated brain wave headsets will soon become as cheap as cell phones. A growing number of technologists think the future of communication lies in these headsets, and not handheld devices or smart phones.
However, the question of whether it will be useful to learn a new language in the future is about far more than just human communication and what technological form that takes. Different languages introduce us to other cultures, other peoples, and other countries. This creates personal growth, offering invaluable examination on our own culture and how we perceive the world. The process broadens who we are.
Being proficient in other languages also offers certain nuances that knowing only one language cannot. French offers far more romantic and poetic gist than English ever can. But Arabic is steeped in more historical imagery and connotation than French. And nothing compares to Hungarian’s ability to effectively curse in ways that all other languages fall far short of.
Perhaps most importantly, learning a second language offers the physical brain a chance to grow in new and meaningful ways. The study of a new language, for example, is often suggested to early-onset Alzheimer’s patients to help stimulate the brain’s proper functioning.
Ultimately, the most quintessential question rests on whether there are more important things to be doing in today’s busy world than learning a new language. With radical transhumanist tech changing our most basic functions like communicating, is society better off pushing its youth to learn how to write code, or to speed read, or to play the violin? In hindsight, I would’ve rather spent my time becoming a proficient martial artist than the six years I studied Spanish in school.
Whatever your opinion, the future of learning languages and how we communicate is in flux. Speaking at the 2014 World Future Society conference in Florida, Singularity University Professor José Cordeiro said, “Spoken language could start disappearing in 20 years. We’ll all talk with each other using thoughts scanned and projected from our headsets and maybe even chip implants. This will radically increase the speed and bandwidth of human communications.”
Twenty years isn’t that far off. I’m not ready yet to drop my 4-year-old daughter’s Chinese lessons, but I am keeping my eye on whether technology is going to change some of our basic communication assumptions, like the value of learning a second language.
SMART CITIES GO TO THE DOGS:
HOW TECH-SAVVY CITIES WILL AFFECT THE CANINE POPULATION
brenda cooper
Brenda got started by coauthoring Building Harlequin’s Moon with Larry Niven. She went on to write many other works including The Silver Ship and the Sea, Reading the Wind, Wings of Creation, Mayan December, and The Creative Fire.
You can read her latest novel Edge of Dark at http://amzn.to/16IfFLV.
The following article was originally published October 2014 on Slate.com as part of Future Tense, a collaboration among Arizona State University, New America, and Slate. Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture.
At a recent neighborhood meeting in the medium-size city that I work for, a comment about the growing dog population sparked a heated conversation. Residents—even pet owners—said that they find the increasingly large number of dogs on park pathways difficult to manage. Together, the citizens and city council promised to keep dogs on the agenda. They could stay there for the next 20 years.
According to the United Nations1, half of the world’s population already live in cities, and by 2050, nearly seven out of 10 people worldwide—more than 6 billion people in total—will lead urban lives. Already, megacities are responding to growth by becoming “smart cities.” They are linking tiny embedded sensors with big data analytics and automating systems to make real-time decisions. Suburbs like the one I work in—Kirkland, Washington—are already following in the footsteps of larger metropolises.
In most cases, city networks are monitoring people, cars, electricity, water, and other infrastructure. Intelligent transportation systems in Boston improve traffic flow, smart lighting in San Francisco can be controlled wirelessly and dimmed in the early morning hours if the streets are empty, and surveillance systems in crowded public squares in New York watch for signs of terrorism. New apps help citizens find parking and send Amber Alerts to all cellphones within a specific location. The cities of the future will know where cars, bikes, and people are. They’ll also know about the dogs.
In the United States, there is roughly one dog for every four humans, and the rate of canine ownership keeps rising. In 2011, the number of dogs in the city of Seattle was greater than the number of children: 153,000 dogs to 107,000 children2. New York City is home to more than 600,000 dogs3.
Owners are already keeping better track of their animals. Many dogs are chipped with RFID to identify them if they get lost. Northern Ireland has required chipping since 2013 and beginning in 2016, chipping will be required for all dogs in England4. Many canines also wear collars sporting GPS-enabled devices5 that are least as expensive as their owners’ Fitbits. These chips are often used to find missing or stolen dogs, while everyday uses include keeping tabs on where your dog walker is taking your pooch and tracking the animal’s “personal training” goals. Whether it’s a show dog, a guide dog, or a rescue dog, the emotional cost of a lost animal is often considered incalculable. We want to keep our dogs safe, and we want to know where they are.
In addition to putting sensors on cars and in roads and parks, cities of the future will be able to map the dog populatio
n and the resources devoted to dogs. Dog owners can already look up amenities like dog parks and open water in phone apps. In a few years, they may even be able to tell in advance which dogs are at the park for Fido to play with. And the dog-phobic? They’ll like the same future. Even if there are more dogs in cities in 10 years, it will be easier to tell if they are near you.
Cities themselves might use more information about dogs in a number of ways. Locations for neighborhood parks and fire stations are already selected using geographic information systems to mash up maps with data about people. If city planners know where the dogs live, they can site dog parks using the same technology. Once the information is made public on open data sites, prospective owners of dog-related businesses can use the same tools to decide where to put the dog-friendly pub or dog-wash stations. Another possibility is that the current movement to create special green lanes for bicycles could be mirrored for dogs in certain locations, creating unique dog walks that can be advertised to residents and tourists.
If the United States follows England’s path and requires that all dogs be chipped, then the owners of dogs who end up as strays can be identified and fined. Actual data can be developed about incidents between dogs and people.
With so many four-footed walkers on city streets, keeping people safe from dogs matters. Even though just a small percentage of dogs are dangerous, no one wants to find themselves or their family dog attacked by an untrained animal with a poor handler. If it does happen, we want to find the perpetrator (owner and animal). Even more simply, if we have children who are afraid of dogs, we want to know when one is nearby. Similar to the way crosswalks or intersections with a large number of accidents are often improved, parks where dogs and people clash might be tweaked to improve safety for both.
When I was growing up, there were seeing-eye dogs. Today, they are called guide dogs, and there are also hearing dogs for the deaf and service dogs who help with a range of conditions including PTSD, poor balance, epilepsy, autism, and more. One of the most moving chapters in Until Tuesday6, the best-selling book about an Iraq war vet and his dog Tuesday, covers an incident where a bus driver refused to believe that Tuesday was a legitimate service dog and tried to keep him off the bus. As more and more dogs of different kinds act as service dogs, knowing which ones truly are trained for crowded places like buses, concerts, and restaurants is going to become more important. RFID chips could easily identify service dogs and help keep the riffraff (ruffruff?) out.
Managing dogs adds costs to local government budgets. As city dogs continue to gain the attention of neighborhood meetings, pet licensing is going to become even more critical. Typically, licenses are designed to pay for at least part of the animal control resources in a city, including pounds, license enforcement, and education. Just for fun, I ran the numbers in my own county. Kings County, Washington, has roughly 2 million people, and thus about half a million dogs. At $30 a license, that’s $15 million a year (if all dogs were licensed). Licenses are physical tags, and it won’t be hard to add RFID, Bluetooth, and GPS to them in the near future.
I won’t be at all surprised if some time soon, when I register our dogs for new licenses, I have to enter their RFID and maybe GPS chip data. And just think of all the interesting apps that might be developed with open data sets about dogs.
ENDNOTES
World’s population increasingly urban with more than half living in urban areas at http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html.
Seattle’s Dog Obsession at http://www.seattlemag.com/article/seattles-dog-obsession.
New York City’s Pet Population at http://www.nycedc.com/blog-entry/new-york-city-s-pet-population.
Dogs in England must be microchipped from 2016 at http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-21345730.
Tagg GPS Pet Tracker – Dog and Cat Collar Attachment at http://amzn.to/1zVEds3.
Until Tuesday at http://amzn.to/1AHXdhY.
REPUTATION CURRENCIES
heather schlegel
Heather is a scientist of the future. She observes technology and its impact on transactions, money, economies, relationships, intimacy, and personal identity. She has helped build and launch more than 50 internet products at other 30 startups and is known by her apt moniker heathervescent. Read her bio at http://lifeboat.com/ex/bios.heather.schlegel.
This article is sponsored by (ICE): The Institute of Customer Experience.
Today’s world increasingly challenges us to think differently about value and money. Almost everyone agrees that reputation is important. But how important is it? Does it have an impact on your finances? What is the currency of reputation and is it transferable or exchangeable?
The “Like” is a currency created by artist Dadara to provoke discussion around the value of a Facebook like. Image source: http://on.fb.me/1FnNEDj
How is reputation created?
Reputation is co-created by individuals having experiences. Looking for a great Italian restaurant for dinner tonight? Search Yelp reviews and see what people who have already dined at a place have to say about it. Want to know what it’s like to work with a potential hire? Read their Linkedln referrals. Wondering whether or not other people are happy with a product you’re about to buy? Amazon reviews will tell you. You’ve probably even shared your own experiences with something you enjoyed or to warn others about a less than positive experience. Your FICO score measures your credit risk, which is really credit reputation, based on your behavior.
But reputation is not always clear-cut. You’ve probably read reviews in which equal numbers of people give raves or have had a bad experience. Values, economic ability and taste all factor into someone’s experience and subsequent review. Reputation can be messy and reviews difficult to differentiate. Reputation is not a fixed asset. Your FICO score, which is your financial reputation, is not set in stone. It changes as your credit habits change.
This brings us to a subject that is not often discussed and doesn’t have a good technical solution: people change and their reputation does too. However, the way people think about each other’s reputation doesn’t necessarily keep pace with the changes. Outdated stigmas remain attached to individuals, products and services. We don’t have a good ability to forgive mistakes and accept positive change. In the digital world there’s the growing pressure for certain events and information to be forgotten. The recent EU ruling requires Google to remove information when requested. This is a clumsy solution to the problem of changing reputation. We need to have a technical solution that can honestly reflect reputational ebbs and flows.
When you need to pay your bills, you can’t go to your LinkedIn page and cash out your recommendations like withdrawing money from an ATM. However, your reputation does influence your cash flow. Positive recommendations may increase the kind and amount of work you’re offered and your ability to increase your salary. A better reputation does lead to increased cash flow.
Reputation is a requirement of the sharing economy. For AirBnB hosts and Uber and Lyft drivers, positive ratings are paramount to their success. It might seem crazy to stay at a stranger’s house, but on AirBnB, host reviews facilitate trust among strangers. On a recent trip to Madrid, I selected an AirBnB location based on the reviews of the host, Sancho. I wanted to stay with someone who knew the local area and could suggest places to visit. When I met Sancho in person, not only did he tell me the best places to go, we became fast friends. This experience has happened to me many times—whether I was hosting or being hosted.
When you know what to expect, you can be more relaxed and focus on the experience. Reviews on AirBnB enable you to select the travel experience you want—thanks to the travelers who stayed there before you. Your AirBnB, Yelp and eBay reviews have immense values outside their immediate platforms. Even though these reputation systems have been created for the specific company—imagine how powerful it would be to have your reputation in one place.
Is reputation transferable?
Is it possible for reputation to be exchanged from one platform to another?
I was recently told a story that illustrates how reputation can be transferred. Uber and Lyft are both independent operator ride-sharing platforms. Both companies facilitate the connection between driver and passenger. Drivers must be reviewed and approved before giving rides through their system. In a move to gain more drivers and compete with Lyft, Uber offered bonuses to tempt already approved Lyft drivers to the Uber platform. In some cases, it was easier for a new driver to go through the Lyft approval process and then switch companies, than it was to apply directly to Uber.
This is an unusual example of the direct immediate transfer of reputation.
Reputation and the Future
Reputation will be a visible part of our everyday transaction experience.
SCENARIO 1:
SMART CHECK DEVICE
In the below scenario four friends are splitting the check through a SmartCheck device. Though the SmartCheck, they can rate their dining experience right there. The restaurant gathers immediate feedback—and if the restaurant wanted, the server could rate the diners.
Watch Scenario No. 1
Fly Me to the Moon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbZu1WNJNLQ
SCENARIO 2:
MOTORCYCLE FOR SALE
Ever try to sell something on a classified service? It’s often hard to figure out who is a scammer and who is a qualified buyer. In the below scenario, a woman is looking at motorcycles for sale. The seller’s reputation is shown as a “verification” checkmark on their profile. This helps the buyer judge which seller she wants to deal with.