America's Worst Economic Depression

by Robert M Davidson

  [ccxlvii]

  The administration of justice is the firmest pillar of government. [ccxlviii]

  Judges have likely come to this fate because most are attorneys before becoming a judge, and US law schools have come to educate more on the merits of winning a case rather than upholding the law and serving truth and justice. While this may be a natural consequence of a competitive free market system, it is not consistent with Judeo-Christian teachings or most any other religious text.

  We must remember that we have to make judges out of men, and that by being made judges their prejudices are not diminished and their intelligence is not increased. [ccxlix]

  Strangely, as a self-proclaimed Christian nation, increasing citizens seem to agree that should Christ return our judicial system would waste no time in “nailing Him to the cross” once again. Judges, for the most part, have much more in common with and an apparent love of the enemy of our Lord than of His Son, and much too often, they act and seem to believe that they are God!

  The greatest act of faith is when a man understands he is not God…. Young man, the secret of my success is that at an early age I discovered that I was not God…. This is a court of law, young man, not a court of justice. [ccl]

  [ccli] Often a judge gets appointed to the bench because they are a politically connected attorney. Such persons who desire a judgeship do so either because they are less than successful as a lawyer, a steady and consistent paycheck with a set work schedule is preferable to the continual struggle of billable legal hours, and/or they desire the instant “honor” that comes with being a judge. None of these reasons is an acceptable one for becoming a judge.

  A judge must bear in mind that when he tries a case he is himself on trial. [cclii]

  In the rare case where these desires do not apply to a person when becoming a judge, most every judge over time appreciates a decent pay relative to the hours in their robes versus those billed as an attorney AND most definitely the “instant honored status” that seems the standard when one becomes a judge.

  We must never forget that the only real source of power that we as judges can tap is the respect of the people. [ccliii]

  It is difficult for our human nature not to appreciate the “honor” that comes with putting on one’s judicial robes day after day, sitting on a bench “above” those who come before you, and making judgments about your fellow man which they must comply with. Unfortunately, this is a Catch 22, because invariably the human ego relishes these things as well as the daily accolades and instant title that come with being a judge whereby one is consistently and regularly addressed as “your honor.”

  [ccliv] Take all the robes of all the good judges that have ever lived on the face of the earth, and they would not be large enough to cover the iniquity of one corrupt judge. [cclv]

  It’s near impossible by our human nature not to believe, over time, that we are in fact worthy of being honored by everyone. With this recognition also comes the belief that as a judge, we are also “better” than others for only we are uniquely qualified to sit in judgment of our fellow man.

  When a judge departs from the letter of the law he becomes a lawbreaker. [cclvi]

  These unique circumstances impact most persons such that they become pre-occupied with what others think of them. Accordingly, their judgments and rulings reflect this desire to be liked, to be respected, and to be popular with others much more than their wish to seek the truth and met justice.

  Four things belong to a judge: to hear courteously, to answer wisely, to consider soberly, and to decide impartially. [cclvii]

  Additionally, most judicial positions become elected officials even if the judgeship was originally appointed. In most any elected position with judicial races being no exception, one’s primary objective will be to appeal to the most people and voters as possible. Unfortunately, the most popular and/or most appealing positions, rulings or judgments are not necessarily the rightful, the truthful, or the judicious ones.

  Judges rule on the basis of law, not public opinion, and they should be totally indifferent to pressures of the times. [cclviii]

  For these reasons, the pendulum has swung so far away from reality, truth, goodness, and justice in our American judicial system that our citizenry would be better served to vote every sitting judge out of office – knowing full well we might lose a few good ones – in order to strip our country’s judiciary of its certain plurality of unfit judges, so we might start over again from scratch. There exists a plethora of organizations and at least one friend or member of every American family who has been hurt directly or indirectly by a biased, unjust, unfit judge.

  Hopefully, you have not been hurt by these unjust judges, but surely, you know and are close to others that have been. Isn't it so sad?

  Justice should not only be done, but should manifestly and undoubtedly be seen to be done. [cclix]

  In concluding this section on America’s judicial branch, let me answer the understandable question by you, the reader: Upon what basis or grounds might I offer this view on America’s judiciary? Upon what basis or grounds might I offer this view on America’s judiciary?

  To that question, please accept that my blood lines are from one of America’s most respected judges and one of only two judges considered as most notable among all judges in our nation’s history, i.e. Chief Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., of the United States Supreme Court.

  Second, my late grandfather, William T. Dean, was a Senior Judge of a local County Superior Court until his retirement, and I would often visit him there and learn by observation as well as his loving and wise counsel from an early age.

  Third, I have had more than my share of direct or indirect courtroom and legal experiences through my early employments, my own businesses, and through friends and associates.

  Fourth, by the accounts of nationally ranked domestic attorneys, dozens of local attorneys and local or statewide judges, I’ve been termed “the victim of the worse, most unjust, and most unfair divorce in the history of the State of Georgia.” This case has found me in and out of court every few months before six unethical judges in two Georgia counties and a slew of unethical attorneys and so called professionals for some 18 years now.

  Finally, I’m blessed through close associations with a wealth of persons throughout America and abroad from the most respected of families to those less than noticed as well as watchdog judicial groups. With these persons, I continue a common dialogue in hopes of finding a solution to America’s failed judiciary alongside the other institutions cited in this book towards a brighter future for all in America and surely, the world.

  [cclx] Appropriately and as we near the end of this judicial section, please hear these words from the Christian Bible as are pertinent to the concerns in America’s judicial system and likely the judiciary in other countries, too, as follows:

  1 You shall not spread a false report. You shall not join hands with the wicked to act as a malicious witness. 2 You shall not follow a majority in wrongdoing; when you bear witness in a lawsuit, you shall not side with the majority so as to pervert justice; 3 nor shall you be partial to the poor in a lawsuit. [cclxi]

  You shall appoint for yourself judges and officers in all your towns which the Lord your God is giving you, according to your tribes, and they shall judge the people with righteous judgment. You shall not distort justice; you shall not be partial, and you shall not take a bribe, for a bribe blinds the eyes of the wise and perverts the words of the righteous. Justice and only justice, you shall pursue, that you may live and possess the land which the Lord your God is giving you. [cclxii]

  3 You love evil more than good, and lying more than speaking the truth. Selah! 4 You love all words that devour, O deceitful tongue. 5 But God will break you down forever; he will snatch and tear you from your tent; he will uproot you from the land of the living. [cclxiii]

  11 Do not let the slanderer be established in the land; let evil speedily hunt down the violent! 12 I know t
hat the LORD maintains the cause of the needy, and executes justice for the poor. 13 Surely the righteous shall give thanks to your name; the upright shall live in your presence. [cclxiv]

  These also are sayings of the wise: Partiality in judging is not good. Whoever says to the wicked, "You are innocent," will be cursed by peoples, abhorred by nations; but those who rebuke the wicked will have delight, and a good blessing will come upon them. [cclxv]

  4 So the law becomes slack and justice never prevails. The wicked surround the righteous -- therefore judgment comes forth perverted. [cclxvi]

  In finishing this chapter, you're likely amazed at how America in every branch of its government and on all levels from the Federal to each state, county, city, and smaller has departed severely from the framework laid down by its founding fathers and even as passed down by God’s prophets. As you begin to absorb this information, you'll quickly conclude that these political failings are ultimately borne by America’s citizens who fund our government “for better or for worse” and protect it through our lives and those of our children. America is on a similar path to that taken by the Roman Empire before its demise.

  Only extreme, positive changes to our nation’s political structure at the earliest opportunity might prevent America’s own demise - possibly wasting its valuable natural resources and good, decent citizens. The Political Failings of America’s every governmental branch is the fifth reason behind the coming economic storm and its adverse ripple effect throughout the entire world.

  This next chapter is introducing the long wave Cycle founded by the late Russian Economist Nicholai Kondratieff. Do you remember hearing anything about Kondratieff's Long Wave Cycle research before? Did you know that his research reveals another compelling reason for the coming economic storm? Have you noticed yet – like the pieces to a puzzle – how each contributing factor for the storm ahead seems to fall so neatly into place? And as you are thinking about that, let’s learn about Cycles, the sixth reason behind the economic storm ahead.

  Cycles

  In understanding America’s economy in these years and decades ahead, we would be remiss not to include the “long economic wave” cycle as formulated by the late Russian economist Nicholai Kondratieff.

  [cclxvii]

  Born Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratieff on March 4, 1892, he was a noted economist and statistician in Russian educational circles. He began working with the Soviet government in the 1920s to help develop their first five year economic plan based on an analysis of factors that would stimulate Russian economic growth.

  In 1925 with the publication of his book The Major Economic Cycles , he received international acclaim for his research on what he termed as 54 year economic cycles in capitalist economies from Boom to Bust. His conclusions in this book and related papers were viewed as a criticism of Stalin since Kondratieff held that Western, free market economies would recover from their economic collapse to be stronger and more successful into their next boom.

  Accordingly, the Soviets removed him from his position as Director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in 1928. In 1930, he was sentenced to prison in Siberia where he spent his time making small rocks from big ones until his death sentence was issued in 1938, and likely carried out that same year.

  [cclxviii]

  Brothers William and Douglas Kirkland of Phoenix, Arizona, published their book Power Cycles in June of 1985 which offered an exceptional explanation of Kondratieff’s early research relative to the American economy. The Kirkland’s defined four distinct long term cycles of 45-60 year duration, as follows: (1) 1785 - 1849; (2) 1849 - 1898; (3) 1898 – 1948; and, (4) 1948 - ? In extrapolating the next lowest economic point from that in the Great Depression, agreed by most to be 1933, it could be reasoned that 1987, or 54 years from 1933, might be the lowest economic point in the current long wave cycle.

  The best documented substantiation of the Kondratieff theory is the economic history of the United States from the Revolutionary War to the present. During this period, we have been able to identify three complete long term cycles and a partial fourth cycle, each approximately 54 years in duration…. Real estate investments have long-term boom-and-bust cycles that closely parallel the long-term economic cycles of the Kondratieff wave…. The specter of these foreign debt defaults on the international credit markets is usually the prime contributor to the final and often most devastating phase of the depression…. Although government or other financially powerful institutions can temporarily postpone or skew the magnitude and the duration of the debt cycle, the natural corrective process of the free markets always prevails, and economic balance is eventually restored…. The more serious the panic, the greater the proportion of wealth that is transferred from the inefficient to the efficient. [cclxix]

  As already cited in this book, other factors contributing to such an economic bottom have been in place since the 1970s in this country relative to similar variables before the Great Depression. While we did see a large drop in the Dow of over 500 points on Monday, October 19, 1987, we have also enjoyed a much higher and more robust stock market and real estate market right into this first new millennium decade. This, as cited earlier, is best explained by Reagan's introduction of the PPT in early 1988 for manipulating the US stock market.

  Kondratieff defined a complete cycle as we know the seasons of nature in a calendar year, i.e. Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter.

  In Kondratieff‘s research, Spring brings new life and is the cycle leading the free market out of the economic bottom, which is known as Winter.

  Summer brings the heat and the season with the most expansive growth as the stock market’s dizzying heights best reflects.

  Fall is pleasant with more moderate temperatures, and is the economic Plateau cycle where the expansion is more moderate though sustained and where debt goes ever higher.

  Finally, as Winter brings cooler temperatures that stops flowering plants and other growth in nature, Kondratieff ‘s Winter is the period where the massive capitalist expansionary debt stops the economic growth until these debts are settled before Spring when its flowers and growth can re-emerge.

  [cclxx]

  Many Kondratieff prognosticators believe Winter began with the stock market collapse lead by the dot coms in 2000, as depicted in the chart below for the Nasdaq stock index. Noted market letter writers explain the dollar valuation of the broader based S & P 500 actually made its highs before that collapse in 2000, though the smaller Dow composite made its highs on October 11, 2007, at 14,198.10.

  [cclxxi]

  America’s Second Great Depression, according to those following Kondratieff, is inevitable and will be much worse than the last Depression as America’s Debt, a key factor behind a Depression, today dwarfs that in the late 1920’s by over 10 times. US Debt reached 40% of our GDP during the Great Depression, though today exceeds our GDP by as much as 350%.

  In defense of Kondratieff’s research and his proposed idealized long wave of 54 years, I believe firmly that his research is correct with the possible exception of three unusual US situations that he was not aware before his death in 1938.

  First and chronologically, was the socialistic trends in America’s capitalist society through President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, and more importantly, the subversive, controlling, and socialistic actions taken by America’s leaders as cited in this book contrary to free markets and a true capitalist economic model.

  [cclxxii]

  Second, and more important and impossible for Kondratieff to have known, was the massive increase in the US population after World War II, where this Baby Boom generation reached its most productive and prosperous years in the decades of the 1990s and 2000s which may have elongated his long economic wave cycle.

  Third, technology has become such a powerful economic engine in capitalistic economies and possibly elongating, once again, his long wave cycle.

  Modern students of Kondratieff's work believe his 54 year wave might now be aki
n to an 80 year wave. Today's best Kondratieff long wave will be found at this website of Ian Gordon: http://www.longwavegroup.com/ .

  Investment adviser Ian Gordon has advocated a 4 season Kondratiev social mood influenced model in which spring is moderate growth from a stock market and inflationary bottom, summer is characterized by accelerating growth and high inflation, autumn is characterized by declining inflation and asset bubbles, and winter involves the collapse of the asset bubbles. [cclxxiii]

  Other economists and financial writers have cited Nicholai Kondratieff’s long term cycles and his extensive economic research in support of their own beliefs and findings about markets.

  It was N. D. Kondratieff, however, who brought the phenomenon fully before the scientific community and who systematically analyzed all material available to him on the assumption of the presence of a Long Wave, characteristic of the capitalist process. [cclxxiv]

  The position of the current Kondratieff cycle supports the case for deflation directly ahead…. You can also see evidence of the Kondratieff cycle in the price of money extended to reliable borrowers. Since total borrowing contracts during deflation, prime interest rates fall…. If the Kondratieff cycle performs normally, the combined rate of change for the PPI and CPI will soon go negative. Whatever the cycle’s timing may be, it's sequence calls for several more years of declining commodity prices, a few years of newly declining wholesale and retail prices and a sharp decline in industrial production. These trends will end when the deflation ends, at the bottom of the cycle. [cclxxv]

  In conclusion, Kondratieff’s Cycle research is the 6th reason for the surefire likelihood of the United States' difficult economic times ahead. America's storm will surely spill over to every other country in the world, because of the strong US global presence in trade as well as the heavy debts held by other nations. This makes the further case for a worldwide economic storm in the near future.