Lethal Trajectories

by Michael Conley

  “John here: Jake’s right. I work for the county road department, and we just got word there’ll be cutbacks on road repairs because of the rising costs of tar and fuel. I’d guess that layoff notices are not far away, and I’m worried to death about losing my job.”

  Pastor Veronica sensed the rise of a tsunami of emotions and fears and met each statement with a nod of affirmation and empathy. There were a dozen or more hands in the air, and each comment seemed to trigger a host of new ones.

  “My name is Maggie. There are three of us in our family who all need cars. My husband figured if we each use a full tank of gas, that’s thirty-six gallons a week. At close to ten bucks a gallon, that’s $360 a week. There’s no way we can afford this, and we don’t know what to do.”

  “I’m Marge and I brought up this same topic last week. I’m eighty-one years old, and it seems we’re living in end times. I can’t for the life of me see a way out of the mess. I’m scared for younger people with their lives ahead of them. What are we going to do?”

  As Veronica listened, the desperation in their voices confirmed her feeling that Life Challenges would have to do more than just listen to people who needed to talk out their issues. She herself was worried about the government’s capacity, at all levels, to deal with the escalating crisis. She decided to put something on the table she had thought hard about over the past week or so.

  “Thank you for sharing your fears and concerns,” Veronica said, firmly enough to quiet the mumbling of side conversations, “Now I’d like to share an idea that might interest you—something that we can do about our fears.”

  The room quieted; they always liked hearing Pastor Veronica’s ideas.

  “When our forefathers settled this land over a hundred and fifty years ago, they encountered unparalleled challenges. They had no established government at first; there was no social security or police force to help them. They didn’t see themselves as victims. On the contrary, they rolled up their sleeves and learned to adapt and depend on each other for support. We might be well advised to take a page from their book by relearning how to work together to survive and solve our shared problems.

  “I would like for us to consider taking Life Challenges to a new level. I see organizing ourselves along the lines of a co-op, where we can work together to address many of the challenges we have discussed tonight. For instance, several people expressed concerns with how to meet transportation needs with rising gas prices. One way is to share rides and cut down automobile use, but we can’t do that unless we know who needs to go where and what vehicles are available; this requires planning.”

  Veronica saw several people on the edge of their chairs, obviously interested.

  “Another example: we all know fuel costs will go up, including the costs of heating and utilities. Maybe we can find experts who’ll tell us how to get by with less through weatherization and other efficiencies. This requires planning. Some of us might become homeless due to the economy, but maybe someone else has a spare room to loan.

  “There are challenges out there we haven’t even considered, but there may also be resources we haven’t tapped yet. I want to identify the needs of our Life Challenges group members and find creative ways to meet those needs with what we have. The pioneers circled the wagons whenever danger loomed; that might be exactly what we need to do as well.”

  “I think I get the drift, Veronica,” said old Jake Hawkins, “but how do you propose we do it?” She could have hugged old Jake for his beautiful set-up question.

  “That’s a great question, Jake, and there is something I’d like to suggest. If the people in this room are genuinely interested in doing this, I propose forming a Life Challenges Cooperative. It will require planning, and I would suggest forming a start-up committee to develop a game plan and organizational structure. If you’d be interested in helping out, I’m inviting you to meet me here at eight o’clock on Saturday morning. Be prepared to roll up your sleeves and spend whatever time it takes to get the ball rolling. We’ll need all kinds of people with different talents, but I know we have those talents in this room. I hope you can join me on Saturday.”

  “Count me in, Veronica,” crowed Jake. “Frankly, I’d love to see us translate all our grousing and whining into something concrete, and this sounds like a good way to go.”

  Others joined Jake in the chorus, and Veronica could see she was on to something. She led the group in prayer, and they closed on a high note. She felt energized by the excitement in the air as they slowly left for their cars.

  An epiphany took place tonight, Veronica thought. These people, long accustomed to looking to the government for solutions and safety nets, were beginning to realize they were not helpless victims. Like their pioneering forefathers, they could also circle the wagons and work together in a common effort. There was strength in numbers. They were not alone.

  49

  Geneva, Switzerland

  12 October 2017

  Jack McCarty and Wang Peng were enjoying their morning coffee on the isolated patio of a chalet overlooking beautiful Lake Geneva. The cloudy, overcast morning contrasted with the good moods both were in. While tired from the previous day’s marathon of meetings, which had run late into the evening, they were exhilarated to have accomplished so much in such a short period of time.

  “What do you think, Peng, can we pull this off?”

  “We made enormous progress yesterday,” Peng replied, “and I know from talking to my team they felt the same. It’ll be interesting to see how they work out the two or three remaining issues we encountered, but it was a great start.”

  “I heard the same story from my guys. How do you think the global oil rationing idea will play with your people?” Jack asked, recalling the previous night’s vigorous debate.

  “I’m sure Lin Cheng will go along with it, but it’ll be a fight in the Politburo.”

  “I’d hope your Politburo would agree,” Jack responded emphatically, “that a joint effort between our countries—the users of over 40 percent of the world’s oil—is needed to generate the muscle needed to build a world coalition.”

  “No argument on that point from me, Jack, but we’ll get pushback on the idea of setting up a global ‘gas station’ to monitor transactions, consumption, and production numbers. The idea of using a third-party organization such as the International Energy Agency to keep track of the numbers might be acceptable, but ceding authority for setting rationing quotas to the IEA will be a tough sell.”

  “I’ve thought about that too,” Jack replied, “but we’ve got to put teeth into it or it won’t work. How else can we take almost 25 percent of the world’s oil out of the system without destroying the global economy? We’ll all need to cut back by that amount, and we need a mechanism to enforce it. That seems logical to me.”

  “It is logical, Jack, but the Politburo might see an inequity in the formula we’ve created. The 25 percent cutback applies only to imported oil and not domestic production. Since the United States produces more domestic oil, which is not subject to cutback, America won’t be making the same net reduction in oil as China. That might be a problem for us.”

  “I can see your point,” Jack replied peevishly, “but we need to remember our agreed-upon requirement that 10 percent of all domestic production be withheld and placed in a contingency reserve managed by the IEA gas station to account for inequities in the system. As such, the United States, with over four million barrels of domestic production, will be required to set aside four hundred thousand barrels of reserves daily, whereas China, with two million barrels, will only have to set aside two hundred thousand barrels. Americans will ask why we have to give up twice the amount of oil contingency reserve as China, and that will be problematic for us.”

  Wang nodded and replied, “I see your point also. We ran some numbers last night, and taking all factors into consideration we figured that net oil reductions for both of our countries will be in the 21 to 22 percent range. By contrast,
the reduction for a country like Japan that produces little if any oil would be slightly higher—somewhere around 25 percent.”

  “Part of the contingency reserve would be used to true up some of these inequities for a non-oil-producing country like Japan, right?”

  “Yes, but the Politburo will bristle at the idea of using any of our contingency reserve for Japan. That just isn’t going to happen.”

  “Likewise,” Jack bristled, “I’m sure Congress will not be happy if, in addition to the 10 percent contingency reserve, we have to dip into our strategic petroleum reserve to cover foreign obligations such as helping Japan.”

  Wang smiled at Jack’s statement, to Jack’s great irritation.

  “I’m not smiling at your problem, Jack, but I can’t help but be amused that we probably have the makings of a good deal here. Someone once told me that the best deal of all is the one where all parties walk away thinking they didn’t get everything they wanted.”

  Jack caught his drift and laughed. “You’re absolutely right; this is what good deal-making is all about. Are there are other issues you see with your Politburo, Peng?'

  This was obviously a slippery slope, and Wang pondered the question before answering.

  “China, as you know, has aggressively locked up as many oil markets as possible over the past ten years. There was no question in our minds years ago that oil was a finite resource that would decline amidst growing demand. My guess is the Politburo will feel that China has sufficient access to oil and doesn’t need the United States. In fact, they’ll see it as a way to leverage China’s position vis-à-vis America’s because they don’t believe America has the same access to oil as we do. Accordingly, they will pressure Lin Cheng not to relinquish authority on vital oil resources to an outside rationing system or agency.”

  “That sounds like a heavy load to overcome,” Jack offered. “How will Lin Cheng get around it?”

  “He’ll hammer away at the issues of access and affordability, particularly the latter. He’ll remind them that a destabilized oil market is not in China’s best interests, given the global nature of our economy. That includes the goods we export, our need for viable markets for our products, and the raw materials we import to make them. He’ll remind them of what the loss of so much of the world’s oil will do to oil prices and the paralyzing effect it will have on the global economy. More directly, I’m sure he’ll point out the likelihood of rising unemployment in their districts causing unrest amongst a disgruntled population. He will make every effort to show how they will be effected locally and suggest that our countries need to work together to get it resolved. The status quo is unsustainable. How do you think it’ll play out in America?”

  “I talked to Clayton last night, and he’s behind the plan we worked out. He met with Peter Canton yesterday to go over a domestic oil rationing plan, and he said the United States will ration, no matter what we work out here. We all agree, however, that a cooperative plan with China would help solidify the whole rationing idea—you know, like we’re all in this together.”

  “That’s good, but can Clayton sell it to Congress and the American people?”

  “I won’t lie to you, Peng, it’s going to be a battle royal. The American people, and particularly the members of Congress, have gotten used to having things their own way. The very thought of rationing—and doing it in concert with China—will be repugnant to many, particularly the hardliners.”

  “That sounds troublesome, Jack. How will he do it?”

  “He plans to tell it like it is when he addresses Congress next Monday. He’ll mince no words about the magnitude of the crisis, and he’ll also address climate-change and the broader economic challenges we face. He has faith that the American people will respond favorably once they understand the gravity of the predicament we’re in. He’ll also push his executive powers to the limit to make it happen. But it’ll be a major challenge.”

  “I’m glad to hear Clayton will address the broad spectrum of issues,” Wang said, “and I hope as a result of our efforts we can also collaborate fully on climate-change and economic issues. Needless to say, the Politburo is acutely interested in how the United States manages its economy given the amount of its debt that China holds.”

  Jack grimaced at the reminder and sipped his coffee before asking, “Have you had any further thoughts on my meeting with Prince Khalid?”

  “I think it’s a promising development. I’ve said nothing to my team about it, but I did bounce it off Lin Cheng.”

  “What was his reaction?” Jack asked eagerly, hoping he had not offended the Chinese leader.

  “Without knowing anything about Prince Khalid, he thought it should be pursued. We’ll need a Saudi leader—be it Khalid or someone else—to replace Mustafa. Lin doesn’t want China left out of the discussions with Khalid, but he thought it is best not to have too many fingers in the pot at this stage.”

  Relieved, Jack changed the subject. “What time will you be leaving today?”

  “I’ll need to leave by early afternoon to brief Lin Cheng and prepare for the upcoming Politburo Standing Committee meeting. How about you?”

  “I’m in the same boat as you. We’re having a major meeting in Washington tonight to fine-tune our plans and prepare for Clayton’s speech to Congress on Monday. Clayton said he’d be happy to send Lin Cheng a copy of his speech once it’s completed so that we’re not throwing any last-minute surprises at him.”

  “I know Lin Cheng would appreciate that,” Wang responded.

  The two old college buddies rolled up their sleeves to conclude their work on the unresolved issues. It was a work in process, but at least they were making progress.

  50

  The Situation Room

  12 October 2017

  Clayton McCarty peered out the window of the Oval Office at the light rain and falling leaves of autumn. It was his first good look outdoors after a heavy day of Safe Harbors planning meetings. He longed for the chance to take a long walk to clear his mind and gain perspective. Here I am, he mused, supposedly the most powerful person in the world, and I’m a prisoner in my own house—some power. …

  He collected his papers and started the short walk to the Situation Room, pleased with the progress his people had made on Safe Harbors and encouraged by the success of Jack’s meetings in Geneva. The NSC was assembled and waiting when he entered the room. He greeted them and nodded at Admiral Coxen, inviting him to begin.

  “The purpose of our meeting this evening,” said Coxen, “is to finalize the blueprint for Safe Harbors, to the extent we can, in preparation for the president’s address on Monday night. We expect Jack McCarty to join us as soon as his plane touches down from Geneva.”

  “Thank you, Admiral,” Clayton interjected, “and I’d like to thank all of you for your Herculean efforts on behalf of Safe Harbors. Admiral Coxen has distributed copies of your respective reports in advance of this meeting, and we’ve all been talking to each other as well. I’d like to hear the latest from each of you, and I’ll then outline Monday’s speech and ask for your feedback.”

  Clayton listened carefully to their presentations, impressed with the quality of their reports and pleased with the collegial efforts put forth to develop the complex plan. He found the CIA report on Israel’s nuclear preparations chilling, but he was overjoyed at the conclusion of the report to see his brother enter the room with his mischievous grin.

  “Hi, stranger,” said the president joyfully, “I hope you enjoyed your Geneva vacation.”

  “Thanks, Clayton—er, I mean, Mr. President, it was a ball.” The group laughed at Jack’s indiscretion. It relieved some of the tension generated by Tony Mullen’s gloomy presentation on Israel.

  “Jack, the floor is yours. We’ve seen your reports, and I’ve passed on what you’ve explained over the phone, but we’d like to hear it now from you, firsthand,” said the president.

  “Thank you, Mr. President. There are really three things I’d like to repo
rt on. The first is my clandestine meeting with Prince Khalid ibn Saud—and by the way, Tony, your CIA boys did a great job in Geneva.” Mullen nodded in appreciation.

  “I’ll report on the operational framework we’ve agreed to thus far with China in our alliance against the Saudis, and last, I’ll talk about the global oil rationing protocol we’ve roughed out.” Jack launched into his report with vigor, mostly holding the floor until an argument broke out on the 10 percent oil contingency reserve requirement on domestic production.

  Clayton listened to their spirited debate and was amazed at its similarity to Jack’s private reports on his discussions with Wang Peng. This will be a tough sell with Congress, he mused, particularly if America has to pony up even more oil to prop up Japan, or maybe even Israel.

  “I suppose it’s an inequity of sorts,” Jack interjected, “but as Wang Peng also pointed out, features of the plan require sacrifice from China as well. Regarding Israel, we’ll have to figure out a way to assure them that their oil and security needs will be met. If they don’t get what they need, they may feel compelled to take a whack at someone. Prince Khalid told me in no uncertain terms that the United States is responsible for keeping Israel at bay and that any attacks by Israel will automatically end any arrangements we might have with him or other Arab countries. One way or another, we’ll probably be sending oil to Japan and Israel.”

  “I don’t think any of this is a surprise; we’ll just need to be prepared as we plan. Thanks, Jack, for a great job,” Clayton said emphatically, “and I’d reiterate what you said about this not being a done deal with China. We’ll need a sign-off from the Politburo, and it’s not a no-brainer. Jack and I will call Chairman Lin and Wang Peng after this meeting to confirm our position, and they in turn will review it with the Politburo and get back to me. As a precaution, I’m preparing two versions of my speech—one with China in the deal and the other without—but I sincerely hope for the former.” They all nodded in agreement.