The Malthus Pandemic

by Terry Morgan

CHAPTER 50

  My taxi into Cairo from the airport was an ageing Mercedes. The driver was an ageing Egyptian called Mahmoud. But Mahmoud spoke good English and by the time we arrived at my hotel, I had his mobile phone number and an arrangement that Mahmoud would become my chauffeur if I needed him.

  The next morning started hot, clear and sunny and I did my usual bit of shopping - a new mobile phone and a local SIM card - and then spent a few minutes checking it. I emailed Colin to say I was contactable and then phoned Anna on her new English phone to say I had arrived and would be in touch very soon. Domestic duties over, I then phoned Nagi El Abdeen to fix a meeting Then I called Mahmoud.

  At twelve o'clock precisely, Mahmoud's Mercedes taxi ground to a halt in a cloud of fine dust outside the wrought iron gates of an older style villa in a quiet, side street of Dokki on the west side of the River Nile.

  I got out, told Mahmoud to wait for me in the shade of a palm tree opposite, and walked up to the gate. I remembered the villa well from last time. It lay in a small courtyard marshalled by two Alsation dogs. They weren't barking yet but looked interested enough to start at any second. The big, flat roofed villa lay beyond the dogs and behind two small trees with just a few leaves that offered some small shade.

  There was a was a small brass plate saying "Otaiba Business Consultants" on the concrete pillar of the gate and below it a well polished bell. I pressed it.

  There was no sound audible to my own ear but the dogs heard something and changed from mild and inquisitive creatures into maniacal beasts the like of which I had not seen since the last time I was there. Dogs and I have never got on and I was happy to remain on the outside for the time being to await human intervention. It was quick in coming.

  A well built and stocky woman in a colourful, long dress, her head partially covered in white cloth with gold border emerged, the dogs immediately stopped barking and went timidly to sit in the shade of the trees.

  The woman shuffled forward and, without speaking, unlocked the gate. It swung open and I stepped into the courtyard. The gate was closed again and the dogs stood up to watch me. I followed the woman through the front door of the villa into a small, bare concrete floored room, the only furniture a small desk in one corner covered in papers, a white telephone and a rattling air conditioning unit on the wall. There was an empty swivel chair behind the desk and a shelf housing business directories in both Arabic and English. The woman passed through and, still without speaking, ushered me through another wooden door at the far end.

  Then she departed and closed the door. It was an exact repeat of my last visit. From the bright sun outside, to this, all I could do was peer into the gloom. From it, exactly as last time, Nagi El Abdeen emerged from behind his large and ornate corner desk and walked across the tiled floor. He smiled and we shook hands.

  Nagi is a small man, probably in his mid fifties. He wore a white, long-sleeved shirt and blue tie. Greyer than before, with his hair now receding badly at the front, he was neat, presentable and wealthy. Nagi was an effective middle man.

  My Arabic is very basic. Fortunately, like so many Egyptians, Nagi's English is good. We sat around a low, glass-topped coffee table surrounded by an ornate, wooden framed sofa and two matching chairs. Nagi ordered tea and the woman brought it. I think she is his wife, but I have never asked and Nagi has never said. We briefly talked generalities as if it was where we had left off last time - business was, as last time, up and down, there were Egyptian troubles, there were European problems and the Arab-Israeli conflict was still unresolved.

  Then: "It’s good to see you again Ian," said Nagi. "I was pleased to hear about the successful prosecution. Your client must have been pleased. The arrogant rich should not be allowed to get away with such fraud especially when inflicted on the poor. What do you think?"

  "I agree, Nagi. It was good to see a successful outcome."

  We drank the tea and then Nagi sat back expectantly - it was my turn to explain the reason for my visit. "So, what is it this time, Ian? What can I do?"

  I knew I had to be careful. Nagi operates behind the scenes. For all his outward appearances he is still, nevertheless, a powerful and influential man who is still well connected with various politicians of different persuasions and he also operates at unspecified levels within the Egyptian Military. He is a fixer and a man who earns commissions or fees from whoever or whatever he knows. But I know many other men like Nagi - some I trust, others I don't. Nagi falls mostly into the trustable category but there is always a need for caution and no chance at all of getting away with anything that might end up hurting Nagi himself.

  "Let me say from the outset, Nagi, that I am here on what is my own private business. There is no client involved now although, I have to admit, I started off with one."

  “It is unlike you to lose a client, Ian,” Nagi laughed and leaned forward to pat my knee.

  "On this occasion, they lost me, Nagi," I smiled back. "Sometimes I accept a challenge without the need for a fee." I then paused and spoke slowly to maximise the impact of what I was about to say.

  "And the challenge is a big one, Nagi. It involves the pharmaceutical industry and research on infectious diseases. You will know that we have had many scares recently about the spread of viruses like SARS and bird flu. The world is densely populated, air travel is common, buses and public transport systems are at breaking point. It is very easy for a lethal virus to spread very quickly. And when there is no cure or vaccine available it can have devastating results. Just think about Cairo, Nagi and how quickly a virus could spread?"

  Nagi nodded philosophically.

  "There is a new virus, Nagi. But the problem with this virus is that it is man-made. You see, it is not difficult with modern technology to create new viruses. It is a bit like designing a new car. You begin with deciding what type of car you want, what it will be used for, how big it needs to be, who it might appeal to. There are many laboratories that can design new viruses or change existing ones. And some of the laboratories are privately run. They all, whether public or private, get funded from somewhere. They often do this sort of research for academic reasons. Old, inquisitive, scientists used to like mixing things together just to see what happened. Many modern scientists do the same with viruses. It is called gain of function research. In other words you can create a novel virus that does something different or you design it to do exactly what you want it to do. If you wanted to create a flu virus that cannot be cured with current anti-flu drugs then that would be quite possible.

  "I believe a private company now has such a virus. I believe it has already been tested and it kills. It is similar to influenza and so it could spread very easily and very quickly. This new virus could now be released deliberately into densely populated areas like Cairo. It would be like biological warfare - a war waged by a private company.

  "But the creators of the virus, the people who run the business, will probably be immune because they also have a vaccine or a treatment. They can decide who gets the treatment. But add to that the fact that there may only be small stocks of this treatment available and its effectiveness is uncertain, it is not difficult to imagine that the outcome would be catastrophic.

  "But why would a company want to do that? Most likely for profit but I suspect there are other motives as well, especially for the scientists involved. They want to deliberately reduce the world population in exactly the same way that bubonic plague, the black death, once killed millions."

  I stopped. Nagi was staring at me. He had hardly blinked.

  I then finished what I wanted to say. "I believe that the company with this virus is probably based in Egypt."

  Nagi blinked. "Why do you say that?" he asked calmly.

  "I'm a private investigator, Nagi, but I'm also a businessman. An investigator investigates and a good businessman does his market research. You know that , Nagi. Then he uses logic, his past experience and a bit of intuition."

  "So who is it?"
r />   This was the tricky part. I wanted to be able to point my finger directly at someone or something but couldn't. Instead, I said: "I'm looking at three businesses. Two of them I know something about. The third one is less easy and that is why I need some help."

  Nagi got up and wandered to his desk.

  "You are making some very serious allegations, Ian. You are saying that there are three companies in Egypt that are escaping the attention of any inspections or other formalities that Egyptian companies need to comply with in order to trade locally or internationally." It was very well put.

  "Yes," I said. "But there is a much bigger problem here, Nagi I am not pointing a finger at Egyptian authorities and saying you are failing to do your job, because they probably are. The fact is that there are no controls in place to stop a company doing this sort of thing whether they are in Egypt, America, Europe, Japan or China. Some people, senior scientists, have warned against lack of proper controls for years but no-one does anything. Some say the technology poses risks more serious than anything that has gone before, and that includes the risk of nuclear war. But unlike past arms races, no-one talks about it. The public are left in total ignorance.

  "Organisations and companies who engage in this type of work can be inspected for compliance with good manufacturing practices, every conceivable official standard and every other part of their business that bureaucrats can dream up including checks on health and safety and employment law, their tax and even signs of bribery and corruption. Once they've got a product to sell they might need approvals and registrations which is more paperwork.

  "But, in the meantime, no-one asks what the scientists and technicians in their white coats and nice clean laboratories are actually doing with their test tubes. Even if they did, they could be lied to and the boffins with their clip boards would write down exactly what they had been told. A box is ticked and away they go. Often, the only time anyone gets to know what's going on is if a scientist on an ego trip writes a paper or stands up at a conference or fills out a form to ask for a bit more funding.

  "It's happening everywhere, Nagi, and I am not here to accuse Egyptian authorities of gross negligence or other failings.

  "And another thing, Nagi. You might think I'm suggesting it's some big name international corporation like a pharmaceutical giant operating in Egypt. I am not. I am talking about small to medium sized businesses that you have probably never ever heard of. "

  Nagi came to sit at the small table again. "More tea?"