Analog SFF, November 2008

by Dell Magazine Authors

  One way to generate these files is with Computer-Aided Design (CAD) programs. Like ordinary drawing programs, which permit one to draw two-dimensional graphics, CAD programs let one draw three-dimensional objects. They are often part of CAD-CAM (CAM stands for Computer-Aided Manufacturing) packages. CAM can split a CAD drawing into layers and tell a 3D printer what to print.

  CAD-CAM software can be expensive. AutoCAD (usa.autodesk.com) is $3,995. Fortunately, there are cheaper options, including shareware and freeware, such as Blender (www.blender.org). For the home user, these may be sufficient. Some 3D printers, such as the Desktop Factory, come with their own software.

  But what if you want to duplicate an actual object, such as a broken chess piece or an appliance knob? Well, there are such things as 3D scanners. High-end ones are used in the film and videogame industries, and they aren't cheap. The Cyberware Whole Body X 3D scanner goes for $200,000 (for color, add another $40,000). Z-corp markets a 3D scanner, the Zscanner 800, to go with its 3D printers; price: $49,900. Nextengine (www.nextengine.com) has one for $2,495; like others, it generates 3D files compatible with 3D printers.

  If those prices seem a bit steep, you can find instructions on how to build your own. The DAVID scanner (www.david-laserscanner.com) was developed by Dr. Simon Winkelbach and Sven Molkenstruck of the Institute for Robotics and Process Control at the Technical University of Braunschweig, Germany. The necessary software is free. To set it up, you need a Windows PC, a line laser, a web camera, and a couple of plain boards. For advanced projects, you need more advanced software, which costs less than $200.

  These scanners are limited to scanning the outside of an object. If you want to scan a hollow object so you can reproduce internal details you need something else, such as a medical ultrasound scanner. In 2007, Siemens Medical Solutions introduced the pocket-sized Acuson P10 (www. acuson.com) for capturing rapid images of the heart and arteries and assessing trauma (invaluable in emergency situations) for $10,000. That's steep for a home buyer, but at least some of the price is because of the need to design for the medical setting. An ultrasound scanner for non-medical uses may be developable for a much lower price.

  * * * *

  The Wave of the Future?

  Many people are already enchanted by the prospect of being able to have their own 3D printer, 3D scanner, and CAD-CAM software. So far, the whole kit is pretty expensive. The price has to come down before large numbers of people buy into the technology. Another obstacle is that present affordable printers such as RepRap and Fab@Home and scanners such as DAVID require a degree of comfort with do-it-yourself geekery that most people just don't have. But technology evolves. Prices drop. Gadgets become easier to use. And these things can happen rapidly. The PC went from something that had to be programmed by the user before it could do anything useful to an economic revolution in just two decades. I expect 3D printing to go at least that far in less time.

  It's worth noting that the Fab@Home and Desktop Factory fabbers aren't really that expensive. If we look back at the 1970s, at the threshold of the PC revolution, home computer prices look cheaper, but that doesn't allow for inflation. In 1972, the HP9830, the “first desktop all-in-one,” sold for $5,975. In 2008 dollars, that's $30,000, in the same range as the cheaper industrial-grade 3D printers. In 1975, the Altair sold (assembled) for $621, which works out to about $2,400. In 1977, the Apple II sold for $1,295, or $4,400 in 2008 dollars. They compare very well to Fab@Home's $3,600 (assembled) and Desktop Factory's $5,000.

  And if 3D printers follow a price history anything like the PC's, they will be become much cheaper and enormously more capable over the next few years.

  So whose homes will they get into first? Geeks are of course going to be among the first to acquire the new toys. It's worth noting that already rapid prototyping and 3D printing are finding a place in third-world countries where being able to make parts and even salable products is important to local economies. But what industry first showed people how to make money out of e-commerce? We may hate to admit it, but yes, it was porn. And there is considerable potential in this area for 3D printing too.10

  So now I have you thinking of body parts. Shame on you! But seriously, if 3D printers and scanners become normal, I can easily imagine people scanning their own bodies just to have a file on hand. Later, if they lose a limb or other body part to disease, accident, or war, they would be able to print a shell for their prosthesis that would precisely match the original. In time, they might even be able to print the prosthesis.

  What else? Only time will tell. When the PC was new, no one predicted eHarmony.com or social networking sites or phishing or many other things. The imagination fails when faced with new technologies of immense potential. The only thing we can say with confidence is that 3D printers will find a great many uses, some of which would astonish us if we knew of them.

  But first we do have the trainwreck stage to get through. As 3D printers come into widespread use, businesses will be affected. Some manufacturers will close up shop for lack of sales, and jobs will be lost. Following the example of the RIAA and its attack on music file-sharers, some will sue anyone they suspect of printing or sharing the CAD/CAM files made by scanning copyrighted, patented, or trademarked items. As people buy fewer items, choosing instead to make them at home with their 3D printers, sales tax revenue will drop. And of course there will be new varieties of fraud ("authentic” antiques, knock-offs, “genuine” evidence to back up creationist delusions) and even terrorism. There may come a day when a 3D printer can fit in a briefcase and be used to print a weapon after going through airport security.

  But we'll adjust. Some businesses will adapt by changing their business model; they will sell raw materials for the printers to use, or CAD/CAM files for people to print products from. Unemployed people will learn new skills, such as how to use CAD/CAM software to design and sell printable files. States and municipalities dependent on sales taxes to maintain vital infrastructure and run schools will look for new ways to raise money; expect income taxes to go up.

  But crime? It will always be with us.

  * * * *

  About the Author:

  Thomas A. Easton holds a doctorate in theoretical biology from the University of Chicago and teaches at Thomas College in Waterville, Maine. His work on scientific and futuristic issues has appeared widely. His latest nonfiction books are Taking Sides: Clashing Views in Science, Technology, and Society (McGraw-Hill, 8th ed., 2008), Taking Sides: Clashing Views on Environmental Issues (McGraw-Hill, 13th ed., 2009), Classic Editions Sources: Environmental Studies (McGraw-Hill, 3rd ed., 2009), and Off the Main Sequence: Science Fiction and the Non-Mass Market (1988-2004) (Borgo Press, 2006). His latest novels are Firefight (Betancourt, 2003) and The Great Flying Saucer Conspiracy (Wildside, 2002). He has been the Analog book columnist for the last thirty years.

  Copyright (c) 2008 Thomas A. Easton

  * * * *

  [Footnote 1: Arlan Andrews covered early forms of the technology in “Manufacturing Magic,” Analog (September 1992). It's come a long way since then.]

  [Footnote 2: Chris Morrison, “3-D PrintingfortheRest ofUs,” Business 2.0 (September 2007).]

  [Footnote 3: If you want to see the details of the candyfab, including instructions on how to make your own, visit the Evil Mad Scientist web site at www.evilmadscientist .com/article.php/candyfab or the spin-off site www.candyfab.org, where you can learn how to make unique cake decorations, among other things.]

  [Footnote 4: The dentist uses somthing similar for polymer fillings.]

  [Footnote 5: Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) uses molten or semi-molten plastic.]

  [Footnote 6: The layers made by both the machines discussed here are less than a hundredth of an inch thick.

  [Footnote 7: They prefer “Solid Freeform Fabrication” to “3D printing."]

  [Footnote 8: See Logan Ward, “Breakthrough Awards: Thinking Big,"PopularMechanics (November 2007).]

  [Footnote 9: See Mike H
aney, “E-Z Make Oven,” PopularScience (September 2007); it was listed as one of the “Best of What's New 2007” online at www.popsci.com/ posci/flat/bown/2007/hometech/item79.html.]

  [Footnote 10: What would people do in this line with plastic? The question is no challenge at all! But what could a couple do with frosting?]

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  Reader's Department: IN TIMES TO COME

  The first thing you'll notice about our December issue is a new look, but don't worry: what's inside is the same magazine you look forward to each month. Like everyone else these days, we've had to look at ways to deal with the rapidly rising costs of production and distribution. Our choices boiled down to two: a new format with fewer but bigger pages, allowing us to offer very close to the same amount of content while producing it more economically; or a substantial increase in subscription and single-issue prices. Understanding that you, too, are probably having to economize, we chose the new format. We'll make every effort to keep the “new” Analog as you like it, and as always welcome your suggestions on how to do it even better.

  Our first offering in the new package features the usual diverse package of stories, including novelettes by David Bartell and Joe Schembrie (at least one of which could be construed as appropriate to the season) and Part 2 of Robert J. Sawyer's new novel Wake. Richard A. Lovett's fact article, “Green Nanotechnology,” is exactly what the title suggests: a look at some of the ways the rapidly expanding field of nanotechnology can be applied, quite soon, to solving pressing environmental problems. Overall, we think it's an

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  Novelette: GREENWICH NASTY TIME by Carl Frederick

  * * * *

  Illustration by Mark Evans

  * * * *

  As somebody once said, “If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research."

  * * * *

  Leaning over the railing of the Red Osprey with Vicki at his side, Paul could make out not much more than the roiling of the sea. Midday, yet the mist lay heavy. The ferry had barely passed from the Southampton Water into the Solent, but still the English mainland appeared only as shadows. Their destination, the Isle of Wight just a few miles away, could not be seen at all.

  "Timeless,” said Vicki softly.

  Paul chuckled. “If it's this bad at Shanklin, the navigation event will be a real challenge. We'll hardly be able to see our own bikes, much less the markers.” He checked his watch—5:30 PM—and switched it to twenty-four-hour time in preparation for the event. “Map, compass, and odometer in the dark. Now that would be fun."

  His cell phone rang, startling them both. Paul pulled the phone from his jeans pocket. “My thesis advisor,” he said, gazing at the outside display. He flipped open the phone and, so Vicki wouldn't feel left out, switched on the speaker.

  "Hi, Dr. Richardson."

  "Paul. I think I have something of an idea."

  Paul rolled his eyes. His advisor seemed to start every conversation the same way—almost as if “I think I have something of an idea” meant hello. “About the project?” said Paul to fill the void.

  "We know the EPR waves are a surface phenomenon—solid surface.” Richardson spoke with both his usual enthusiasm and his characteristic Boston accent. “They won't propagate through liquids. I'm sure the waves would be amplified if surrounded by water.” Paul heard the sound of a hand slapping a desk. “If I were back at Harvard, I'd just bundle the experiment into my sailboat and run it from the middle of the Charles. The wave amplification is what we've overlooked."

  "We wouldn't want it too amplified,” said Paul. “If you're right about the theory, it could be dangerous."

  "Of course I'm right. You do have the capsule with you, yes?"

  "What?” said Paul, momentarily disoriented by the seeming non sequitur. “Yes. I take it everywhere with me."

  "Good. By the way, where exactly are you?"

  Paul smiled at Vicki. “Vicki and I are on our way to the Wight Wabbit Mountain Bike Festival—on the Isle of Wight."

  "Vicki?"

  "She's not a physics student."

  "Oh,” said Richardson. “Dating civilians, are you?” he added with a smile in his voice.

  "And a native,” said Paul lightly. “She was born in Southampton. She studies Brit Lit."

  "Well, enjoy yourselves—but keep the capsule close. Might need it soon. Maybe even tonight.” Paul heard a click as Richardson broke the connection.

  Paul blew out a breath and returned the phone to his pocket.

  "Is he always so abrupt?” said Vicki.

  Paul nodded. “Always."

  "And civilian?"

  Paul laughed. “Non-physicist.” An outline in the mist caught his attention. “Hey! Land ho!"

  "Cowes, I think—our destination.” Vicki paused. “By the way, what was all that about a capsule?"

  "I haven't told you anything about my work, have I?"

  Vicki smiled. “Are you allowed to tell civilians?"

  "I am, but ... but only if they're unlikely to understand it.” He nodded over to a stairwell. “Come on. Let's go down to the entrance level. I'll explain it as we go.” He hefted his pack to his shoulders. “Have you heard of the multiworld theory of quantum mechanics?"

  "You mean that the Universe splits into multiple universes sometimes?” Vicki hoisted her knapsack as well.

  "Yeah. Whenever there's a quantum event.” Paul was impressed. “You may not be the civilian I thought you were. Well,” he went on, “my advisor is the creator of the micromultiworld theory."

  "That theory,” said Vicki, “I haven't heard of."

  "Not many have.” Paul led the way to the stairs. “Richardson says it's too much to ask that the entire vast Universe split at every quantum event. He believes that only the region directly surrounding the event splits."

  "Which means?"

  "He believes that a similar region from a parallel universe is switched in—a corresponding region of space, but not necessarily the same time. He believes the vacuum fluctuations are really just these little regions being swapped in and out."

  "I don't know what vacuum fluctuations are,” said Vicki. “But you keep saying ‘he believes it.’ Do you?"

  "Me?” Paul bit his lip, pausing on the stairs before answering. “I don't know—but the work should get me a Ph.D.—which is why I followed him when he came here on sabbatical."

  A few minutes later, the Red Osprey slid into its berth. Paul and Vicki collected their bicycles and wheeled them into the Cowes terminal.

  "Your advisor mentioned an experiment,” said Vicki as they went.

  "The idea is to force a measurable region to swap in from another universe."

  "But you said it was dangerous."

  "Well, it's possible that we could really mess up space and time."

  Vicki stopped, cold. “You're not serious?"

  Paul laughed. “No, I'm not. Even if the experiment is wildly successful, a small region around Richardson would swap with a region from a different time—but only for an instant."

  "Well, that sounds sort of dangerous."

  "But unlikely,” said Paul. “Very, very unlikely."

  Vicki gave him a long look. “You're not just saying this to make me not worry, are you?” She glanced at his pack. “This capsule you always have with you. What is it? And is that dangerous?"

  "It's perfectly safe. It's an EPR experiment, but with a very large number of particles. I have one capsule and Dr. Richardson has the other.” Paul gesticulated with the hand not guiding his bike. “Each capsule is in a single EPR superposition. If I were to measure the capsule's quantum state, Richardson's capsule would collapse to a single eigenstate—and that should trigger a region swap. A short time later, the swap would reverse. And if it didn't, then when my capsule is moved to Richardson's location—his nexus, as we call it—the swap would be forced to reverse.” He glanced at her and saw a puzzled expression. “I'd better explain it more slowly."


  "No, don't,” she said. “Don't explain. I think I'll go back to being a civilian."

  * * * *

  Outside the terminal, they mounted their mountain bikes for the short ride to Newport where they'd buy provisions for the weekend. Paul noted that now the air was clear. No problem with navigation here. He glanced out across the Solent, but the English mainland was still invisible in the sea mist.

  Just outside a grocer's shop in Newport, they dismounted. Just then, Paul's phone rang. “It's Richardson,” said Paul, looking at the Caller ID. “Why don't you go in and get what we need? I'll stay out here and watch the bikes—and deal with Richardson.” He flipped open the phone and again for Vicki's sake activated the speaker.

  "I think I've had something of an idea,” came Richardson's voice from the phone's speaker. Vicki cast an amused look to Paul and then walked toward the store. Paul switched off the speaker.

  "Are you there?” said Richardson.

  "Sorry. Yes. Go ahead."

  "I am speaking to you from,” said Richardson in a professorial voice, “from a rubber raft in the middle of the Jubilee Sports Centre swimming pool. I have the full EPR experiment with me."

  "To try your surrounded-by-water theory?"

  "Precisely!"

  For the next five minutes or so, Richardson described the experiment at hand and then guided Paul in the positioning of his capsule.

  With the capsule on the ground and him on his knees, Paul made tiny changes in the capsule's orientation.

  Finally, Richardson said, “Perfect. Right on center."

  Paul, his knees sore from kneeling, stood. “Okay.” He glanced at his phone's call timer and worried about running out of free minutes. “What now?” he said, trying to keep impatience out of his voice.

  "Now, just stand by. We throw this little switch and..."

  Paul heard a whirring sound over the phone.

  "Now, this is interesting,” said Richardson. “It looks almost as if the—"

  Paul waited a few seconds for more. “Hello?” he said into the silent phone. “Dr. Richardson. Can you hear me?” He noticed that the phone display showed that the call had been lost. He pulled up the received call log and dialed. But the call didn't go through. Again, he tried, but with the same result. Paul keyed the physics department number, just to see if his phone was working. He couldn't connect to the physics office, either. He stood there with the phone in his hand for a minute or so, then tried Richardson again. No answer. He blew out a breath, snapped his phone closed, chained both bikes together, and, carrying both packs, walked slowly into the grocery.