Trigger Point

by Matthew Glass

  The president nodded. ‘You’re right, John. They have to turn around. They have to turn around and not get in that situation where they’ve got twelve hours to decide what to do.’

  ‘That’s the only way out.’

  ‘They turn around, release our guys, and then we let the ships go and we agree not to say anything about it, on either side.’

  ‘And the threat if they don’t agree is …?’ said Rose.

  ‘The threat is they end up with a hundred and two ships in a very small area of real estate, like the admiral said.’

  ‘Which is what they already think is going to happen.’

  ‘Which they need to believe is going to happen,’ said Oakley. ‘That’s the difference. They really, really need to believe it. And they need to believe what’s going to happen after that.’

  ‘How do we know they don’t want that?’

  The president turned. It was Admiral Tovey who had asked the question.

  ‘What do you mean by that, Admiral?’

  ‘Tactically, when I look at the situation, the question for me is, why haven’t they already called our bluff? Why haven’t they tried to sail their ships out of there? What would we do?’

  ‘What would we do?’ asked the president.

  ‘What I outlined to you last night, Mr President,’ said Hale. ‘In the first instance, Admiral Pressler would fire across their bows.’

  ‘And if they kept going?’

  ‘We’d speak to you, sir,’ said Tovey. ‘We have various options. We could fire in warning again. Or we could fire to damage, or to incapacitate, or to sink. It would be your choice. But they haven’t tested us at all to see if we’re bluffing. They haven’t even looked for the shot across their bows. Which means they either believe we’d take them out first up if they tried to get away, which is good, or … if we’re bluffing, they don’t want to know it.’

  52

  THIS TIME, ZHANG agreed to take a call.

  It was 9pm on December 29 in the Oval Office, 10 in the morning of December 30 in Beijing, when the two men spoke. Neither of them had much stomach for pleasantries. After about a minute Knowles got down to business.

  ‘President Zhang,’ he said, as his interpreter spoke beside him, ‘we’re in a very serious situation. If our forces come together I am concerned that something will happen that neither of us wants.’

  ‘China wants no conflict with the United States,’ replied Zhang through the voice of his interpreter.

  ‘President Zhang, let me be frank. That isn’t how it looks.’

  ‘I repeat, President Knowles, China wants no conflict with the United States.’

  ‘Then turn your ships around, sir.’

  ‘Release the Kunming and the Changchun, President Knowles.’

  ‘Return Captains Dewy and Montez and let our men go in Sudan.’

  ‘I do not govern Sudan, President Knowles.’

  ‘Your forces are responsible for what’s happening there.’

  ‘So you say.’

  ‘We have proof.’

  ‘So you say, President Knowles.’

  There was silence. Knowles hated having to call the Chinese president. They were both in an equally dangerous situation, but the fact that he was the one who had called made it seem as if he was asking for help. Again. And yet it had been clear from the beginning that the call had to be made. If there was even the slightest chance that what was happening might be the result of a misinterpretation, or miscalculation, the error had to be exposed. But Knowles was determined not to say a thing that would put him in the position of the supplicant. Zhang must be just as uncertain about what was about to happen as he was. The Chinese leader’s monosyllabic style, stiff and emotionless at the best of times, would help him hide it. Knowles was resolved to appear just as unyielding.

  ‘This is a situation that will require both of us to act,’ said Knowles. ‘You must use your influence with Sudan to help settle this.’

  There was no reply from Zhang.

  Ed Abrahams, who was listening in to the call along with Gary Rose, scribbled a note. He handed it to the president. Set out the steps to resolve this.

  ‘President Zhang, I suggest that the following things happen. Return Captains Dewy and Montez and allow our men to leave. Once the helicopters carrying them are out of Sudanese airspace we will allow the Kunming and the Changchun to set sail. Once the Kunming and the Changchun are out of range of our fleet, turn your ships around. We can have this whole thing done in six hours.’

  ‘The Kunming and the Changchun have been forcibly detained in international waters,’ came Zhang’s reply. ‘This is an act of piracy, President Knowles, by the United States. China does not negotiate over acts of piracy. Release the Kunming and Changchun.’

  ‘What about our men?’

  ‘That has nothing to do with the Chinese government. Your argument is with Sudan, not with China. You will need to address your concerns to the government of Sudan.’

  ‘We have done that.’

  ‘Then I’m sure the government of Sudan will respond reasonably.’

  Knowles threw back his head in exasperation. Then he sat forward again. ‘What if we do the two things together? We agree a time. We send our helicopters in to get our men, and we release the Kunming and Changchun at the same time. We’ll show you that trust.’

  ‘President Knowles, there is nothing to discuss about your men. If that is what you have called to discuss, you have rung the wrong phone. You should have rung the phone of the Sudan government. You should address–’

  ‘We know Chinese troops were involved. We know they were there. We have three of your injured men under our care.’

  ‘… the Sudan government.’ Zhang stopped. Knowles waited. A moment later he started up again. ‘To me, you can speak about the Kunming and the Changchun. President Knowles, your navy must release those ships. Believe me when I tell you this. You must release those ships. There is no other way.’

  ‘President Zhang, do you have any idea what will happen if our forces come together?’

  ‘China has no desire for a conflict with the United States. If a conflict occurs it is because Chinese vessels have been detained in international waters. You can bring this to an end very quickly. President Knowles, I am asking you to release those ships. That is the necessary step. There is no need for conflict.’

  ‘And I am asking you to release our men. That is the necessary step.’

  ‘Release the Kunming and Changchun, President Knowles. You must release those ships.’

  Knowles shook his head. He didn’t know what to say. He looked at Abrahams and Rose. They gazed back at him.

  Knowles turned back to the phone. ‘President Zhang, let’s talk about something else. Let’s talk about the economic situation. We seem to be in an awful state.’

  ‘You have taken unlawful steps, President Knowles.’

  ‘Steps to protect our markets. Steps to protect our economy. Steps you could have helped us avoid if you had come out and said what we asked you to.’

  ‘Unlawful steps.’

  ‘Which you could have helped us avoid!’ Knowles restrained himself. It wouldn’t help to show anger. ‘How do we de-escalate this?’

  ‘The one who has escalated, must de-escalate.’

  ‘You announced sanctions, President Zhang. Many sanctions, all of which are unlawful.’

  ‘Because of your unlawful measures, President Knowles. Retract those measures and we will retract ours.’

  ‘I can’t retract them!’ Knowles took a breath. ‘These are not measures of retaliation. Your measures are measures of retaliation. Mine are measures of protection. Our markets cannot function at this moment unless these measures are in place. Your markets can function perfectly well without the measures you have announced – in fact, your measures will damage them.’

  ‘Then retract your measures and I will retract mine.’

  ‘I can’t retract them, President Zhang, unless we have assur
ance that your funds won’t manipulate the markets.’

  ‘The funds did not manipulate the markets.’

  ‘Then where’s the problem?’

  ‘I do not deal with these funds. These funds are separate.’

  ‘You own them. Mr Hu, the head of the PIC, is a member of your finance ministry.’

  ‘They have their own remit. They are commercial funds. You must police your own markets, President Knowles. I do not expect you to police China’s markets.’

  ‘We do police our markets.’

  ‘Then you do not need China to do it.’

  ‘I’m not asking you to do it!’

  Knowles saw Ed Abrahams lower his hands a couple of times, telling him to keep it calm. He was on the verge of shouting.

  ‘President Zhang, let’s come back to the measures you’ve announced. They’re going to hurt China as much as the US. They hurt everybody.’

  ‘That is what you say.’

  ‘You know they will.’

  ‘That is what you say. The measures are in place. President Knowles, understand, the measures are in place and when you retract the measures you have imposed I will retract mine.’

  Abrahams scribbled a note.

  ‘President Zhang, let’s go back to the ships. I think that’s the immediate problem.’

  ‘I agree. That is a good idea. Release the Kunming and the Changchun and do not let the United States look like a pirate in the sea.’

  Knowles could have beaten his head against the table.

  ‘China does not want conflict with the United States.’

  ‘Then let us both act to prevent it. What about this? You release our men, we’ll release your ships at the same time. We’ll show you that trust.’

  ‘China does not hold your men, President Knowles.’

  ‘Sudan holds them. And you have–’

  ‘That’s correct, President Knowles. Sudan holds them.’

  ‘And you have enough influence with Sudan to make them release them.’

  ‘So you say.’

  ‘Your troops were on the ground! We have proof. We have three of them.’

  ‘So you say.’

  Knowles looked at Rose and Abrahams in exasperation. The two men, by their expressions, had no idea how to break the deadlock.

  ‘President Zhang, if our ships come together, I fear greatly there will be conflict. I fear that we will see a terrible battle. We shouldn’t take such a risk. Turn your ships around. Release our men and we will release your ships.’

  ‘Release our ships. Believe me, President Knowles, you must release those ships. There is no other way.’

  ‘President Zhang, please do not mistake what I’m saying. There will be conflict. If we do not find the way out of this, I fear greatly that there will be conflict.’

  ‘There is a way out. You must release those ships.’

  ‘The way out is for you to release our men.’

  ‘Our ships, President Knowles.’

  Knowles took a deep breath. ‘Okay. President Zhang, it doesn’t look like we’re getting anywhere.’

  ‘I have told you what you must do. You must release those ships.’

  Knowles paused. He didn’t know what else to say. ‘I think we should stay in touch on this.’

  ‘Yes,’ said the Chinese president.

  Knowles hesitated for a moment. ‘Good day.’

  ‘Good night, President Knowles.’

  Knowles put the phone down. He glanced at the interpreter and thanked him. The young man gathered up the notes he had taken and left the office.

  Knowles was silent. That was an awful conversation. It had been like butting heads. Just butting heads.

  ‘He’s going to take it to the wire,’ murmured Abrahams.

  The president looked at him.

  ‘If he wanted to get out of this, you just gave him a way.’

  ‘Do you think he got the message?’

  ‘How could he not? You said it ten times. He lets our men go, everyone goes home.’

  ‘If it comes to the point,’ said Rose, ‘they’ll lose half their carrier fleet.’

  ‘Might be a price they’re prepared to pay,’ said Abrahams. ‘No one has stood up to US military power in a set-piece battle since World War Two. Just the act of standing up to us, in their eyes, in the eyes of lots of countries, that would be something.’

  ‘Even if they get smashed?’ said Rose skeptically.

  ‘This time. In ten years they’ll be the biggest economy in the world. Ten years after that …’ Abrahams shrugged.

  ‘That still doesn’t mean they’re prepared to–’

  ‘I don’t want to smash anyone,’ said the president curtly. He shook his head in frustration. ‘You know, the thing I don’t understand is, what’s this about? It’s not about those damn ships. We took those ships because they took our men. Why do they want our men? What do they get out of it?’ He turned to Rose. ‘We’re sure it’s them, right? We’re sure it’s not the Sudanese by themselves?’

  ‘Absolutely. When Hale told the Chinese military we were coming in to get out the wounded, they let us do it, clean as a whistle. We told the Chinese, not the Sudanese. China’s in control.’

  ‘So what do they want with seventy-five US soldiers? What good does it do them? He must know we need our guys back. He must know we can’t just leave them. It’s a damn dangerous thing to do. It just complicates the hell out of everything.’ Knowles frowned, trying to understand it. ‘And he must know I had to take action on the economy. He must know we can’t allow our markets to be manipulated or even look like they’re being manipulated. What the hell do they want?’

  ‘Whatever it is,’ said Gary Rose, ‘we can’t let them have it.’

  Suddenly Knowles remembered the conversation with Marion Ellman in the graveyard at Jefferson City. It was only yesterday, but Bob Livingstone’s funeral seemed a long time ago. The president hadn’t had a minute to think about it since he had got news of the operation in Sudan. It had gone clear out of his mind.

  That was the last thing she had said to him. She stood there and pointed her finger and said: You’d better figure out what the Chinese want. But not, Knowles knew, so as to avoid giving it to them. That was the opposite of what she had meant.

  ‘Mr President,’ said Rose, ‘General Hale is going to present a range of operational plans for what we might need to do. We need to decide how we contain this and be aware of the possible scenarios for how it might develop. If it comes to the point, we can be fairly certain it won’t stay confined to the Indian Ocean.’

  The president nodded. He was only half listening, still pondering that conversation in the graveyard.

  Rose continued. ‘We have a meeting set for nine tomorrow morning to go through the options with the Joint Chiefs.’

  IN BEIJING, ZHANG watched his interpreter leave the room.

  ‘They have three of our men,’ he said to Qin.

  His advisor nodded. ‘Apparently.’

  General Fan hadn’t told him that. Zhang wasn’t particularly surprised to discover that he hadn’t. He was sure there was a lot more that Fan hadn’t told him as well. If it had been up to him, he would never have allowed the Americans to be attacked. There was nothing he wanted more than to give them back now.

  ‘Do you think President Knowles got the message?’

  ‘You said it many times.’

  Zhang nodded. He had said it as often as he could. There was only one way that Fan might be persuaded to hand back the men, and that was if he had his victory, if the Americans looked as if they had backed down under the threat of the Chinese strike groups. That would also hand Fan a victory against him – but that was preferable to a major battle with the Americans. If such a battle happened, there was no telling what the army would do.

  But Zhang couldn’t say any of that out loud to the American president. He couldn’t reveal his weakness. He had said as much as he dared.

  ‘What do you think they will do if ou
r ships arrive?’

  Qin shook his head. ‘If our ships arrive, it means they will not have released the Kunming and Changchun. After your message, if they have not released the Kunming and Changchun, it means they are ready to fight.’

  ‘Will we fight?’

  Qin didn’t reply. He had no better idea than Zhang. The aircraft carrier fleets were loyal to Xu. The defense minister was playing his usual game, going along with both sides for as long as he could. He was keeping Fan happy by sending the fleets to Kenya. What he would do when they got there would depend on what he thought the carrier fleet admirals were prepared to do and what would be in his own interest at the time.

  There was a knock on the door. One of Zhang’s aides came in.

  ‘President Zhang,’ he said, ‘it is time to leave for the meeting of the Central Military Commission.’

  53

  THE MORNING DAWNED misty and grey in Washington. At 8am a feeble light was filtering in through the windows of the White House. In southern Sudan, it was four in the afternoon of a hot, tense day. The American marines holed up in the compound gazed out at the remains of three blackened Chinooks in a clearing outside and looked for signs of the forces encircling them beyond. Five hundred miles away, off Lamu Bay, a swell had risen and a squall was approaching from the southeast. The two Chinese destroyers rode the waves, surrounded by four of the ships from the Abraham Lincoln strike group. Through binoculars, far off, the Chinese captains could see the long, grey bulk of the carrier itself. Further distant, across hundreds of miles of open ocean, the carrier strike groups of the Mao Zedong and Chou Enlai and the John F Kennedy and George HW Bush were converging.

  In the Situation Room, Admiral Tovey projected charts to show their positions. Running slightly slower than projected, but with calm conditions predicted for the route, the arrival of the Chinese carriers off the coast of Kenya was now estimated to coincide roughly with that of the Kennedy, in approximately fifty hours. The head of defense intelligence gave an update. He showed images taken from drones above the compound in Sudan to demonstrate the disposition of forces, highlighting features that appeared to be emplacements of surface to air missiles and concentrations of military vehicles. The wider world was still unaware of what was happening but military intelligence communities in a number of countries had detected the movements of the Chinese and American carriers through their own satellite surveillance. The Russians had started to move a carrier strike group that was at sea off Kamchatka southwards east of Japan. In an apparent response, the Chinese had sent one of their remaining two carrier groups north. The Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, as the Japanese navy was called, had mobilized two groups of destroyers and destroyer escorts. If the Russians and Chinese kept moving, the Sea of Japan was set to get uncomfortably crowded. The small but efficient Taiwanese navy was fully mobilized around Taiwan. The Japanese and Taiwanese had been told there were US maneuvers taking place in the Indian Ocean. The same message had been given to other Nato allies who had become aware of the movements of the US fleets. The British and French, with their own satellite imagery, must have realized that something more was happening.