Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction

by Newitz, Annalee

  4. “I’m of the mind that we’re going to fuck everything up”: Personal interview, May 7, 2012.

  5. “pollution sensing lung tumor”: You can see this design, along with several more from the Synthetic Kingdom series, on Ginsberg’s website here: http://www.daisyginsberg.com/projects/synthetickingdom.html.

  6. The British author Paul McAuley has suggested in recent novels: Personal correspondence, June 12, 2012. See also The Quiet War (Amherst, NY: Pyr Books, 2009).

  7. Kim Stanley Robinson, another science-fiction author: Personal interview, June 18, 2012. Robinson’s most recent novel about how synbio modifications will be part of space colonization is called 2312 (New York: Orbit Books, 2012).

  8. Nick Bostrom heads the institute, where he’s written widely cited articles: Personal interview, May 8, 2012. See also Bostrom’s considerable body of work on this subject, starting with “When Machines Outsmart Humans,” Futures 35 (2000): 759–64. You can read the full text of this essay, along with many others, on Bostrom’s personal website: http://www.nickbostrom.com. I’d also recommend an essay collection Bostrom coedited with Milan ´Cirkovi´c called Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008). This is a book produced by the Institute for the Future of Humanity, and it introduces many of the key concerns the institute addresses, including the intelligence explosion.

  9. “having a biological body in space is stupid”: Personal interview, May 8, 2012.

  10. Many evolutionary biologists believe that humans are still evolving: Many recent studies deal with how humans are still under selection. For example: Alexandre Courtiol et al., “Natural and Sexual Selection in a Monogamous Historical Human Population,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (March 28, 2012): 8044–49. Courtiol and his colleagues argue that a thorough examination of the lineages of a Finnish village reveals natural and sexual selection at work, producing people who meet definitions of fitness involving better resistance to disease. Other researchers look at the human genome, and have discovered that some genes are undergoing fairly rapid transformation. Bruce Lahn and his colleagues describe how two genes that regulate gene size appear to be rapidly evolving in humans: P. D. Evans, S. L. Gilbert, N. Mekel-Bobrov, E. J. Vallender, J. R. Anderson, et al., “Microcephalin, a Gene Regulating Brain Size, Continues to Evolve Adaptively in Humans,” Science 309 (2005): 1717. John Hawks has also written about this in a paper with his colleagues: “Recent Acceleration of Human Adaptive Evolution,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 (December 26, 2007): 20753–58.

  11. I spoke to Oana Marcu, a SETI Institute biologist: Personal interview, June 23, 2012.

  CHAPTER TWENTY-THREE: ON TITAN’S BEACH

  1. “Our kids are the last generation”: Personal interview, June 26, 2012.

  2. Armin Kleinboehl is far more conservative in his estimates: I spoke with Kleinboehl on June 10, 2012, during the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s annual open house, a fantastic event where scientists meet members of the general public, give them tours of the facilities, and explain what people at the lab are studying. Find out more about the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter here: http://science.jpl.nasa.gov/projects/MRO/.

  3. Futurists like Ray Kurzweil: See, for example, Kurzweil’s book The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (New York: Penguin Books, 2006). Other futurists who suggest the future is speeding up include Nick Bostrom, whose work I discuss in chapter 22, and Bill Joy in his famous essay “Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us,” Wired 8.04 (April 2000). Among futurists, this idea is sometimes referred to as “Moore’s law.” The sobriquet was originally intended to describe how computer chips improve exponentially over time. Now it’s used to describe any exponential growth in scientific knowledge over time.

  4. a project run by the doctor and former astronaut Mae Jemison: Personal interview, June 23, 2012.

  5. planetary scientist Nathalie Cabrol: Personal interview, June 23, 2012. For more about Cabrol’s work in the high lakes, see N. A. Cabrol et al., “The High-Lakes Project,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 114 (2009): G00D06. She also has an incredible field log of some of her work there, which you can read here: http://www.highlakes.seti.org/.

  6. led the celebrated science historian Richard Rhodes to speculate: He made this speculation on the panel “All Aboard the 100 Year Starship” at SETICon II (June 23, 2012). He was specifically referring to Jemison’s work, but I think it’s fair to say that Cabrol’s is relevant here too.

  ILLUSTRATION CREDITS

  ill.1 Illustration by Stephanie A. Fox

  ill.2 Illustration by Stephanie A. Fox

  ill.3 Illustration by Stephanie A. Fox

  ill.4 Illustration by John Sibbick

  ill.5 Peter Roopnarine, Jonathan Mitchell, and Kenneth Angielczyk

  ill.6 Illustration by Stephanie A. Fox

  ill.7 © The British Library Board. Royal MS 18.E.i-ii f. 175 (date: 1385–1400).

  ill.8 David Kilper for Washington University

  ill.9 ANIMALS ANIMALS © Bob Cranston

  ill.10 Illustration by Stephanie A. Fox

  ill.11 Courtesy O. H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory, Oregon State University

  ill.12 Shakhzod Takhirov, Site Operations Manager of nees@berkeley, University of California at Berkeley

  ill.13 From On the Mode of Communication of Cholera, by John Snow, published by C. F. Cheffins, Lith., Southampton Buildings, London, England, 1854.

  ill.14 Tim Barker/Lonely Planet Images/Getty Images

  ill.15 Glenn Beanland/Lonely Planet Images/Getty Images

  ill.16 Photo by Robinson Esparza

  ill.17 © Guardian News & Media Ltd., 2011

  ill.18 Ron Miller

  ill.19 NASA Artwork by Pat Rawlings/Eagle Applied Sciences

  ill.20 Cassini Radar Mapper, JPL, ESA, NASA

  INDEX

  Page numbers in italics refer to illustrations.

  aerosols, 19.1, 20.1

  ship, 19.1, nts.1n

  Aerospace Corporation

  Africa, 6.1, 10.1, 13.1

  droughts in, 9.1, 18.1

  human migration out of, itr.1, itr.2, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 23.1

  African replacement theory (recent African origins theory), 7.1, 7.2

  agnathan fish

  Ailor, William

  algae blooms

  Alvarez, Luis

  Alvarez, Walter, 4.1, 4.2

  American Museum of Natural History, 6.1, 6.2

  Americas, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1, nts.1n

  colonial plagues in, 8.1, 13.1

  ammonites, 2.1, 2.2

  amphibians, itr.1, itr.2

  crurotarsans, 3.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4

  fungal infections of

  Amsterdam

  Anderson, Chris, 22.1, 22.2

  Appalachian Mountains, 2.1, 2.2, 19.1

  Aramaic language

  Armitage, Simon

  armored fish, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3

  Armstrong, Rachel

  artificial intelligence (AI), 22.1, 23.1

  Artyukhov, Vasilii

  Assyrian empire, 8.1, 10.1, 10.2, nts.1n

  asteroid impacts, itr.1, itr.2, itr.3, itr.4, 1.1, 20.1

  deadly aftermath of

  defending against, 20.1, 23.1

  Torino scale of, 20.1, 20.2, 21.1, nts.1n

  Australopithecus, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3

  autotrophs

  Axelbaum, Richard

  Aztec empire, 8.1, 14.1

  BacillaFilla

  background extinction rate, 1.1, 2.1, 5.1

  bacteria, 3.1, 16.1, 18.1, 18.2

  Yersinia pestis, 8.1, 16.1

  Baghdad

  Barnardos, Andreas

  Barnosky, Anthony

  bats, 4.1, 16.1

  bees, Colony Collapse Disorder of, itr.1, nts.1n

  Before the Lights Go Out (Koerth-Baker),

  Benjamin, David

  Benton, Mike, itr.1, 3.1

  Bigelow, Robert />
  biodiversity, 2.1, 4.1, nts.1n

  biological cities, 18.1, 22.1

  biomimesis

  bioreactors, 18.1, 18.2

  birds, 4.1, 4.2, 6.1

  Black Atlantic, The (Gilroy),

  Black Death (bubonic plague), 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 16.1, 16.2

  Church officials’ response to, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3

  death tolls of, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5

  origin of, 8.1, 16.1

  1665 Great Plague of

  social effects of, 8.1, 8.2

  stages of

  urban poverty and, 8.1, 8.2

  blue-green algae, see cyanobacteria

  blue whales

  Blythe, David

  boron nitride nanotubes

  Bostrom, Nick, 22.1, 23.1, nts.1n

  bottlenecks, genetic, itr.1, 6.1

  low genetic diversity linked to, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, nts.1n

  migration and

  serial founder theory of, 6.1, 6.2

  speciation events in, 6.1, 6.2

  Toba megavolcano and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3

  Buikstra, Jane

  building codes, 15.1, 15.2, 17.1

  Butler, Octavia, 13.1, 19.1, 22.1, 23.1

  Cabrol, Nathalie, 23.1, nts.1n

  California Institute of Technology

  CAMP (Central Atlantic magmatic province)

  Canada, 16.1, 18.1, 18.2, 19.1

  Canfield, Donald

  Cann, Rebecca

  Canterbury Tales, The (Chaucer), 8.1, 8.2, 8.3

  Caral, 14.1, 14.2

  carbon cycle, 1.1, 19.1, 19.2

  carbon emissions, 5.1, 9.1, 15.1, 19.1, 19.2, 21.1, nts.1n

  carbon nanotubes, 21.1, 21.2

  carbon sequestration, 11.1, 18.1, 18.2, 19.1, 19.2

  Carmody, John

  Cascio, Jamais, 19.1, 19.2, 19.3, 19.4

  Çatalhöyük, 14.1, 1.11, 14.2

  cave dwellings, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4

  cave paintings, 5.1, 6.1

  CDC (Centers for Disease Control), 16.1, 16.2, 16.3, 16.4, 16.5

  CD3WD database, nts.1n

  Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies

  Chaucer, Geoffrey, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, nts.1n

  Chicxulub crater

  China, 11.1, 16.1, 16.2, 17.1, nts.1n

  Great Leap Forward of, 9.1, 9.2

  chloroplasts, 11.1, 11.2

  cholera, 16.1, 16.2, 16.3

  Chu, Steven

  CIA (Central Intelligence Agency)

  Cincinnati, University of

  circadian rhythms

  cities, itr.1, itr.2, 8.1, 13.1, 14.1, 23.1

  agricultural development and

  ancient

  disaster-resistant, see disaster science

  earliest, 14.1, 14.2

  economic success of

  eco-technologies in, 14.1, 18.1

  emergent property of

  endurance of

  energy used by

  experimental ideas tolerated by

  grassroots development of

  green spaces in, 14.1, 14.2, 18.1

  key components of

  as living process, 14.1, 18.1

  medieval

  mounds created by

  people socialized by, 14.1, 14.2

  poverty in, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3

  pre-Columbian American

  proto-, 5.1

  public health in, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 16.1

  sidewalk life of

  specialized skills required by

  stochastic

  storm-water runoff in, 18.1, 18.2

  successful, 14.1, 14.2

  traffic reduction in

  see also farm cities; underground cities

  civilizations, 8.1, 8.2, 13.1, 14.1, 20.1, 23.1

  interplanetary

  interstellar

  pre-Columbian American

  rebuilding of, nts.1n

  Clarke, Arthur C.

  Claudius, Emperor of Rome

  Climate Hazards Group

  coal, clean

  coal gap

  Coburn, Brian

  Cochran, Gregory

  Columbian Exchange, The (Crosby),

  concrete, 17.1, nts.1n

  self-healing, 18.1, 22.1, 22.2

  Contagion, 16.1, 16.2

  continental drift, 2.1, 2.2, 3.1, 4.1

  coral reefs, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 4.1

  cores, drill

  cosmic radiation, itr.1, itr.2, itr.3, itr.4, 2.1, 17.1

  Country in the City, The (Walker),

  Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) mass extinction, itr.1, 3.1, 4.1, 20.1, nts.1n–70n

  flaming-ball-of-death controversy and

  survivors of

  crinoids

  Crosby, Alfred

  crurotarsans, 3.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4

  Cuba

  cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), itr.1, 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 5.1, 10.1, 11.1, 11.2

  chloroplasts and, 11.1, 11.2

  circadian rhythms of

  in clean coal technology

  famine’s lack of effect on

  hydrogen-releasing, 11.1, 11.2

  nitrogen fixation by

  symbiotic relationships of, 11.1, 11.2

  see also photosynthesis

  cyborgs, 22.1, 22.2

  cycadeoids

  dating techniques

  Dawkins, Richard, 6.1, 6.2

  Death and Life of Great American Cities, The (Jacobs),

  Deccan Plateau

  DeLong, Brad

  Denisovans, 6.1, 7.1, 7.2

  Derinkuyu, 17.1, 17.2, 17.3

  Despommier, Dickson

  Devonian Period, itr.1, 2.1, 2.2

  extinction of

  DeWitte, Sharon

  Diamond, Jared, 8.1, nts.1n

  Diaspora,

  diaspora, human, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 10.1

  see also Jews

  diatoms

  Dikötter, Frank

  dimetrodon

  dinosaurs

  body postures of

  evolution of, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3

  extinction of, itr.1, 3.1, 4.1; see also Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) mass extinction

  feathers of

  therapod, 4.1, 4.2

  as Triassic survivors

  disaster science, 14.1, 15.1, 23.1

  building codes and, 15.1, 15.2, 17.1

  cost of, 15.1, 15.2

  death tolls and, 15.1, 15.2

  earthquakes in, 15.1, 15.2, 15.3, 15.4

  explosions in

  flooding in, 15.1, 15.2, 15.3, 15.4, 15.5

  landslides in, 15.1, 15.2

  prediction in

  rescue innovation in

  tsunamis in, 15.1, 15.2, 15.3

  DNA, 1.1, 2.1, nts.1n, nts.2n

  Jewish

  mitochondrial

  mutated, 6.1, 16.1, 22.1

  Neanderthal, 6.1, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.7

  sequencing of, 6.1, 8.1

  symbolic thought and

  in synthetic biology

  dolphins

  Driscoll, Simon, 19.1, 19.2, 19.3

  droughts, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 19.1, nts.1n

  prediction of

  dust-bowl famines, 9.1, 9.2

  Eaarth (McKibben),

  earthquakes, 15.1, 15.2, 15.3, 15.4, 17.1

  ecosystems, itr.1, 1.1, 2.1, 4.1, 18.1, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, 19.1, nts.1n

  food webs of, 3.1, 3.2

  homogeneous

  Permian

  vulnerable, famines and, 9.1, 9.2

  Edwards, Bradley, 21.1, 21.2, 21.3, nts.1n

  Edward III, King of England

  endosymbiotic theory

  Energetic Materials Research and Testing Center

  energy, 14.1, 17.1, 18.1

  future sources of

  solar, 11.1, 14.1, 14.2, 18.1, 18.2, 19.1

  sustainable, 14.1, 19.1, 19.2, 21.1, 21.2

  England, 8.1, 8.2, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 18.1

  blacks in

  Dover cliffs of

  feudalism in
, 8.1, 8.2

  Peasants’ Revolt in, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.1

  see also Black Death; Oxford Martin School

  enhanced weathering

  entitlements, theory of, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4

  environmentalist movement, 12.1, 14.1, nts.1n

  environmental-protection laws

  epidemic modeling

  air travel spread in, 16.1, 16.2, 16.3

  of cholera, 16.1, 16.2, 16.3

  health surveillance in, 16.1, 16.2

  ideal response in

  patterns of infection in, 16.1, 16.2

  rural vs. urban areas in, 16.1, 16.2

  vaccinating children in, 16.1, 16.2

  see also pandemics

  eukaryotes

  Europe, 1.1, 23.1

  evolution, 11.1, nts.1n–79n

  of dinosaurs, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3

  of feathers, 4.1, 6.1

  of gray whales

  natural selection in, 22.1, nts.1n

  Permian

  evolution, human, itr.1, 2.1, 4.1, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1

  adaptations in, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 7.1

  bipedalism in, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4

  brain size in, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 7.1, 22.1

  hominins in, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, nts.1n–72n

  language in, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 7.1

  leg length in

  ongoing, 22.1, 22.2, nts.1n–92n

  sexual selection in, 6.1, 6.2, 22.1, nts.1n

  symbolic communication in, 6.1, 6.2, 7.1

  walking in, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3

  evolution, human, future, 4.1, 13.1, 22.1

  machine superintelligence and

  and radiation bombardment in space, 22.1, 22.2

  synthetic biology in

  uploaded brains in, 22.1, 23.1, 23.2

  Exodus, book of, 10.1, 10.2, nts.1n

  fairy chimneys, 17.1, 17.2

  famines, 7.1, 8.1, 8.2, 9.1, 17.1, 18.1

  of China’s Great Leap Forward, 9.1, 9.2

  cyanobacteria’s immunity to

  death tolls of, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5

  drought in, see droughts

  Greek, in World War II, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4

  humanitarian aid for, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3

  Irish Potato (Black ’47), 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4

  Malthusian view of

  marketplace and

  1930s dust-bowl, 9.1, 9.2

  poverty and, 8.1, 8.2, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3

  prevention of

  survivors of, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3

  vulnerable ecosystems in, 9.1, 9.2

  warfare and, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5

  farm cities, 14.1, 17.1, 18.1, 18.2