Bull!
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Gingrich, Newt, 87, 143
Ginnie Maes, 59
Giuliani, Rudy, 76–77, 351
Glassman, James, 20, 120
Glauber, Robert, 352
Global Crossing, 319–21, 348
global cycles, 396
Gloom, Boom and Doom Report (newsletter), 182, 355
GNP, 62
Goizueta, Robert, 145, 428n.42
gold, 45, 214, 354, 355, 357, 375, 376–77, 444n.35
as falling dollar hedge, 396
Goldman Sachs, xix, 84, 142, 179, 186, 279, 285
model portfolio, 298
profits and culture of, 81–82
See also Cohen, Abby Joseph; Einhorn, Steven
Goodyear, 340, 379
government bonds. See Treasuries Gramm, Phil, 131, 132–33
Grant, James, 6, 13–14, 53, 58, 61, 182, 185, 190, 207, 243, 252, 256, 272, 371, 375, 413n.18
alternative investments and, 396
bearishness of, 313, 315, 342, 395
on excess capacity, 258, 329
on interest rate cuts, 94, 95, 323, 417–18n.37
Grant, John, 43
Grantham, Jeremy, 209, 258, 315, 326, 363, 365, 366, 370–71, 372, 380
alternative investments and, 396
on Bush debt-based economy, 395
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, 6, 53, 61, 182, 256, 413n.18
Grasso, Richard, 352, 404–5n.33
Great 401(k) Hoax, The (Wolman and Colamosca), 103, 419n.5
Great Bull Market of 1982–99, 17–32, 48–60, 365
aftermath (2000–03), 333–52
aftermath (2003–04), 387–96
background for, 35–47
capital gains focus, 378
Cohen as “Queen of,” 8, 9, 84, 86–87, 239–40
as confidence game, 252
conventional wisdom of, 353–54
corporate culture and, 270–75
Greek Chorus on, 53–58, 248, 280–81, 287, 314–16, 325, 341–42
gurus of, 81–101, 240–48, 289–300, 341–42
information excess, 175–92
initial wariness on, 49–50
intermissions in, 365
international impact of, 19
investor confidence, 31–32, 77
junk bonds and, 52–53
“little guy vs. pro” myths of, 72
lottery aura, 17–21
March 2000’s significance, xx, 324–26
media fueling of, 21, 32, 153, 154–71
momentum investing, 202, 203–8, 211, 228
mutual funds, 15–16, 204–16
as paper market, 307
phase divisions, 48–49, 409n.1
phase I, 49–60, 61–62, 76, 77, 88
phase II, 73, 77, 85–101, 104–22, 145
phase III, 8–13, 121, 153–74, 209–10, 239–65, 269–330, 378
plebiscite analogy for, 20–21
precedent of 1962–66 for, 8
productivity and, 254–65
skeptics on, 12–13, 15, 19–20
timing of entry, 121, 334
timing of exit, 215, 229–30, 287, 334
true believers in, 167–71
turning points, 121, 282–87, 401n.20
value managers and, 213–16
Washington and, 123–49, 244–53, 254, 322–24
Great Depression (1930s), 30, 376
greed, 4, 15, 31, 32, 61, 75, 76, 87
Green, Timothy, 375
Green, William, 446n.22
Greenberg, Eric, 319
Greenberg, Herb, 159, 180, 181, 184, 190, 315
Greenspan, Alan, 32, 81, 83, 87–96, 128, 240, 244–48, 327–30
background and career, 88–92
constraints on, 252–53
crash of 1973–74 and, 390–91
critics of, 323–24
economic recovery strategy, 391–92, 395
on hedge fund regulation, 286
“irrational exuberance” phrase, 53, 247, 248–50, 254, 286
on New Economy, 254–55, 260, 261
political skills, 88, 89, 91, 94, 328
psychological power, 252, 263
repudiation of bubble concerns, 251–53, 263, 286
tax cut endorsement, 328, 329
See also interest rates
Green Tree Financial, 270
Greer, Robert, 374
Gross, Bill, 119, 255, 330, 371, 388, 396
Gross Domestic Product. See GDP
Grossman, Lawrence, 67, 413–14n.24
growth funds, 27–28, 36–37, 314
average annual turnover, 212
continued investments in (2000), 325
losses (2002), 333
pension plans and, 225
stock overlaps in, 302
growth stocks, 41, 168, 210, 212, 406n.18
brand names, 28, 209, 210, 301, 306
misrepresented earnings, 270
Vinik’s view of, 227
Grubman, Jack, 97, 183, 190, 320, 344, 348
Gulf War (1991), 85, 409n.1
Gurley, Bill, 100–101
Guttfreund, John, 136
Haines, Mark, 30, 155, 156–58, 160, 180
Hamilton, William Peter, 4
Harvard Business School, 37, 41
Harvard University, 245, 246, 255–56
Hassett, Kevin, 20
HCA (Hospital Corporation of America), 125
Headley, Matthew, 221
hedge funds, 57, 71, 166, 231, 279, 281, 283, 285–87
Helyar, John, 53, 76
Henry, William, 108
herd mentality, 17–18, 21, 24, 32, 210–12, 215, 226, 288–303, 430n.3
Herrlinger, David, 61
Herrmann, Hank, 308
Hersh, Seymour, 158
Hewlett-Packard, 205, 259, 425n.24
Hickey, Fred, 182, 185, 190, 315, 390
Hirsch, Leon, 126
Hoey, Richard, 156
Hoffman, Abbie, 37
home equity loans, 393
Homestake Mining, 376
Hong Kong, 260, 355
housing market, 116, 329
soaring values in, 392–93
Houston Natural Gas, 319
Hulbert, Mark, 170, 186–87, 189, 212, 315, 370, 399–400n.7, 455n.8
IBM, 21, 40, 182, 207, 274, 425n.24
stock performance, 26, 244, 259, 301, 305, 334, 387–88
I bonds, 469n.62
income statement, 177, 243, 275, 389
index funds, 20, 186, 187, 209, 301, 333, 374–75
individual investors, 17–32, 102–22
aftermath of 1990s market and, 334–41
analysts and, 10, 298–99
bear market rallies and, 16, 366
brokerage deregulation effects on, 182–83
buy-and-hold strategy, 7, 21–24, 27, 294, 406n.18
case stories, 105–8, 111–15, 121, 122, 211, 334–39
continued trust in 2000, 325
crash of 1987 effects on, 66–68, 72–73, 77, 86
day trading by, 4
demographics, 45–46, 114, 115, 333–34, 477–78
dividend payments and, 378–81
as drivers of 1990s market, 77, 93, 104–22, 210–12, 234, 335
early 1980s caution, 51
herd mentality, 17–18, 21, 24, 32, 210–12, 215, 226, 288–303, 430n.3
information explosion and, 175–76, 184–85, 189–92
in market of 2003–04, 388, 390, 391, 393
Internet stocks and, 24, 289, 296–97, 334
IPO market and, 24–25, 50
long-term success key, 354
losses (1968–74), 4, 40
losses (2000), 27–29, 31
losses (2002), 333–34
market cycles and, 4, 7, 15, 16, 247, 354, 362–65, 384, 391
as market newcomers, 113–21
in market of 1982–87, 56–60
in market of 1992–95, 118–22, 154, 335, 418
in market of 1995–99, 15
4
in market of 2003–04, 388, 390, 391, 393
media buzz and, 166–67, 300
momentum psychology, 209, 324
motivations, 73, 116–18, 211–12
New Money vs. Old Money behavior of, 43, 334, 382
online trading, 257
as own portfolio managers, 19–20, 185, 288–89, 334
personal stock picks, 29–32, 185, 288–89, 297, 324, 334
stock options’ costs to, 124, 132–33, 135, 136, 137
stock-owning percentage, 18, 105
timing and, 43, 44–45
worst-case scenario, 368, 369
See also investments; mutual funds; retirement plans
inflation capital spending and, 59
compounding and, 382, 383
decline, 19, 47, 63, 75, 378
deflation threat and, 260
Greenspan policies, 92–93, 251, 260, 322, 327–28
interest rates and, 91, 118, 315, 329
investment hedges, 45, 109, 191, 396
lowness in 1990s, 86, 87
market cycle adjustment for, 2, 5, 6
1970s rates, 109, 114–15, 315
pension fixed payments and, 109
as profit gouger, 47
purchasing power and, 407n.23
real asset investments and, 354
real interest rates and, 392, 410nn.12, 13
real returns and, 382–83, 407–8n.23, 423n.49
stock prices and, 45, 49, 109, 264, 408n.25
as takeover boom incentive, 51–52
TIPS hedge against, 374, 383–84, 396, 469n.62
information explosion, 175–92
initial public offerings. See IPOs insider stock sales, 317–24, 390
insider trading, 73, 75, 76, 86
legality of insider stock sales vs., 318, 321
stock options and, 126–27, 133
Institutional Investor, 39, 158, 223
analyst rankings, xix, xx, 206, 292, 295
institutional investors
analyst relationship, xix, xx, xxi, 183, 295
bull market of 1960s and, 51
bull market of 2004 and, 390, 395–96
computerized block trading and, 67–68
declining market forecasts and, 11
Goldman Sachs and, 298
independent researchers and, 182
individual investor’s interests vs., 294–300
IPO holding and, 24
panic buying (1987) by, 63
short sellers and, 55
stock alternatives, 396
Tice newsletter and, 178
See also fund managers
insurance companies, 59
Intel, 106, 205, 259, 277, 289, 314, 327, 328, 387, 425n.24
interest rates
bull market and, 85, 104, 114, 392
capital spending relationship, 85, 328–29
as choice investment factor, 59, 85, 95, 114–15, 211
compounding and, 367, 381–82
debt/equity ratio and, 52–53, 85
decline in (1991), 73, 86, 93
Greenspan policies, 85, 86, 92–96, 114, 115, 251, 252, 286, 322, 323, 328–30, 392, 437–38n.37
halving of long-term, 63
highness in first half of 1980s, 59
historical lowness of, 391, 392, 393
inflation and, 91, 118, 315, 329
investments and, 59, 85, 95, 104, 114–16, 211, 258, 328
merger$acquisitions and, 52
“Nifty Fifty” of 1990s and, 457n.33
real, 410nn.12, 13
real estate and, 376
variable vs. fixed rate loans and, 393
international capitalism, 19
financial crises, 259–60, 263, 282, 284
Internet, 25
investment websites, 154, 166, 184, 196
as market mania factor, 262
online financial news, 161–62
online trading, 18–19, 21, 182, 257, 295, 338
pornography, 194–95, 198
productivity and, 256–57
server price wars, 194, 197, 199
Internet stocks, 178, 218
analyst’s importance to, xviii–xxii, 39, 290–94, 397n.3
AOL case study, 193–202
Blodget and, xviii, xx, 289–97, 299, 300, 347, 350
fund managers and, 295–96
individual investors and, 24, 289, 296–97, 334
insider selling of, 319
losses from, 113
media views of, 26, 30
Meeker and, xviii, xxi–xxii, 97, 100–101, 242, 296–97, 348–49, 455n.7
as overvalued, xxi, 26, 297
InterNorth, 319
investment bankers, 97, 158, 207, 346
analysts’ importance to, xix, xx, xxi, 10, 29, 183, 351
bull market decline and, 10
Goldman Sachs and, 81
high salaries of, 96
Internet start-ups and, xix
IPO holdings and, 24–25, 325–26
investment bankers
leveraged buyouts and, 74, 183
Morgan Stanley and, 97–101, 348–49
as research influence, 10, 184
technology stocks and, 98–99
investments
inflation hedges, 45, 109, 191, 396