The Silk Roads: A New History of the World

by Frankopan, Peter

  100The United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 540, calling for an end to military operations, but falling short of mentioning chemical weapons. According to one senior UN official, when the secretary-general, Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, raised the issue of looking into this matter, ‘he encountered an antarctically cold atmosphere; the Security Council wanted nothing of it’. Hiltermann, A Poisonous Affair, p. 58. Also here see Gibson, Covert Relationship, pp. 108–9.

  101Fredman, ‘Shoring up Iraq’, 539.

  102‘Iraqi Use of Chemical Weapons’, in Gibson, Covert Relationship, p. 108.

  103Fredman, ‘Shoring Up Iraq’, 542.

  104A. Neier, ‘Human Rights in the Reagan Era: Acceptance by Principle’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 506.1 (1989), 30–41.

  105Braithwaite, Afgantsy, pp. 201–2, and M. Bearden and J. Risen, Afghanistan: The Main Enemy (New York, 2003), pp. 227, 333–6.

  106Braithwaite, Afgantsy, p. 214; D. Gai and V. Snegirev, Vtorozhenie (Moscow, 1991), p. 139.

  107Braithwaite, Afgantsy, pp. 228–9.

  108Ibid., p. 223.

  109J. Hershberg, ‘The War in Afghanistan and the Iran–Contra Affair: Missing Links?’, Cold War History 3.3 (2003), 27.

  110National Security Decision Directive 166, 27 March 1985, National Security Archive.

  111Hershberg, ‘The War in Afghanistan and the Iran–Contra Affair’, 28; also H. Teicher and G. Teicher, Twin Pillars to Desert Storm: America’s Flawed Vision in the Middle East from Nixon to Bush (New York, 1993), pp. 325–6.

  112Braithwaite, Afgantsy, p. 215.

  113Coll, Ghost Wars, pp. 161–2, 71–88.

  114Beijing Review, 7 January 1980.

  115M. Malik, Assessing China’s Tactical Gains and Strategic Losses Post-September 11 (Carlisle Barracks, 2002), cited by S. Mahmud Ali, US–China Cold War Collaboration: 1971–1989 (Abingdon, 2005), p. 177.

  116Braithwaite, Afgantsy, pp. 202–3.

  117Cited by Teicher and Teicher, Twin Pillars to Desert Storm, p. 328.

  118‘Toward a Policy in Iran’, in The Tower Commission Report: The Full Text of the President’s Special Review Board (New York, 1987), pp. 112–15.

  119H. Brands, ‘Inside the Iraqi State Records: Saddam Hussein, “Irangate” and the United States’, Journal of Strategic Studies 34.1 (2011), 103.

  120H. Emadi, Politics of the Dispossessed: Superpowers and Developments in the Middle East (Westport, CT, 2001), p. 41.

  121Hershberg, ‘The War in Afghanistan and the Iran–Contra Affair’, 30–1.

  122Ibid., 35, 37–9.

  123M. Yousaf and M. Adkin, The Bear Trap (London, 1992), p. 150.

  124‘Memorandum of Conversation, 26 May 1986’, Tower Commission Report, pp. 311–12; Hershberg, ‘The War in Afghanistan and the Iran–Contra Affair’, 40, 42.

  125Cited by Hershberg, ‘The War in Afghanistan and the Iran–Contra Affair’, 39.

  126S. Yetiv, The Absence of Grand Strategy: The United States in the Persian Gulf, 1972–2005 (Baltimore, 2008), p. 57.

  127E. Hooglund, ‘The Policy of the Reagan Administration toward Iran’, in Keddie and Gasiorowski, Neither East nor West, p. 190. For another example, see Brands, ‘Inside the Iraqi State Records’, 100.

  128K. Woods, Mother of All Battles: Saddam Hussein’s Strategic Plan for the Persian Gulf War (Annapolis, 2008), p. 50.

  129B. Souresrafil, Khomeini and Israel (London, 1988), p. 114.

  130Report of the Congressional Committees Investigating the Iran–Contra Affair, with Supplemental, Minority, and Additional Views (Washington, DC, 1987), p. 176.

  131For the arms sales, Report of the Congressional Committees Investigating the Iran–Contra Affair, passim.

  132A. Hayes, ‘The Boland Amendments and Foreign Affairs Deference’, Columbia Law Review 88.7 (1988), 1534–74.

  133‘Address to the Nation on the Iran Arms and Contra Aid Controversy’, 13 November 1986, PPPUS: Ronald Reagan, 1986, p. 1546.

  134‘Address to the Nation on the Iran Arms and Contra Aid Controversy’, 4 March 1987, PPPUS: Ronald Reagan, 1987, p. 209.

  135L. Walsh, Final Report of the Independent Counsel for Iran/Contra Matters, 4 vols (Washington, DC, 1993).

  136G. H. W. Bush, ‘Grant of Executive Clemency’, Proclamation 6518, 24 December 1992, Federal Register 57.251, pp. 62145–6.

  137‘Cabinet Meeting regarding the Iran–Iraq War, mid-November 1986’, and ‘Saddam Hussein Meeting with Ba’ath Officials’, early 1987, both cited by Brands, ‘Inside the Iraqi State Records’, 105.

  138‘Saddam Hussein Meeting with Ba’ath Officials’, early 1987, cited by Brands, ‘Inside the Iraqi State Records’, 112–13.

  139Ibid., 113.

  140Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the Director of Central Intelligence on Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction, 3 vols (2004), 1, p. 31; Brands, ‘Inside the Iraqi State Records’, 113.

  141Colin Powell Notes of meeting 21 January 1987, Woodrow Wilson Center, The Origins, Conduct, and Impact of the Iran–Iraq War.

  142Brands, ‘Inside the Iraqi State Records’, 112.

  143D. Neff, ‘The US, Iraq, Israel and Iran: Backdrop to War’, Journal of Palestinian Studies 20.4 (1991), 35.

  144Brands and Palkki, ‘Conspiring Bastards’, 648.

  145Fredman, ‘Shoring Up Iraq’, 548.

  146WikiLeaks, 90 BAGHDAD 4237.

  147‘Excerpts from Iraqi Document on Meeting with US Envoy’, New York Times, 23 September 1990.

  Chapter 25 – The Road to Tragedy

  1Paul to Foreign & Commonwealth Office, ‘Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti’, 20 December 1969, FCO 17/871; ‘Saddam Hussein’, Telegram from British Embassy, Baghdad to Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, 20 December 1969, FCO 17/871.

  2‘Rumsfeld Mission: December 20 Meeting with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’, National Security Archive. For the French and Saddam, C. Saint-Prot, Saddam Hussein: un gaullisme arabe? (Paris, 1987); also see D. Styan, France and Iraq: Oil, Arms and French Policy Making in the Middle East (London, 2006).

  3‘Saddam and his Senior Advisors Discussing Iraq’s Historical Rights to Kuwait and the US Position’, 15 December 1990, in Woods, Palkki and Stout, Saddam Tapes, pp. 34–5.

  4President George H. W. Bush, ‘National Security Directive 54. Responding to Iraqi Aggression in the Gulf’, 15 January 1991, National Security Archive.

  5G. Bush, Speaking of Freedom: The Collected Speeches of George H. W. Bush (New York, 2009), pp. 196–7.

  6J. Woodard, The America that Reagan Built (Westport, CT, 2006), p. 139, n. 39.

  7President George H. W. Bush, ‘National Security Directive 54. Responding to Iraqi Aggression in the Gulf’.

  8G. Bush and B. Scowcroft, A World Transformed (New York, 1998), p. 489.

  9Cited by J. Connelly, ‘In Northwest: Bush–Cheney Flip Flops Cost America in Blood’, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 29 July 2004. Also see B. Montgomery, Richard B. Cheney and the Rise of the Imperial Vice Presidency (Westport, CT, 2009), p. 95.

  10W. Martel, Victory in War: Foundations of Modern Strategy (Cambridge, 2011), p. 248.

  11President Bush, ‘Address before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union’, 28 January 1992, PPPUS: George Bush, 1992–1993, p. 157.

  12For the collapse of the Soviet Union, see S. Plokhy, The Last Empire: The Final Days of the Soviet Union (New York, 2014); for China in this period, L. Brandt and T. Rawski (eds), China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge, 2008).

  13Bush, ‘State of the Union,’ 28 January 1992, p. 157.

  14UN Resolution 687 (1991), Clause 20.

  15S. Zahdi and M. Smith Fawzi, ‘Health of Baghdad’s Children’, Lancet 346.8988 (1995), 1485; C. Ronsmans et al., ‘Sanctions against Iraq’, Lancet 347.8995 (1996), 198–200. The mortality figures were later revised downwards, S. Zaidi, ‘Child Mortality in Iraq’, Lancet 350.9084 (1997), 1105.

  1660 Minutes, CBS, 12 May 1996.
>
  17B. Lambeth, The Unseen War: Allied Air Power and the Takedown of Saddam Hussein (Annapolis, 2013), p. 61.

  18For an overview here, see C. Gray, ‘From Unity to Polarization: International Law and the Use of Force against Iraq’, European Journal of International Law 13.1 (2002), 1–19. Also A. Bernard, ‘Lessons from Iraq and Bosnia on the Theory and Practice of No-Fly Zones’, Journal of Strategic Studies 27 (2004), 454–78.

  19Iraq Liberation Act, 31 October 1998.

  20President Clinton, ‘Statement on Signing the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998’, 31 October 1998, PPPUS: William J. Clinton, 1998, pp. 1938–9.

  21S. Aubrey, The New Dimension of International Terrorism (Zurich, 2004), pp. 53–6; M. Ensalaco, Middle Eastern Terrorism: From Black September to September 11 (Philadelphia, 2008), pp. 183–6; for the Dharan attack, however, note C. Shelton, ‘The Roots of Analytic Failure in the US Intelligence Community’, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence 24.4 (2011), 650–1.

  22Response to the Clinton letter, undated, 1999. Clinton Presidential Records, Near Eastern Affairs, Box 2962; Folder: Iran–US, National Security Archive. For Clinton’s dispatch, delivered by the Foreign Minister of Oman, see ‘Message to President Khatami from President Clinton’, undated, 1999, National Security Archive.

  23‘Afghanistan: Taliban seeks low-level profile relations with [United States government] – at least for now’, US Embassy Islamabad, 8 October 1996, National Security Archive.

  24‘Afghanistan: Jalaluddin Haqqani’s emergence as a key Taliban Commander’, US Embassy Islamabad, 7 January 1997, National Security Archive.

  25‘Usama bin Ladin: Islamic Extremist Financier’, CIA biography 1996, National Security Archive.

  26‘Afghanistan: Taliban agrees to visits of militant training camps, admit Bin Ladin is their guest’, US Consulate (Peshawar) cable, 9 January 1996, National Security Archive.

  27Ibid.

  28National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States (Washington, DC, 2004), pp. 113–14.

  29President Clinton, ‘Address to the Nation’, 20 August 1998, PPPUS: Clinton, 1998, p. 1461. Three days earlier, the President had given his now famous testimony that the previous statement he had given, ‘I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss [Monica] Lewinsky,’ was truthful and that his claim that ‘there is not a sexual relationship, an improper sexual relationship or any other kind of improper relationship’ was correct, depending ‘on what the meaning of the word “is” is’, Appendices to the Referral to the US House of Representatives (Washington, DC, 1998), 1, p. 510.

  30‘Afghanistan: Reaction to US Strikes Follows Predictable Lines: Taliban Angry, their Opponents Support US’, US Embassy (Islamabad) cable, 21 August 1998, National Security Archive.

  31‘Bin Ladin’s Jihad: Political Context’, US Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Intelligence Assessment, 28 August 1998, National Security Archive.

  32‘Afghanistan: Taliban’s Mullah Omar’s 8/22 Contact with State Department’, US Department of State cable, 23 August 1998, National Security Archive.

  33‘Osama bin Laden: Taliban Spokesman Seeks New Proposal for Resolving bin Laden Problem’, US Department of State cable, 28 November 1998, National Security Archive.

  34Ibid.

  35‘Afghanistan: Taliban’s Mullah Omar’s 8/22 Contact with State Department’, US Department of State cable, 23 August 1998, National Security Archive.

  36Ibid.

  37For example, ‘Afghanistan: Tensions Reportedly Mount within Taliban as Ties with Saudi Arabia Deteriorate over Bin Ladin’, US Embassy (Islamabad) cable, 28 October 1998; ‘Usama bin Ladin: Coordinating our Efforts and Sharpening our Message on Bin Ladin’, US Embassy (Islamabad) cable, 19 October 1998; ‘Usama bin Ladin: Saudi Government Reportedly Turning the Screws on the Taliban on Visas’, US Embassy (Islamabad) cable, 22 December 1998, National Security Archive.

  38Osama bin Laden: A Case Study, Sandia Research Laboratories, 1999, National Security Archive.

  39‘Afghanistan: Taleban External Ambitions’, US Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, 28 October 1998, National Security Archive.

  40A. Rashid, Taliban: The Power of Militant Islam in Afghanistan and Beyond (rev. edn, London, 2008).

  41Osama bin Laden: A Case Study, p. 13.

  42‘Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US’, 6 August 2001, National Security Archive.

  43‘Searching for the Taliban’s Hidden Message’, US Embassy (Islamabad) cable, 19 September 2000, National Security Archive.

  44The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States (New York, 2004), p. 19.

  45Ibid., passim.

  46President George W. Bush, Address to the Nation on the Terrorist Attacks, 11 September 2001, PPPUS: George W. Bush, 2001, pp. 1099–100.

  47‘Arafat Horrified by Attacks, But Thousands of Palestinians Celebrate; Rest of World Outraged’, Fox News, 12 September 2001.

  48Statement of Abdul Salam Zaeef, Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, 12 September 2001, National Security Archive.

  49Al-Jazeera, 12 September 2001.

  50‘Action Plan as of 9/13/2001, 7:55am’, US Department of State, 13 September 2001, National Security Archive.

  51‘Deputy Secretary Armitage’s Meeting with Pakistani Intel Chief Mahmud: You’re Either with Us or You’re Not’, US Department of State, 13 September 2001, National Security Archive.

  52‘Message to Taliban’, US Department of State cable, 7 October 2001, National Security Archive.

  53‘Memorandum for President Bush: Strategic Thoughts’, Office of the Secretary of Defense, 30 September 2001, National Security Archive.

  54President Bush, State of the Union address, 29 January 2002, PPPUS: Bush, 2002, p. 131.

  55‘US Strategy in Afghanistan: Draft for Discussion’, National Security Council Memorandum, 16 October 2001, National Security Archive.

  56‘Information Memorandum. Origins of the Iraq Regime Change Policy’, US Department of State, 23 January 2001, National Security Archive.

  57‘Untitled’, Donald Rumsfeld notes, 27 November 2001, National Security Archive.

  58Ibid.

  59‘Europe: Key Views on Iraqi Threat and Next Steps’, 18 December 2001; ‘Problems and Prospects of “Justifying” War with Iraq’, 29 August 2002. Both issued by US Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Assessment, National Security Archive. Lord Goldsmith to Prime Minister, ‘Iraq’, 30 July 2002; ‘Iraq: Interpretation of Resolution 1441’, Draft, 14 January 2003; ‘Iraq: Interpretation of Resolution 1441’, Draft, 12 February 2003, The Iraq Enquiry Archive.

  60‘To Ousted Boss, Arms Watchdog Was Seen as an Obstacle in Iraq’, New York Times, 13 October 2013.

  61‘Remarks to the United Nations Security Council’, 5 February 2003, National Security Archive.

  62‘The Status of Nuclear Weapons in Iraq’, 27 January 2003, IAEA, National Security Archive.

  63‘An Update on Inspection’, 27 January 2003, UNMOVIC, National Security Archive.

  64Woods and Stout, ‘New Sources for the Study of Iraqi Intelligence’, esp. 548–52.

  65‘Remarks to the United Nations Security Council’, 5 February 2003; cf. ‘Iraqi Mobile Biological Warfare Agent Production Plants’, CIA report, 28 May 2003, National Security Archive.

  66‘The Future of the Iraq Project’, State Department, 20 April 2003, National Security Archive.

  67Ari Fleischer, Press Briefing, 18 February 2003; Paul Wolfowitz, ‘Testimony before House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense’, 27 March 2003.

  68‘US Strategy in Afghanistan: Draft for Discussion’, National Security Council Memorandum, 16 October 2001, National Security Archive.

  69Planning Group Polo Step, US Central Command Slide Compilation, c. 15 August 2002, National Security Archive.

  70H. Fischer, ‘US Military Casualty Statistics: Operation New
Dawn, Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom’, Congressional Research Service, RS22452 (Washington, DC, 2014).

  71Estimates of numbers of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014 are regularly placed within the range of 170,000–220,000. See for example www.costsofwar.org.

  72L. Bilmes, ‘The Financial Legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan: How Wartime Spending Decisions Will Constrain Future National Security Budgets’, Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Research Working Paper Series, March 2013.

  73R. Gates, Memoirs of a Secretary at War (New York, 2014), p. 577.

  74‘How is Hamid Karzai Still Standing?’, New York Times, 20 November 2013.

  75‘Memorandum for President Bush: Strategic Thoughts’, National Security Archive.

  76‘“Rapid Reaction Media Team” Concept’, US Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, 16 January 2003, National Security Archive.

  77M. Phillips, ‘Cheney Says He was Proponent for Military Action against Iran’, Wall Street Journal, 30 August 2009.

  78‘Kerry presses Iran to prove its nuclear program peaceful’, Reuters, 19 November 2013.

  79‘Full Text: Al-Arabiya Interview with John Kerry’, 23 January 2014, www.alarabiya.com.

  80President Obama, ‘Remarks by the President at AIPAC Policy Conference’, 4 March 2012, White House.

  81D. Sanger, ‘Obama Order Sped Up Wave of Cyber-Attacks against Iran’, New York Times, 1 June 2012; idem, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York, 2012).

  Conclusion: The New Silk Road

  1B. Gelb, Caspian Oil and Gas: Production and Prospects (2006); BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006; PennWell Publishing Company, Oil & Gas Journal, 19 December 2005; Energy Information Administration, Caspian Sea Region: Survey of Key Oil and Gas Statistics and Forecasts, July 2006; ‘National Oil & Gas Assessment’, US Geological Survey (2005).

  2T. Klett, C. Schenk, R. Charpentier, M. Brownfield, J. Pitman, T. Cook and M. Tennyson, ‘Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Volga-Ural Region Province, Russia and Kazakhstan’, US Geological Service (2010), pp. 3095–6.