It is not clear why Latinos increasingly identify with pan-ethnic descriptors, but scholars have offered a variety of explanations. Pan-ethnic identity may emerge in contexts where population diversity and political cooperation would give pan-ethnic groups political power unavailable to individual national-origin groups.25 Similarly, such an identity may have been created by politicians seeking to empower Latinos through coalition and running roughshod over important community, cultural, and social distinctions in the process.26 Or it may be that a pan-ethnic identity develops as the cultural and media establishment, as mentioned earlier, increasingly addresses Latinos as a somewhat undifferentiated whole. Whatever the case, we can now say with confidence that Latinos are a group: they see themselves as such, and they use a shared identity to act politically.
And when they act politically, they act progressively. Latinos prefer more government engagement in solving society’s challenges, not less. Despite their embrace of values based in self-reliance, they see a critical and decisive role for government in the lives of individuals. The result is a supermajority that votes Democrat, with a political effect that is likely to grow as the Latino share of the electorate continues to rise rapidly. If the recent past is prologue, and if there is no substantial change in their current preferences and opinions, this increasingly unified and empowered population has the potential, almost by itself, to realign American politics.
*Portions of this chapter appeared in earlier form in Gary M. Segura, “Latino Public Opinion and Realigning the American Electorate,” Daedalus 141, no. 4 (Fall 2012): 98–113.
Chapter 3
RONALD REAGAN WAS WRONG: LATINO IDEOLOGY AND BELIEFS ABOUT GOVERNMENT
For most of the last thirty years, Latinos have given a preponderance of their votes to Democrats at both the state and national levels, with the exception of South Florida Cubans.* The Democratic ticket has taken between 65% and 70% of the two-party vote in national elections since the 1980s, with the notable exception of 2004, when George W. Bush secured approximately 40% of the Latino vote in his quest for reelection.1 For some time, GOP strategists have expressed frustration with this state of affairs, largely—so the story goes—because they believe that a churchgoing and entrepreneurial group should naturally be Republican. Ronald Reagan best expressed this sentiment when he reportedly told GOP Latino pollster Lionel Sosa, “Hispanics are Republicans, they just don’t know it yet.”
Was Reagan right? And if so, what evidence is there? The answer is: somewhere between little and none. Latinos are significantly to the left of non-Hispanic whites on virtually every issue of public policy. This is hardly surprising when the issue is minority- or race-specific, such as immigration or affirmative action. Latinos are significantly more pro-immigrant, more supportive of affirmative action, and less enthusiastic about the death penalty than non-Hispanic whites. As Donald Kinder and Nicholas Winter first noted, this liberalism extends to redistributive policy.2 And as one of us reports, Latinos can lean systematically liberal even on issues with no implicitly racial content.3 Figure 3.1 illustrates that Latinos are also more liberal than their non-Hispanic white fellow citizens when it comes to government guarantees on standards of living, education, and the environment. Even on matters of relative consensus, such as education, the difference between groups is meaningful.
FIGURE 3.1Selected Policy Liberalism of Latinos and Non-Hispanic Whites, 2008
The bars in the figure represent the total share of respondents holding “liberal,” or left of midpoint, views on each issue. Source: Figure created by the authors using data from the American National Election Study (ANES), 2008, for guaranteed jobs and increased educational and environmental spending; and the General Social Survey (GSS), 2008, for improving the lives of the poor and reducing inequality.
FIGURE 3.2Views Regarding Whether Minorities Should Be Self-Reliant
Respondents answered the following question: “If racial and ethnic minorities don’t do well in life, they have no one to blame but themselves. Do you . . . strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?” Source: Figure created by the authors using data from the National Politics Study, 2004.
But policy preferences are not the same as an overall approach to government. The fact that Latinos are more liberal than whites on specific issues does not necessarily mean that they are philosophically pro-government. The high levels of entrepreneurial activity among Latinos and a stereotypic perception of their strong work ethic have encouraged conservatives to argue on behalf of Latinos’ “natural,” albeit unrealized, Republicanism. Indeed, significant evidence suggests that, consistent with conservatives’ claims, Latinos embrace the core individualist norm of self-reliance.
Figure 3.2 shows an across-group comparison on a key indicator of self-reliance: specifically, respondents were asked: “If racial and ethnic minorities don’t do well in life, they have no one to blame but themselves. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?” Latinos held the most “conservative” position on this question of any major racial or ethnic group. A significantly higher percentage of Latinos—higher than among non-Hispanic whites—somewhat agreed or strongly agreed with the statement. Certainly, Latino citizens’ enthusiasm for a norm of self-reliance casts some doubt on their underlying liberalism.
Adherence to norms of self-reliance is generally associated with more conservative views on the role of government, including a preference for limited government. If Latinos share this preference, that would seem to undermine the claim of Latino liberalism. However, the evidence does not support this supposition. In fact, though a significant majority of Latinos express support for self-reliance, supermajorities of Latinos also reliably embrace a greater role for government. Latino Americans evidently see no contradiction in the two views.
In the 2012 American National Election Study (ANES), citizens were asked three questions designed to capture their core feelings about the role of government, distinct from any particular policy area. Figure 3.3 reports on their responses to the question: “Which of two statements comes closer to your own opinion: ONE, the less government, the better; or TWO, there are more things that government should be doing?” This question juxtaposed the core contention of movement conservatism—that government is better when it is smaller—with a desire for government to do more, not less. Given this stark choice, the responses were revelatory. Among all Americans the answers were evenly divided, and almost 60% of non-Hispanic whites chose the “less government” approach. But more than 71% of Latino respondents said that they would like government to do more, a more than thirty-point difference compared with non-Hispanic whites. (African Americans were even more liberal.)
The second question asked in the 2012 ANES to try to get at respondents’ core feelings about government was this: “Which of two statements comes closer to your own opinion: ONE, the main reason government has become bigger over the years is because it has gotten involved in things that people should do for themselves; or TWO, government has become bigger because the problems we face have become bigger?” Like the first question, this question offered a choice between quite different attitudes toward the growth of government, thereby tapping a core element of ideology. And once again, Latinos were significantly more liberal than non-Hispanic whites, more than half of whom believed that government has become involved in matters of personal responsibility. By contrast, almost two-thirds of Latinos believed that government growth has been justified by the scope or size of the problems they expect it to address—twice the share who thought that government has expanded where it should not have.
FIGURE 3.3Views on Government Action to Solve Problems, by Race and Ethnicity
Respondents answered the question: “Which of two statements comes closer to your own opinion: ONE, the less government, the better; or TWO, there are more things that government should be doing?” Source: Figure created by the authors using data from the American National Election
Study, 2012.
Finally, ANES respondents were asked a question aimed at discerning their enthusiasm for the free market, the most frequently identified alternative to government action: “Which of two statements comes closer to your own opinion: ONE, we need a strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems; or TWO, the free market can handle these problems without government being involved?” The choice offered again captured ideology in terms that resonated with the public debate. And once again, Latinos were significantly to the left of non-Hispanic whites. Just over 21% of Latinos saw the free market as the preferred instrument of social change, whereas almost twice that percentage of non-Hispanic whites preferred to leave problems to the free market. Almost 80% of Latino respondents in the ANES saw the need for a strong government to solve problems. And it is worth noting that even among whites the free market lost out to government action by over twenty percentage points.
FIGURE 3.4Attitudes toward Government Growth, by Race and Ethnicity
Respondents answered the question: “Which of two statements comes closer to your own opinion: ONE, the main reason government has become bigger over the years is because it has gotten involved in things that people should do for themselves; or TWO, government has become bigger because the problems we face have become bigger?” Source: Figure created by the authors using data from the American National Election Study, 2012.
FIGURE 3.5Preference for Free Market vs. Government Solutions, by Race and Ethnicity
Respondents answered the question: “Which of two statements comes closer to your own opinion: ONE, we need a strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems; or TWO, the free market can handle these problems without government being involved?” Source: Figure created by the authors using data from the American National Election Study, 2012.
Overall, among Latino citizens, there is general enthusiasm for an active, growing, and problem-solving government and little enthusiasm for the alternative as described by the right: a shrinkage of government and reliance on the free market. Despite their embrace of a norm of self-reliance—a clear belief that individuals are for the most part responsible for their own outcomes—Latinos’ underlying ideology appears to be solidly progressive. This finding is directly reflected in their policy preferences, which are uniformly to the left of views held by non-Hispanic whites.
ECONOMIC OPINION: PREDOMINANTLY WORKING-CLASS LATINOS ARE NOT FREE-MARKETEERS
Latinos, like most Americans, worry about money. And economic opportunity and mobility have been problematic for them. Latino median income is significantly below the national average and below that of non-Hispanic whites. The 2010 Current Population Survey (CPS) shows that Hispanic household family income was just below $31,000, while the comparable figure for non-Hispanic whites was above $42,000.4 Such income differences have substantial impacts on quality of life. For instance, Hispanics are less likely to reside in homes they own. In 2010 (according to the American Community Survey), 77.9% of non-Hispanic whites lived in homes that they or their family owned. Only 58.1% of Latinos owned rather than rented their home.
Likewise, Hispanic educational attainment is significantly below the national average and below that of non-Hispanic whites. Using the 2010 CPS, only 15.7% of Hispanic adult citizens had a college degree or greater, compared with 31% of non-Hispanic whites. Foreign-born Latinos are significantly disadvantaged here since free, compulsory education did not extend after eighth grade in Mexico until very recently. Not surprisingly, then, many Mexican immigrants to the United States have lower-than-average levels of formal education.
As a consequence, the Latino population expresses considerable concern about making ends meet, and their concerns are reflected in their opinions on what government ought to be doing. For example, an extensive study on housing undertaken by Latino Decisions in April 2011 showed that the housing crisis—which was the principal factor underpinning the great recession of 2008—was acutely felt by Latinos. By some estimates, Latinos were 70% more likely than other Americans to have received subprime mortgage loans, and 71% more likely than white mortgage holders to have faced foreclosure.5 The result has been devastating. By some estimates, Latinos lost as much as 66% of their net wealth in the 2008 crisis.6 The comparable number for non-Hispanic whites was 13%.
Mortgages and rent represent a significant strain on Latino resources (see Figure 3.6). Over half of Latino registered voters reported having spent down all their savings, more than a third reported being late with other bills, and nearly one in five had to move to a cheaper place to live. It should not be surprising, then, when this level of financial strain results in considerable enthusiasm for government action. When asked about specific policy responses, Latinos were supportive of mortgage relief for those who had lost their job (75%) and direct mortgage reductions, rather than foreclosure, for those who couldn’t pay their existing obligation (79%). There was also strong support for reforming the practices they thought might have been hurting Latinos, such as requiring banks to provide documents in English and Spanish if the customer needs it (87%) and providing greater tax incentives for home buyers (83%). These actions and proposed reforms, it is fair to say, did not enjoy conservative support during this last housing crisis.
FIGURE 3.6Latino Economic Stress and Costs of Housing, April 2011
Source: Latino Decisions–ImpreMedia poll of Latino registered voters, April 2011 (N = 500; +/-4.3).
In November 2011, just as the GOP primaries were about to get under way, we asked all voters, Latinos and other Americans, who they blamed for the economic troubles in the country and who they trusted to solve them. As shown in Figure 3.7, former President George W. Bush, rather than President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress, took the lion’s share of the blame for economic performance among the general electorate (50%), and particularly among the Latino electorate (67%). These numbers track the 2008 general election results very closely.
FIGURE 3.7Registered Voters’ Attribution of Blame for US Economic Problems, November 2011
When we looked to the future, in anticipation of the 2012 race, the news was less sunny for Obama and the Democrats (see Figure 3.8). Among all voters, a slight plurality (43%) trusted the GOP more than Obama and the Democrats (42%), though these results were inside the margin of error. Among Latinos, Obama did better (57%) compared with the GOP (24%), though by a smaller margin than the one we observed in how Latinos attributed blame for US economic problems.
On fiscal policy, the story of Latino viewpoints remains consistent—Latinos are roughly pragmatic progressives when it comes to taxation and spending. During the high-stakes standoff in the summer of 2011 between Republicans and President Obama over extending the government’s borrowing authority and solving the budget deficit, we asked Latinos about their preferred solutions. We found that 46% of Latino registered voters supported raising taxes on the wealthy, compared to only 7% who said the solution is to cut existing programs and 37% who preferred a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. Altogether, 83% of Latino voters supported a deficit reduction plan that includes tax increases on the wealthy to help America balance the budget. This support is consistent with the previous attitudes of Latino voters. In a February 2011 tracking poll, Latino Decisions reported that only 27% of Latino registered voters supported extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, while 64% opposed the tax cuts for the wealthy.7 Moreover, by about two-to-one, Latinos supported federal investment in infrastructure projects (57%), as opposed to tax reductions (30%), as a way to stimulate and improve the economy.
FIGURE 3.8Trust among Registered Voters in Republicans or Democrats to Shepherd the Economy, November 2011
This general finding was consistent all the way through the November 2012 election. In our Latino Decisions election eve poll, the “cuts only” approach drew just 12% support, while tax increases on the wealthy and corporations attracted 35%, and a combination approach 42%. Again, 77% of all Latino voters who turned
out in the November 2012 election favored some form of tax increase, a clear indicator of their preferences regarding how government should act.
IS RELIGIOSITY AN INDICATOR OF CONSERVATISM?
A second possible exception to the idea that Latinos are inherently progressive, as noted by pundits and politicians alike, is in the area of so-called social issues: specifically, the issues of abortion and gay rights. This claim is based in the frequently cited rates of church attendance among Latinos, who are on average more likely to attend church than most other Americans; Latino Catholics in particular are more churchgoing than other Catholics. So, the theory goes, Latinos’ religious convictions (coupled, more often than not, with the pundit’s unspoken stereotype of Latinos as undereducated and traditionalist rather than worldly) should imply a set of political and social values to which conservatives and Republicans might appeal.
In November 2004, the New York Times announced that “moral values [are] cited as a defining issue of the election,” and numerous anecdotal claims were made that President Bush benefited from a spate of same-sex marriage initiatives across the country that boosted turnout among churchgoing social conservatives. As part of this supposed “moral values” wave, even Latinos, some claimed, turned out in larger than expected numbers for Bush. For example, the National Journal wrote that, “for Bush, the evangelical Latino community proved to be an ideal target constituency, because in pursuing it the GOP could push the hot-button issues of abortion and gay rights in ways that had been powerfully effective among white evangelicals.” Examining the 2004 exit polls, Marisa Abrajano, Michael Alvarez, and Jonathan Nagler, after controlling for a host of other well-known factors, found that Latino voters who ranked “moral values” as their top concern—as 18% of Latinos did—were statistically less likely to vote for John Kerry.8
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