Dragonfire

by Humphrey Hawksley

  ‘Which is precisely what President Gorbunov would like you to do to Prime Minister Dixit.’

  ‘I haven’t finished,’ snapped Tao. Baltin fell quiet, remembering the Chinese president’s penchant for lecturing. ‘Since the end of colonialism, India has purported to be the civilized face of Third World development. At Bandung, Nehru was gracious, like a father to an adopted child. Yet it was comrade Zhou who stole the show and no amount of embraces could hide the fact. While Nehru had been selling his books to Western publishers and dressing in Western suits, comrade Zhou had been commanding our fighters to rid China of corruption and oppression. The developing countries knew that Zhou was the genuine reformer. Nehru resented it deeply. Nehru’s India had copied the Western democratic model and used English as its national language of communication. We pursued a more difficult path of finding our own way, the Asian way, which has proved more suitable to the culture of this region. We are now richer than India. Our people are better educated. Our hospitals and schools are better equipped. Our influence in global affairs is greater. The Chinese people are more confident.

  ‘Yet India knows there is one weakness it can exploit and that is Tibet. In 1959, when the Dalai Lama escaped, Prime Minister Nehru travelled all the way to the Mussoorie Hill Station to greet him. This was a completely unfitting reception for a government to give the leader of a rebellion in a friendly neighbouring state. Your Russian troops have been in Chechnya to prevent separation, causing great bloodshed. We have done nothing like that in Tibet since putting down the rebellion in 1959. Even now, during the riots after the escape of prisoner Togden, our reaction has been constrained. Indian troops carried out that operation. The rebels are given sanctuary and supplies on Indian territory. The Dalai Lama, the inspirational leader of the rebellion, lives there. I sympathize with your President’s concerns. I am worried, too. But I cannot allow the dismemberment of the Motherland in exchange for Russia’s desire to lead a tripartite power bloc which might or might not work.

  ‘So tell President Gorbunov to bring his influence to bear on India. An end to terrorism in Tibet. The expulsion of the Dalai Lama. The arrest of terrorists. The closing of their camps. Once that is announced, we will withdraw our troops from Arunachal Pradesh and then Russia can mediate in talks about our disputed border with India. Until then, the war continues.’

  Without saying goodbye, Tao turned on his heels and left the room. Jamie Song escorted Baltin outside, so they could talk more freely.

  ‘We are offering you six Typhoon-class nuclear-powered submarines,’ said Baltin.

  ‘President Tao sees it as a trick,’ said Song. ‘The issues on the table now will be solved within a few days. The submarines will take months of training and trials before we can put them to use.’

  Baltin nodded. ‘Do me one favour, then, Jamie. I understand the Americans are about to come down on the side of India, which will put them directly at odds with you. The Indian communities in Europe and the States are carrying out an impressive lobbying campaign, way smarter than anything the Chinese can do. Mushroom clouds, democracy, all that sort of thing. Get yourself on CNN and do something to neutralize it.’

  Song laughed sarcastically: ‘So while India and Pakistan are in the middle of a nuclear war, China goes on CNN.’

  Cabinet Room, Downing Street, London

  Local time: 0400 Monday 7 May 2007

  ‘They want us to blow up Chinese ships in a Burmese naval base,’ said Anthony Pincher.

  ‘It is one of the most preposterous ideas in the history of modern conflict,’ said Christopher Baker, looking at his Permanent Under-Secretary, Sir Malcolm Parton, for support.

  ‘If the Chinese found out it was us,’ said Sir Malcolm, ‘our relationship would be set back generations. They would never forget it.’

  ‘Does that matter?’ said Pincher. ‘My gut political instinct is to back India. This is the sort of action which would let us do it in a distinctive way, not as a lapdog to the Americans.’

  CNN Studios, Atlanta, USA

  Local time: 2300 Sunday 6 May 2007

  GMT: 0400 Monday 7 May 2007

  Anchor: We’re going from the crisis in India and Pakistan over to Beijing, China where we hope the Foreign Minister, Jamie Song, can shed some light on the terrible unfolding of events this evening. China is a long-term ally of Pakistan. It is at odds with India over Tibet. Seventeen hours ago, China invaded India, using the territory of another ally, Burma – or Myanmar – to move in. Jamie Song is calling from his car mobile so we apologize for the quality of the line. Foreign Minister, thank you for joining us. Firstly, on the nuclear strike. Hamid Khan has been unclear about whether he will launch another nuclear strike. Can you persuade him not to, for the sake of world peace?

  Song: You speak about peace as if you can pluck it off trees. Yes, China wants peace. Our whole doctrine over the past fifty years has been to strengthen our political institutions and our economy. You can’t do that while fighting wars. We are not expansionist and we did not start the present conflict.

  Anchor: You invaded India. You supplied Pakistan with the neutron bomb.

  Song: Indian troops invaded Tibet. We are merely defending our borders. I utterly refute the allegation that we supplied any nuclear material to Pakistan.

  Anchor: All right, Foreign Minister, you say you’re not expansionist, yet India claims that you have sent warships into the Indian Ocean.

  Song: Technically, they are in the Andaman Sea. But you’re right. China’s oil supplies from the Middle East go through the Indian Ocean. We have a ship-visiting arrangement with the government of Myanmar. Given our reliance on that oil, it is only right that the Chinese navy is there to offer protection.

  Anchor: Then you would have to take on the Indian navy.

  Song: We hope it won’t come to that. You will also note that the British, Australian, New Zealand and Singaporean navies are in the Andaman Sea as well and an American carrier group is in the Indian Ocean.

  Anchor: Could we try to look ahead, Foreign Minister. I understand President Hastings is about to hold a brief news conference. He’s expected to announce his support for the Indian government against Pakistan. What will be your reaction?

  Song: He should examine the facts. India invaded both China and Pakistan. Pakistan exploded nuclear weapons over its own territory, not on Indian soil. India broke through the Line of Control in Kashmir to try to set up a new frontier ten miles inside Pakistani-controlled territory. India is hosting Tibetan terrorists. It is dangerously glib to talk about democracy and dictatorships. It might win him votes for the next election, but it will not create a better or safer world – that is if there is a world left for any of us to live in.

  Anchor: I’m sorry, Foreign Minister. Should I take that as a warning for the President?

  Song: If you wish to see it like that. India and China are not like Iraq and Kuwait or Belgrade and Kosovo. If we are threatened, we will defend ourselves, and as I pointed out just now, India has proved itself to be the most unpredictable and hazardous country on earth.

  General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

  Local time: 0930 Monday 7 May 2007

  GMT: 0430 Monday 7 May 2007

  ‘Get me President Hastings!’ Hamid Khan had watched Jamie Song’s broadcast and taken it to be a message of continuing support. He also remembered the words of the Mullah al-Bishri: concentrate on Kashmir. If he won Kashmir, he would bring peace to South Asia, secure Pakistan and win the respect of the Islamic and Western worlds.

  ‘The White House is referring us to Ambassador Watkins at the Embassy,’ said Masood. Arthur Watkins, a career State Department diplomat, was patched through to the bunker at Chaklala.

  ‘The United States is concerned that your statement was not clear enough, General,’ said Watkins.

  ‘I want to discuss it personally with President Hastings,’ said Khan curtly.

  ‘The President won’t be taking your call, General. You talk to me or no one
at all.’

  ‘I made my statement and now America must support our call for peace.’

  ‘The statement was premised on India’s declaration of a ceasefire. We need it to be a stand-alone announcement, not conditional on any other action.’

  ‘I have done that on nuclear strikes. I cannot make a unilateral ceasefire on Kashmir.’

  ‘In which case I am authorized to tell you that the United States will throw its diplomatic support behind the democratically elected government in India.’

  ‘You have thought of the consequences?’

  ‘That is what I am paid to do, General. And if it’s any help, that is my personal view as well.’

  ‘The Chinese will never allow it.’

  ‘I don’t think the Chinese have the authority to make American policy. The President will not be making his statement for another thirty minutes or so. You have time to think about it.’

  As soon as Khan had finished the call, Masood said: ‘They are waiting for your instructions, General.’

  Two Chinese M-11 medium-range missiles, known locally as the Shaheen 1, were on mobile launchers, erected at 60 degrees, 800 metres apart, in cleared wooded area outside the town of Kagan. The border with Pakistani-controlled Kashmir was 13 kilometres to the east. Islamabad was 120 kilometres to the south. The target was the heart of the Kashmir Valley, the headquarters of XV Corps at the Badami Bagh Cantonment, which was set back on the other side of a hill from the busy area around Dal Lake and the market. Each missile was meant to have a conventional single 500 kilogram warhead.

  National Command Centre, Karwana, Haryana, India

  Local time: 1007 Monday 7 May 2007

  GMT: 0437 Monday 7 May 2007

  ‘Missile launch from Pakistan!’ shouted Unni Khrishnan.

  ‘Target?’ snapped back Hari Dixit.

  ‘Uncertain, sir. We won’t know until re-entry.’

  ‘Warhead?’

  ‘Not known.’

  ‘Time to impact?’

  ‘Estimated three minutes. Do we launch?’

  ‘Launch site?’

  ‘Kagan. Northern Pakistan. 34 degrees 47 North. 73 degrees 36 East.’

  Dixit was silent, his eyes darting between his watch and the television screen. This was the moment of horrific farce about which so much had been talked and nothing had been done. Nine years since the nuclear tests and all they had were two defunct hotlines which no one ever answered. No system of checks had been set up. No negotiations to stop a false nuclear launch. Nothing to stop mistakes. When it had all started, he was a health minister in a far-away state and knew nothing at all about war.

  ‘Get me Hamid Khan.’

  ‘They’re not picking up, sir,’ said an aide-de-camp.

  ‘Permission to counter-strike, sir,’ said a voice which Dixit didn’t even recognize.

  ‘Confirm the number of enemy missiles?’

  ‘Two, sir.’

  ‘Time to impact two minutes twenty-eight seconds.’

  ‘Waiting your instructions, sir.’

  Except for the whirring of the air conditioning, there was complete quiet in the hot, claustrophobic bunker. The nuclear doctrine used in Asia, such as it existed, was one of revenge. There was no carefully balanced Mutually Assured Destruction, as in the Cold War, in which the United States and the Soviet Union would be deterred from attacking each other because nothing would be left of their countries once it was over. Nor were there checks on each other’s nuclear arsenals. India and Pakistan were as the Cold War was in the 1950s, not in the 1980s. Within two minutes, an Indian city could be destroyed by a nuclear weapon, in which case Hari Dixit would unleash enough fire-power to eradicate Pakistan as a nation.

  ‘Missiles on re-entry. Rajendra [phased-array radar] switched on. Akash [long-range surface-to-air missile] launched. One . . . Two . . . Three and Four.’ India had deployed one of its six Russian-built integrated theatre-defence systems in Srinagar, throwing a 500-square kilometre protective umbrella around the city. The other five expanded the umbrella to cover the whole of northern Indian, threatened by Pakistan. The radar could detect an incoming ballistic missile 65 kilometres away, and the defending missile could hit descending targets 24 kilometres high, with an in-built active control mechanism which would guide it precisely onto the incoming Pakistani Shaheen. The system was meant to be able to track sixty-four targets simultaneously.

  ‘Shaheen hit and destroyed.’

  ‘One or two?’

  ‘One, sir.’

  ‘Chandra Reddy on the line.’

  Many key Indian defence officials had remained outside the bunker, running operations on a war footing, but not protected from nuclear strike. Chandra Reddy, the Head of External Intelligence, and the Foreign Minister Prabhu Purie were still working from South Block.

  ‘I’m not responding,’ said Dixit.

  ‘Good. He wants you to retaliate,’ said Reddy. ‘We should do nothing.’

  ‘Enemy missile ten seconds from impact, veering. It looks out of control.’

  ‘Stay on the line,’ said Dixit to Reddy.

  ‘Impact, sir.’

  ‘Where?’

  ‘Military HQ. Unconfirmed. Yes. Military HQ. My God. No. Four impacts. Multiple warheads.’

  ‘One has gone on the other side of the hill. Impact on Dal Lake market,’ said Reddy. ‘My God, thousands of people are there.’

  Srinagar, Kashmir, India

  Local time 1015 Monday 7 May 2007

  GMT: 0445 Monday 7 May 2007

  The fireball swept off the lawn of the Badami Bagh Cantonment with the wind, down towards the lake and into the market, sucking everything into its wake. The blasts of explosions from two separate warheads crushed together like the confluence of rivers. Barely anything survived in the first few seconds. Those on the outer fringes who did miraculously live spoke of the roaring winds of hell and the searing inferno which engulfed their loved ones in death. The flimsy buildings in central Srinagar caught light. Gas cylinders and fuel tanks blew up, as if smaller bombs had been planted in the most crowded streets. The victims tried to push their way out to open spaces. The weak were trampled to death. Stampedes took hold and panic swept through the city. Flames leapt into the sky, and after the enormous noise of explosions died down, screams for help could be heard, desperate, weak and sometimes horribly short and solitary until death took over. With their clothes in flames, many jumped into the cold waters of the Dal Lake only to be dragged down, or caught up in weeds and drowned there. The emergency services could do little. They could barely get into the streets, and had no equipment or medical services to deal with such a tragedy.

  A single artillery shell or mortar landing in a crowded market place can do appalling damage. The destruction of a conventional missile warhead is unimaginable. The market was not a big one, nor was it buried within the warren of streets of old Srinagar, where the casualties would have been far higher. But it was by the Dal Lake, where traders set up stalls around the bus station, a place of transit, meeting, talking and buying, the first flavour of Kashmir which many visitors saw when they arrived.

  More than two hundred soldiers died at the military headquarters, including the corps commander. By noon, it was clear that the missile strike had killed at least seven hundred Kashmiris in central Srinagar. Many more were expected to die, and by the end of the day the dreadful pictures of the aftermath of the attack were formulating the international policy which would last for generations.

  Indian military HQ, Karwana, Haryana, India

  Local time: 1015 Monday 7 May 2007

  GMT: 0445 Monday 7 May 2007

  Prabhu Purie, the Foreign Minister, and Chandra Reddy were on the line from Delhi with Hari Dixit and Chief of Army Staff, Unni Khrishnan. ‘We have to kill his command and control centre,’ said Hari Dixit.

  ‘That is Chaklala, sir. Hamid Khan’s bunker,’ said Unni Khrishnan.

  ‘Then we must strike it.’

  ‘You could only be sure of
success with a nuclear weapon.’

  ‘Mani, what is your view?’

  ‘Can’t we bring in the Americans or the Russians and keep our own slate clean?’

  ‘Chandraji?’

  ‘He’s made big blunder. My guess is he didn’t intend to use multiple warheads. That was a cock-up. The missile we shot down was heading for the airfield. The one we failed to get was heading for the military headquarters. He would not have targeted the market. He has killed his own people. He could go one of two ways. Admit it and surrender. Or carry out another strike immediately to dampen the impact of this one. My guess is he’s going to strike again.’

  ‘Inside or outside Kashmir?’

  ‘Impossible to say.’

  The Rose Garden, The White House, Washington, DC

  Local time: 1155 Sunday 6 May 2007

  GMT: 0455 Monday 7 May 2007

  Question: President Hastings, the statements so far from the State Department and the Pentagon have not made clear where your support lies – with India or Pakistan. Could you clarify your position, please?

  Hastings: I want a ceasefire then negotiations. But I want to say something about conflicts, and this one in particular. The grievances which caused this conflict go back to the partition of India in 1947. It is not a forward-looking issue, like the issues which tied us up during the Cold War. That was about the future, whether the political and economic system in the Western democracies or that of the Soviet Union was the more powerful one. The conflict between India and Pakistan is about the past. They have no issue with each other over their political systems and the basic concepts of democracy. This is not Pakistan fighting against the repression of Muslims in India as a whole. Or India defending Hindu rights in Pakistan. This war is about a piece of land called Kashmir. It’s run by India, but claimed by Pakistan and it should have been sorted out as part of the overall independence deal, but it wasn’t and that’s why I’m standing here now.