Solomon's Code

by Olaf Groth

  The basic security of digital systems themselves also poses major economic and societal challenges. For firms seeking competitive advantage from digital AI tools, securing their financial, intellectual and operational assets is crucial. Cybersecurity has already risen to the top of business risks, necessitating significant investment in systems to prevent cyberattacks by competitors, individuals, or governments. Consider the energy industry. For communities trying to introduce renewable energy sources into the grid, digital control systems are essential but vulnerable to disruption by cyber hacks. Indeed, as is emphasized in the foreword by Admiral James G. Stavridis, such industrial or sectoral vulnerabilities can quickly become potential strategic vulnerabilities, as Estonia has discovered. Cybersecurity at the level of firms and institutions suddenly blends into concerns about cyber conflict, both between nations and as tools of attack for non-state actors.

  The public policy challenges facing governments are diverse, difficult, and often conflicting. Solomon’s Code gives us a good picture of the different ways several countries are proceeding. The first challenge is how to capture the possibilities that AI tools represent. However, this only opens the policy debate. Does policy for an AI adapted society call for a broad investment in the development of the tools themselves, as China is quite evidently doing, and which Israel pursues as part of its basic defense strategy? Does it call for policies to support diffusion and adoption throughout the economy, as arguably the Germans are doing with their program of Industrie 4.0? Does it call for investment in and the redesign of education and training? Or should governments simply stand back and encourage AI-driven disruption and dislocation, following an Uber like mantra of “don’t ask permission, ask forgiveness,” and deal with the mess after the fact?

  To adapt to changing technological opportunities and challenges, existing institutions, from schools to justice systems to defense systems, will have to evolve. Apart from the difficulty of change within existing institutions, the appropriate objective end points are far from evident. Education is a case in point. Is it important for students to learn to code? Or is it more important, or at least equally important, to develop students’ human skills—like empathy and creativity—alongside their ability to use and apply digital tools as they evolve. Do we need deep reform in secondary schools, or, assuming students are taught to read, write, reason, and code, will a series of nano-qualifications come to substitute for parts of higher education as currently organized? If the latter proves to be the case, are public systems or for-profit institutions the appropriate providers of the necessary skills? Redesigning an education system to meet the needs of a new technological era is much harder than simply expanding an existing system to involve more students and longer years of schooling.

  A second set of challenges is protecting against the vulnerabilities and possible abuses in a digital system with powerful AI tools. Here, the question of what is private cyber-security and what is public responsibility in cyber conflict/war is critical. Who is responsible for the integrity of voting systems, of news, of financial systems, and energy systems? Societies like Finland do not separate these matters as sharply as the United States currently does.

  A third set of challenges is the governance of the digital/AI system itself. Here, the array of challenges is as broad as it is daunting. Our basic rules about market competition, competition policy in Europe, and antitrust policy in the US, for example, are awkwardly adapted to a world of dominant platform players with global capacities to shape how we see the world and control vast amounts of information and data. How is market power measured when the products and services of dominant firms are “freely” offered to consumers in exchange for valuable information about them? How do we enforce anti-discrimination policies if biased judgments are hidden inside of non-transparent AI engines? What international rules are needed to protect privacy and to counter biases, and in what institutions should such rules be made?

  A final set of challenges—and in our view, both an ethical imperative and a practical necessity—is providing social protections and capacities for individuals and communities to adapt and adjust to the dramatic changes and dislocations caused by AI-driven technological change. Providing transitional help to those whose lives are disrupted by technological change will not be enough to ensure social, economic, and political stability. Creating opportunities for renewal and new livelihoods—generating the narratives of the future for those who are displaced—will be essential.

  Solomon’s Code contains a strong and clear message. AI tools and the systems and platforms they enable are advancing more quickly than anticipated, powered by breakthroughs in computing power, semiconductors, and data storage. These advances are challenging individuals, businesses and nations to respond rapidly. Those that effectively adopt and adapt will find advantage. Those that either do not adopt, or do not adapt, are likely to be left behind. For nations, failure to develop policies to maintain equitable outcomes will be as disruptive as failure to adopt. Solomon’s Code’s rich mix of analysis and examples across a broad array of questions and issues that are raised by the deployment of AI-powered intelligent tools and systems provides an excellent starting point for confronting the choices and debates that lie ahead.

  *James Manyika, et al. Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages, McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017.

  †Ljubica Nedelkoska and Glenda Quintini, “Automation, skills use and training,” OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 202, (OECD Publishing, Paris: 2018).

  ‡Towards a Reskilling Revolution: A Future of Jobs for All, World Economic Forum, January 2018.

  §Eight Futures of Work: Scenarios and their Implications, World Economic Forum, January 2018.

  ¶Martin Kenney and John Zysman, “The Rise of the Platform Economy,” Issues in Science and Technology, 32 (3): 61-69, 2016.

  Acknowledgments

  The cover of this book features two authors, but the list of people who made this endeavor possible runs far, far longer. No one sacrificed more than our wives, Dr. Ann Reidy and Prof. Elisabeth Krimmer, who patiently allowed us the time and support—sometimes even during family vacations—to research and complete this book. None of this would have been possible without their generosity and love, and we owe both our deepest gratitude for this and so much more.

  As newcomers to mass-market book publishing, we had no choice but to rely on a deep bench of incredible talent. This project probably would have died an early death had it not been for the vision of Esmond Harmsworth, our agent at Aevitas Creative, who saw how the kernel of our concept could stand out from the existing crowd of AI-related material. Jessica Case, our editor at Pegasus Books, recognized the same potential, shepherding us through the development of the manuscript and helping sharpen it into the version you see today. Her team at Pegasus, including copy editor Meaghan O’Brien and proofreader Mary Hern, saved us from more than our fair share of embarrassing mistakes. If any errors remain, the blame begins and ends with us.

  Long before these brilliant professionals worked their magic on our proposal and manuscript, a string of friends and consultants helped us refine our ideas and navigate our way into the publishing channel. Our friends Chris and Alexandra Ballard, successful serial authors, gave us an early glimpse of just how much would be required of authors who set out to write a mass-market book on such a technical and rapidly evolving topic. And, perhaps equally important, they introduced us to Dan Zehr, a writer (and now editor in chief at Cambrian.ai) who helped transform our style from one appropriate for professionals to prose accessible to a wider audience. Dan proved to be an invaluable collaborator, responsive to our ideas and adaptive to our turns and pivots, and gentle and patient at that. Over time, our collaboration arrangement morphed into a tight trio of friends who, during many writing retreats, not only got a lot done in 18 months but had a lot of fun at that.

  Many others helped guide us into and through the
publishing process, and we wanted to thank a key few here: best-selling author Michael Lewis offered a load of little insights that helped focus our direction and our writing process; Marilyn Haft’s legal expertise allowed us to focus on reporting and writing rather than contracts; Jeff Leeson helped us understand the market for proposals and how to make our pitch stand out; and Dr. John Beck (Phoenix), Dr. Bhaskar Chakravorti (Boston), author Brian Christian (Berkeley), Prof. Mark Esposito (Lausanne), Rehan Khan (Dubai), Joanne Lawrence (Boston), and Jon Teckman (London) provided friendly advice and examples of their own creative processes from a diverse set of global perspectives.

  The list of contributors who shared their remarkable knowledge with us is too long to mention in this space. You will see their names throughout the book; please consider each mention of each person a “thank you” from us. We do want to extend a special thanks, however, to a few contributors who don’t appear in the book but provided further thoughtful commentary on AI in discussion roundtables and personal meetings that coincided with the research for the book: German Federal President Frank Walter Steinmeier; State Minister Dorothee Bär at the German Chancellor’s Office; Cedric O, the Counselor for Public Participation and the Digital Economy, and Thierry Coulhon, the Counselor for Science and Innovation at the Presidency of the Republic/Prime Minister of France at Elysee Palace; Dr. Jean- Philippe Bourgoin, Senior Adviser for Research at the French Ministry for Education, Research and Innovation; State Secretary Walter Lindner, Ambassador Peter Wittig, and Consul General Hans-Ulrich Südbeck at the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and their ministry colleagues Ambassador Wolfgang Dold, Maria Gosse, Katrin aus dem Siepen, and Vito Cecere; as well as Gisela Philipsenburg and Katharina Erbe at the Innovation Policy Issues division at the German Ministry for Education & Science, Michael Schönstein, Deputy Head of Division at the German Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, and Max Neufeind, Adviser to the German Minister of Finance and Vice Chancellor.

  A host of multipliers helped us tap into new networks and gather perspectives in places we might never have experienced otherwise. We mention some of them throughout the book, but several deserve a special thanks here. Without the dedication of Hsiao-Wuen Hon, Jane Ma, and the team at Microsoft Research Asia, we could not have connected with the Chinese AI ecosystem to the extent required of a book like this one. Wen Gao, Yizhou Wang, and Mrs. Cai at Peking University helped build on our initial connections there, and James Chou, the CEO of the Microsoft Accelerate Shanghai, provided invaluable guidance as we researched the technological landscape there. Horst Teltschik, the former national security adviser to German chancellor Helmut Kohl, president of Boeing Germany, and board member at BMW, Thomas Neubert at Intel, Angela Chan at Channel 4, UK, Gerard Sheehan and Dorothy Orszulak at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and David Reidy at the University of Tennessee also helped connect us with key insights, resources, and people who helped provide a most holistic picture of AI’s influence on individuals and societies worldwide.

  We set out to craft a book that would balance technical sophistication and appealing narrative, and much of the credit for any such success we achieved should go to our friends and colleagues who agreed to critically review various sections of the book. They include: Padideh Ala’I, Alexandra Ballard, Chris Ballard, John Beck, Thomas Bjelkeman-Pettersson, Amy Celico, Patrick Cottrell, Sarah Courteau, John Fargis, Kaolin Fire, Pascale Fung, Prof. Ken Goldberg, Owen Good, Rehan Khan, Terry Kramer, Joanne Lawrence, Bertrand Moulet, Moira Muldoon, Erik Peterson, Dr. Ann Reidy, Thomas Sanderson, Crispin Sartwell, Peter Stone, and Elizabeth Zaborowska.

  Still others took time to peruse the entire manuscript and provide feedback and reviews. We can’t thank them enough for their time and generosity: Beth Comstock, Brad Davis, Bill Draper, Prof. Mark Esposito, Dr. Evelyn Farkas, Ken Goldberg, Timothy Koogle, Erik Peterson, Arati Prabhakar, Lord David Puttnam, Peter Schwartz, James Stavridis, Shashi Tharoor, Prof. Laura D’Andrea Tyson, Jim Whitehurst, and Prof. John Zysman.

  Importantly, we could not have built our network and crafted our international perspectives without the generous help of former students at Hult International Business School the Fletcher School at Tufts University and the Computer Science department at the University of California Berkeley. In particular, Aleksandra Kozielska, Mike Kuznetsov, and Bruna Silva delivered invaluable contributions in the form of global insights and marketing expertise. Massiel Acuna, Juliane Frömmter, and Vincenzo Ottiero helped open doors around the world, finding novel AI applications and helping shape our understanding about both major and overlooked markets. And a global network of students at Hult helped widen our field of view: Kailash Bafna, Line Boisen Petersen, Adrian Cevallos, Maria Dolgusheva, Tracy Katrina Ebanks, Laia Esteban, Eleonora Ferrero, Rodrigo Goulart, Robert Grüner, Francisco Guerra, Jasmin Jessenk, Joseph Kong, Jonathan Kurniawan, Bridget Lekota, Arjun Manohar, Maximilien Meilleur, Olga Matican, Hugo Anas Mekaoui, Anna Molinero, Alexander Neukam, Babatunde Olaniran, Olga (Tansil) Palma, Anna Podolskaya, Aaron Salamon, Suhail Shersad, Jayvijay Singh, Sukhdeep Singh, Tobias Straube, Chang-Hung Tsai, George Wang, Tatum Wheeler, and Esau White.

  These students represent an emerging generation of critically reflective and responsibility-minded business and societal leaders. As we head into a new era marked by deeper human-machine collaboration, their passion, energy, and thoughtfulness constantly reinvigorate our hope for the future.

  —Olaf Groth and Mark Nitzberg

  SOLOMON’S CODE

  Pegasus Books Ltd.

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  New York, NY 10018

  Copyright © 2018 Olaf Groth and Mark Nitzberg

  First Pegasus Books edition November 2018

  Interior design by Maria Fernandez

  All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher, except by reviewers who may quote brief excerpts in connection with a review in a newspaper, magazine, or electronic publication; nor may any part of this book be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or other, without written permission from the publisher.

  Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available.

  ISBN: 978-1-68177-870-9

  ISBN: 978-1-68177-935-5 (ebk.)

  Distributed by W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.

  www.pegasusbooks.us