Analog SFF, June 2009
Page 22
Don Sakers is the author of A Rose From Old Terra and Dance for the Ivory Madonna. For more information, visit www.scatteredworlds.com.
* * * *
COVER CAPTION
Two rovers approach an Altair lander near the lunar south pole. Atop the Altair's deck rests a habitat module, newest addition to the nearby Shackleton International Outpost. Construction of humankind's first permanent lunar base could begin as early as 2020. Painting © Michael Carroll for the upcoming book The Seventh Landing (Springer 2009)
[Back to Table of Contents]
* * *
Reader's Department: BRASS TACKS
Dear Dr. Schmidt:
One more vote for “Tracking.” The author nailed the young heroine's stream of consciousness perfectly. I admit it took me a couple of pages to really appreciate what he accomplished, but then I couldn't wait for each new episode. The second young heroine story, “Wake,” was equally enjoyable. I anxiously awaited the last installment (March ‘09) to see what the author would do with the dawning intelligence of Webmind, the fascinating subplot with Hobo, and even the Chinese atrocity connection. I hope the Mr. Sawyer will delight us with a sequel addressing these other story lines.
Paul Stahlhuth
El Dorado Hills, Ca
* * * *
Dr. Schmidt:
Regarding your March editorial “Can't get there from here?": Interesting idea you presented. Then, so is a perpetual motion machine.
As a history major myself and a continuing student, I have observed that there are two competing socioeconomic systems that have been around since the first humans, either Adam and Eve or overachieving chimps. One is the collectivist/command/control (C3) model. I believe what you propose falls into this category as does the Marxist/communist program we are about to have thrust upon us. The other is the individualist/freedom/self-interest (IFS) model. This was the predominant system in the US from colonial times until the 1930s.
I submit that the IFS is the better one. By better I mean the IFS system generates wealth and spreads it around. The C3 system generates poverty and spreads that around. I believe the accuracy of those statements is demonstrable through historical and technological examples.
The two classic historical examples I cite are the US, as stated above, and the British Empire of the 18th and 19th centuries. What? Nineteenth century Britain, with all the horrors of the Industrial Revolution? Sure. Most of the worst abuses were eventually corrected through the efforts of individuals and small groups influencing individual industries and the legislative bodies of the day. This is government from the bottom up and is a signature trait of an IFS system.
The one technological innovation I cite in support of the IFS statement is distributed computing as described in Swarm by Michael Crichton, in which huge numbers of rudimentary computational elements are linked together to form intelligent hominids. Each element on its own was inconsequential. Together they built an intelligent person. More on this shortly.
The historical examples of the C3 model and the consequences of implementing are the Soviet Union, of course, and Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe. The numerous failures of the USSR are well known and I won't take the space here to enumerate them. When Zimbabwe was still Rhodesia, its citizens, black and white, enjoyed one of the highest standards of living Africa. It was a major exporter of food throughout the region. The human migration pattern was into Rhodesia. With the installation of Mugabe, every single favorable aspect was turned inside out, so that Zimbabwe today is the last stop on the rail line to hell. This is government from the top down, typical of C3 socio-economic systems. Without any exception I can think of, they become dictatorships.
As far as technological example of the C3 model goes, I can really only think of one. Vanguard?
Referring back to distributed computation, I become more convinced every day that this is the best model for a functioning free-market economy. Individuals using enlightened self-interest in an environment of minimum government intervention will work out mistakes and errors and become stronger as a result. They will use resources efficiently and find new ones or work-arounds when they are depleted.
You correctly state that socio-economic systems are enormously complex. No one really knows or understands what's going on. (Though, I believe Thomas Sowell comes pretty close.) C3 leaders in charge never seem to appreciate that as they tinker around an engine they do not and cannot fully understand. Witness the fact that objective economic historians are now concluding that FDR's actions in the 30s turned what should have been a four or five year recession into a decade-long depression; a depression that only ended with the start of a world war.
Since neither you nor anyone else can accurately predict the outcome of any given socio-economic manipulation the best, the only sane course of action is to do nothing. It will eventually all work out. The result may not be to your personal taste, but it will be the best solution for the greatest number of people. That's my definition of “fairness” and societal “justice.”
Sue Jarrell
* * * *
Your faith that “it will all work out” is touching, but history contains plenty of examples of things that didn't. Of course, historical examples (including both yours and mine) are of only limited value for guessing what can happen in the future, since there really are some forces at work now that never existed before.
* * * *
Stan:
Your March editorial glosses over a major problem: Who decides which kinds of work are unnecessary, and how do you eliminate them?
To take one of your examples: Yes, disposable shopping bags are wasteful (though I productively reuse at least some of mine), but attempts to wean customers off them have been progressing slowly at best, and as long as the customers expect them, the stores will continue to provide them. One of my local stores has started charging for bags (indirectly, by offering the customer a five cent discount for each bag they didn't take), yet it's still uncommon for customers to show up with their own bags. Apparently, in the minds of many people, these disposable totes not yet unnecessary, much as we might wish otherwise. Convenience is a product like any other.
And financial objections arise when we consider eliminating many of the tasks that appear to be make-work. Advertising could be argued to be purely parasitic—and much of it would be if we didn't care which supplier got the customer's money. Unfortunately, as long as there's a profit motive, we do care, and the ad men get their megabucks for the service of biasing the flow of more megabucks. Lawyers should be unnecessary, but doing without one is often unwise. I've had good managers and bad managers; they really are doing something important, as becomes obvious when they do it poorly. And so on.
And it should be pointed out that some social energy waste, like junk DNA, may actually be a reservoir of adaptability. A neutral or disadvantageous mutation may be a lifesaver when the environment changes; the vestigial products and procedures that are a drag on us when everything is going right may save our bacon in the rare case where something goes wrong.
It's easy to assert that there is waste. The problem is getting folks to agree on what is and isn't waste, and to agree on which (if any) of the alternatives are better. I think our best odds for “getting there from here” are to sit back, watch what happens, and do a bit of selective breeding and weeding when the opportunity arises. It's slow, but we know it works.
Joe Kesselman
* * * *
There's considerable merit in what you say, and your conclusion provides at least a partial answer to the question you pose at the beginning. Who decides what work is unnecessary? The people do, by choosing not to buy things they don't really want or need. This is more likely, of course, if they have learned to actually think about what's worth buying (and therefore worth making), which means that education has an important role to play.
Advertising isn't purely parasitic; businesses can't attract customers if customers don't know they exist, and customers similarly can't find busines
ses they'd like to deal with. But here again education could radically change how customers and businesses interact through advertising. At present, what sells often has less to do with the quality of the product than with the glitziness of the promotion. If more customers had the habit of looking critically at actual information content, things might be very different.
* * * *
Dear Dr. Schmidt,
In your editorial you failed to address one important point—what to do in the spare time? Doing nothing soon gets boring, and so does continuous entertainment! It is very likely that this omission has been the downfall of all similar schemes in the past. If you look in history, you can see that if people really want something done very badly, they manage to accomplish it.
The topic of your editorial was exhaustively dealt with more than a hundred years ago by the Latvian economist Carl Ballod. While a professor in Germany, he wrote “Die Zukunftstaat” (The Future State), where he calculated that under rational management each adult could retire with full benefits after some fifteen years of labor.
He also devised a system by which the entire population of a state would be guaranteed all the necessities of life, regardless of income. During wars the German government turned his system into a rationing system by which the production to meet civilian needs could be minimized, releasing more industrial capacity for military use.
Carl Ballod was a world-class economist. When he died in 1932, The New York Times published his obituary.
Andrejs Baidins
* * * *
This probably is a point that I don't appreciate as well as I should, since in this respect I seem to be an alien among my own kind. I realize intellectually that some people do have trouble thinking of things to do with their time, but actually having that problem is one of the few things I can't really imagine. How is it possible, with all the fascinating things to learn, see, and do that this universe is filled with?
And besides, I never said anything about getting rid of all work—just reducing the amount everybody has to do.
* * * *
Hi, Stan—
I've just read your March editorial, and one possible answer to the problem you pose is before us at this moment—though it wasn't when you wrote the editorial! The ongoing financial crisis has meant that over the last few months many people have lost jobs. Government is bailing out financial institutions and automakers, in the name of limiting the pain and suffering. In past financial crises, occasional businesses have kept workers employed by trimming everyone's hours. If government pushed that, on a national level, as a way of dealing with the crisis, the result might look a lot like what you're talking about. One step in that direction is Obama's proposal to create jobs working on roads, bridges, and alternative energy (work that needs to be done). Unfortunately, the aim seems to restore the status quo ante rather than to redefine the economic system.
Tom Easton
* * * *
I think you're exactly right—but what are the chances that enough people will recognize this scary problem as a golden opportunity?
* * * *
Dear Dr. Schmidt,
In your March Editorial, you “throw out a challenge to the world's biggest think tank,” your readership—and on a topic of personal interest, where I've been known to say many of the same things—BUT ... it would be a lot more useful if you also provided a forum for responding to the challenge. Perhaps a clearly delineated topic on the analogsf.com forums?
You have an incredible soapbox for raising issues—it's a shame that you don't leverage that a bit more.
Sincerely,
Miles Fidelman
* * * *
Seems to me that the analogsf.com Forum is actually what you're suggesting, and anybody can start a topic there. Go to it!
[Back to Table of Contents]
* * *
Reader's Department: UPCOMING EVENTS
by Anthony Lewis
2-5 July 2009
WESTERCON 62/FIESTACON (Western North America Science Fantasy convention) at Tempe Mission Palms Hotel, Tempe, AZ. Artist Guest of Honor: Todd Lockwood; Writer Guest of Honor: Alan Dean Foster; Editor Guest of Honor: Stanley Schmidt; Fan Guests of Honor: Jim & Doreen Webbert; Toastmasters: Patrick and Teresa Nielsen Hayden. Membership after 31 December 2008 to be announced. Info: www.fiestacon.org/; fiestacon@leprecon.org; +1.480.945.6890; FiestaCon, c/o Leprecon, Inc., PO Box 26665 Tempe, AZ 85285
17-20 July 2009
MYTHCON 40 (Mythopoeic Society annual conference) at UCLA—deNeve Plaza, Los Angeles, CA. Author Guest of Honor: James A. Owen; Scholar Guest of Honor: Diana Pavlac Glyer. Theme: “Sailing the Seas of Imagination.” Banquet with Mythopoeic Awards. Membership: Mythopoeic Society members $65, non-members $75 until 15 May; $5 more thereafter. Info: www.mythsoc.org/mythcon/40/; correspondence@mythsoc.org; Edith L. Crowe, Corresponding Secretary, The Mythopoeic Society, PO Box 6707, Altadena, CA 91003.
31 July-2 August 2009
DIVERSICON 17 (Twin Cities multimedia conference) at Best Western—Bandana Square, Saint Paul, MN. Guest of Honor: Kay Kenyon; Special Guests: Michael Levy, Sandra Lindow. Honoring Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Edgar Allan Poe. Membership: $30 (adult), $20 (student), $5 (supporting) until 14 July 2009; $40 (adult), $30 (student) at the door. Info: www.diversicon.org/; diversicon@ gmail.com, PO Box 8036, Lake Street Station, Minneapolis, MN 55408-0036
6-10 August 2009
ANTICIPATION (67th World Science Fiction Convention) at Palais des congrés de Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada. Guests of Honor: Neil Gaiman, Elisabeth Vonarburg; Fan Guest of Honor: Taral Wayne; Editor Guest of Honor: David G. Hartwell; Publisher Guest of Honor: Tom Doherty; MC: Julie Czerneda. Membership: until 15 July 2009 (see website for latest details): CAD/AUD 240; USD 200; GBP 135; EUR 145; JPY 18000; supporting membership CAD/AUD 55; USD 50; GBP 30; EUR 35; JPY 6000. This is the SF universe's annual get-together. Professionals and readers from all over the world will be in attendance. Talks, panels, films, fancy dress competition—the works. Nominate and vote for the Hugos. Info: www.anticipationsf.ca/English/ Home; C.P. 105, Succursale NDG, Montréal, Québec, Canada H4A 3P4
4-7 September 2009
North America Discworld Convention (conference dedicated to Terry Prachett's Discworld books) at The Tempe Mission Palms Hotel, Tempe, AZ. Guest of Honor: Terry Prachett; Other guests: Esther Friesner, Diane Duane, Peter Morwood. Info: www.nadwcon.org; info@nadwcon.org; +1.480.945.6890; North American Discworld Convention 2009, c/o Leprecon, Inc., P.O. Box 26665, Tempe, AZ 85285.
* * *
Visit www.analogsf.com for information on additional titles by this and other authors.