Grand Pursuit
Page 61
8. John Maynard Keynes, Tract on Monetary Reform, 1923.
9. Ibid.
10. Quoted in D. E. Moggridge, Keynes: An Economists’ Biography (London: Routledge, 1992), 429.
11. John Maynard Keynes, A Short View of Russia (London: Hogarth Press, 1925).
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. Norman and Jean MacKenzie, eds., The Diary of Beatrice Webb, vol. 4, 1924–1943: The Wheel of Life (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985) (August 9, 1926).
15. John Maynard Keynes, “My Visit to Berlin,” Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 10, 383–84; “Das Ende des Laissez-Faire, Ideen zur Verbindung von Privat und Gemeinwirtschaft” [The End of Laissez-Faire: Ideas for Combining the Private and Public Economy], Zeitschrift für die Gesamte Staatswissenschaft 82 (1927): 190–91. A review of a lecture given by Keynes in Berlin. In papers: October 1925–June 1926 correspondence, autograph manuscript “My Visit to Berlin,” June 23, “The General Strike,” June 24, given to Berlin University; Conditions in Germany; Keynes at Melchior’s apartment in Berlin for dinner, 1926 visit; source: Felix Somary, Erinnerungen Aus Meinem Leben, (Zurich: 1926), 199.
16. The Letters of Virginia Woolf, vol. 3.
17. John Maynard Keynes addressing the National Liberal Federation, March 27, 1928, quoted in Robert Skidelsky, John Maynard Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 1920–1937 (London: Macmillan, 1992), 297.
18. Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 231.
19. Ibid., 232.
20. Charles Loch Mowat, Britain Between the Wars, 1918–1940 (London: Methuen and Co., 1956), 262.
21. Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 258.
22. John Maynard Keynes to H. G. Wells, January 18, 1928.
23. Mowat, Britain Between the Wars, 349.
24. Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 302.
25. Irving Norton Fisher, My Father: Irving Fisher (New York: Comet Press, 1956), 171.
26. Alan Milward, War, Economy and Society, 1939–1945 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1979), 17.
27. Angus Maddison, “Statistics of World Population, GDP, per Capita GDP, 1–2008 AD,” www.ggdc.net/maddison/.
28. Joseph Schumpeter, “The Decade of the Twenties,” American Economic Review, 1946 and “Business Cycle Dates,” National Bureau of Economic Research.
29. Geoffrey Keynes, quoted in D. E. Moggridge, Maynard Keynes: An Economist’s Biography (London: Routledge, 1992), 103.
30. Irving Norton Fisher, My Father: Irving Fisher, 200.
31. Ibid., 232.
32. Ibid., 117–18.
33. Irving Fisher, address to the American Public Health Association, October 23, 1926.
34. Irving Fisher et al., Report on National Vitality, bulletin 30 of the Committee of One Hundred on Public Health (Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1908), 1.
35. Irving Fisher, Stabilizing the Dollar (New York: Macmillan, 1920), 75.
36. Irving Fisher, The Purchasing Power of Money: Its Determination and Relation to Credit Interest and Crises (New York: Macmillan, 1912).
37. Irving Fisher, “Our Unstable Dollar and the So-Called Business Cycle,” Journal of the American Statistical Association (June 1925): 181.
38. John Maynard Keynes, “Opening remarks: The Galton Lecture,” Eugenics Review, vol. 38, no. 1 (1946), 39–40.
39. See Robert W. Dimand, “Economists and ‘the Other’ Before 1912,” The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, July 2005, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0254/is_3_64/ai_n15337798/?tag=content;col1, and New International Year Book (New York: Dodd Meade & Co., 1913).
40. Irving Fisher, “Lecture on The Irving Fisher Foundation,” Collected Works, vol. I (1997), 35.
41. Ibid.
42. Irving Fisher, “Our Unstable Dollar and the So-Called Business Cycle,” 197.
43. Irving Fisher, “Depressions and Money Problems,” April 4, 1941.
44. Irving Fisher, “I Discovered the Phillips Curve: ‘A statistical relation between unemployment and price changes’ ” Journal of Political Economy 81, no 2; 496–502, reprinted from International Labour Review, 1926.
45. Irving Fisher, New York Times, September 2, 1923.
46. Irving Fisher, “The Unstable Dollar and the So-called Bisiness Cycle” (1925). 179–202.
47. Irving Fisher, “A Statistical Relation Between Unemployment and Price Changes” (1926), 496–502.
48. Ibid.
49. Irving Fisher, Battle Creek Sanitarium News, 25, 7, July 1925.
50. Irving Norton Fisher, My Father: Irving Fisher, 57.
51. Ibid., 192, from autobiographical appendix in Stable Money, A History of the Movement.
52. Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).
53. Irving Norton Fisher, My Father: Irving Fisher, 264.
54. Recent Economic Changes in the United States (Chicago: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1929), xii.
55. “Fisher Sees Stocks Permanently High,” New York Times, October 16, 1929.
X: MAGNETO TROUBLE: KEYNES AND FISHER IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION
1. Arnold J. Toynbee, Journal of International Affairs, 1931, 1.
2. David Fettig, “Something Unanticipated Happened,” in The Region (Minneapolis: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2000).
3. John Maynard Keynes to F. C. Scott, August 15, 1934.
4. John Maynard Keynes, “A British View of the Wall Street Slump,” New York Evening Post, October 25, 1929.
5. Charles A. Selden, “Big British Labor Gains; Third of Vote Counted; Tory Control Seems Lost,” New York Times, May 31, 1929, 1.
6. Winston Churchill, “Disposal of Surplus,” Hansard 1803–2005, April 15, 1929, Commons Sitting, Orders of the Day, www.hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1929/apr/15/disposal-of-surplus.
7. Lionel Robbins, Autobiography of an Economist (London: Macmillan, 1971), 151.
8. John Maynard Keynes to Lydia Keynes, 1929.
9. Joseph J. Thorndike, “Tax Cuts, Confidence, and Presidential Leadership,” September 8, 2008, www.taxhistory.org/thp/readings.nsf/.
10. John Maynard Keynes, “The Great Slump of 1930,” The Nation & Athenæum, December 20, 1930, and December 27, 1930, www.gutenberg.ca/ebooks/keynes-slump/keynes-slump-00-h.html.
11. John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory, book 6, chapter 22, section 3 (London: Macmillan, 1936), 322.
12. Keynes, “The Great Slump,” Nation.
13. Ibid.
14. Godfrey Harold Hardy, “Mathematical Proof,” in Raymond George Ayoub, Musings of the Masters: An Anthology of Mathematical Reflections (New York: American Mathematical Association, 2004), 59.
15. Keynes, The Great Slump of 1930.
16. Robert Skidelsky, John Maynard Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 1920–1937 (London: Macmillan, 1992), 333.
17. Minority Report, 35, 507n, 657–59, 660, 661, 662.
18. Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 32.
19. Sir John Anderson to Ramsay MacDonald, July 31, 1930.
20. October 20, 1930.
21. Ross McKibbin, “The Economic Policy of the Second Labour Government, 1929–1931,” Past and Present 65 (1975); 95–123.
22. Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 524.
23. Irving Fisher, September 2, 1929, quoted in Kathryn M. Dominguez, Ray C. Fair, Matthew D. Shapiro, “Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale,” American Economic Review 78, no. 4 (September 1988); 607.
24. “Fisher Sees Stocks Permanently High,” New York Times, October 16, 1929, 8.
25. Irving Fisher, January 6, 1930, Collected Works, ed. Robert Barber, vol. 14, 4.
26. Harvard Economic Society, Weekly Letter, vols. 8 and 9 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1929), quoted in Dominguez et al., “Forecasting the Depression,” 606.
27. Irving Fisher, The Stock Market Crash and After (New York: Macmillan, 1930).
28. Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1971).
29. “Scores Coolidge in Market Slump,” New York Times, January 12, 1930.
30. Robert W. Dimond, “Irving Fisher’s Monetary Macroeconomics,” in The Economics of Irving Fisher (London: Elgar, 1999).
31. Irving Norton Fisher, My Father, Irving Fisher, 263.
32. “Harvard Group Sees Debt Plan Benefits: Believes Moratorium Will Balance Exchanges and Remove Pressure on Commodities,” Wall Street Journal, July 17, 1931, 20; “The 1929 Speculation and Today’s Troubles: Controversy as to How Far the ‘Great Boom’ Caused the Great Depression,” New York Times, January 1, 1932, 33.
33. Irving Fisher, “The Stock Market Panic in 1929,” Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, 1930.
34. June 22–23, 1931, quoted in Skidelsky, Keynes, 391.
35. John Maynard Keynes, typewritten notes, King’s College Archive.
36. John Maynard Keynes, discussion leader, typewritten notes, King’s College Archive.
37. Bank of England rate of discount, 1836–1939, National Bureau of Economic Research Macro Data Base, www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/rectdata/13/m13013.dat.
38. Irving Fisher to Ramsay MacDonald, December 1931.
39. Vanessa Bell Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 430.
40. Irving Fisher to Henry Stimson, November 11, 1932, quoted in Fisher, 273.
41. Lauchlin Bernard Currie, Memorandum Prepared by L. B. Currie, P. T. Ellsworth, and H. D. White (Cambridge, Mass., 1932), reprinted in History of Political Economy 34, no. 3 (Fall 2002): 533–52.
42. Irving Fisher to Margaret Fisher, quoted in Irving Norton Fisher, My Father: Irving Fisher, 267.
43. Walter Lippmann, Interpretations 1933–1935 (New York: Macmillan, 1936), 15.
44. K. M. Dominguez, R. C. Fair, and M. D. Shapiro, “Forecasting the Great Depression: Harvard Versus Yale,” American Economic Review, 78 (September, 1988), 595–612.
45. David Fettig, “Something Unanticipated Happened,” (Minneapolis Fed, 2000).
46. Irving Fisher, Booms and Depressions: Some First Principles (New York: Adelphi, 1932).
47. Irving Fisher, “Cancellation of War Debts,” Southwest Foreign Trade Conference Address, July 2, 1931, quoted in Giovanni Pavanelli, “The Great Depression in Irving Fisher’s Thought,” Fifth Annual Conference of the European Society for the History of Economic Thought, February 2001.
48. Irving Fisher, The Depression: Causes and Cures (Miami: Committee of One Hundred, March 1, 1932).
49. “Economists Urge Release of Gold,” New York Times, October 28, 1931.
50. New York Times, December 9, 1931.
51. Irving Fisher, Booms and Depressions, viii.
52. R. G. Tugwell, Brains Trust (New York: Viking, 1964), 97.
53. Kennedy, Freedom from Fear, 113.
54. Tugwell, 98.
55. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Oglethorpe University Commencement Speech, May 22, 1932, http://georgiainfo.galileo.usg.edu/FDRspeeches.htm.
56. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Address to Commonwealth Club, September 23, 1932, San Francisco, in Great Speeches (New York: Courier Dover, 1999).
57. Kennedy, Freedom from Fear, 123.
58. John Maynard Keynes, The Means to Prosperity (London: Macmillan, 1933).
59. Irving Fisher, George Warren of Cornell, and John Commons of the University of Wisconsin to Franklin Roosevelt, February 25, 1933.
60. The New York Times, December 31, 1933.
61. Irving Fisher to Irving Norton Fisher, August 15, 1933.
62. Irving Fisher to Margaret Hazard Fisher, quoted in Irving Norton Fisher, My Father, Irving Fisher.
63. Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 3, 506.
64. Ibid.
65. The New York Times, May 29, 1933.
66. D. E. Moggridge, Maynard Keynes: An Economists’ Biography (London: Routledge, 1992), 584.
67. Irving Fisher to Howe (FDR’s secretary), May 18, 1934.
68. Irving Fisher to Margaret Hazard Fisher, June 7, 1934.
69. John Maynard Keynes, American Economic Review, 1933.
70. John Maynard Keynes, Lecture Notes
71. Quoted in Skidelsky, Keynes, 503.
72. John Maynard Keynes to George Bernard Shaw, January 1, 1935.
73. Marriner S. Eccles, Fortune, April 1937, reproduced in The Lessons of Monetary Experience: Essays in Honor of Irving Fisher Presented to Him on the Occasion of His 70th Birthday (New York: Farrar and Rhinehart, 1937), 6.
74. Friedrich Hayek, Austrian Institute of Economic Research Report, February 1929.
75. Friedrich A. Hayek, interview. Gold and Silver Newsletter (Newport Beach, Calif.: Monex International, June, 1976).
76. Lionel Robbins, The Great Depression, 1934.
77. Ibid.
78. Robbins, Autobiography of an Economist, 154.
79. Skidelsky, Keynes, vol. 2, The Economist as Savior, 469.
80. Beatrice Webb, quoted in José Harris, William Beveridge: A Biography (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1977), 330.
81. Fritz Machlup to Barbara Chernow, June 12, 1978.
82. John Maynard Keynes “The Pure Theory of Money: A Reply to Dr. Hayek,” Econometrica, vol. 11 (November, 1931), 387–97.
83. Alan Ebenstein, Friedrich Hayek: A Biography (New York: Palgrave, 2001), 81.
84. Erich Schneider, Joseph A. Schumpeter: Leben und Werk eines grossen Sozialekonomenen [Life and Work of a Great Social Scientist]
85. Harold James, The German Slump: Politics and Economics, 1924–1936 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1986), 6.
86. Joseph Schumpeter, “The Present World Depression: A Tentative Diagnosis,” in American Economic Association, Proceedings, March 31, 1931.
87. Joseph Dorfman, The Economic Mind in America, vol. 4, 168.
88. Joseph Schumpeter, to Rev. Harry Emerson Fosdick at Riverside Church, April 19, 1933.
89. Douglas V. Brown, The Economics of the Recovery Program (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1934), reprinted in Joseph Schumpeter, Essays: On Entrepreneurs, Innovations, Business Cycles, and the Evolution of Capitalism (New York: Transaction Publishers, 1989).
90. Joseph Schumpeter, review of Keynes’s General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Journal of the American Statistical Association (December 1936), 791–95.
XI: EXPERIMENTS: WEBB AND ROBINSON IN THE 1930S
1. Walter Duranty, New York Times, July 20, 1931, 1.
2. Beatrice Webb to Arthur Salter, April 12, 1932, Norman and Jeanne MacKenzie, eds., The Letters of Sidney and Beatrice Webb (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1978).
3. Norman and Jean MacKenzie, eds., The Diary of Beatrice Webb, vol. 4, 1924–1943: The Wheel of Life (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985), September 23, 1931, and October 10, 1931.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid., 272.
6. Ibid., May 14, 1932.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid., September 2, 1931.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Walter Duranty, New York Times, November 13, 1932, 1.
12. MacKenzie, Diary of Beatrice Webb, vol. 4, 299–301, 315, 328 (March 29, 1933; March 30, 1933; October 21, 1933; February 22, 1934).
13. Beatrice and Sidney Webb, Soviet Communism: A New Civilization (London: Longmans, Green and Co., 1935), 265.
14. Bertrand Russell, Autobiography (London: George Allen and Unwin, 1967), 74–75.
15. Robert Conquest, Reflections on a Ravaged Century (New York: W. W. Norton and Co., 2001), 148.
16. John Maynard Keynes, Collected Writings, vol. 23, Activities 1940–1943 (London: Macmillan, 1979), 5.
17. Malcolm Muggeridge, Chronicles of Wasted Time, vol. 1, The Green Stick (New York: William Morrow, 1973), 207.
18. MacKenzie, Diary of Beatrice Webb, vol. 4, 371 (June 19, 1936).
19. John Maynard Keynes to Kin
gsley Martin, 1937, in The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 28, Social, Political and Literary Writings (London: Macmillan, 1928), 72.
20. John Maynard Keynes, quoted in Muggeridge, Chronicles, 469.
21. John Maynard Keynes, “Democracy and Efficiency,” New Statesman and Nation, January 28, 1939.
22. Ibid.
23. Rita McWilliams Tullberg, “Alfred Marshall and Evangelicalism,” in Claudio Sardoni, Peter Kriesler, Geoffrey Colin Harcourt, eds., Keynes, Post-Keynesianism and Political Economy (London: Psychology Press, 1999), 82.
24. Austin Robinson to Joan Robinson, Robinson Papers, Kings College Archive.
25. Major General Sir Edward Speers, “Forward,” in Sir Frederick Maurice and Nancy Maurice, The Maurice Case (London: Archon Books, 1972), 95–96.
26. Quoted in Marjorie Shepherd Turner, Joan Robinson and the Americans (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1989), 13.
27. Margaret Gardiner, A Scatter of Memories (London: Free Association Books, 1988), 65.
28. Interview with Geoffrey Harcourt, Jesus College, University of Cambridge, 2000.
29. Joan Robinson to Richard Kahn, n.d., November 1930.
30. Joan Robinson to Stevie Smith
31. Ibid.
32. Austin Robinson to Joan Robinson, n.d., April 1926.
33. Diary of Beatrice Webb.
34. Dorothy Garratt to Joan Robinson, January 26, 1932.
35. Joan Robinson to Richard Kahn, March 1931.
36. Ibid.
37. Nahid Aslanbeigui and Guy Oakes, The Provocative Joan Robinson: The Making of a Cambridge Economist (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 2009).
38. James Meade, quoted in George R. Feiwell, Joan Robinson and Modern Economic Theory (New York: New York University Press, 1989), 917.
39. Ibid., 916.
40. Aslanbeigui and Oakes, The Provocative Joan Robinson.
41. Joan Robinson to Austin Robinson, October 11, 1932.
42. Joan Robinson to Richard Kahn, Michaelmas term, 1932; Joan Robinson to Austin Robinson, October 11, 1932; Richard Kahn to Joan Robinson.
43. Joan Robinson to Richard Kahn, March 2, 1933.
44. Joan Robinson, introduction to The Theory of Employment (London: Macmillan, 1969), xi.
45. Richard Kahn to Joan Robinson, March 1933.