The Last Warrior

by Andrew F. Krepinevich

UCLA

  University of California–Los Angeles

  USAFE

  US Air Forces in Europe

  USD(P)

  undersecretary of defense position for policy

  USSBS

  US Strategic Bombing Survey

  WARBO

  “Warning and Bombing” [study]

  WEI/WUV

  Weighted Effectiveness Indices/Weighted Unit Values

  WMD

  weapon of mass destruction

  NOTES

  Chapter 1: A Self-Educated Man, 1921–1949

  1. Ford Madox Ford, The March of Literature: From Confucius’ Day to Our Own (New York: The Dial Press, 1938).

  2. Richard Courant and Herbert Robbins, What Is Mathematics? An Elementary Approach to Ideas and Methods, 4 vols. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1941).

  3. A Study of History: 2nd edition [1st edition, 1934] (London: Oxford University Press, 1945), vols. 1–3; vols. 4–6 published in 1939, reprinted in 1940; and A Study of History, abridgment of vols. 7–10 by D. C. Somervell (New York: Oxford University Press, 1957).

  4. “Murray Body Corp.; Murray Corp. of America,” available at http://www.coachbuilt.com/bui/m/murray/murray.htm.

  5. Andrew W. Marshall, “A Test of Klein’s Model III for Changes of Structure,” master of arts thesis submitted to the faculty of the Department of Economics, University of Chicago, March 1949, 29.

  6. F. A. Hayek and W. W. Bartley III, ed., The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism (Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press and Routledge, 1988), 14.

  7. A. W. Marshall, “Early Life to 1949,” interview by Kurt Guthe, January 13, 1994, 1–16. (The reference “1–16” refers to page 16 of the transcript of the first of twelve taped interviews Guthe did with Marshall.)

  Chapter 2: Early RAND Years, 1949–1960

  1. Angus Maddison, “Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1–2003 AD,” 2007, available at http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/historical_statistics/horizontal-file_03–2007.xls.

  2. Stewart M. Powell, “The Berlin Airlift,” AIR FORCE Magazine, June 1998, 50–63.

  3. Harry R. Borowski, “A Narrow Victory: the Berlin Blockade and the American Military Response,” Air University Review, July–August 1981, available at http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/borowski.htm, accessed November 16, 2013.

  4. S. Nelson Drew, ed., NSC-68: Forging the Strategy of Containment (Washington, DC: National Defense University, September 1994), 23.

  5. X [George Kennan], “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” Foreign Affairs 25, no. 4, July 1947, 575.

  6. Steven J. Zaloga, The Kremlin’s Nuclear Sword: The Rise and Fall of Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces, 1945–2000 (Washington and London: Smithsonian Institution Press, 2002), 10.

  7. Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and Its Proliferation (Minneapolis, MN: Zenith Press, 2009), 34–35.

  8. Walter Isaacson and Evan Thomas, The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1986), 489–90, 495–97.

  9. Robert R. Bowie and Richard H. Immerman, Waging Peace: How Eisenhower Shaped an Enduring Cold War Strategy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), 16–17.

  10. George Orwell, “You and the Atomic Bomb,” Tribune, October 19, 1945, available at http://orwell.ru/library/articles/ABomb/english/e_abomb.

  11. Vannevar Bush, foreword in Irvin Stewart, Organizing Scientific Research for War: The Administrative History of the Office of Scientific Research and Development (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1948), ix.

  12. James Phinney Baxter, III, Scientists Against Time (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1946), 31–36.

  13. C. J. Hitch, amended by J. R. Goldstein, “RAND: Its History, Organization and Character,” Project RAND, B-200, July 20, 1960, 1–2.

  14. Hitch “RAND: Its History, Organization and Character,” 4.

  15. Ibid., 3–4.

  16. Ibid., 5.

  17. Ibid., 7.

  18. “Conference of Social Scientists: September 14 to 19, 1947—New York,” RAND R-106, vii–viii.

  19. Hitch, “RAND: Its History, Organization and Character,” 8.

  20. RAND, “History and Mission,” available at http://www.rand.org/about/history/, accessed November 16, 2013.

  21. Andrew W. Marshall, “Strategy as a Profession in the Future Security Environment,” in Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, Robert Zarate and Henry Sokolski, eds. (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, January 2009), 628.

  22. Bernard Brodie, “The Development of Nuclear Strategy,” International Security Spring 1978, 67.

  23. Henry S. Rowen, “Commentary: How He Worked” in Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, Robert Zarate and Henry Sokolski, eds. (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, January 2009), 101.

  24. A. W. Marshall, “Talk for Book Project,” interview by Kurt Guthe, September 16, 1993, 11–4.

  25. A. W. Marshall, “1950–1969,” interview by Kurt Guthe, October 29, 1993, 3–39; A. W. Marshall, “Second Talk on Themes” interview by Kurt Guthe, October 6, 1995, 12–26.

  26. Alan L. Gropman, “Mobilizing U.S. Industry in World War II,” McNair Paper 50, National Defense University, August 1996, 109; and Maddison, “Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1–2003 AD.”

  27. Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller), “National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2015,” April 2014, table 7–5, 254.

  28. Herbert Goldhamer and Andrew Marshall, Psychosis and Civilization: Studies in the Frequency of Mental Disease (Glencoe, IL: The Free Press, 1949, 1953), 91–93.

  29. Hitch, “RAND: Its History, Organization and Character,” 3.

  30. A. W. Marshall, interview with Barry D. Watts, April 12, 2011, 6–7.

  31. Reed and Stillman, The Nuclear Express, 36.

  32. Ibid., 37.

  33. “Implications of Large-Yield Nuclear Weapons,” RAND R-237, July 10, 1952, 1–2.

  34. Gian P. Gentile, “Planning for Preventive War, 1945–1950,” Joint Force Quarterly, Spring 2000, 69.

  35. Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Global Nuclear Weapons Inventories, 1945–2013,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2013, 78. Kristensen and Norris believe that United States had only 170 atomic weapons in 1949. However, the US stockpile expanded rapidly, growing to over 1,100 weapons in 1953 and peaking at over 31,000 in 1967.

  36. A. W. Marshall, “Early 1950s,” interview by Kurt Guthe, September 16, 1993, 4–5.

  37. Marc Trachtenberg, History and Strategy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991), 7–8.

  38. J. D. Williams, “Hunting the Tiger (and Other Aspects of the Active Life),” RAND S-16, March 25, 1954, 31–32.

  39. Neil Sheehan, A Fiery Peace in a Cold War: Bernard Schriever and the Ultimate Weapon (New York: Random House, 2009), 181.

  40. Bernard Brodie, “A Moratorium on Similes,” memorandum to J. D. Williams, M-5484, November 1, 1954, 1.

  41. Roger G. Miller, To Save a City: The Berlin Airlift 1948–1949 (Washington DC: Air Force History Support Office, 1998), 18.

  42. Ibid., 16–17.

  43. Gregory W. Pedlow, ed., NATO Strategy Documents 1949–1969 (Brussels: Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, October 1997), xii.

  44. Sheehan, A Fiery Peace in a Cold War, 193.

  45. H. Kahn and A. W. Marshall, “Methods of Reducing Sample Size in Monte Carlo Computations,” Journal of the Operations Research Society of American (November 1953): 263–78.

  46. Marc Peter Jr. and Andrew Marshall, “A Re-examination of Hiroshima-Nagasaki Damage Data,” RAND RM-820, May 1, 1952, 1–4.

  47. Marshall, “1950–1969,” interview by Guthe, 3–11.

  48. Bernard Brodie, ed., with Frederick S. Dunn, Arnold Wolfers, Percey E. Corbett, and William T. R. Fox, The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World
Order (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1946), 74.

  49. Bernard Brodie, “Strategy Hits a Dead End,” Harper’s Magazine, October 1955, 36.

  50. Marshall, “1950–1969,” interview by Guthe, 3–22.

  51. Robert R. Bowie and Richard H. Immerman, Waging Peace: How Eisenhower Shaped an Enduring Cold War Strategy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), 137; and B. Brodie, C. J. Hitch, and A. W. Marshall, “The Next Ten Years,” RAND, December 30, 1954, 27–28.

  52. Brodie, Hitch, and Marshall, “The Next Ten Years,” 3–9.

  53. Ibid., 10.

  54. Ibid., 16.

  55. A. J. Wohlstetter, F. S. Hoffman, R. J. Lutz, and H. S. Rowen, Selection and Use of Strategic Air Bases, RAND R-266, April 1954, x.

  56. Ibid., vii. R-266 estimated, accurately, that the Soviets would have around four hundred atomic bombs in 1956 (Ibid., 271).

  57. Ibid., vi–viii, xxxvii.

  58. Ibid., vii.

  59. Andrew D. May, “The RAND Corporation and the Dynamics of American Strategic Thought, 1946–1962,” unpublished revision of PhD dissertation as of July 2003, chap. 4, 21.

  60. E. S. Quade, “Principles and Procedures of Systems Analysis,” in Quade’s edited volume Analysis for Military Decisions (Santa Monica, CA: RAND R-387-PR, November 1964), 37.

  61. Henry S. Rowen, “Commentary: How He Worked,” in Nuclear Heuristics, ed. Zarate and Sokolski, 116.

  62. Marshall, “Strategy as a Profession in the Future Security Environment,” in Nuclear Heuristics, ed. Zarate and Sokolski, 629–30.

  63. May, “The RAND Corporation and the Dynamics of American Strategic Thought, 1946–1962,” chap. 2, 13.

  64. Wohlstetter et al., Selection and Use of Strategic Air Bases, v.

  65. Brodie, Hitch, and Marshall, “The Next Ten Years,” 38.

  66. Ibid., 37.

  67. Ibid., 39.

  68. J. D. Williams, “Unkind Comments on the Next Ten Years,” memo to B. Brodie, C. J. Hitch, A. W. Marshall, RAND M-4419, September 2, 1954, 1.

  69. Ibid., 1.

  70. Roberta Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1962), xi.

  71. National Security Agency, “Professional Reading: Books Briefly Noted,” 123, n.d., accessed at http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/_files/tech_journals/book_review_pearl_harbor.pdf (emphasis in the original).

  72. Dr. Alfred Goldberg and Maurice Matloff, OSD Historical Office, “Oral History Interviews, Director, Net Assessment,” June 1, 1992, 5.

  73. Roberta Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor, 401.

  74. Ibid., viii–ix.

  75. Dennis Hevesi, “Roberta Wohlstetter, 94, Military Policy Analyst, Dies,” New York Times, January 11, 2007, accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/11/obituaries/11wohlstetter.html?_r=0.

  76. James C. DeHaven, “The Soviet Strategic Base Problem,” RAND RM-1302, August 16, 1954, vii.

  77. A. W. Marshall, “Improvement in Intelligence Estimates Through Study of Organizational Behavior,” RAND D-16858, March 15, 1968, 1.

  78. Security Resources Panel of the Science Advisory Committee, “Deterrence and Survival in the Nuclear Age,” Washington, DC, November 7, 1957, 1.

  79. Ibid., 4.

  80. Zaloga, The Kremlin’s Nuclear Sword, 50.

  81. Security Resources Panel, “Deterrence and Survival in the Nuclear Age,” 11.

  82. Herbert Goldhamer and Andrew W. Marshall, “The Deterrence and Strategy of Total War, 1959–1961: A Method of Analysis,” RAND RM-2301, April 30, 1959, iv.

  83. Ibid., vii.

  84. Ibid., vi, 189.

  85. Richard Nixon, “Policy for Planning the Employment of Nuclear Weapons,” National Security Decision Memorandum 242, January 17, 1974, 2.

  Chapter 3: The Quest for Better Analytic Methods, 1961–1969

  1. Frances Acomb, Statistical Control in the Army Air Forces (Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: Air University, January 1952), 1.

  2. Acomb, Statistical Control in the Army Air Forces, 95.

  3. John A. Byrne, The Whiz Kids: Ten Founding Fathers of American Business—and the Legacy They Left Us (New York: Doubleday Business, 2008), 39–44.

  4. Charles R. Shrader, History of Operations Research in the US Army, Vol. II, 1961–1973 (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2008), Center for Military History Publication 70–105–1, 17.

  5. Phil Rosenzweig, “Robert S. McNamara and the Evolution of Modern Management,” Harvard Business Review, December 2010, 3.

  6. Tim Weiner, “Robert S, McNamara, Architect of a Futile War, Dies at 93,” New York Times, July 6, 2009, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/us/07mcnamara.html?pagewanted=all, accessed December 7, 2013.

  7. Byrne, The Whiz Kids, 13–16, 80–86.

  8. Ibid., 17–19.

  9. Ibid., 107, 108, 365.

  10. Ibid., 171–73, 206, 228.

  11. Ibid., 213, 229.

  12. Ibid., 143–48.

  13. “Robert S. McNamara Oral History Interview,” Arthur M. Schlesinger (interviewer), April 4, 1964, 6–8, available at http://archive2.jfklibrary.org/JFKOH/McNamara,%20Robert%20S/JFKOH-RSM-01/JFKOH-RSM-01-TR.pdf, accessed December 7, 2013.

  14. Alain C. Enthoven and K. Wayne Smith, How Much Is Enough? Shaping the Defense Program, 1961–1969 (New York: Harper and Row, 1971), 325; and John A. Byrne, The Whiz Kids: Ten Founding Fathers of American Business—and the Legacy They Left Us (New York: Doubleday Business, 2008), 396–400.

  15. Enthoven and Smith, How Much Is Enough?, 32–33.

  16. Stephen Budiansky, Blackett’s War: The Men Who Defeated the Nazi U-Boats and Brought Science to the Art of War (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2013), 221–226.

  17. For in-depth accounts of RAND’s approach to systems analysis, see E. S. Quade, ed., Analysis for Military Decisions (Santa Monica, CA: RAND R-387-PR, November 1964); and E. S. Quade and W. I. Boucher, eds., Systems Analysis and Policy Planning: Applications in Defense (Santa Monica, CA: RAND R-439-PR, June 1968). Both can be downloaded from RAND’s website.

  18. RAND, “50th: Project Air Force 1946–1996,” 1996, 23.

  19. Charles J. Hitch, “Decision-Making in the Defense Department,” Gaither Memorial Lectures, University of California, April 5–9, 1965, 15–18.

  20. Ibid., 19. An outline for what became PPBS can be found in Charles J. Hitch and Roland N. McKean, The Economics of Defense in the Nuclear Age (Santa Monica, CA: Project RAND R-346, March 1960), 54–59.

  21. Hitch, “Decision-Making in the Defense Department,” 28.

  22. The Office of Systems Analysis became the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation (PA&E) in 1973 and PA&E was renamed the Office of Cost Analysis and Program Evaluation (CAPE) in 2009.

  23. Charles J. Hitch and Roland N. McKean, with contributions by Stephen Enke, Malcolm W. Hoag, Alain Enthoven, C. B. McGuire, and Albert Wohlstetter, The Economics of Defense in the Nuclear Age (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960), 23.

  24. Hitch, “Decision-Making in the Defense Department,” 28.

  25. James R. Schlesinger, The Political Economy of National Security: A Study of the Economic Aspects of the Contemporary Power Struggle (New York: Praeger, 1960).

  26. “Interview with James R. Schlesinger,” February 8, 2006, in Barry D. Watts, “Interviews and Materials on the Intellectual History of Diagnostic Net Assessment,” July 2006, 97.

  27. R. Nelson and J. Schlesinger, “A Long-Range Basic Research Program for the Department,” RAND M-6527, September 10, 1963, 1. This memo was addressed to Gustave H. Shubert, who had succeeded Burton Klein as head of RAND’s Economics Department. Copies went to Marshall, Klein, and McKean. Mai Elliot, RAND in Southeast Asia: A History of the Vietnam War Era (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2010), xx.

  28. Nelson and Schlesinger, “A Long-Range Basic Research Program for the Department,” 2.

  29. James R. Schlesinger, “On Relating Non-Technical Elements to Systems Studies,” RAND P-3545, February 1967, 1.

  30. Ibi
d., 1

  31. Ibid., 2.

  32. James R. Schlesinger, “Uses and Abuses of Analysis,” in Selected Papers on National Security 1964–1968 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND P-5284, September 1974), 106.

  33. Enthoven and Smith, How Much Is Enough?, xii.

  34. James March and Herbert Simon, with the collaboration of Harold Guetzkow, Organizations (Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 2nd ed. 1993, 1st ed. 1958), 3.

  35. March and Simon, Organizations, 4.

  36. Richard M. Cyert and James March, A Behavioral Theory of the Firm (Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 2nd ed. 1992), xi–xii, 120–22, 214–15.

  37. Herbert A. Simon, “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice,” RAND P-365, January 20, 1953. Also Herbert A. Simon, “Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment,” Psychological Review 63, no. 2 (1956): 129.

  38. A. W. Marshall, “1950–1969,” interview by Kurt Guthe, October 29, 1993, 3–27.

  39. Ibid., 3–28.

  40. Burton H. Klein, Germany’s Economic Preparations for War (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1959).

  41. “Burton H. Klein, 92,” available at http://www.caltech.edu/content/burton-h-klein-92, accessed December 11, 2013.

  42. A. W. Marshall, discussion with Barry Watts, July 17, 2013.

  43. Ibid.

  44. Joseph Bower, e-mail to Barry Watts, July 8, 2013.

  45. A. W. Marshall, “The Formative Period of the Office of Net Assessment,” OSD/NA memorandum for Andrew May and Barry Watts, September 3, 2002,” 3.

  46. Robert Ardrey, The Territorial Imperative: A Personal Inquiry into the Anima Origins of Property and Nations (New York: Atheneum, 1968), ix, 333, 337.

  47. Konrad Lozenz, On Aggression, trans. Marjorie Kerr Wilson (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, 1966), x, 237, 243, 271, 276, 333, 337.

  48. Richard E. Neustadt, Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan (New York: The Free Press, 1990), 11.

  49. Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1971), 67.

  50. Ibid., 88–90.

  51. Ibid.

  52. Dennis Hevesi, “Roberta Wohlstetter, 94, Military Policy Analyst, Dies,” New York Times, January 11, 2007.