Analog SFF, April 2010
Page 23
Scott T. Meissner
Ithaca, N.Y.
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Dear Sir:
Jeffrey Kooistra uses his latest (November 2009) Alternate View as a platform to express his dissent from the scientific consensus regarding global warming. This is both his right as an American citizen and the way that good science gets done, since scientific truth is established by an appeal to facts, rather than authority or consensus. However, I see at least three flaws in his argument for greater skepticism regarding global warming.
First of all, the surface temperature measurements are only one of many confirmatory strands of data regarding global warming. Among other things, there is the accelerated retreat of glaciers in the northern hemisphere and sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean. There is also satellite measurement of surface temperature, the changing (poleward) ranges of many different animal species, and much more evidence too extensive to cite in a letter to the editor.
A second flaw is the methodology presented as refuting the reliability of surface temperature measurements. The weatherman he cites, visited three (of 1,221) monitoring stations near his home and on that basis dismisses all surface temperature data in consequence. To put it mildly, this sampling procedure is somewhat deficient.
The final flaw, also related to the surface temperature records, is that the change that supposedly invalidated the results happened in 1979, exactly thirty years ago as I write. My understanding is that the most pronounced increase in the temperature “hockey stick” has occurred in the past twenty years. I suggest that it is unlikely that a change in 1979 only started affecting the temperature readings in 1990 and later.
I believe that Mr. Kooistra would be on somewhat better ground criticizing the anthropogenic hypothesis regarding the causes of global warming than the factual basis of global warming. Even there, it is notable that the most strident critics of the human origins are those whose economic interests would be most drastically affected by development of a carbon neutral energy system (e.g.; oil and coal producers or public officials from states with such interests). And where did the extra CO2 in the atmosphere come from, if not burning fossil fuels, which had sequestered the carbon for hundreds of millions of years?
In any case, his Alternate View column certainly was provocative.
John Howard Brown, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
School of Economic Development,
Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA
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Dear Stan,
Since my November 2009 column drew so many comments, I've decided that the best way to reply is in an upcoming Alternate View. I do want to clear up one apparent misconception: I am not entirely skeptical of global warming in and of itself. Given any arbitrary century-long period, it would be odd indeed if the average temperature wasn't trending up or down a little bit during that slice of Earth history, whether humans exist or not. So for it to have gotten a tad bit warmer from 1900 to 2000 would not surprise me one bit. What I am intensely skeptical of is the excessive certainty global warming proponents attach to their claims, both to those of gloom and doom, and to the faultlessness of their methodology.
I am delighted that the column stirred up so much debate, as I had hoped it would, and I want to thank everyone, even those who took me to task, for weighing in.
Best,
Jeff
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Reader's Department: UPCOMING EVENTS by Anthony Lewis
14-16 May 2010
LEPRECON 36 (Phoenix area SF conference) at Phoenix Marriott Mesa, Mesa, AZ. Writer Guest of Honor: George R. R. Martin; Artist Guest of Honor: Charles Vess; Local Guest of Honor: James A. Owen. Membership: $40 until 30 April 2010, $45 at the door. Info: leprecon.org/lep36/; leprecon@ leprecon.org; (480) 945-6890; PO Box 26665, Tempe, AZ 85285.
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21-23 May 2010
IMAGICON (Alabama area SF conference) at Birmingham, AL. Guests include: Darrell Osborn, Allen Hammack, Ash Evans, Daniel Taylor, M.B. Weston. Membership: $40 (special rate, may expire; regular $55). Info: imagicon.org/imagine2010/.
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27-29 August 2010
AU CONTRAIRE (31st New Zealand national SF conference) at Quality Hotel, Wellington, New Zealand (stop in on the way to Aussiecon). Guest of Honor: Sean Williams; Fan Guest of Honor: Paul Mannering. Membership: NZ$ 60; Supporting: NZ$ 15; Friday only: NZ$ 20; Saturday only: NZ$ 40; Sunday only: NZ$ 40. Info: www.aucontraire. org.nz/; info@aucontraire.org.nz; PO Box 10104, Wellington 6143, New Zealand.
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2-6 September 2010
AUSSIECON FOUR (68th World Science Fiction Convention) at Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Guest of Honor: Kim Stanley Robinson; Artist Guest of Honor: Shaun Tan; Fan Guest of Honor: Robin Johnson. Membership from 1 September 2009 until some later date (see website for latest details): AUD 275, USD 225, CAD 255, GBP 140, EUR 1165, JPY 22,500; supporting membership AUD 70, USD 50, CAD 50, GBP 25, EUR 35, JPY 4900. This is the SF universe's annual get-together. Professionals and readers from all over the world will be in attendance. Talks, panels, films, fancy dress competition—the works. Nominate and vote for the Hugos. Info: www. aussiecon4.org.au/, info@aussiecon4.org.au, GPO Box 1212, Melbourne, Victoria, AUSTRALIA 3001
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Running a convention? If your convention has a telephone or fax number, e-mail address, or web page, please let us know so that we can publish this information. We must have your information in hand SIX months before the date of your convention.
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Attending a convention? When calling conventions for information, do not call collect and do not call too late in the evening. It is best to include a S.A.S.E. when requesting information; include an International Reply Coupon if the convention is in a different country.
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Copyright © 2010 Anthony Lewis
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Analog Science Fiction and Fact (Astounding), Vol. CXXX, No. 4, April 2010. ISSN 1059-2113, USPS 488-910, GST#123054108. Published monthly except for combined January/February and July/August double issues by Dell Magazines, a division of Crosstown Publications. One-year subscription $55.90 in the United States and possessions, in all other countries $65.90 (GST included in Canada), payable in advance in U.S. funds. First copy of new subscription will be mailed within eight weeks of receipt of order. When reporting change of address allow 6 to 8 weeks and give new address as well as the old address as it appears on the last label. Periodical postage paid at Norwalk, CT and additional mailing offices. Canadian postage paid at Montreal, Quebec, Canada Post International Publications Mail, Product Sales Agreement No. 40012460. (c) 2010 by Dell Magazines, a division of Crosstown Publications, all rights reserved. Dell is a trademark registered in the U.S. Patent Office. Protection secured under the Universal Copyright Convention. Reproduction or use of editorial or pictorial content in any manner without express permission is prohibited. All stories in this magazine are fiction. No actual persons are designated by name or character. Any similarity is coincidental. All submissions must be accompanied by a stamped self-addressed envelope, the publisher assumes no responsibility for unsolicited manuscripts or artwork.
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