The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics

by Andrew Small

  172. Author interviews in Beijing, Feb. 2010.

  173. Author interviews in Kabul, Feb. 2012.

  174. “Chinese Firm Re-Thinks Afghan Mining Contract After Difficulties Of The Aynak Copper Mine Project”, U.S. State Department Cable, 10 Dec. 2009, http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=09BEIJING3295,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  175. Jessica Donati and Mirwais Harooni, “Chinese halt at flagship mine imperils Afghan future”, Reuters, 27 Sep. 2012, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/uk-afghanistan-aynak-idUKBRE88Q0XL20120927, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  176. Author interviews in Kabul, Aug. 2010.

  177. “MCC reports $1.16b losses in 2012”, China Daily, 31 Jan. 2013, http:// usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013–01/31/content_16192147.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  178. Donati and Harooni, “Chinese halt”.

  179. Erica S. Downs, “China Buys into Afghanistan”, SAIS Review, Vol. XXXII. No. 2, Summer-Fall 2012, p. 65; “China gets approval for Afghanistan oil exploration bid”, BBC News, 27 Dec. 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16336453, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  180. Matthew Rosenberg, “U.S. cuts off Afghan firm”, Wall Street Journal, 8 Dec, 2010, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704447604576007653943186130, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  181. “Warlord, Inc. Extortion and Corruption Along the U.S. Supply Chain in Afghanistan, Report of the Majority Staff, U.S. House of Representatives”, Jun. 2010.

  182. Aram Roston, “How the US army protects its trucks—by paying the Taliban”, Guardian, 13 Nov. 2009, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/nov/13/us-trucks-security-taliban, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  183. “Popal, Ahmad Rateb Ratib”, Afghan Bios, Record 1985 of 2857, http://www.afghan-bios.info/index.php?option=com_afghanbios&id=60&task=view&total=2854&start=1984&Itemid=2, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  184. Ibid.

  185. Letter from Dana Rohrabacher, Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, to Leon E. Panetta, Secretary of Defense, 31 Oct. 2012, Washington, DC, http://rohrabacher.house.gov/sites/rohrabacher.house.gov/files/documents/rep._rohrabacher_to_secretary_panetta_oct._31.pdf,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  186. Dexter Filkins, “Convoy guards in Afghanistan face an inquiry”, New York Times, 6 Jun. 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/world/asia/07convoys.html?pagewanted=all, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  187. Author interviews, Kabul, Aug. 2010.

  188. Simon Clark, “Karzai’s Afghanistan, poisoned by heroin habit, seeks investors”, Bloomberg, 21 Mar. 2005, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azmMmdBu2edg, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  189. Hamid Shalizi, “China’s CNPC begins oil production in Afghanistan”, Reuters, 21 Oct. 2012, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/21/ukafghanistan-oil-idUKBRE89K07Y20121021, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  190. Alexandros Petersen, “Afghanistan Has What China Wants”, Foreign Policy, 18 Apr. 2013, http://southasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/04/18/afghanistan_has_what_china_wants, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  191. Sayed Salahuddin, “Why can’t Afghanistan tackle corruption?”, Reuters, 8 Sep. 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/08/us-afghanistancorruption-analysis-idUSTRE6871KP20100908, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  192. Hamid Shalizi, “Afghans say former warlord meddling in China oil deal”, Reuters, 11 Jun. 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/11/us-afghanistan-dostum-idUSBRE85A15W20120611, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  193. “Gen Dostum accused of ‘undermining national interest’”, TOLO News, 10 Jun. 2012, http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/6525-gen-dos-tum-accused-of-undermining-national-interest, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  194. “China is a trust-worthy friend: Gen Dostum”, Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 14 Jun. 2012, http://outlookafghanistan.net/national_detail.php?post_id=4590, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  195. Jessica Donati, “Missing refinery deal halts landmark China-Afghan oil project”, Reuters, 18 Aug. 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/18/afghanistan-china-idUSL4N0GJ05G20130818, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  196. Jessica Donati, “From New York heroin dealer to Afghanistan’s biggest oil man”, Reuters, 7 Jul. 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/07/afghanistan-energy-idUSL4N0OS1R620140707, last accessed 7 Jul. 2014.

  197. “1.5 billion barrels of oil, and no takers”, Wall Street Cheat Sheet, 29 Sep. 2013, http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/1–5-billion-barrels-of-oil-and-no-takers.html/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Jessica Donati, “Small firms seek to move in on Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth”, Reuters, 22 Sep. 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/22/us-afghanistan-mines-idUSBRE98L08G20130922, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  198. Maeva Bambuk, “Chinese investor suspends contract with Afghan gov’t”, CCTV, 23 Sep. 2013, http://english.cntv.cn/program/asiatoday/20130923/105249.shtml, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  199. Jessica Donati, “Indian firms seek to renegotiate $10.8 billion Afghan iron ore deal: Kabul official”, Reuters, 29 Oct. 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/29/us-afghanistan-mines-idUSBRE99S08J20131029,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  200. Javed Noorani, Integrity Watch Afghanistan, quoted in Jessica Donati, “Landmark Chinese copper deal with Afghanistan at risk”, Reuters, 27 Aug. 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/27/afghanistanmines-idUSL6N0GS1ZB20130827, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  201. Author interviews in Washington, Brussels and Beijing, 2008–2012.

  202. Jonathon Burch and Myra Macdonald, “China takes higher-profile role in Afghan diplomacy-diplomats”, Reuters, 3 Nov. 2011, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/idINIndia-60281020111102, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  203. Author interviews in Washington, Jan. 2012.

  204. Quoted on the condition of anonymity in Jonathon Burch and Myra Macdonald, “China takes higher-profile role in Afghan diplomacy-diplomats”, Reuters, 3 Nov. 2011, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/idINIndia-60281020111102, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  205. Ibid.

  206. “China, Afghanistan, Pakistan agree to enhance cooperation”, Xinhua, 12 Oct. 2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013–12/10/c_132957176.htm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Ananth Krishnan, “China, Russia, Pak. Discuss Afghanistan situation”, The Hindu, 4 Apr. 2013, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-russia-pak-discussafghanistan-situation/article4577718.ece, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  207. Ananth Krishnan, “India, China, Russia hold talks on Afghan issue”, The Hindu, 17 Jan. 2014, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/world/india-china-russia-hold-talks-on-afghan-issue/article5583356.ece,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Harsh V. Pant, “China reaches to India on Afghanistan”, Observer Research Foundation, 8 Jan. 2014, http://orfon-line.org/cms/sites/orfonline/modules/analysis/AnalysisDetail.html?cmaid=61496&mmacmaid=61497, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  208. Author interviews in Beijing and Washington, DC, 2012–13.

  209. “Top Chinese official makers landmark Afghan visit”, Agence France Presse, 23 Sep. 2012, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iHVQRfyXMpcjXEGKPgiwiYkq1tVA?docId=CNG.3af9f6348c0359a862a5d1618b77fb24.2e1, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Andrew Small, “China’s Afghan Moment”, Foreign Policy, 3 Oct. 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/03/chinas_afghan_moment, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  210. Author interviews in Beijing, Feb. 2014.

  211. Author interviews in Beijing, Oct. 2012.

  7. LORD, MAKE THEM LEAVE—BUT NOT YET

  1. Deng Xiaoping quoted in David P. Nickles, Adam Howard and Office of the Historian, U.S. State Department, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume XIII, China, Washington, DC: Bureau of Public Affairs, 2013, p. 1060, http://static.history.state.gov/frus/frus1977–80v13/pdf/frus1977–80v13.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  2. Aubrey Carlson, “SRAP Holbrooke’s April 15 dinner with Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi”, U.S. State Department Cable, 20 Apr. 2009, htt
ps://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BEIJING1046_a.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  3. Stockholm China Forum, Shanghai, Feb. 2014.

  4. Karachi Islam report quoted in Bill Roggio, “Al Qaeda Appoints New Leader of Forces in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas”, Long War Journal, 9 May 2011, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/05/al_qaeda_appoints_ne_2.php,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  5. Bill Roggio, “Turkistan Islamic Party Leader Thought Killed in US Drone Strike”, Long War Journal, 25 Aug. 2012, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/08/turkistan_islamic_pa_1.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  6. Edward Wong, “Warning of attacks on Olympics is said to be linked to Muslim separatist group”, New York Times, 9 Aug. 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/10/sports/olympics/10uighurs.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; “A Post-Mortem Analysis of Turkistani Amir Emeti Yakuf: A Death that Sparked More Questions than Answers”, Jamestown Foundation Militant Leadership Monitor, Vol. 3, Issue 10, 31 Oct. 2012, http://mlm.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=40043&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=551&cHash=e13aadc198482b3c8c34129c423af1f6#.Uu78fnddXgU, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  7. Edward Wong, “Chinese separatists tied to Norway bomb plot”, New York Times, 9 Jul. 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/10/world/asia/10uighur.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  8. “China identifies 8 alleged “East Turkistan” terrorists”, Xinhua, 21 Oct. 2008

  9. Bill Roggio, “Chinese Terrorist Leader Abdul Haq al Turkistani is Dead: Pakistani Interior Minister”, Long War Journal, 7 May 2010, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/chinese_terrorist_le.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  10. Ibid.

  11. Bill Roggio, “6 Uzbeks Killed in North Waziristan Drone Strike”, Long War Journal, 29 Jul. 2012, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/07/six_uzbeks_killed_in.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  12. Bill Roggio, “Zawahiri Eulogizes Abu Yahya al Libi”, Long War Journal, 11 Sep. 2012, http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/09/zawahiri_eulogizes_abu_yahya_a.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  13. Bill Roggio, “U.S. Airstrike Killed 15 Turkistan Islamic Party Fighters in Afghanistan”, Long War Journal, 23 Jan. 2010, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/01/us_airstrike_killed_1.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  14. “Pakistan kills Uighur independence fighter”, Al Jazeera, 23 Dec. 2003, http://www.aljazeera.com/archive/2003/12/200849145930813927.html,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  15. Bill Roggio, “US Drones Kill 4 Turkistan Islamic Party Fighters in Pakistan Strike”, Long War Journal, 31 Aug. 2013, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/08/us_drones_kill_4_tur.php, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  16. Ibid.

  17. Takir Khan, “North Waziristan: Gul Bahadur’s aide killed in clash with rivals”, Express Tribune, 22 Aug. 2011, http://tribune.com.pk/story/236757/north-waziristan-gul-bahadurs-aide-killed-in-clash-with-rivals/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  18. Charlie Szrom, “The Survivalist of North Waziristan: Hafiz Gul Bahadur Biography and Analysis”, Critical Threats, 6 Aug. 2009, http://www.criticalthreats.org/pakistan/survivalist-north-waziristan-hafiz-gul-bahadur-biography-and-analysis, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  19. Pakistani official quoted on condition of anonymity in Faran Bokhari, “Death of a militant a victory for China?”, CBS News, 1 Mar. 2010, http:// www.cbsnews.com/news/death-of-militant-a-victory-for-china/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  20. Zhao Huasheng, “China and Afghanistan: China’s Interests, Stances and Perspectives”, Washington, DC: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Mar. 2012, p. 4, http://csis.org/files/publication/120322_Zhao_ChinaAfghan_web.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  21. Author interviews in Washington, DC, Feb. 2013.

  22. Nickles, Howard and Office of the Historian, U.S. State Department, Foreign Relations, p. 446.

  23. Kux, Dennis, The United States and Pakistan 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies, Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Centre Press, 2001, p. 308–10.

  24. Suettinger, Robert L., Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations 1989–2000, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2003, p. 67.

  25. Tyler, Patrick, A Great Wall: Six Presidents and China: An Investigative History, New York: A Century Foundation Book, 1999, p. 399; Kux, The United States and Pakistan, pp. 308–33.

  26. Douglas Paal, “China and the East Asian Security Environment: Complementarity and Competition”, in Vogel, Ezra, Living with China: U.S./China Relations in the Twenty First Century, New York: W.W. Norton, 1997, p. 113; Mohan Malik, “The China Factor in the India-Pakistan Conflict”, Parameters, Spring 2003, p. 62.

  27. Suettinger, Beyond Tiananmen, pp. 139–41.

  28. Author interviews in Washington, DC, Nov. 2008.

  29. Polly Nayak and Michael Krepon, “US Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peaks Crisis”, Stimson Center, pp. 27–8, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/USCrisisManagementFull.pdf, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  30. Jane Perlez, “Rebuffed by China, Pakistan may seek I.M.F. aid”, New York Times, 18 Oct. 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/world/asia/19zardari.html, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.

  31. Swaine, Michael D., America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011, p. 133.

  32. Author interview in Washington, DC, Dec. 2011.

  33. Jonathan S. Landay, “Insurgencies spread in Afghanistan and Pakistan”, McClatchy Newspapers, 3 Feb. 2008, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2008/02/03/26133/insurgencies-spread-in-afghanistan.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Sanger, David E., The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power, London: Bantam Press, 2009, pp. 232–42.

  34. “Pakistan facing financial crisis”, Al Jazeera, 30 Sep. 2008, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2008/09/200892885733125929.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; “Pakistan under martial law”, CNN, 4 Nov. 2007, http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/03/pakistan.emergency/, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; James Traub, “The lawyers’ crusade”, New York Times, 1 Jun. 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/01/magazine/01PAKISTAN-t.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  35. Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, “Afghan strikes by Taliban get Pakistan help, U.S. aides say”, New York Times, 26 Mar. 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/world/asia/26tribal.html?gwh=1851E9AE244BBF6B4F942C533DF96188&gwt=pay, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  36. Foon Rhee, “Obama: Afghanistan, not Iraq, should be focus”, Boston Globe, 15 Jul. 2008, http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/07/obama_afghanist.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  37. Elizabeth Williamson and Peter Spiegel, “Obama says Afghan war ‘of necessity’”, Wall Street Journal, 17 Aug. 2009, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB125054391631638123, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  38. Author interviews in Beijing, Nov. 2008.

  39. Barnett Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, “From Great Game to Grand Bargain”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64604/barnett-r-rubin-and-ahmed-rashid/from-great-game-to-grand-bargain, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  40. Dune Lawrence, “U.S., China military talks deepen on Pakistan, Sedney says”, Bloomberg, 28 Feb. 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4B6GAO4lgUE, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014; author interviews, Washington, DC, Dec. 2008, February 2009.

  41. Author interviews in Beijing, Jun. 2009.

  42. Author interviews in Washington, DC, Mar.-Dec. 2009.

  43. Author interviews in Beijing, Jun. 2009.

  44. Ibid.

  45. Craig Whitlock, “China rebuffed U.S. request to open route for Afghanistan war supplies, cables ahow”, Washington Post, 2 Jul. 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/china-rebuffed-us-request-toopen-route-for-afghanistan-war-supplies-cables-show/2011/06/30/AG8cdYvH_story.html, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  46.
Ivan Watson, “Taliban claims victory near Islamabad”, CNN, 22 Apr. 2009, http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/22/pakistan.taliban/, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  47. Zahid Hussain, “Taliban move closer to Islamabad”, Wall Street Journal, 23 Apr. 2009, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124041153700943789, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  48. Author interviews in Beijing, Jun. 2009.

  49. Author interviews in Washington, DC, Feb. 2010.

  50. David E. Sanger, “Pakistan strife raises U.S. doubt on nuclear arms”, New York Times, 3 May. 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/world/asia/04nuke.html, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  51. Author interviews in Beijing, Dec. 2011.

  52. For discussion on contingencies in China’s neighbourhood, see Paul Stares, “Managing Instability on China’s Periphery”, Council on Foreign Relations, 16 Sep. 2011, p. 41, http://www.cfr.org/thinktank/cpa/asia_security.html,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; Daniel Markey, “Pakistan Contingencies”, Council on Foreign Relations, May 2011, pp. 41–59.

  53. Interviews in Beijing and Washington, 2008–10.

  54. Bruce W. Bennett, “Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse”, Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 2013, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR300/RR331/RAND_RR331.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.

  55. Drew Thompson, “Border Burdens: China’s Response to the Myanmar Refugee Crisis”, Centre for the National Interest, 2009, http://cftni.org/Thompson-Border-Burdens-China-Security-2009.pdf, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  56. Stephen Chen, “Ministerial edict warns of nuclear emergencies”, South China Morning Post, 21 Oct. 2009, http://www.scmp.com/article/696025/ministerial-edict-warns-nuclear-emergencies, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.

  57. Author interviews in Beijing, Mar. 2009 and Sep. 2009.

  58. Narayan Lakshman, “China blocked U.N. sanctions against terror group at Pakistan’s behest”, The Hindu, 7 Dec. 2010, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article936090.ece, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.

  59. Ahmed Rashid, “Beware Pakistan’s small nuclear weapons”, Financial Times, 22 Oct. 2013, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/10/22/beware-pakistans-small-nuclear-weapons/#axzz2reL95KAj, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014; Sanger, The Inheritance, p. 179.