I Think You'll Find It's a Bit More Complicated Than That
Page 35
implementation of the care.data: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26187980
on hold for six months: http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/18/nhs-delays-sharing-medical-records-care-data
by and large, the public: http://www.wellcome.ac.uk/About-us/Publications/Reports/Public-engagement/WTP053206.htm
results of clinical trials: http://www.badscience.net/category/publication-bias/
Tim Kelsey: http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2013/aug/21/tim-kelsey-nhs-big-data
Dr Foster Intelligence http://drfosterintelligence.co.uk/solutions/nhs-hospitals/
announcing boldly: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-2 6030479
identifiable patient data: http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2014/february/pseudonymised-health-data-will-not-be-able-to-be-traced-back-to-individuals-under-caredata-scheme-says-official-/
medical research database: http://www.theguardian.com/science/medical-research
keen to point out: http://www.ehi.co.uk/news/ehi/9207/re-identifying-care.data-illegal
Steve Tennison: http://ico.org.uk/news/latest_news/2013/gp-surgery-manager-prosecuted-for-illegally-accessing-patients-medical-records-02122013
Care.data Has Been Bungled
millions of patients: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/nhs/10659147/Patient-records-should-not-have-been-sold-NHS-admits.html
information governance assessment: http://www.hscic.gov.uk/media/12866/caredata-addendum---Information-Governance-Assessment/pdf/care.data_addendum_-_IG_assessment_-_September_2013_(NIC-178106-MLSWX.A0913).pdf
SURVEYS
The Huff
The Huff: http://www.badscience.net/2008/01/the-huff/
remains in print: How to Lie: http://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Lie-Statistics-Penguin-Business/dp/0140136290/tag=bs0b-21
Doctors say no to abortions: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/29/nabort129.xml
I hope that DNUK: http://www.doctors.net.uk/
A New and Interesting Form of Wrong
A New and Interesting: http://www.badscience.net/2010/11/1864/
reported in the Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/15/gay-people-coming-out-younger-age
its press release: http://www.stonewall.org.uk/media/current_releases/4867.asp
an interesting problem: http://bengoldacre.posterous.com/an-interesting-survival-analysis-problem-via
‘Hello Madam, Would You Like Your Children to Be Unemployed?’
Hello Madam: http://www.badscience.net/2010/11/hello-madam-would-you-like-your-children-to-be-unemployed/
secret nuclear bunker: http://www.secretnuclearbunker.com/
Project Redsand: http://www.project-redsand.com/
travelled to Dungeness: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dungeness_%28 headland%29
toytown narrow-gauge railway: http://www.rhdr.org.uk/
Derek Jarman’s house: http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/allotment/2008/feb/27/dereksretreat
terrifying nuclear power station: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dungeness_Nuclear_Power_Station
BBC dutifully reported: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-11521839
the original polling questions: http://www.climatesock.com/2010/11/don%E2%80%99t-just-believe-what-you%E2%80%99re-told-about-polls/
EPIDEMIOLOGY
Beau Funnel
The BBC has found a story: UK bowel cancer rates: http://www.theguardian.com/media/bbc
variation in UK bowel cancer rates: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-14854019
average death rate: http://www.theguardian.com/society/bowel-cancer
Paul Barden: http://pb204.blogspot.com/
decided to download the data: http://pb204.blogspot.com/2011/09/three-fold-variation-in-uk-bowel-cancer.html
come from a press release: http://www.beatingbowelcancer.org/news/sep2011/charity-warns-wide-variations-bowel-cancer-death-rates-must-not-be-ignored
Beating Bowel Cancer: http://www.theguardian.com/society/cancer
built a map: http://www.bowelcancermap.org/
the Poisson distribution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution
bell-shaped curve: http://www.etsy.com/listing/48582479/standard-normal-distribution-plushie
series of simulations: http://pb204.blogspot.com/2011/09/three-fold-variation-in-uk-bowel-cancer.html
Understanding Uncertainty: http://understandinguncertainty.org/
Spiegelhalter suggested that Barden: http://pb204.blogspot.com/2011/09/im-grateful-to-david-spiegelhalter-of.html
Comparing Institutional Performance: http://medicine.cf.ac.uk/media/filer_public/2010/10/11/journal_club_-_spiegelhalter_stats_in_med_funnel_plots.pdf
the citation classic: http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?cluster=12057401031362296814
The Public Health Observatories: http://www.apho.org.uk/
several neat tools: http://www.apho.org.uk/default.aspx?QN=HP_INTERACTIVE2011
draw a funnel plot: http://tools.erpho.org.uk/poisson.aspx
When Journalists Do Primary Research
When Journalists: http://www.badscience.net/2011/04/when-journalists-do-primary-research/
said the Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/8434106/Recession-linked-to-huge-rise-in-use-of-antidepressants.html
said the Daily Mail: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1374284/Depression-Economic-slump-fuels-43-rise-use-anti-depressants.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
being handed antidepressants: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/239413/Money-worries-driving-more-to-pills
the Guardian joined in: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/apr/07/dramatic-rise-antidpressant-prescriptions-money-worries
seems to have come from BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12986314
2009 data: http://www.ic.nhs.uk/statistics-and-data-collections/primary-care/prescriptions/prescription-cost-analysis-england--2009
due about now: http://www.ic.nhs.uk/statistics-and-data-collections/primary-care/prescriptions
antidepressant prescribing: http://www.bmj.com/content/339/bmj.b3999.full
British Journal of General Practice: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1839016/?tool=pubmed
2.8 million: http://2.8.mil/
The BMJ paper: http://www.bmj.com/content/339/bmj.b3999.full
Confound You!
Unplanned children develop more slowly: http://www.foxnews.com/health/2011/07/27/unplanned-children-develop-more-slowly/
IVF children have bigger vocabulary: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/8663105/IVF-children-have-bigger-vocabulary-than-unplanned-babies.html
Children born after an unwanted pregnancy: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-07/bmj-cba072511.php
this BMJ paper: http://www.bmj.com/content/343/bmj.d4473.full
Bicycle Helmets and the Law
Dennis and colleagues: http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f2674
‘seems to have been minimal’: http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f2674?ijkey=f5e18ac0289812fef1140ebb4f839638e47d085c&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha
come to different conclusions: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18646128?access_num=18646128&link_type=MED&dopt=Abstract
less likely to have a head injury: http://summaries.cochrane.org/CD001855/INJ_wearing-a-helmet-dramatically-reduces-the-risk-of-head-and-facial-injuries-for-bicyclists-involved-in-a-crash-even-if-it-involves-a-motor-vehicle
‘documented in many fields: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01589.x/abstract and Adams, J., Risk. Taylor & Francis, 2002.
larger clearance to cyclists without: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17064655?access_num=17064655&link_type=MED&dopt=Abstract
outweigh the risks of crashes: http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/physical-activity/activities/hepa-europe/hepa-europe-projects-and-working-groups/development-of-methods-for-quantification-of-health-benefits-from-walking-and-cycling
such as for children: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.
1539-6924.2011.01785.x/abstract
cycling in the second group: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369847812000587
Smeed’s Law: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16389930?access_num=16389930&link_type=MED&dopt=Abstract
speculative assumptions: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01770.x/abstract
emotional response: http://psycnet.apa.org/?&fa=main.doiLanding& doi=10.1037/0278-6133.24.4.S35
Screen Test
Screen Test: http://www.badscience.net/2008/01/screen-test/
Screening and repairing: http://www.mrw.interscience.wiley.com/cochrane/clsysrev/articles/CD002945/frame.html
mammogram screening for breast cancer: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=556337
Researchers have studied: http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/332/7540/538
repeatedly been shown: http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/328/7432/148?ijkey=c30d4caac1758e2a62478825d4943f10820ae34c&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha
at least one large survey: http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/291/1/71?ijkey=5b96d0b882f4bef1847b1dc3364754c3bbd31b05&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha
How Do You Know?
mobile phones: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/mobilephones
cause brain cancer: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/may/31/mobile-phone-radiation-cancer-risk
part of the WHO: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Agency_for_Research_on_Cancer
triggered over 3000 articles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organisation
only a press release: http://news.google.co.uk/news/story?pz=1&cf=all&ned=uk&hl=en&q=iarc&ncl=dZVLtSHEkU8Cq_MxKk 87AKCKGvSrM
limits of the research: http://www.iarc.fr/en/media-centre/pr/2011/pdfs/pr208_E.pdf
hasn’t changed much: http://journals.lww.com/epidem/Fulltext/2009/09000/Health_Effects_of_Mobile_Telephones.6.aspx
in every 100,000: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=7720
‘prospective cohort study’: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=7720
’prospective cohort study’: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohort_study
‘retrospective case-control study’: http://resources.bmj.com/bmj/readers/readers/epidemiology-for-the-uninitiated/8-case-control-and-cross-sectional-studies
Interphone study: http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/39/3/675.abstract
Anecdotes Are Great. If They Really Illustrate the Data
Channel 4 News: http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/display/playlistref/250711/clipid/250711_4ON_DUCHENNE_25
Study shows no such thing: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2811%2960756-3/abstract
Great Ormond Street press release: http://bgarchive.posterous.com/first-targeted-treatment-success-for-duchenne
tracked down online: http://twitter.com/%C2%A3%21/uclnews/status/95506900220776449
Evan Harris: http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/political-science
has been supoptimal: http://www.badscience.net/2009/05/dodgy-academic-pr/
biggest diseases in medicine: http://www.theguardian.com/education/medicine
patients on doxazosin: http://ebm.bmj.com/content/5/6/172.full.pdf
blood test called HbA1c: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycated_hemoglobin
reduce your HbA1c level: http://www.bmj.com/content/341/bmj.c4805.full
turned out that rosiglitazone: http://www.badscience.net/index.php?s=rosiglitazone
drug has now been suspended: http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2010/09/news_detail_001119.jsp&murl=menus/news_and_events/news_and_events.jsp&mi d=WC0b01ac058004d5c1&jsenabled=false
The Strange Case of the Magnetic Wine
The Strange Case: http://www.badscience.net/2003/12/the-strange-case-of-the-magnetic-wine/
What Is Science?: First, Magnetise Your Wine
What Is Science: http://www.badscience.net/2005/12/what-is-science-first-magnetise-your-wine/
BAD ACADEMIA
What If Academics Were as Dumb as Quacks with Statistics
What if Academics: http://www.badscience.net/2011/10/what-if-academics-were-as-dumb-as-quacks-with-statistics/
publish a mighty torpedo: http://www.nature.com/neuro/journal/v14/n9/full/nn.2886.html
Brain-Imaging Studies Report More Positive Findings Than Their Numbers Can Support. This Is Fishy
Brain-Imaging Studies: http://www.badscience.net/2011/08/brain-imaging-studies-report-more-positive-findings-than-their-numbers-can-support-this-is-fishy/
publication bias:http://www.badscience.net/category/publication-bias/
took a different approach: http://archpsyc.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/archgenpsychiatry.2011.28
‘None of Your Damn Business’
None of Your: http://www.badscience.net/2011/01/none-of-your-damn-business/
2004 published a study: http://ats.ctsnetjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/annts;78/4/1433
it was retracted: http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/2011/01/04/thoracic-surgery-journal-retracts-hypertension-study-marred-by-troubled-data/
Dr L. Henry Edmunds Jr, MD: http://www.uphs.upenn.edu/surgery/faculty/lhe.html
none of your damn business: http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/why-was-that-paper-retracted-editor-to-retraction-watch-its-none-of-your-damn-business/
retracted a 2009 paper: http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/2010/12/17/journal-of-the-american-chemical-society-retracts-gold-nanoparticle-paper/
ad hoc blog tracking: http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/2010/08/03/why-write-a-blog-about-retractions/
stories behind retractions: http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/2010/10/22/update-on-axel-ullrich-retractions-lead-author-manipulated-figures-says-ullrich/
study last year: http://informahealthcare.com/doi/abs/10.1185/03007991003603804
policing academic misconduct: http://www.bmj.com/content/331/7511/288.full
Twelve Monkeys. No … Eight. Wait, Sorry, I Meant Fourteen
Twelve Monkeys: http://www.badscience.net/2010/01/12-monkeys-no-8-wait-sorry-i-meant-14/
Animals in Research: http://www.nc3rs.org.uk/
PLoS One: http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0007824
Medical Hypotheses Fails the Aids Test
Medical Hypotheses: http://www.badscience.net/2009/09/medical-hypotheses-fails-the-aids-test/
in the newspapers: http://news.google.co.uk/news/more?um=1&ned=uk&cf=all&ncl=dEYVi6Gb688Hm1MSCLQllCltTV9pM
Peer review: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_review
Aidstruth.org: http://aidstruth.org/about
Elsevier have withdrawn: http://aidstruth.org/news/2009/elsevier-retracts-duesberg%E2%80%99s-aids-denialist-article
one surreally crass paper: http://www.badscience.net/2007/08/observations-on-the-classification-of-idiots/
Italian doctors argued: http://www.badscience.net/2007/08/observations-on-the-classification-of-idiots/
treatment for nasal congestion: http://www.badscience.net/2008/10/more-crap-journals/
Peter Duesberg and David Rasnick: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19619953
Lancet paper they reference: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16890831
Bruce Charlton has argued: http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/335/7617/451
written to Medline: http://www.aidstruth.org/sites/aidstruth.org/files/NLMLetter-2009.08.05.pdf
deaths of an estimated: http://afraf.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/107/427/157
330,000 people: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18931626
Observations on the Classification of Idiots
Observations on: http://www.badscience.net/2007/08/observations-on-the-classification-of-idiots/
More Crap Journals?
More Crap Journals: http://www.badscience.net/2008/10/more-crap-journals/
potential treatment of nasal congestion: http://www.medical-hypotheses.com/article/S0306-9877(08)001
15-1/fulltext
unreliable and potentially hazardous: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030698770800354X
surreally crass paper: http://www.badscience.net/2007/08/observations-on-the-classification-of-idiots/
more from him online: http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/335/7617/451
only one in four: http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/seriously-is-the-daily-mail-any-worse-than-your-average-academic-journal/
GOVERNMENT STATISTICS
If You Want to Be Trusted More: Claim Less
If You Want: http://www.badscience.net/2010/01/if-you-want-to-be-trusted-more-claim-less/
Sunday Times: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/public_sector/article6974029.ece
copycat story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/6925897/Public-pay-races-ahead-in-recession.html
Survey of Hours and Earnings: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statBase/product.asp?vlnk=13101
ASHE 2009 data: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_labour/ASHE-2009/tab1_5a.xls
Is This the Worst Government Statistic Ever Created?
costs every household £452: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2004590/Council-incompetence-costing-household-Britain-452-year.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
the Express agreed: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/253235/Councils-owe-you-rebate
proper story, from press release: http://www.communities.gov.uk/news/corporate/1925280
Department of Communities and Local Government: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/localgovernment
‘Opera Solutions White Paper’: http://www.badscience.net/wp-content/uploads/Opera-gov-savings-local-gov.pdf
The ‘full report’: http://www.badscience.net/wp-content/uploads/Opera-gov-savings-local-gov.pdf
the biggest thing: http://www.niepbuiltenvironment.org.uk/documents/ReportonPotentialLocalGovernmentSavingsthrough BetterProcurementF.doc
Anarchy for the UK. Ish.
Anarchy for the UK: http://www.badscience.net/2011/04/anarchy-for-the-uk-ish/
The Sun said: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3494359/Cops-charge-149-after-protest-against-cuts-turns-ugly.html
149 people charged: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/mar/28/cuts-protest-violence-149-chargedhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/mar/28/cuts-protest-violence-149-charged
the Manchester Evening News carried: http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1416475_boy-17-from-manchester-among-149-charged-over-violence-after-anti-cuts-march