The Last Warrior
Page 41
78. Ibid.
79. For details on the RMA essay contest, see Joint Force Quarterly, Spring 1994, 31; and Joint Force Quarterly, Summer 1994, 58.
80. See Jan M. van Tol, “Military Innovation and Carrier Aviation—The Relevant History,” Joint Force Quarterly, Summer 1997, 77–87; and Jan M. van Tol, “Military Innovation and Carrier Aviation—An Analysis,” Joint Force Quarterly, Winter 1997–98, 97–109.
81. James FitzSimonds, memo Jan van Tol commenting on van Tol’s “Brief on Early RMA Gaming Insights,” July 17, 1995, For an overview of RMA war gaming through the late 1990s, see William J. Hurley, Dennis J. Gleeson, Jr., Col. Stephen J. McNamara and Joel B. Resnick, “Summaries of Recent Futures Wargames,” Joint Advanced Warfighting Program, Institute for Defense Analyses, October 21, 1998.
82. From 2007 to 2011 Vickers was the first and only assistant secretary of defense for special operations/low-intensity & interdependent capabilities (ASD SO/LIC&IC).
83. George Crile, Charlie Wilson’s War: The Extraordinary Story of the Largest Covert Operation in American History (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2003).
84. Upon retiring, Krepinevich became director of an organization called the Defense Budget Project (DBP). Drawing upon what he had learned from Marshall during his service in ONA, he recast it into the Center for Strategic and Budgetory Assessments to address issues of strategic importance.
85. The Fellows program was established in DoD Directive 1322.23, September 2, 1995.
86. A. W. Marshall, “The Character of Future Net Assessments,” memorandum for distribution, June 10, 1996, 1.
87. Ibid., 3.
88. Ibid., 4.
Chapter 9: The Pivot to the Asia-Pacific Region, 2001–2014
1. A. W. Marshall, “The Character of Future Net Assessments,” 2.
2. Marshall, “The Character of Future Net Assessment,” 4.
3. Andrew May, e-mail to Barry Watts, August 23, 2002.
4. A. W. Marshall, “Further Thoughts on Future Net Assessments,” OSD/NA memorandum, May 9, 2000 (revised September 11, 2000), 2.
5. Marshall, “Further Thoughts on Future Net Assessments,” 3.
6. Besides Marshall and Watts, the participants included: Aaron Friedberg (Princeton University), Karl Hasslinger (General Dynamics Electric Boat), Andrew Krepinevich (CSBA), Bob Martinage (CSBA), Andrew May (SAIC), Chip Pickett (Northrop Grumman), Steve Rosen (Harvard University) and Jan van Tol (OSD/NA). Invited but unable to attend were Eliot Cohen, Gene Durbin (who provided inputs via e-mail), and Jaymie Durnan (then Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz’s special assistant).
7. Barry Watts, transcript excerpts from the ONA workshop on the future role and focus of the Office of Net Assessment, March 11, 2003, 25.
8. A. W. Marshall, “Refocusing Net Assessment for the Future,” OSD/NA memorandum for distribution, June 10, 2004, 2–3.
9. Ibid., 3–4.
10. Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Memoir, 293.
11. A. W. Marshall, “Defense Strategy Review (Short Outline),” February 23, 2001, 2.
12. Barry Watts, notes from a telephone conversation with Karl Hasslinger, March 22, 2001.
13. Ibid.
14. Marshall, “Defense Strategy Review (Short Outline),” 2.
15. Marshall and Roche, “Strategy for Competing with the Soviets in the Military Sector of the Continuing Political-Military Competition,” 9–10.
16. C. K. Prahalad and Gary Hamel, “The Core Competence of the Corporation,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1990, 83.
17. Andrew May in Watts, “Transcript Excerpts from the OSD/NA Workshop on the Future Role and Focus of the Office of Net Assessment,” March 11, 2003, 22.
18. Marshall, “Defense Strategy Review (Short Outline),” 2.
19. Barry Watts, notes from discussion with A. W. Marshall and Andrew May, March 18, 2003.
20. Barry D. Watts, “Barriers to Acting Strategically: Why Strategy Is So Difficult,” in Developing Competitive Strategies for the 21st Century: Theory, History, and Practice, Thomas G. Mahnken, ed. (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2012), 50, 52–53.
21. Patrick E. Tyler, “U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop: A One-Superpower World,” New York Times, March 8, 1992.
22. Eric Edelman, “The Strange Career of the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance,” in In Uncertain Times: American Foreign Policy after the Berlin Wall and 9/11, by Melvyn P. Leffer and Jeffrey W. Legro (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2011), 65.
23. Tyler, “U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop: A One-Superpower World.”
24. Edelman, “The Strange Career of the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance,” 64.
25. “Defense Planning Guidance, FY 1994–1999,” draft March 20, 1992, declassified December 10, 2007, 3, 5.
26. DoD, “Quadrennial Defense Review Report,” September 30, 2001, iv, 12. For more comprehensive account of dissuasion as a strategy, see Andrew F. Krepinevich and Robert C. Martinage, Dissuasion Strategy (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2008), 1–6.
27. Aaron L. Friedberg, “The Struggle for Mastery in Asia,” Commentary, November 2000, 26.
28. Andrew W. Marshall, “Near Term Actions to Begin Shift of Focus Towards Asia,” OSD/NA memo for the secretary of defense, May 2, 2002, 1.
29. Ibid., 2.
30. US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2011 Report to Congress, 112th Congress, First Session, November 2011, 182–93.
31. John A. Battilega, “Soviet Military Art: Some Major Asymmetries Important to Net Assessment,” unpublished paper presented at the March 28–29, 2008, conference “Net Assessment: Past, Present, and Future.”
32. Michael Pillsbury, ed., Chinese Views of Future Warfare (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, rev. ed. 1998), xvii.
33. Ibid., xxxiv, xlii.
34. Ibid., 317.
35. Ibid., 326.
36. Yuan Wenxian, chief ed., [Lectures on Joint Campaign Information Operations] (Beijing: National Defense University Press, November 2009, 1–11; Bryan Krekel, Patton Adams, and George Bakos, Occupying the Information High Ground: Chinese Capabilities for Computer Network Operations and Cyber Espionage (Washington: Northrop Grumman Corporation, March 7, 2012), 14–20.
37. Information Office of the State Council, PRC, “The Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces,” April 2013, section 2, available at http://eng.mod.gov.cn/Database/WhitePapers/index.htm, accessed August 13, 2013.
38. Mark A. Stokes and Ian Easton, “The Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Staff: Evolving Organization and Missions,” unpublished draft November 26, 2012, 15, 19, 26.
39. Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment (Washington, DC: NDV Press, 2000), xv, 67–68.
40. Ibid., xxxv.
41. François Jullien, A Treatise on Efficacy: Between Western and Chinese Thinking, trans. by Janet Lloyd (Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press, 2004), 15.
42. Ibid., 17.
43. Aaron L. Friedberg, “A History of the US Strategic Doctrine—1945–1980,” Journal of Strategic Studies, December 1980, 37–71.
44. Aaron L. Friedberg, The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905 (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 1988), 305.
45. Ibid., xv.
46. Aaron L. Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, American, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia (New York: W. W. Norton, 2011), xii.
47. Ibid., xiii–xiv.
48. Ibid., xv; and Aaron L. Friedberg, “The Struggle for Mastery in Asia,” 17.
49. Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, American, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, 144.
50. Timothy L. Thomas, Three Faces of the Cyber Dragon: Cyber Peace Activist, Spook, Hacker (Fort Leavenworth, KS: Foreign Military Studies Office, 2012), xiv, 66, 73, 89, 117, 119 223–35; Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment, xviii, 29
7, 299.
51. Admiral Jonathan Greenert and General Mark Welsh, “Breaking the Kill Chain: How to Keep American in the Game When Our Enemies Are Trying to Shut Us Out,” Foreign Policy, May 16, 2013, available at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/16/breaking_the_kill_chain_air_sea_battle?page=0,0, accessed February 18, 2014.
52. Donald Rumsfeld, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 6, 2006, 3, 9–10. 29–31, 32–33.
53. A. W. Marshall, handwritten notes for a dinner talk to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, June 2, 2008, 1–2.
Conclusion
1. A. W. Marshall, “Net Assessment in the Department of Defense,” ONA memo for record, September 21, 1976, 1.
2. A. W. Marshall, “1973–1980,” interview by Kurt Guthe, April 9, 1994, 6–41, 6–42.
3. “The Man Who Showed Why Firms Exist,” The Economist, September 7, 2013, 13–14.
4. Noel E. Firth and James H. Noren, Soviet Defense Spending: A History of CIA Estimates, 1950–1990 (College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press, 1998), 10.
5. A. W. Marshall, “Themes,” interview by Kurt Guthe, September 24, 1993, 10–3.
6. “Soviet Death Rate Rising; Alcoholism, Influenza Blamed,” Gadsden Times, August 31, 1982, 8.
7. James R. Schlesinger, “Uses and Abuses of Systems Analysis” in James R. Schlesinger, “Selected Papers on National Security 1964–1968,” RAND P-5284, September 1974, 107.
8. Ibid., 116.
9. A. W. Marshall, “Early 1950s,” interview by Kurt Guthe, September 16, 1993, 4–7.
10. Marshall, “Themes,” interview by Guthe, 10–6.
11. Herbert Simon, “Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment,” (Psychological Review 63, no. 2, 1956): 129.
12. Lionel Tiger and Robin Fox, The Imperial Animal (New Brunswick and London, Transaction Publishers, 1998), 17 (originally published in 1971 by Holt, Rinehart and Winston).
13. Daniel Kahneman, “Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice,” Nobel Prize Lecture, December 8, 2002, in Nobel Prizes 2002: Nobel Prizes, Presentations, Biographies, & Lectures, ed. Tore Frängsmyr (Stockholm: Almquiest & Wiksell, 2003), 449.
14. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science 185, no. 4157, September 27, 1974, 1130.
15. Robin Fox, “Aggression Then and Now” in Man and Beast Revisited, ed. Michael H. Robinson and Lionel Tiger (Washington and London: Smithsonian Institution Press, 1991), 92.
16. Robin Fox, “Fatal Attraction: War and Human Nature,” National Interest, Winter 1992/93, 20.
17. Douglass North, Understanding the Process of Economic Change (Princeton, NJ, and Oxford, UK: Princeton University Press, 2005), 19, 69.
18. Neil deGrasse Tyson, Death by Black Holes and Other Cosmic Quandaries (New York and London: W. W. Norton, 2007), 249–52.
19. Martin Shubik, “Terrorism, Technology, and the Socioeconomics of Death,” Comparative Strategy 16, 1997, 406–8.
20. Pierre Wack, “Scenarios: Unchartered Waters Ahead,” Harvard Business Review, September–October 1985, 73, 75; and Wack, “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids,” Harvard Business Review, November–December 1985, 10–11, 14. Kahn’s 1965 On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios is widely cited as the origins of scenario planning. In mid-1973 the price of a barrel of oil was $2.90; by December the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) was demanding $11.65. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power (New York: The Free Press, 1991), 607.
21. Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (New York: Doubleday Currency, 1991), 3.
22. Marshall, “Themes,” interview by Guthe, 10–14, 15.
23. Firth and Noren, Soviet Defense Spending: A History of CIA Estimates, 1950–1990, 59.
24. CIA/DIA “Gorbachev’s Modernization Program: A Status Report,” DDB-1900–140–87, August 1987, 8.
25. A. W. Marshall, letter to Richard Kaufman, Joint Economic Committee, US Congress, September 10, 1975, 1.
26. Barry Watts, notes from a discussion with A. W. Marshall, April 4, 1988, 3.
27. Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Memoir, 224–25.
28. Donald H. Rumsfeld, Annual Report to the President and the Congress, 2002, 2.
29. A. W. Marshall, OSD/NA memorandum for Fred Iklé, September 21, 1987, 3.
30. “Secretary Rumsfeld Delivers Major Speech on Transformation,” National Defense University, January 31, 2002, available at http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/dod/transformation-secdef-31jan02.htm, accessed January 27, 2014.
31. OSD, “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013,” i, 32–33.
32. Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment. See also, Michael Pillsbury, ed., Chinese Views of Future Warfare (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1998).
33. See Air-Sea Battle Office, “Air-Sea Battle: Service Collaboration to Address Anti-Access & Area Denial Challenges,” May 2013, available at http://navylive.dodlive.mil/files/2013/06/ASB-ConceptImplementation-Summary-May-2013.pdf, accessed June 7, 2013.
34. Barack Obama, “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,” January 2012, 2.
INDEX
Allison, Graham, 67, 177, 201, 215, 216
Competitive Strategies, 132, 166–167, 196
Essence of Decision (1971), 62–64, 184
Analytic Measures, 34–35, 57–58, 65, 136, 147–148, 195, 205, 260
Criterion Problem, 35, 38, 252–253, 254
See also Soviet Assessment, TASCFORM, War-Gaming, WEI/WUV
Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD), 207–209, 236, 238, 244, 264
Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW) Balance, 134
Ardrey, Robert, 61, 257–258
Arnold, General Henry H. H. “Hap,” 19
Aspin, Les, 214–218, 221
Assault Breaker, 219
See also Reconnaissance Strike Complex
Asymmetries, 58, 83, 100, 102, 115, 149, 216, 185
See also Military Technical Revolution (MTR), Reconnaissance Strike Complex
B-1, 130–132
B-2, 156, 162
B-52, 37, 48, 132
Badgett, Lee, 150
Battilega, John, 114–117, 137, 239, 242, 255
Berlin Airlift (1948–1949), 16
Birman, Igor, 150, 172–173, 255
Blue Ribbon Defense Panel (1970), 84, 86
Bounded Rationality, 59, 67, 251, 255
Bower, Joseph, 46, 61, 67, 87–88
Brodie, Bernard, 22, 28, 29, 30–31, 34, 38–40, 249
Brown, Harold, 97, 104, 121, 129–130, 139–140, 156, 158–159, 161, 219
Brown, Thomas, 137–139
Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 132–135, 175
Carter, Jimmy, 128–129, 153–154, 156, 165, 182
“Comprehensive Net Assessment and Military Force Posture Review” (1977), 132–136
Casey, William, 159, 163, 174
Cheney, Richard, 117, 210, 237
China, 193–194, 207–209, 236–244, 264
Cohen, Eliot, 177, 178, 179–180, 182–183, 185–186, 199, 201, 248
Cohen, William, 225, 263
Cold War’s End, 190–191, 193, 228–229
Collbohm, Frank, 19–20, 60
Command, Control, and Communications (C3) Balance, 148–149
Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy (CILTS), 175–176, 194–195, 154
Competitive Advantage, 40, 47, 58, 70, 89–90, 108, 114, 132, 199, 212–213, 233, 241, 258
Core competency, 234
Competitive Strategies, 132, 154–155, 158, 163, 166–168, 190, 238, 255, 261–262
See also Competitive Advantage
Constraints, 46, 56, 61, 68, 70, 111, 252–254
And Strategic Choice, 56
See also, Soviet Military Burden
Containment
Policy, 16–17, 38, 237, 245
Criterion Problem, 35, 38, 252–253, 254
Deterrence (Nuclear), 34, 36, 38–39, 48–50, 51, 61–62, 69–70, 112, 135–140, 148, 153, 190, 237, 254, 257
See also RAND Strategic Assessment System, Strategic Nuclear Balance, Soviet Assessment
Diagnosis versus Prescription, 17, 51, 91, 104, 121, 227, 250
Digby, James, 29, 34, 42, 43
Dupuy, Trevor, 147
Eisenhower, Dwight, 30, 35, 47, 50, 91, 245
Solarium Exercise (1953), 237
Enthoven, Alain, 55–56, 58
See also Systems Analysis
Epstein, David, 150, 171–172
Epstein, Joshua, 180–182, 186, 187–189
Essential Equivalence, 136
European Military Balance, 141–148, 177, 179–189
Feshbach, Murray, 253–255
Fitzhugh, Gilbert, 84
Fox, Robin, 258
Friction (Clausewitzian), 115, 222
Friedberg, Aaron, 177, 178–179, 196, 238, 242–243, 248
Future Security Environment, 193–194, 202, 226, 244–245
Gaither Commission Report (1957), 46–48
Gaither, H. Rowan, 46
Gates, Robert, 174, 235
Goldhamer, Herbert, 14, 22–24, 26, 40, 42, 102, 260
Goodpaster, General Andrew, 82, 175
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 190, 202
“The Deterrence and Strategy of Total War,” 1959–1961,” 49–50
Gough, Robert, 150, 171
Hasslinger, Karl, 232–233
Herman, Mark, 168–169
Hitch, Charles, 21, 22, 28, 31, 34, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 42, 59, 60, 249
And Marshall, 25–26, 33, 34
As McNamara’s Comptroller, 54–56
Resource Constraints, 252–253
Huntington, Samuel, 133–134, 175, 178, 211, 242
Hydrogen Bomb, 17, 26–28, 31–32
Iklé, Fred, 62, 157, 166, 176, 190, 193–194, 226
Discriminate Deterrence, 175–176
Use of ONA under Weinberger, 158
Innovation, 19, 175, 178, 194–195, 201, 204–206, 211, 217–220, 221–222, 223, 251
In Business, 212–214
Joe-1, 17, 31
Johnson, Lyndon, 74, 81
Kahn, Herman, 26–27, 32, 33, 34, 40, 259
Kahneman, Daniel, 258
Karber, Phillip, 101, 110–111, 113, 117