The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics

by Andrew Small

  63. Ganguly, Sumit, Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia: Crisis Behaviour and the Bomb, New York: Routledge, 2009, p. 124; Arthur Max, “Indian air-strikes in Kashmir to continue”, Associated Press, 30 May 1999, http:// news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1988&dat=19990530&id=nkYiAAAAIBAJ&sjid=pKwFAAAAIBAJ&pg=2444,2575222, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  64. Hasahn-Askari Rizvi, “The Lessons of Kargil as Learned by Pakistan”, in Peter Lavoy (ed.), Asymmetric Warfare, p. 344.

  65. Ritu Sarin, “India gave Kargil tapes to Sharif a week before release”, Indian Express, 25 Oct. 1999.

  66. Sukumar Muralidharan, “High Stakes, Hardening Positions”, Frontline, Vol. 16, Issue 13, 19 Jun.—2 Jul. 1999, http://www.hindu.com/fline/fl1613/16131250.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  67. Dixit, J.N., India-Pakistan in War and Peace, New York: Routledge, 2002, p. 66.

  68. “South Asia Tiger Hill—how important is it?”, BBC News, 4 Jul. 1999, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/385826.stm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  69. Judith Miller and James Risen, “United States is worried about an increased threat of nuclear conflict over Kashmir”, New York Times, 8 Aug. 2000, http://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/08/world/united-states-worried-about-increased-threat-nuclear-conflict-over-kashmir.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  70. Abdul Naeem, “Kargil: Lessons Learned on Both Sides”, in Ashley Tellis, C. Christine Fair and Jamison Jo Melby (eds), Limited Conflicts, p. 30.

  71. Abbas Rashid, “Raising the ante in Kashmir”, The News, 2 Jul. 1999.

  72. Ibid.

  73. Aziz, Sartaz, Between Dreams And Realities: Some Milestones in Pakistan’s History, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2010, p. 268.

  74. Bruce Riedel, “American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House”, in Peter Lavoy (ed.), Asymmetric Warfare, p. 134.

  75. Hasahn-Askari Rizvi, “The Lessons of Kargil as Learned by Pakistan”, in Peter Lavoy (ed.), Asymmetric Warfare, p. 344.

  76. Ibid. p. 137.

  77. Author interviews with European and US officials in Beijing and Washington, DC, Sep. 2010, and former Chinese officials in Beijing, Nov. 2012.

  78. Zhang Qiyue, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, quoted in “Respect LoC, says China”, The Tribune, 7 Jul. 1999, http://www.tribuneindia.com/1999/99jul07/world.htm#5, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  79. Bostrom, Nick and Milan M. Cirkovic, Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008, p. 392.

  80. Steven Coll, “The stand-off”, New Yorker, 13 Feb. 2006, http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/02/13/060213fa_fact_coll, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  81. Ibid.

  82. Nayak, Polly and Michael Krepon, U.S. Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peaks Crisis, Stimson Center Report, 2002, p. 21 and 26, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/USCrisisManagement.pdf, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  83. U.S. official quoted in Polly Nayak and Michael Krepon, U.S. Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peaks Crisis, Stimson Center Report, 2002, p. 21 and 26, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/USCrisisManagement.pdf, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  84. “Chinese special envoy calls on the Foreign Minister”, Foreign Ministry of Pakistan, Press Release, 29 Dec. 2008.

  85. Narayan Lakshman, “China blocked U.N. sanctions against terror group at Pakistan’s behest”, The Hindu, 7 Dec. 2010, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article936090.ece, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  86. Author interviews in Beijing, Sep. and Nov. 2010.

  87. Cited in Levy, Adrian, The Siege: Three Days of Terror Inside the Taj, Viking, loc. 2694 [IPAD 3rd Generation; MD366LL/A version].

  88. Bill Roggio, “UN declares Jamaat-ud-Dawa a terrorist front group”, Long War Journal, 11 Dec. 2008, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/12/un_declares_jamaatud.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  89. Jonathan S. Landay, “UN adds Pakistani militants to terrorist watch list”, Christian Science Monitor, 12 Dec. 2008, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2008/1212/p25s03-wosc.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  90. See for instance, Mohan Malik, “The China Factor in the India-Pakistan Conflict”, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2003, http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/03spring/malik.pdf, last accessed 26 Jan. 2013.

  91. Author interviews in Beijing, Feb. 2014.

  92. Sean Lucas, “China Enters the Nuclear Suppliers Group: Positive Steps in the Global Campaign against Nuclear Weapons Proliferation”, Nuclear Threat Initiative, 1 Nov. 2004, http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/china-enters-nuclear-suppliers-group/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  93. G. Balachandran, “India and NSG: Approaches to Indian Membership”, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 23 May 2013, http://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/IndiaandNSG_gbalachandran_230513, last accessed 27 Dec. 2013.

  94. Mark Hibbs, “The Future of the Nuclear Suppliers Group”, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011, p. 23, http:// carnegieendowment.org/files/future_nsg.pdf, last accessed 27 Dec. 2013.

  95. Mark Hibbs, “Pakistan Deal Signals China’s Growing Nuclear Assertiveness”, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 27 Apr. 2010, http://carnegieendowment.org/2010/04/27/pakistan-deal-signals-china-s-growing-nuclear-assertiveness/4su?reloadFlag=1,last accessed 27 Dec. 2013.

  96. Elisabeth Bumiller and Carlotta Gall, “Bush says Pakistan cannot expect nuclear deal like one with India”, New York Times, 4 May 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/04/international/asia/04cnd-pakistan.html?hp&ex=1141534800&en=fd6e253a355720de&ei=5094&partner=homepage, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  97. “Musharraf says to seek more nuclear power plants with Chinese help”, AAJ News, 10 Apr. 2008, http://www.aaj.tv/2008/04/musharraf-says-to-seek-more-nuclear-power-plants-with-chinese-help/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  98. K.J.M. Varma, “U.S. Lashes Pakistan-China Atomic Deal”, NTI, 21 Mar. 2011 http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/us-lashes-pakistan-china-atomic-deal/, last accessed 25 Jan. 2014.

  99. Chris Buckley, “China confirms two nuclear reactors for Pakistan”, Reuters, 21 Sep. 2010, http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/21/china-pakistan-nuclear-idAFTOE68K05X20100921, last accessed 27 Dec. 2013.

  100. Author interviews in Beijing, Jan. 2010.

  101. Chris Buckley, “China firms join controversial Pakistan nuclear push”, Reuters, 24 Jun. 2010, http://in.reuters.com/article/2010/06/24/china-pakistan-nuclear-idINTOE65N02E20100624, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  102. “Maßnahmen zur Stärkung der Non-Proliferation und nuklearen Exportkontrolle (Measures to Strengthen Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Export Control)”, German Federal Government Journal of Record, June, 2011.

  103. Author interviews in Beijing, Washington, DC and Brussels, Jun. 2012–Dec. 2012.

  104. Author interviews in Washington, DC, Oct. and Nov. 2010; Raja Mohan, “Don’t Blame it on China”, Indian Express, 17 Oct. 2013, http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/dont-blame-it-on-china/1183657/0, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  105. “China defends deal to build 1000 MW nuclear plant for Pakistan”, Economic Times, 25 Mar. 2013, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013–10–16/news/43107332_1_china-and-pakistan-chashma-chinese-foreign-ministry, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  106. Author interviews in Washington, DC, Oct. and Nov. 2010.

  107. Author interviews in Beijing, Sep. 2010 and Washington, DC, Nov. 2010. 108. Author interviews in Islamabad and Beijing, Jun. 2011.

  109. Author interviews in New Delhi, Mar. 2010; Lora Saalman, “Divergence Similarity and Symmetry in Sino-Indian Threat Perceptions”, Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer 2011, Vol. 64, No. 2, p. 173, http:// carnegieendowment.org/files/Divergence_Similarity_and_Symmetry_in_Sino-Indian_Threat_Perceptions.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  110. Nickles, David P. and Adam Howard (eds), Foreign Relations of the United States, 197
7–1980, Volume XIII, China, Office of the Historian, U.S. State Department, Bureau of Public Affairs, 2013, p. 1100.

  111. Sana Hashim, “India’s Concern Over China-Pakistan Nuclear Nexus”, New Delhi: Centre for Air Power Studies, Oct. 2013, http://capsindia.org/files/documents/CAPS_Infocus_SH2.pdf, last accessed 27 Dec. 2013; “Pakistan promised missile armed Chinese UAVs”, 5 Dec. 2012, available at, http://pakistanchinarelations.wordpress.com/2012/12/05/pakistan-promised-missile-armed-chinese-uavs/, last accessed 24 Jan. 2014.

  112. Selig S. Harrison, “China’s discreet hold on Pakistan’s northern borderlands”, International Herald Tribune, 26 Aug. 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/opinion/27iht-edharrison.html, last access 27 Jan. 2014.

  4. THE CHINESE WAR ON TERROR

  1. Author interview with Pakistani expert in Islamabad, Jun. 2011.

  2. Pope, Hugh, Sons of the Conquerors: The Rise of the Turkic World, London: Duckworth Publishers/Overlook Press, 2006, p. 166.

  3. “China to further strengthen ties with Pakistan”, The Nation, 6 Apr. 2010, http://www.nation.com.pk/politics/06-Apr-2010/China-to—further-strengthen-ties-with-Pakistan, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  4. Thomas Johnson and Chris Mason, “Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan”, Calhoun Institutions Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School, Winter 2007, Elsevier Limited, p. 73, http://hdl.handle.net/10945/30471, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  5. Rashid, Ahmed, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia, New Haven: Yale University Press, p. 201.

  6. Josy Joseph, “Harkat-ul-Mujahideen helped Osama bin Laden during Pak stay”, Times of India, 25 Jun. 2011, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011–06–25/india/29702395_1_hum-global-jihad-kashmiri-militant-group,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  7. “Maulana Fazlur Rehman arrives in Beijing”, Awaz, 5 Apr. 2010 http://www.awaztoday.com/News_Maulana-Fazlur-Rehman-arrives-in-Beijing_1_4933_Political-News.aspx, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  8. Syed Saleem Shahzad, “Taliban’s call for jihad answered in Pakistan”, Asia Times, 16 Jun. 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HF16Df01.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  9. “Jamaat-e-Islami, Chinese Communist Party ink MoU”, The News, 17 Feb. 2009, http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=163116&Cat=6&dt=2/16/2009, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  10. Zulfiqar Ali, “Pakistan’s Jamaat-i-Islami to preach Islam in China”, Dawn, 4 Apr. 2009, http://www.dawn.com/news/937790/pakistan-s-jamaat-i-islami-to-preach-islam-in-china, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  11. Ibid.

  12. Yitzhak Shichor, “Great Wall of Steel: Military and Strategy in Xinjiang”, in S. Frederick Starr (ed.), Xinjiang: China’s Muslim Borderland, London: M.E. Sharpe, 2004, p. 145.

  13. “Two Uighurs handed 10 years for UAE bomb plot”, Reuters, 1 Jul. 2010, http://www.arabnews.com/node/349165, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  14. Raffaello Pantucci, “Uyghurs Convicted in East Turkestan Islamic Movement”, Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 8, Issue 29, 22 Jul. 2010, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36656#.UucOojo1hMs, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  15. Hassan Hassan, “Revealed: the plot to blow up DragonMart”, The National, 9 Jul. 2010, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/courts/revealed-the-plot-to-blow-up-dragonmart, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  16. Raffaello Pantucci, “Uyghurs Convicted in East Turkestan Islamic Movement”, Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 8, Issue 29, 22 Jul. 2010, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36656#.UucOojo1hMs, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  17. Hassan Hassan, “Uighur terrorists jailed for DragonMart bomb plot”, The National, 1 Jul. 2010, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/courts/uighur-terrorists-jailed-for-dragonmart-bomb-plot, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  18. Hassan Hassan, “Revealed: the plot to blow up DragonMart”, 9 Jul. 2010, The National, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/courts/revealed-the-plot-to-blow-up-dragonmart, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  19. Hassan Hassan, “Uighur terrorists jailed for DragonMart bomb plot”, The National, 1 Jul. 2010, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/courts/uighur-terrorists-jailed-for-dragonmart-bomb-plot, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  20. Lattimore, Owen, Inner Asian Frontiers of China, New York: American Geographical Society, 1940, p. 171.

  21. James A. Millward and Peter Perdue, “Political Histories and Strategies of Control”, in Starr (ed.), Xinjiang, pp. 77–85.

  22. Dillon, Michael, Xinjiang: China’s Muslim Far Northwest, London: Routledge, 2009, p. 77.

  23. For a detailed analysis of how Xinjiang was affected by the Cultural Revolution, see Millward and Perdue, pp. 94–8.

  24. James A. Millward, “Violent Separatism in Xinjiang: A Critical Assessment”, East-West Center, Policy Studies 6, 2005, p. 7, http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/PS006.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  25. Rémi Castets, “The Uyghurs in Xinjiang—The Malaise Grows”, China Perspectives, Issue 49, Sep.-Oct. 2003, http://chinaperspectives.revues.org/648#tocto1n6, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  26. Dru C. Gladney, “The Chinese Program of Development and Control, 1978–2001”, in Starr (ed.), Xinjiang, p. 109.

  27. Ziad Haider, “Sino-Pakistan Relations and Xingiang’s Uighurs”, Asian Survey, Vol. XLV, 4, University of California Press, July/August 2005, p. 525, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/XINJIANG.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  28. Ibid.; see also: Alessandro Rippa, “From Uyghurs to Kashgari”, The Diplomat, Dec. 20 2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/from-uyghurs-to-kashgari/ last accessed 13 Feb. 2014.

  29. Yitzhak Shichor, “Great Wall of Steel: Military and Strategy in Xinjiang”, in Starr (ed.), Xinjiang, p. 144; Ziad Haider, “Sino-Pakistan Relations and Xingiang’s Uighurs”, Asian Survey, Vol. XLV, 4, University of California Press, July/August 2005, p. 525, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/XINJIANG.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Rippa, “From Uyghurs to Kashgari”.

  30. Millward, “Violent Separatism”, p. 9.

  31. Fravel, M. Taylor, Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2008, p. 155.

  32. See (on new transport links) John W. Garver, “China’s Influence in Central and South Asia: Is it Increasing?” in David Shambaugh (ed.), Power Shift: China and East Asia’s New Dynamics, Los Angeles: University of California Press, p. 215.

  33. Matthew Oresman, “Repaving the Silk Road: China’s Emergence in Central Asia”, in Joshua Eisenmann, Eric Heginbotham and Derek Mitchell (eds), China and the Developing World: Beijing’s Strategy for the Twenty-First Century, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2007, p. 77.

  34. Elizabeth Van Wie Davis, “Uyghur Muslim Ethnic Separatism in Xinjiang”, China Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, January 2008, p. 4, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA493744, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  35. Leavitt, Sandra Ruth, “Persuasion, Coercion, and Neglect: Understanding State Policy and the Mobilization of Muslim Minorities in Asia”, PhD Dissertation, Georgetown University, 2008, p. 134.

  36. Starr (ed.), Xinjiang, p. 15.

  37. Reed, J. Todd and Diana Raschke, The ETIM: China’s Islamic Militants and the Global Terrorist Threat, Washington, DC: Library of Congress, 2010, p. 77.

  38. Brent Hierman, “The Pacification of Xinjiang: Uighur Protest and the Chinese State, 1988–2002”, Problems of Post-Communism, May/June 2007, http://www.academia.edu/329476/The_Pacification_of_Xinjiang_Uighur_Protest_and_the_Chinese_State_1988–2002, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  39. Julie R. Sirrs, Sirrs, J., The Taliban’s Foreign Fighters: A Report Prepared for the Committee for a Free Afghanistan, Washington: Committee for a Free Afghanistan, 21 January 2001, pp. 1–8.

  40. Ibid.

  41. Daniel Klaidman, Kill or Capture: The War on Terror and the Soul of the Obama Presidency, Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2012, p. 98
.

  42. See, for instance, “The terrorist nature of ‘east Turkestan’ separatists”, China Daily, 23 Jul. 2009, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009–07/23/content_8466072.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; “China cites East Turkistan Islamic Movement terrorist threat”, Global Times, 1 Nov. 2013, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/821971.shtml#.Uuozxz1dV2o, last accessed 30 Jan. 2014; or “World Uyghur Congress behind Xinjiang violence: expert”, China Daily, 7 Jul. 2009, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009–07/07/content_8389647.htm, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  43. Dillon, Xinjiang, p. 58.

  44. James A. Millward and Nabijan Tursun, “Political History and Strategies of Control, 1884–1978”, in Starr (ed.), Xinjiang, p. 97.

  45. Ibid.

  46. Castets, “The Uyghurs”.

  47. See, for instance, Justin Rudelson and William Jankowiak, “Acculturation and Resistance: Xinjiang Identities in Flux”, in Starr (ed.), Xinjiang, pp. 316–17; Millward, “Violent Separatism”, p. 28; Acharya, Arabinda, Rohan Gunaratna and Wang Pengxin, Ethnic Identity and National Conflict in China, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010, p. 49; Bovingdon, Gardner, The Uyghurs: Strangers in Their Own Land, New York: Columbia University Press, 2010, pp. 60, 66, 123–5; Dillon, Xinjiang, pp. 63–5; and, for good measure, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baren_Township_riot

  48. Castets, “The Uyghurs “.

  49. Millward, “Violent Separatism”, p. 12.

  50. Bovingdon, The Uyghurs, p. 124.

  51. Millward, “Violent Separatism”, p. 28.

  52. Castets, “The Uyghurs”.

  53. “’East Turkistan’ Terrorist Forces Cannot Get Away With Impunity”, PRC State Council Information Office, 21 Jan. 2002, http://www.china.org.cn/english/2002/Jan/25582.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  54. Reed, J. Todd and Diana Raschke, The ETIM: China’s Islamic Militants and the Global Terrorist Threat, Washington, DC: Library of Congress, 2010, p. 39.

  55. Ibid. p. 38.

  56. Author interviews in Peshawar, June 2013.

  57. Reed and Raschke, The ETIM, p. 48.