THE SHIELD OF ACHILLES

by Bobbitt, Philip

  Richelieu, Armand-Jean du Plessis, Cardinal (1585 – 1642): French chief minister (1629 – 1642), 501 – 3, 511 – 12, 516 – 17, 831, 892

  Rifkind, Malcolm, 461

  Roberts, Michael, 69 – 73, 98, 100 – 1, 112 – 14, 835, 837 – 8, 864 – 5, 867, 882, 886, 890, 898

  Roosevelt, Franklin (1882 – 1945): U.S. president (1933 – 1945), 43, 217, 229, 334, 360, 362, 604, 631, 695, 833, 899

  Roosevelt, Theodore (1858 – 1919): U.S. president (1901 – 1909), 244, 360, 370, 373, 377, 388, 390, 392, 394

  Rosenau, James, 255, 847, 898

  Rosencrance, Richard, 257

  Rwanda, 7, 37, 250, 269, 283, 300, 361, 428, 451, 598, 763, 757, 801

  “safe area”: regional town declared under protection of U.N., 425 – 6, 442

  Sarajevo: capital of Bosnia, 26, 325 – 6, 416, 421,424 – 6, 428 – 31, 433, 442 – 3, 445, 447, 454, 457,461 – 2, 464 – 6, 478, 860, 862

  Saxe, Hermann Maurice (1696 – 1750): French (German-born) marshal, 140

  Scanlan, John, 447

  scenario planning: creates hypothetical, alternative stories about the future that share certain factual assumptions but differ based on decisions made within each scenario, 314, 315, 717 – 19, 885

  Scharnhorst, Gerhard Johann David von (1755 – 1813): Prussian general and strategist, 177 – 8, 185, 189

  Schroeder, Gerhard (1944– ): chancellor of Germany (1998– ), 339,845

  Schroeder, Paul, 172, 176, 841 – 2, 899

  Schwartz, Benjamin, 250

  Simes, Dimitri, 438, 860

  Simulation, 295, 318, 330, 745

  Six-Day War (1967 Arab-Israeli conflict), 474

  Smith, Rupert, 426

  Smith, Tony, 213, 266, 847

  South Korea, 9, 51 – 2, 59, 218, 311, 472, 655, 672, 688 – 9, 703, 724, 745,882

  South Viet Nam, 9, 58 – 9, 278

  Soviet Union, 15, 24, 30, 33, 40,43, 45 – 7, 61, 215, 228, 242, 245, 249 – 51, 260, 261, 270, 275 – 6, 295, 307, 319 – 20, 327 – 8, 360, 417, 465, 572, 607, 609 – 10, 612 – 16

  Spanish Civil War (1936 – 1939): uprising in which conservatives and right-wing elements overthrew the second Spanish republic, 19, 24, 30, 40

  Spanish Fury (1574): unpaid Spanish troops sacked Antwerp in a gruesome massacre, 495

  Sparta (Greek city-state), 8, 21, 332

  Spinoza, Baruch (also Benedict de Spinoza) (1632 – 1677): Dutch philosopher, 518 – 19, 528 – 9, 596

  Srebrenica: Bosnia village, scene of 1995 massacre, 416, 424, 426, 435 – 6, 440, 450 – 1, 454, 459, 462, 468, 481, 862

  Staats raison, 135

  Stalin, Josef (1879 – 1953): Soviet political figure; dictator (1929 – 1953), 29 – 30, 43, 45 – 7, 51 –3, 217, 280, 326 – 7, 418, 613, 615, 623, 655, 695, 832, 835, 844, 872, 880, 889, 900

  state-nation: constitutional order that achieved dominance in the nineteenth century; it sought popular allegiance on grounds that State would exalt the nation, 144 – 204

  Steinberg, James B., 10, 265, 462

  strategic planning, 7, 48, 296, 304, 309, 314, 315, 716 – 18, 722, 903

  Suarez, Francisco (1548 – 1617): Spanish philosopher and Jesuit theologian, 489, 491 – 4, 641, 865, 899

  Talleyrand, Charles Maurice de (1754 – 1838): French bishop, diplomat, and politician; foreign minister (1797 – 1807, 1814 – 1815); represented France at Congress of Vienna (1814 – 1815), 160, 162, 166, 259, 548, 550 – 1, 553 – 4, 556 – 62, 869 – 71

  Tarnoff, Peter, 457

  tercio: sixteenth century Spanish infantry formation of 3,000 men, with equal numbers of pikemen and musketeers, 97, 99

  territorial state: constitutional order that dominated the eighteenth century, 95, 107, 118 – 20, 122, 124 – 6, 129, 130, 132 – 140, 143, 148, 152, 155 – 7, 159, 173, 175, 505, 523 – 5, 527 – 31, 535 – 6, 538 – 9, 541, 543, 551 – 2, 560, 564, 870

  terrorism, 219, 236, 256, 264, 282, 289, 296, 298 – 9, 310, 322, 336, 338, 441, 466, 474, 510, 663, 690, 697, 704, 720, 727, 730 – 1, 735, 746, 760, 772, 791, 804 – 5, 819 – 22, 850

  Thatcher, Margaret Hilda (1925– ): British prime minister (1979 – 1990), 222, 256, 339, 356, 633, 637, 667, 685, 687, 875

  Thirty Years' War (1618 – 1648): religious war that raged within the Holy Roman Empire and eventually drew all of Europe into the conflict, 17, 21 – 2, 41, 54, 69, 72, 91, 106 – 7, 109 – 10, 113 – 4, 116 – 20, 125, 133, 136, 143, 173, 202, 279, 295, 334, 344, 346

  Throckmorton conspiracy (1583): conspiracy to murder Queen Elizabeth, 497

  Thucydides (c. 460 B.C.-400 B.C.): Greek general and historian; wrote The History of the Peloponnesian War, 21, 23, 30, 81, 332, 334, 511, 830, 831, 894, 898

  Tibet, 470

  Tilly, Charles, 96, 115, 174, 334, 469

  Tirpitz, Alfred von (1849 – 1930): German admiral; directed submarine warfare in World War I, 382

  Tito, Marshal (also Josip Broz) (1892 – 1980): Yugoslav communist partisan leader in World War II, first secretary-general of Yugoslavian Communist Party (1936 – 1980); president (1953 – 1980); Non-Aligned Movement leader, 418 – 438, 447 – 8, 478

  Tojo, Hideki (1885 – 1948): Japanese general, and Fascist prime minister (1941 – 1944), 37, 844

  Tokugawa regime (1603 – 1867): held the shogunate and controlled Japan, 41,42

  Tonelson, Alan, 246, 248, 250, 846 – 7

  Torcy, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Marquis de (1665 – 1746): French secretary of state at Utrecht negotiations, 128, 522 – 5

  Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1918): World War I peace treaty between Soviet Russia and the Central Powers, 28, 572

  Treaty of Cateau-Cambrésis (1559): signed by France, Spain, and England; ended the sixty-year conflict between Spain and France begun in the Italian Wars, 487, 489, 520

  Tudjman, Franco (1922 – 1999): Croatian nationalist leader; first president of independent Croatia (1991 – 1999), 419 – 20, 446

  Tushnet, Mark, 229, 845, 853, 900

  Tuzla: U.N. designated “safe area” in Bosnia, 424, 426, 435, 442

  “two and one-half” war scenario (also 2MRC—Major Regional Conflicts): U.S. policy of preparedness to fight two major regional conflicts and a smaller intervention simultaneously, 248

  Ukraine, 253, 280, 635, 683 – 4, 746 – 7, 750, 759, 763, 766, 799, 880

  unitary executive, 236

  United Nations (U.N.), 43, 45, 51 – 2, 54, 96, 169, 267, 298, 319, 356, 360, 364, 384, 416, 421, 423, 430, 434, 437, 445, 449, 451, 458 – 9, 471, 473 – 4

  Unprofor (United Nations Protection Force in former Yugoslavia), 443, 445, 458 – 62

  Ustaša: Croatian Fascist paramilitaries, 417

  Vance, Cyrus (1917 – 2002): U.S. secretary of state (1977 – 1980); co-developer of Vance-Owen Plan, 421, 423, 862

  Vance-Owen Plan, 423, 425, 436, 440, 457, 464, 862

  Vattel, Emerich de (1714 – 1767): Swiss diplomat who drew attention to Wolff's theories of international law, 131, 528, 531 – 7, 839, 868 – 9, 900

  Venice, 83 – 4, 90, 120, 159, 488, 561

  Viet Nam War, 8 – 9, 19, 24, 31,44, 55, 58 – 9, 213, 254, 278, 292, 297, 301, 320, 394, 655, 747, 760, 766, 783 – 4, 835, 882

  Viner, Jacob (1892 – 1970): American economics professor, 12

  Vitoria, Francisco de (1492 – 1546): Franciscan monk often called the father of international law, 489 – 92, 641, 864 – 5, 877, 900

  Vojvodina: formerly a semi-autonomous province in Serbia with large Hungarian population, 418 – 9, 422

  Voltaire (pseudonym of François Marie Arouet) (1694 – 1778): French philosopher, and satirist; a leading intellectual of the Enlightenment, 131, 839

  Wallenstein, Albrecht Eusebius Wenzel von (1583 – 1634): Austrian (Bohemian-born) warlord in Thirty Years' War; suppressed Bohemian revolt (1618 – 1620), 71, 111, 115

  Waltz, Kenneth, 263, 683 – 4, 847, 882, 900

  Warren, Earl (1891 – 1974): chief justice of U.S. Supreme Court (1954 – 1969
), 238

  wars of Louis XIV (1667 – 1714), 334

  Wars of the French Revolution/Napoleonic Wars (1792 – 1815): pitted France against all the other major states of Europe, sometimes in coalition, sometimes alone, 41, 146, 175, 203, 346

  Wars of the Italian Peninsula (1494 – 1559): succession of regional wars instigated by the great powers of Europe in order to control the Italian states; the French invasion of Italy spurred the transition from the rule of princes to that of princely states and the formation of the modern state, 334

  Watergate Affair (1972 – 1974): political scandal growing out of 1972 U.S. presidential election that led to the resignation of U.S. president Richard Nixon, 322, 763

  Watson, Adam, 77, 358, 488, 835 – 9, 853–4, 864, 890, 899 – 900

  Weber, Max (1864 – 1920): philosopher of social science, 100, 829, 837, 900

  Wedgwood, C. V., 120, 508, 831, 838, 866, 900, 902

  Weinberger Doctrine (of U.S. intervention), 296 – 8, 317, 803

  Wellington, (Arthur Wellesley), Duke of (1769 – 1852): British general and statesman; defeated French in Spain and subsequently at Waterloo (1815); British prime minister (1828 – 1830), 151, 157, 160, 166, 170, 545, 554, 561, 575, 719, 840

  Western European Union (WEU), 261, 633, 746 – 7, 847

  Wiesel, Elie, 451, 859

  William I (also Wilhelm I) (1797– 1888): king of Prussia (1861 – 1888); kaiser of Germany (1871 – 1888), 134, 186, 192, 196, 198, 200, 529, 608

  William I of Orange (William the Silent) (1533 – 1584): Dutch general and statesman; founded Dutch Republic; first stadholder of Holland (1579 – 1584); assassinated, 107, 132, 142,492

  William III (1650 – 1702): king of England, Scotland, and Ireland (1689 – 1702), 124 – 6, 128, 138, 166, 177

  Wilson, (Thomas) Woodrow (1856 – 1924): U.S. president (1913 – 1921), 31, 35, 213, 243, 280, 281, 334, 367 – 410, 475 – 6, 478, 573 – 9, 631, 637, 659, 661 – 2, 782, 852, 854, 856 – 7, 900

  Wolff, Christian (1679 – 1754): German political philosopher, 528 – 35, 537

  World Bank: international institution devoted to economic improvement of underdeveloped world, 255 – 6, 364, 383, 754, 766, 776, 800

  World Trade Organization (WTO), 255, 316, 337, 728, 813

  World War I (1914 – 1919), 24, 26 – 7, 31 – 2, 34 – 5, 37, 40, 63, 110, 203, 213, 216, 247, 283, 293, 355, 383, 452, 603, 631, 662, 692, 831, 840, 877

  World War II, 16, 24, 26, 33, 35 – 6, 43 – 4, 46, 48, 146, 222, 263, 400, 418, 698, 789, 830, 833, 890, 895 – 6, 899

  Yugoslav National Army (JNA), 418 – 22, 427 – 8, 430 – 1, 433, 438, 441 – 4, 459

  Yugoslav Wars: First, in Slovenia (1991); Second, in Croatia (1991 – 1992); Third, in Bosnia (1992 – 1995); and Fourth, in Kosovo (1999), 432, 481, 805

  Zepa: U.N. declared “safe area” in Bosnia, 416, 424, 426, 436, 442, 450

  Zimmermann, Warren, 464, 858, 900

  Zollverein: nineteenth-century German economic union, 470

  PERMISSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  Grateful acknowledgment is made to the following for permission to reprint previoulsy published material:

  Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC:poem “May 24, 1980” from TO Uraniaby Joseph Brodsky. copyright ©1988 by Joseph Brodsky. Reprinted by permission of Farrar, straus and Giroux, LLC.

  Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC and Faber and Faber Ltd.:poems “Homage to Government” and “MCMXIV” from Collected Poemsby Philip Larkin. Copyright © 1988, 1989 by the Estate of Philip Larkin. Rights outside the United States administered by Faber and Faber Ltd. London. Reprinted by permission of Faber and Faber Ltd. and Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC.

  Graywolf Press:poem “At the Bomb Testing Site” from The Way It Is: New & Selected Poemsby William Stafford. Copyright ©1960, 1988 by the Estate of William Stafford. Reprinted by permission of Graywolf Press, Saint Paul, Minnesota.

  Harcouty, Inc.:poem “The Terrorist He's Watching” from View with a Grain of Sandby Wislawa Szymborska, English translation by Stanislaw Baranczak and Clare Cavanagh. Copyright © 1993 by Wislawa Szymborska, English translation copyright © 1995 by Harcourt, Inc. Reprinted by perimission of Harcourt, Inc.

  Harpercollins Publishers Inc.:poem “Sarajevo” from Facing the River: New Poems byCzeslaw Milosz, translated by the author and Robert Hass. Copyright © 1995 by Czeslaw Milosz Royalties, Inc. Poem “Preparation” from The Collected Poems, 1931-1987by Czeslaw Milosz and translated by Robert Hass. Copyright © 1988 by Czeslaw Milosz Royalties, Inc. Reprinted by permission of HarperCollins Publishers Inc.

  Czeslaw Milosz:poem “From Mythology” by Zbigniew Herbert, from Postwar Polish Poetrytranslated by Czeslaw Milosz. English translation copyright © 1965 by Czeslaw Milosz. Reprinted by permission of Czeslaw Milosz.

  Random House,Inc.:poem “Shield of Achilles” from W. H. Auden: Collected Poemsby W. H. Auden. Copyright © 1965 by W.H. Auden. Reprinted by permission of Random House, Inc.

  Viking Penguin:Excerpts from The Iliadby Homer, translated by Robert Fagles. Copyright © 1990 by Robert Fagles. Reproduced by permission of Viking Penguin, a division of Penguin Putnam Inc.

  *A target or threat-based strategy depends upon retaliating against enemy assets. The threat of retaliation against known targets keeps the peace. A vulnerability-centered strategy employs various defenses to keep the peace when the targets for retaliation are unknown.

  †Intrawar deterrence can dampen escalation, as parties already at war nevertheless refrain from aggressive acts that would lower the costs of retaliation for those acts to the retaliator.

  *By State I mean a political community that bears international status, like Germany or India, not a subdomain or province like Hesse or Bengal (or Texas). By nation I mean an ethno-cultural group.

  *This is the true import of Clausewitz's celebrated remark that “war is the continuation of politics by other means.”

  *A great power is a state capable of initiating an epochal war, that is, a conflict that threatens the constitutional survival of the leaders of the society of states. Attacks by lesser states can be swiftly rebuffed (as Iraq learned in the Gulf War). Even a state whose forces can be decisive in a particular campaign—like North Viet Nam's—can neither initiate nor terminate an epochal war. Its attacks are insufficient to call the constitutional survival of its adversary into question or to settle such questions when they are posed by others.

  *Even a thoughtful commentator can succumb to this fallacy, as when Michael Mandelbaum asserted that the NATO mission had failed because the people of the Balkans “emerged from the war considerably worse off than they had been before.” James Steinberg, “A Perfect Polemic,” Foreign Affairs (November/December 1999): 129.

  *Written before September 11, 2001; see the epilogue.

  *This development is discussed in more detail in 8.

  †“The emergence of the German empire (in 1871) as a result of three short successful wars provided no final settlement of the problems in Central Europe. [Far from it, for] the unification of Germany gave great impetus to nationalist movements throughout the Continent. The means by which it was brought about afforded a dangerous, yet fatally easy pattern for others to follow. Since Germany had been united by force and through union had achieved a predominant position in Europe, other nationalities aspired to attain a greater preeminence than they enjoyed, and to reunite their people in the state by similar means.” Nicholas Mansergh, The Coming of the First World War, 1878 – 1914: A Study in the European Balance (Longmans, Green, and Co., 1949).

  *“It seemed clear that whatever else they had achieved, Fischer and his school had finally laid to rest the legend that in 1914 all the Great Powers had, in Lloyd George's now hackneyed phrase, ‘slithered all over the brink into the boiling cauldron of war.’” Roger Fletcher, “Introduction,” in Fritz Fischer, From Kaiserreich to Third Reich: Elements of Continuity in German History, 1871 – 1945 (Allen & Unwin, 1986).

  *See Chapter 22.

&
nbsp; *Including the uprisings in the Low Countries that were part of the War of Spanish Succession. This incorporation of civil and interstate conflicts is also a theme in Thucydides.

  *Nor are these various explanations incompatible with the claim of one long war; see, for example, Taylor, Origins of the Second World War, who ends his book with the words “Such were the origins of the second World War, or rather of the war between the three Western Powers over the settlement of Versailles; a war which had been implicit since the moment when the first war ended” (278).