Lethal Trajectories

by Michael Conley

  Thank goodness for the television footage, because he could remember very little of the actual ceremony; he had been too preoccupied with his Geneva meetings to fully absorb the enormity of the moment. Strangely, he remembered the more inconsequential things, like the tears in Maggie’s eyes, the trickles of sweat on President Burkmeister’s face, and the big brown coffee stain on his white shirt, which he had tried (unsuccessfully) to cover with his suit jacket.

  He also remembered Clayton’s brief remarks following the ceremony, the most noteworthy being his nomination of Elizabeth Cartright to step up as vice president. The ceremony itself couldn’t have lasted more than twenty minutes—it was only 12:45 when now-former President Burkmeister was whisked off to Walter Reed. Jack was glad to have had the chance to shake Burkmeister’s hand and receive his much-appreciated good wishes. Clayton was right, Jack thought, he was—no, is—a class act.

  After the swearing-in ceremony, Jack had joined the others in the Situation Room to complete the preparations for his trip. “Have you settled yet on who you’ll be taking with you, Jack?” Clayton had asked, looking harried.

  “Well, Peng and I both agreed that a large contingent would be counterproductive to this kind of high-level positioning meeting. The working details should be developed only after we’ve settled on a framework and a few guiding principles. We’re limiting it to five attendees each, including ourselves. Peng and I felt we could handle the energy and environmental aspects of the agenda, but we’ll need expertise in the military, intelligence, economic, and geopolitical arenas.”

  After a short discussion on the attendees who would accompany Jack, Clayton looked at CIA Director Mullen and asked, “What’s the latest on the Prince Khalid situation, Tony?”

  “Jack’s meeting is set for ten in the morning tomorrow, Geneva time, Mr. President. He will be allowed to take two CIA bodyguards with him. They will rendezvous with Prince Khalid’s security people and be taken to a secret location. We are still fine-tuning the details.”

  “That means we’ll be out of touch with Jack for a period of time. Will he be safe?” Clayton asked.

  “We believe so, but there’s always an element of risk in a clandestine meeting of this nature,” Mullen answered.

  “What do you think, Jack?” Clayton asked, concerned.

  “This is an unusual situation, but I believe the risks are worth taking,” Jack replied. “The CIA gave me their dossier on Prince Khalid, and he sounds like a legitimate contact.”

  He didn’t remember when Clayton had left the meeting, but he recalled the dash to Andrews Air Force base to catch his plane—glad that he had packed his bags the night before. He’d met his entourage at the base, and they boarded the plane shortly thereafter. He advised them they would meet in the special conference room on the plane thirty minutes after takeoff to prepare for the meeting in Geneva.

  As he gazed out the window at the moonlit Atlantic Ocean miles below, he reflected on the improbable alliances formed throughout history to defeat a common enemy. An amateur historian, he wondered what it must have been like for a couple of capitalists like Churchill and Roosevelt to team up with an old Bolshevik like Joseph Stalin to defeat a common enemy, or how difficult it must have been for General Dwight Eisenhower to maintain a workable alliance with prima donnas like George Patton, Bernard Montgomery, and Charles de Gaulle. Did historical circumstances produce great leaders, or was it great leaders who made extraordinary historical events happen? Either way, he had to keep touchy personalities and old tapes of China out of it and concentrate on the common enemy. He had advised his four-man cadre of exactly that imperative shortly after taking off.

  “Gentlemen,” he had said, “we’re about to be part of an historic meeting that your children will read about in decades to come. You’ve been briefed on our mission, and I won’t dwell on administrative details. Instead, I’ll share a few thoughts on the tone I’d like us to take.

  “I want you to approach this meeting with the big picture in mind. We’re there to establish a beachhead, not write an operator’s manual. Don’t get hung up on dogma or details. Our job is to sketch out a blueprint that others can fill in later and to work out a common vision with China. The tone we set—a collaborative and flexible approach regardless of past differences—will be as important as content in setting the future direction of our alliance. Am I totally clear on this?” They had all nodded, and Jack continued.

  “Good, now let me share with you some of the things we discussed at the NSC meeting earlier today.” They were sharp guys, and for the next two hours they discussed potential platforms for erecting and activating the new alliance. He had dismissed them with orders to get some sleep, if they could.

  As the featureless Atlantic Ocean slid by beneath him, he knew he should follow his own orders and get a little shuteye before touchdown, but his mind refused to obey. He was not uncomfortable meeting with the Chinese—mainly because of his friendship with Wang Peng—but his covert meeting with Prince Khalid was another matter.

  He reminded himself that Clayton had assigned him merely to assess the mettle and legitimacy of Prince Khalid and set the hooks for future dialogue and collaboration; it was not his job to decide whether or not the United States would team up with the man. This, at least, was a comfort to him.

  As he drifted closer to sleep, he wondered at how his life had changed so dramatically over a short period of time. His preoccupation with climate-change and the world’s energy problems had expanded into a far broader geopolitical context. I shouldn’t be surprised, really, he mused. I’ve been watching these threat multipliers for years, and now they’re about to become part of the perfect storm Clayton described. Heaven help us.

  He slid into a nightmarish dream starring himself as a climatologist by the name of James Bond tracking down an Arab version of Dr. No. He woke up, sweating, just as the wheels touched down at Geneva International Airport. Whew, only a dream, he thought, but sometimes reality can be stranger than dreams.

  45

  The Situation Room

  11 October 2017

  With less than two hours remaining on his night watch in the Situation Room, Lt. Colonel Winthrop Taylor began his routine of assimilating data for the president’s Morning Book. It, along with the President’s Daily Brief from the CIA, would be among the first reports read by the president in the morning. While there was an intelligence overlap in this procedure, Taylor assumed President McCarty would follow the same routine as his predecessor.

  He had been instructed to pay particular attention to activities related to the Safe Harbors operation, and his report was shaping up to be a big one.

  Israel: Showing undeniable signs of deploying nuclear assets. Activities include:

  Various stages of movement from 6 Dolphin II-class submarines, carrying capacity of 7-10 nuclear tipped cruise missiles with a nautical range of 900–1400 miles. Two Dolphin submarines are at sea in the Mediterranean; two appear to be ready to leave the Port of Haifa; one is on patrol in the Persian Gulf and one appears to be ready to leave the port city of Eilat on the Red Sea.

  Satellite observations indicate stepped-up activity near Israel’s Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona, including deployments of Patriot batteries and other surface-to-air missile defense systems.

  Stepped-up activities have been observed near the Jericho IV ICBM missile silos. The Jericho IV has an intercontinental range and can deliver a half-megaton warhead with pinpoint accuracy.

  Armored units are amassing in the southern Negev Desert for possible deployment against Saudi Arabia.

  Possibilities: Israel may be preparing for a nuclear confrontation using their second-strike capabilities. Their nuclear arsenal and delivery systems could sustain a first-strike attack by both Saudi Arabia and Iran and still have enough left to totally obliterate both countries.

  Saudi Arabia: The Saudis deployed two additional armored brigades on the southwestern border of the UAE. They have reinforced units alon
g the borders of Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan at the point closest to Israel. They have also conducted three cruise missile demonstration tests near the borders of Qatar and Kuwait.

  Possibilities: The Saudis have now deployed most of their armor. The reinforcements near the UAE might indicate a threat to the Strait of Hormuz. A fast armored strike could reach Abu Dhabi in one day and the Strait of Hormuz in two. (20% of the world’s daily oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz.) The cruise missile demonstrations may be designed to show the Gulf countries how easy it would be to launch a dirty-bomb attack on their oil fields.

  Iran: The Iranian mobilization for war is now well underway. Their nuclear facilities show increased activity of an unknown nature, and several armored columns have amassed across the river from Basra. Iranian intercepts indicate a growing concern with Saudi military buildups near several Gulf states.

  Possibilities: The movement of Iranian armored units near Basra indicates a growing concern with Saudi armored buildups near Kuwait. While activities near Iran’s nuclear facilities could be a reaction to the Saudi threat, a strike against Israel cannot be ruled out. Iran’s nuclear arsenal could easily cripple Saudi Arabia, but Iran would be annihilated in a counterstrike if they launched a first-strike attack against Israel.

  Oil Estimates: Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE continue to honor the Saudi oil embargo by cutting back on oil shipments, but the recent speech by Prince Khalid may be changing attitudes. About a third of their tankers at sea at the beginning of the crisis have returned to port with their cargos. Collectively, and in conjunction with Saudi Arabia, these nations control almost 25% of the world’s current oil supply. At least three other OPEC countries are on the fence about whether and how to honor the Saudi oil embargo request as of midnight, October 10.

  Possibilities: At present, it is too early to tell exactly what percentage of OPEC oil will be taken off the market on a semipermanent basis, but it could fall somewhere in the 20-25% range.

  Winthrop Taylor had stood many watches before but could not recall a time when the scope, volume, and velocity of incoming intelligence information had been as intense. While the intelligence puzzle was far from complete, the picture it was starting to paint was dire.

  46

  Geneva, Switzerland

  11 October 2017

  On an overcast, drizzly Geneva morning, the unmarked plane inched its way into a hangar, then shut down its engines as the giant doors were hastily closed.

  Through his window, Jack McCarty glimpsed three identical limousines, each with smoked glass windows, waiting inside the hangar. He didn’t know why there were three cars, but thus far this had been strictly a CIA-directed operation, and he deferred to the pair of husky CIA bodyguards assigned to him.

  His four-member delegation was whisked into one limo that, he learned, would take them to their hotel. The second car was an empty decoy that would depart in the opposite direction. He boarded the third car along with his two bodyguards and CIA driver. All three cars left at the same time. Anyone who had somehow managed to learn about the flight and its destination would have to gamble on which car to follow.

  Jack’s car took a zigzag route through the city, with the driver apparently taking directions from someone by cell phone. After about twenty minutes on what seemed like a random route, they pulled into a small residential area and parked. After carefully surveying the area, Jack’s bodyguards showed him into another black-windowed car, this one driven by an Arab with a bodyguard of his own in the front passenger seat. They departed again, and the new car made a number of speedy turns that sent Jack bouncing between his two guards before they arrived at an underground parking facility.

  They followed the driver and bodyguard through elegantly decorated hallways to a third-floor office suite. Jack’s two bodyguards reluctantly agreed to wait outside the door after giving their charge a handheld beeper to sound in the event of an emergency. The Arab bodyguard opened the door for Jack and then joined Jack’s bodyguards in the waiting room outside. Jack stepped into a large and richly furnished office, where a tall, handsome Arab gentleman rose from a small couch and inclined his head in greeting.

  “Good morning, Mr. McCarty. I am Prince Khalid ibn Saud, and I am pleased to meet you. Thank you so much for coming.”

  Uncertain of the proper decorum, Jack made an awkward half bow. “Good morning, Prince Khalid. I have heard many good things about you. I, too, have looked forward to our meeting.”

  Prince Khalid motioned Jack to a comfortable-looking chair directly across from his couch; the low table between them held an elegant coffee service and what looked like a selection of fruit and pastries. The prince said, graciously, “Please, help yourself to coffee or any other refreshments. I have spent a great deal of time in the United States, and I know how much you Americans like your morning coffee. You must be tired after your long flight.”

  “I thank you for your hospitality, Prince Khalid. It was a good flight, but overnight travel is indeed tiring.”

  “As you probably know, Mr. McCarty, I am a wanted man. As such, I don’t like to remain in the same place for any length of time. Please forgive me for foregoing the pleasantries, but I would like to get down to business so that we can both return to safer quarters as quickly as possible.”

  “I understand, Prince Khalid, and I agree with your concerns. I would also like to compliment you on your forthright interview on Al Jazeera the other day. I can only imagine the backlash it must have stirred up in certain quarters.”

  “You are absolutely right. There are people who want me out of the way, and I have been told there is a one-hundred-million-dollar reward for my head. I didn’t know I was worth that much.”

  Jack grinned and nodded.

  “We both have something in common, and that is our fervent desire to rid the world and Saudi Arabia of Mustafa, the usurper. He is a grave threat to my people and an even graver threat to the Arab community and mankind.” Jack nodded thoughtfully as Khalid continued.

  “Neither of us can do much on our own, but together we have the capacity to end his illegitimate regime. I have a thorough knowledge of the major players in this game, as well as inside intelligence, networks, and contacts within OPEC and in other Arab countries. I know where the weak points are and what needs to be done to oust Mustafa and his thugs. What I don’t have is the military muscle and global backing I need to pull it off. America, of course, has the latter but not the former. This is where a mutual alliance may be beneficial.”

  “The United States shares your concerns, Prince Khalid. Our allies would also be of the same mind, I’m sure. Clearly, what we need is a champion who can restore the Saudi government to the Saudi people, and it has to be someone those people will embrace—such as yourself.” Prince Khalid nodded appreciatively as Jack continued.

  “We have no territorial interest in Saudi Arabia, nor do we have any desire to change your culture or religious practices. Our foremost concern is maintaining peace and stability in the region, and that includes a restoration of the oil markets. Saudi Arabia has been the bulwark of stability for decades, and we’d like to do everything we can to restore that stability.”

  “I, too, would like to see the Saudi government once again assume its position as a leader in the Middle East,” Khalid replied. “However, to be very honest with you, Western countries have in the past committed indiscretions against the people and culture of our country, and I would not like to see these things repeated as we move forward. I would also be opposed to the introduction of Zionist influence into Saudi Arabia, although I respect Israel’s right to exist as a nation. With those considerations in mind, I think it is very possible for us to work together. How about you, Mr. McCarty; do you see any major hurdles to an alliance?”

  “The United States has learned a lot about the Middle East since our drawn-out war in Iraq over a decade ago. If I may be candid with you, Prince Khalid, we were led to believe back then that Ahmed Chalabi would be embraced by t
he Iraqi people when we went in, and he wasn’t. We want to be sure that any leader we back in this situation has the support of his people. We’ve watched uprisings take place across the Middle East for years now—including Saudi Arabia—and we’re a little gun-shy about who we back. In addition, there have been huge economic gaps between the royal Saudi regime and its people in the past, and this concerns us as we look to the future.”

  “Those are legitimate concerns, and I appreciate your honesty and directness. I do hope you are aware that some of the excesses committed by former rulers have been recognized, and steps were being taken at the time of the overthrow to correct some of our problems. I would fully expect you would do your own due diligence, however, and come to your own conclusions.”

  “Thank you, Prince Khalid. I was aware of your efforts on behalf of your people, and I also know of the high esteem in which you are held by OPEC and your Arab neighbors.”

  “Thank you,” Khalid said—almost humbly, Jack thought. “Unfortunately, you and your brother are fairly new to the scene, and I know little about either of you. Still, I think I’m a fairly good judge of character, and I feel that we share some of the same goals. What other issues do you see?”

  “I must confess,” Jack replied, happy with Khalid’s qualified endorsement, “we are deeply concerned with the dirty bombs emplaced in your oil fields, along with Mustafa’s threats of military action against his neighbors. What is your take on his strategy?”

  “I’ll start with the dirty bombs. They are a huge threat, and there is no doubt in my mind that Mustafa would detonate them if he knew his gambit was failing. The trick will be to dismantle these bombs before they can be detonated. To do so, we must learn their exact locations and then dispatch teams capable not only of dismantling the bombs, but also of overcoming the defenses likely to surround them. I’m sure you also know that Saudi Arabia’s entire oil-production apparatus was mined with conventional explosives long before Mustafa took over. He has merely added radioactivity to the equation.”