Cyber Warfare

by Bobby Akart

  The Business Blackout report states evidence from historical outages, and indicative modeling suggests that power interruptions already cost the US economy roughly one hundred billion dollars a year. Under normal conditions, over ninety-five percent of outage costs are borne by the commercial and industrial sectors due to the high dependence on electricity as an input factor of production.

  As explained in the report, it is important to identify the risks related to a possible cyber attack and adopt all the necessary measures to mitigate them. The protection of critical infrastructure like a power grid should be an essential part of the cyber strategy of any government.

  Threat intelligence and information sharing are essential to limit the number of cyber attacks. As a result of increased awareness and recent cyber events, President Obama issued an Executive Order Promoting Private Sector Cybersecurity Information Sharing, confirming the administration’s cyber strategy. Toward that end, in 2014 the U.S. Government issued the Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Security.

  The Framework was published in response to Executive Order 13636, which states that “it is the Policy of the United States to enhance the security and resilience of the Nation’s critical infrastructure and to maintain a cyber environment that encourages efficiency, innovation, and economic prosperity while promoting safety, security, business confidentiality, privacy, and civil liberties.”

  The Framework was designed to improve security for IT and SCADA networks deployed in sensitive industries such as energy, water, and financial services. The Framework stresses the information sharing on principal threats and outlines and defines the best practices that allow mitigation of the attacks. Both private and public sector organizations are encouraged to report any suspect activity for prevention and a prompt response to the incidents. The implementation of the Framework is in its infancy. Thus there has been little written about its success.

  Chapter Seventeen

  Based upon what we know, could hackers bring down the U.S. Power Grid?

  It has been clearly established that various threat actors around the world have made it their goal to inflict maximum pain on the United States and one method that can be utilized is a grid down scenario, whether by electromagnetic pulse weapon, or cyber attack. The biggest fear of many political leaders and cyber security analysts, the worst case scenario, is often described in terms of a cyber attack on our critical infrastructure. These cyber war predictions almost always envision an attack on the U.S. power grid that would cause a widespread blackout.

  The nation states who currently have the greatest capability to use cyber attacks to inflict broad, systemic damage on their adversaries are the well-resourced nation states who are most likely to calibrate their targeting carefully. For example, if China or the United States were to try to immobilize the entire economy of the other, they would open a serious risk of a cyber retaliation aimed at inflicting the same kind of damage, or worse. This is similar to the mutually assured destruction doctrine that helped restrain the use of nuclear weapons. But yet the risk remains because, in the cyber realm, the bad actors may have nothing to lose. Think North Korea.

  In 2014 testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, NSA Director Admiral Michael Rogers went into some detail on those risks:

  Admiral Rogers was questioned about one such hypothetical. “If it was determined that malware was on those critical infrastructure systems, can you be a little more definitive about what does that mean? If I’m on that system, and I want to do some harm, what does that do? Do the lights go out? Do we stop pumping water? What does that mean? And the fact that it was there does that mean they already have the capability to ‘flip the switch’ if they wanted to?”

  Admiral Rogers responded: “Well let me address the last part first. There shouldn’t be any doubt in our minds that there are nation-states and groups out there that have the capability to do that. To enter our systems, to enter those industrial control systems, and to shut down, forestall our ability to operate, our basic infrastructure. Whether it’s generating power across this nation, or whether it’s moving water and fuel, once you’re into the system and you’re able to do manipulate that. It enables you to do things like, if I want to tell power turbines to go offline and stop generating power, you can do that. If I wanted to segment the transmission system so that you couldn’t distribute the power that was coming out of the power stations, this would enable you to do that. It allows you to shut down very segmented, very tailored parts of our infrastructure.”

  A number of media outlets and cyber security professionals interpreted these comments as a claim by the NSA that a country like China could take down our nation’s power grid. Is a widespread, national blackout caused by hackers a realistic possibility? The power grid is vulnerable to attack. Adm. Rogers’ testimony was extremely important as it provided a strong, authoritative voice to what is an urgent problem facing this country right now—America’s critical infrastructure is vulnerable to attack, it’s a complicated problem to fix, and an attack is imminent.

  PART SEVEN

  Preparing For Cyber Warfare

  Chapter Eighteen

  Cyber War Implications for Business

  Cybergeddon or World War C is not here yet, but it might be tomorrow. You never know when the day before—is the day before.

  Under the most likely scenarios, the effects of a cyber war on most businesses are more likely to be disruptive than apocalyptic for two main reasons. Cyber intrusions can immobilize your business operations for hours and maybe days. Modern critical infrastructures tend to have enough built-in stop-gap measures and protections to prevent a cataclysmic crash of the entire power grid simultaneously or for an extended period.

  The business of cyber terrorism is growing in many directions. There is a growing gray market for cyber weapons able to exact more powerful exploits—directed against utility and industrial control systems. These hacking tools are becoming more readily available to governments of smaller nations and even non-state groups, like ISIS, that would have less to lose in a cyber exchange than a major power. In addition, the number of potential targets of hacker activity is growing exponentially as technological advances allow interconnectivity of networks subject to being targeted.

  The accelerating globalization of many business entities will also leave them increasingly vulnerable to disruption from cyber war even if it does not involve their home government. The public sector relies on R&D and manufacturing that are often based in third-world countries. These important sources of innovation and revenue could be cut off, at least temporarily, by the deployment of cyber weapons. Cyber war operations could also disrupt supply chains and support services. Tensions between China and other nations in Southeast Asia could disrupt call center operations in India or the manufacture of specialty parts for global supply chains in the Philippines.

  A cyber war could disrupt business operations across much of the United States economy. Industries closely tied to military capabilities would quickly become the front lines of such a conflict. The defense industry, airlines, energy companies, pharmaceutical manufacturers and healthcare providers, commercial Internet service providers and telecommunications firms are just a few of the industries that serve military and other government operations. Then there are the utilities that supply power and water to government facilities.

  Business, nonprofit, and government leaders should anticipate significant indirect effects. Companies around the world could experience damage from malware or a massive DDoS attack that a hacker introduced into their business networks via customers, suppliers, perhaps even employees’ personal contacts and electronic devices that had been connected to other corporate networks. As the world becomes more interconnected, the threat of cyber intrusion grows.

  A cyber war—like any war—is an outcome no one wants. But, given the ready availability and growing power of cyber weapons, the plethora of potential military targets on IT networks, and the many poin
ts of friction between competing nation states, this is an outcome we could all soon face with little or no warning. Organizations of all kinds need to be able to protect their most valuable assets when a cyber war comes or their business will risk becoming collateral damage.

  There should be no doubt as to who handles an organization’s response to a possible cyberwar or other security challenges. Although cybersecurity programs are typically executed by a Chief Information Officer, the entire leadership team must be committed to cyber preparedness. Beyond enhancing resiliency, this type of preparation will build a mindset that is better able to recognize current and future security risks, navigate the threat landscape in pursuit of business opportunities, and allocate security resources more efficiently.

  Planning for a cyber war should include knowing how a potential adversary looks at an organization. The identity of enemies, the type of intrusion they might undertake, and the hacker tools they might use are all factors to consider. A thorough internal assessment will determine how an organization conducts business with an eye towards potential cyber vulnerabilities.

  Another key element is understanding whether an organization has a secure internal business network. Many times, corporate assets—and corresponding vulnerabilities—are part of a global network. Supply chains, service providers and strategic partners, employees, and customers are all dependent upon one another and an attack on any one of these interconnected entities could negatively impact the entire business.

  Every private sector business, regardless of size, should remain informed, aware, and secure. Most organizations will be best prepared for the contingency of cyber war by focusing on the following:

  Protect those assets that are most valuable to the organization, and desirable by the cyber intruders;

  Implement a cyber security plan that will not only protect a business in the event of cyber war but put it ahead of the pack in the global marketplace afterward; and

  Study the activities of policymakers and cyber security experts to keep up-to-date on threats.

  Chapter Nineteen

  It’s Time to Get Ready for the Coming Cyber War

  First, let's summarize the scope of the problem. We've known for years that America's infrastructure isn't as robust as it should be.

  During the Northeast blackout of 2003, for example, a large portion of the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, together with some of Canada was blacked out as a result of a minor software bug at a FirstEnergy electrical station in Ohio. This event, combined with out-of-date hardware across the nation’s power grid and lax security, could easily result in an opportunity for hackers to take down critical infrastructure across the country.

  The FBI recently caught three Russian operatives attempting to trigger a Flash Crash in the United States stock market like the one that occurred in 2010. During that event, massive computer networks—trading at millisecond speeds—over-corrected and dropped the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1,000 points in just minutes.

  Hackers don't have to attack Wall Street directly. One cyber attack, like the one that recently involved incorrect information posted on Twitter, can cause major panic in the financial markets. In 2013, the Syrian Electronic Army hacked the Associated Press Twitter account and tweeted that there had been an explosion at the White House and President Obama was injured. This caused panic trading that created a temporary loss of around $136.5 billion in the S&P.

  In 2014, Ransomware hackers knocked an unidentified radio station in Louisiana off the air. The radio station, which had a firewall in place, was running an older version of Windows XP on its computers. In this case, the hacker’s goal was extortion or ransom. But in the event of a terrorist activity, this could be a method to disrupt critical communications networks. Despite the hacker’s goal, it's still evidence that hackers are capable of just about anything.

  If cyber terrorists didn't attack electronically, they might cut Internet cables manually. This happened in San Francisco recently which resulted in an Internet outage after vandals broke into a secure vault and cut an important Internet backbone cable.

  In 2015, the Department of Defense accidentally released an 800-page document on the Aurora Project. It was a detailed analysis of how hackers could take down the U.S. power grid and water systems. It wasn't very comforting as it detailed potentially catastrophic loss of life.

  Recent cyber attacks reveal it isn't only the power grid that is vulnerable. The U.S. air traffic control system is getting a major upgrade, and it brings with it some problems that a hacker can exploit. This may have been the reason for the attack upon the United Airlines' computer system which grounded 4,900 flights and delayed travel across the country.

  At the same time, another computer glitch shut down the New York Stock Exchange for four hours and brought trading to a standstill. Clearly, hackers are busy trying to cause other problems.

  This book has been replete with the various ways hackers could launch a cyber attack that causes major disruption. However, there are two more unexpected cyber tools available to hackers that you might not have considered.

  Our enemies test our defenses every second of every day. As has been stated repeatedly in this book by experts across the spectrum; it’s not a matter of if a cyber attack will be successful in collapsing our power grid; it’s a matter of when.

  Chapter Twenty

  We Are All Preppers Now

  The threats we face are many. At FreedomPreppers.com, Americans are urged to prepare for a worst-case scenario. If nothing happens, you’ve lost nothing. For the United States, short of nuclear annihilation, the worst case scenario is an extended grid down scenario.

  The way you protect yourself isn't very high-tech. In fact, you're going to be better off going low-tech.

  Where do you begin in formulating a Preparedness Plan? An entire preparedness guide, hundreds of pages long, may still not adequately cover the elements of a comprehensive preparedness plan. The numerous disaster preparedness guides, blogs, and professional videos are all excellent resources. But where does one start?

  Essentially, it all boils down to:

  Beans, Band-Aids & Bullets

  Well, of course there is much more to developing a preparedness plan than the big three, but all preparedness experts know these are the basics. Many preppers are well organized and rely heavily upon checklists. We urge you to review Appendix B which provides a summary as well as a link to a free pdf download of an extensive preparedness checklist. Preppers constantly update their checklists to insure they didn’t overlook anything. You will as well.

  As you review the following, keep in mind certain basic principles when preparing your plan.

  The survival rule of threes: You can only live three minutes without air; three hours without shelter in extreme conditions; three days without water; and three weeks without food. This helps you prioritize your preps for a post collapse survival situation.

  The prepper rule of redundancy: Three is two, two is one, and one is none. When your prepper supplies run out, you can’t drive down to Wal-Mart and restock.

  Building your prepper supplies to an acceptable level for long term survival requires baby steps. Thus, survival planning starts with the perfect trinity of prepping—beans, band-aids and bullets. Clearly, an oversimplification of what a preparedness plan entails, but it is a pretty good reflection of what you better have covered. This is a well known expression within the prepper community as it outlines the essentials that you will need in the event of TEOTWAWKI—the end of the world as we know it.

  In summary, beans will include your prepper supplies, the items in your prepper pantry and water. Band-aids will refer to all things medical. Bullets represent the weapons and ammunition necessary to protect yourself, your family and your preps.

  Beans – Your Prepper Pantry

  What is in your prepper pantry? Right now, honest assessment. How many days could your family survive on what's in your house right now? Most American households
have less than seven days of food on hand.

  Building a prepper pantry is one of those lifelines that take both time and planning to make it fully functional. Ideally, you want to store shelf stable foods that your family normally consumes, as well as find foods that serve multiple purposes. Stocking your prepper pantry should involve a combination of ready to eat food and beverages to last your family many months plus long term food storage for a year or more.

  Overall, your prepper pantry should reflect an abundance of the foods that you eat on a regular basis. Utilize a first in, first out rotation. This is a mistake many new preppers make. They buy food they don't eat on a regular basis. Store foods that have a long shelf life, that don't require refrigeration after opening, and that are easy to cook off the grid.

  Our suggested preparedness plan includes non-perishable foods on our shelves to last us one year. Then we have canned vegetables, fruit, and meats created throughout the year. Finally, dried goods such as beans, rice, pasta, and oatmeal are stored utilizing Mylar Bags and desicant packs (this technique is discussed in depth on the Freedom Preppers website) which can last for up to twenty years.

  The following foods are all popular food staples that should be considered as “must haves” for your Prepper Pantry. The advantages to storing these items are they encompass all of the key consideration points listed above. Best of all, these items are very affordable and versatile, thus making them worthy of being on your storage shelves for extended emergencies. You'll find most of these items in your pantry already. Try to increase the quantity each week and place them into rotation. Use this list as a starting point on beginning or extending your Prepper Pantry. Always keep your family’s food preferences and dietary needs in mind when investing in your food supply. This list is very basic, but a good start. The checklist in Appendix B is helpful as well.