The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics

by Andrew Small

  The Chinese material is of mixed quality. Some studies are disappointing collections of platitudes. There are any number of highly misleading descriptions of the history of Sino-Pakistani nuclear cooperation that are contradicted even by semi-official Pakistani accounts. But there is also increasingly good source material emerging here too, whether on key historical moments, such as Cheng Xiaohe’s archive-based account of China’s role in the 1965 war, “China’s Aid toward Pakistan in the India-Pakistan War II”;14 frank assessments of current priorities in the region, such as Hu Shisheng’s “Afghan Reconstruction: Regional Challenges”;15 or the broader strategic context, such as Wang Jisi’s now widely-cited “Westward: China’s Rebalancing Geopolitical Strategy”.16 The detailed translations of the Chinese-language sources were provided by Zhao Yuxi.

  The book has also drawn on the significant existing literature on some of the better trodden topics. The subject of China-Pakistan nuclear cooperation is well covered by the cluster of excellent books around the A.Q. Khan network, such as Gordon Corera’s Shopping For Bombs,17 by studies from the likes of Mark Hibbs on the civil nuclear side, and Evan Medeiros on China’s proliferation practices, and by the context provided in works such as George Perkovich’s India’s Nuclear Bomb: the Impact on Global Proliferation.18 The counter-terrorism section pulls together much of the existing research on Xinjiang, such as S. Fredrick Starr’s Xinjiang: China’s Muslim Borderland,19 and on Central Asia and Afghanistan, such as Ahmed Rashid’s Jihad: The Rise of Military Islam in Central Asia;20 and sources on individual operations, such as the accounts provided in the Long War Journal. It goes without saying that I have also benefited from the defining works on Pakistan by Stephen Cohen and on Afghanistan by Barnett Rubin. Some important new books also came out while this one was being written, including Feroz Khan’s Eating Grass: the Making of the Pakistani Bomb,21 Gary Bass’s The Blood Telegram: Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide,22 and Daniel Markey and Hussain Haqqani’s studies of US-Pakistan relations. Much of the rest of the work has been a filleting process, extracting the China-related snippets from an assortment of other archives, memoirs, monographs and media reports. I sometimes benefited as much from an afternoon sifting through former diplomats’ memoirs in Saeed Book Bank in Islamabad or Shah M books in Kabul as I did from my official interviews.

  Versions of much of the material in this text have been tested out through various seminars, unpublished conference papers, and critiques of earlier publications. These have included articles for GMF, such as “Afghanistan-Pakistan: Bringing China (back) in”;23 for the Washington Quarterly, “China’s Caution on Afghanistan/Pakistan”;24 and for Foreign Policy, “Why is China Talking to the Taliban?”25 and “China’s Afghan Moment”.26 Papers on Chinese contingency planning prepared for presentations at the Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations, on China’s counterterrorism policy for Sciences Po, and on “China and Instability in South Asia” for CSIS all benefited considerably from the associated workshops, and informed the relevant sections of the text.

  Despite the growing interest in the subject and the increasing accessibility of the information, the number of people working on the subject, particularly those undertaking on-the-ground research, has not grown that much larger in the past six years (indeed, one member of that small group, Alexandros Petersen, tragically lost his life in the January 2014 Kabul restaurant attack). This remains a serious challenge in the process of developing a set of robust and detailed studies in what is still a thinly covered field. For many topics covered in this book, while I have been able to take a first cut, there is a huge amount of work still to be done.

  NOTES

  PROLOGUE: IN THE SHADOW OF THE RED MOSQUE

  1. The title is owed to “In the Shadow of Lal Masjid”, China Matters, 7 Nov. 2007, http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2007/11/in-shadow-of-lal-masjid.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  2. Aijazuddin, F.S., From A Head, Through A Head, To A Head: The Secret Channel between the US and China through Pakistan, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2000, p. 20.

  3. For an excellent compilation of all the detailed reporting in the Pakistani press, see: Nur Al Haq, “Lal Masjid Crisis”, IPRI Factfile, 2007, http://ipripak.org/factfiles/ff90.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  4. Syed Mohsin Naqbi, “Hostages freed after raid on ‘brothel’”, CNN, 23 Jun. 2007, http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/06/23/pakistan.raid/index.html?eref=rss_world, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  5. Minxin Pei, “Party and the Patriot”, Indian Express, 21 Jul. 2012, http://www.gmfus.org/archives/party-and-the-patriot/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  6. Shakeel Anjum, “Lal Masjid cleric free Chinese”, The News, 24 Jun. 2007, http://archive.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=8648&Cat=13&dt=6/16/2007, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  7. “Pakistan GDP Growth Rate 1951–2009”, Data Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan, http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2b/Pakistan_gdp_growth_rate.svg, last accessed 22 Dec. 2013.

  8. Aasif Inam, “Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan Telecommunication Sector”, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority Federal Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan, http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/finance/work-cost-tariffs/events/tariff-seminars/Korea-07/presentations/FDI_Aasif_Inam.pdf, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  9. “Record-breaking spree at KSE on better earnings expectations”, Daily Times, 27 Dec. 2007, http://archives.dailytimes.com.pk/business/27-Dec-2007/record-breaking-spree-at-kse-on-better-earnings-expectations, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014; “KSE Stock Market”, Wiki Invest, http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/KSE_Stock_Market, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  10. Steve Coll, “The Back Channel”, New Yorker, 2 Mar. 2009, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/03/02/090302fa_fact_coll, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  11. Ahmed Rashid, “Taliban Temptation”, Far Eastern Economic Review, 11 Mar. 1999, p. 29.

  12. Anne Kornblut, “Encounters: Jon Stewart and Pervez Musharraf ”, New York Times, 26 Sep. 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/26/us/politics/26pfun.html?_r=0, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  13. Schmidle, Nicholas S., To Live or to Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan, USA: Henry Holt and Company, 2009, p. 91.

  14. Lieven, Anatol, Pakistan: A Hard Country, New York: Public Affairs, 2011, p157.

  15. Amelie Blom, “Changing Religious Leadership in Contemporary Pakistan: The Case of the Red Mosque”, in Bolognani, Marta and Stephen M. Lyon (eds.), Pakistan and Its Diaspora: Multidisciplinary Approaches, New York: Palgrave, 2011; Syed Shoaib Hasan, “Profile: Islamabad’s Red Mosque”, BBC News, 27 Jul. 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6503477.stm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  16. Ibid.

  17. Ibid. p. 113.

  18. Graham Usher, “Red Mosque: Endgame for Musharraf?”, The Nation, 30 Jul. 2007, http://www.thenation.com/article/red-mosque-endgame-musharraf#,last accessed 25 Jan. 2014.

  19. “Obituary: Abdul Rashid Ghazi”, BBC News, 10 Jul. 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6281228.stm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; “Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi freed on my intervention: Ejaz”, Pak Tribune, http://www.paktribune.com/news/print.php?id=174827, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Hussain, Zahid, The Scorpion’s Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan—and How it Threatens America, New York: Free Press, 2010, p. 113.

  20. Ibid. p. 114.

  21. Syed Saleem Shahzad, “Pakistan: Trouble in the Mosque”, Asia Times, 12 Apr. 2007, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ID12Df03.html,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  22. Zhang Cheng, “Jiang Yili, from a scholar to a diplomat”, China Radio International, 3 Oct. 2010, http://english.cri.cn/4406/2010/03/10/2401s555552.htm, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  23. Syed Irfan Raza, “Chinese hostages freed”, Dawn, 23 Jun. 2007, http://www.dawn.com/news/253217/chinese-hostages-freed, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  24. Ibid.;“All 9 Hostages Held in Pakistani Capital Released
”, China Radio International, 23 Jun. 2007, http://english.cri.cn/2947/2007/06/23/176@241684.xhtml, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  25. Shakeel Anjum, “Lal Masijd cleric free Chinese”, Dawn, 24 Jun. 2007, http://archive.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=8648&Cat=13&dt=6/16/2007, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  26. Syed Irfan Raza, “Chinese hostages freed”, Dawn, 23 Jun. 2007, http://www.dawn.com/news/253217/chinese-hostages-freed, last accessed 23 Dec. 2013, Ibid.

  27. Shakeel Anjum, “Lal Masjid cleric free Chinese”, The News, 24 Jun. 2007, http://archive.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=8648&Cat=13&dt=6/16/2007, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014

  28. Ibid.

  29. Syed Irfan Raza, “Chinese hostages freed”, Dawn, 24 Jun. 2007, http://www.dawn.com/news/253217/chinese-hostages-freed, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  30. Ibid.

  31. “Editorial: Lal Masjid’s damage to Pak-China Relations”, Daily Times, 29 Jun. 2007, http://archives.dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/29-Jun-2007/editorial-lal-masjid-s-damage-to-pak-china-relations, last accessed 13 Dec. 2013.

  32. “Pakistan told to do more to protect Chinese workers”, AAJ News, 27 Jun., 2007, http://www.aaj.tv/2007/06/pakistan-told-do-more-to-protect-chinese-workers/, last accessed 12 Dec. 2013.

  33. Mathieu Duchâtel, “The Old Friend and the Three Evils: China’s Policy towards Pakistan”, presentation at the 23rd Conference of the Association of Chinese Political Studies, Endicott College, Boston, 30–31 Jul., 2010.

  34. B. Raman, “How China Forced Musharraf To Move”, Outlook India, 4 Jul. 2007, http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?235015, last accessed 20 Jan. 2014.

  35. Author interviews in Lahore, Islamabad, Brussels, Washington DC, December 2008–June 2013.

  36. Pervez Musharraf, “Address to the Nation: Declaration of Emergency”, speaking on national TV, 3 Nov. 2007, video (in Urdu) and English translation available at Manan Ahmed, “The General Speaks”, Informed Comment: Global Affairs, 4 Nov. 2007. Note that the official printed text of the speech differs from that delivered on television. The source used here is a translation of the video.

  37. Al Haq, Nur, “Lal Masjid Crisis”, Islamabad Policy Research Institute Fact File, 2007, p. 90, http://ipripak.org/factfiles/ff90.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  38. High estimates are given by, for instance, Schmidle, Nicholas S., To Live or to Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan, USA: Henry Holt and Company, 2009, p. 151; and other press reporting from the time, such as: “300 confirmed dead in Lal Masjid Operation”, Pak Tribune, 12 Jul. 2007, http://paktribune.com/news/300-confirmed-dead-in-Lal-Masjid-Operation-183843.html, last accessed 23 Dec. 2013; “103 people killed in Lal Masjid operation”, Pakistan Today, 20 Apr. 2013, http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/04/103-people-killed-in-lal-masjid-operation-report/,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  39. Singh, R.S.N., The Military Factor in Pakistan, India: Lancer Publishers, 2008, p. 426.

  40. “Three Chinese killed in Pakistan”, China Daily, 9 Jul. 2007, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007–07/09/content_5421741.htm, last accessed 25 Jan. 2014; http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6282574.stm

  41. Luo Zhaohui quoted in “Mosque is Pakistan’s ‘internal matter’”, China Daily, 18 Jul. 2007, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2007–07/18/con-tent_5438233.htm, last accessed 24 Jan. 2014.

  42. “Hectic efforts under way for release of Chinese Nationals”, PakTribune, 4 Sep. 2008, http://www.paktribune.com/news/print.php?id=205296, last accessed 24 Jan. 2014.

  43. Author interview in Peshawar, Jun.2013.

  44. Akbar Nasir Khan, “Analyzing Suicide Attacks in Pakistan”, Conflict and Peace Studies, Vol. 3, No. 4, Oct.-Dec. 2010, https://www.academia.edu/386901/Analysing_Suicide_Attacks_in_Pakistan, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  45. Hussain, Zahid, The Scorpion’s Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan—And How it Threatens America, Free Press, 2010, p. 120.

  46. Ibid. p. 118.

  47. “Editorial: 60 Miles from Islamabad”, New York Times, 26 April 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/opinion/27mon1.html, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  48. Author interview in Washington DC, Apr. 2010.

  INTRODUCTION

  1. Douglas Paal, ‘China and the East Asian Security Environment: Complementarity and Competition’, in Vogel, Ezra, Living with China: U.S./China Relations in the Twenty First Century, Norton, 1997, p. 113; Mohan Malik, ‘The China Factor in the India-Pakistan Conflict’, Parameters, Spring 2003, p. 62.

  2. Ashley Tellis, “New Delhi, Washington: Who Gets What?”, Times of India, 30 Jan. 2010, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010–01–30/india/28119085_1_global-community-robert-d-blackwill-kashmir/2, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  3. Amir Mir, “China seeks military bases in Pakistan”, Asia Times, 26 October, 2011 and Saurabh Shukla, “China plans military base in Northern Pakistan, says report”. India Today, 24 Jan, 2012.

  4. Amir Karim Tantray, “Pakistan govt leases land in Gilgit to China”, Hindustan Times, 24 March, 2012.

  5. Selig S. Harrison, “China’s Discreet Hold on Pakistan’s Northern Borderlands”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Aug, 2010.

  6. Albright, David, Peddling Peril: How the Secret Nuclear Trade Arms America’s Enemies, New York: Free Press, 2010, p. 48.

  1. A FRIENDSHIP FORGED BY WAR

  1. Gauhar, Altaf, Ayub Khan: Pakistan’s First Military Ruler, Lahore: Oxford University Press, 1993, p. 345.

  2. Rakesh Krishan Simha, “1971 War: How Russia Sank Nixon’s Gunboat Diplomacy”, Russia and India Report, 20 Dec. 2011, http://indrus.in/articles/2011/12/20/1971_war_how_russia_sank_nixons_gunboat_diplomacy_14041.html, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  3. Akhund, Iqbal, Memoirs of a Bystander: A Life in Diplomacy, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2000, p. 197.

  4. Bass, Gary J., The Blood Telegram: Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide, New York: Knopf, 2013, p. 290.

  5. Telegram reprinted in Hamoodur Rahman Commission, Supplementary Report, 23 Oct. 1974, p. 108, http://www.pppusa.org/Acrobat/Hamoodur%20Rahman%20Commission%20Report.pdf, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.

  6. Akhund, Iqbal, Memoirs of a Bystander: A Life in Diplomacy, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2000, p. 197.

  7. Bass, The Blood Telegram, p. 174.

  8. National Security Council note on the Anderson Papers, requested by Henry Kissinger, 6 Jan. 1972, http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB79/BEBB45.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  9. Kissinger, Henry, The White House Years, London: Phoenix Press, 1979, p. 907.

  10. Ibid.

  11. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XI, South Asia Crisis, 1971, Document 179, U.S. State Department Archive, Washington, DC, 4 Nov. 1971, http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969–76v11/d179, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  12. Bass, The Blood Telegram, p. 239.

  13. “Conversation Between President Nixon and his Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger)”, U.S. State Department Archive, Washington, DC, 6 Dec. 1971, Foreign Relations, 1969–1976, Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia, 1969–1972, http://2001–2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus/nixon/e7/48535.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  14. “Conversation Among President Nixon, the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger), and Attorney General Mitchell”, U.S. State Department Archive, Washington DC, 6 Dec. 1971, Foreign Relations, 1969–1976, Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia, 1969–1972, http://2001–2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus/nixon/e7/48537.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  15. Kux, Dennis, The United States and Pakistan 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies, Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Centre Press, 2001, p. 202.

  16. Kissinger, The White House Years, 1979, p. 910.

  17. Bass, The Blood Telegram, p. 254.

  18. Kissinger, The White House Years, p. 910.

  19. Ibid.

  20. Bass, The Blood Telegram, p. 308.

&nb
sp; 21. Akhund, Memoir of a Bystander, p. 200.

  22. Ibid. p. 202.

  23. Syed, Anwar Hussain, China & Pakistan: Diplomacy of an Entente Cordiale, London: Oxford University Press, 1974, p. 152.

  24. Khan, Sultan M., Memories & Reflections of a Pakistani Diplomat, Oxford: The Alden Press, 1998, p. 344.

  25. Ibid. p. 308.

  26. Ibid. p. 347.

  27. Pande, Aparna, Explaining Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Escaping India, New York: Routledge, 2011, p. 124.

  28. Syed, China & Pakistan, p. 151.

  29. Sisson, Richard and Leo E. Rose, War and Secession: Pakistan, India, and the Creation of Bangladesh, Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990, p. 252.