Dynamic Full Ring Poker

by James Sweeney

  We can also look at it when a player has a high limp/call and a high FoldvCB. This player is usually going to call preflop but play fit-or-fold on the flop. This means our hand doesn't matter as much because we know a simple raise/CB will show an outright profit, regardless of our cards. Again, we can make better plays given information gleaned from stat correlation.

  There are plenty of other stat correlations that we can use, but those are the ones that are most helpful to our game. As we get more and more comfortable with our HUD we should look to see if certain stats in certain ranges tell us other things about our opponent, but for now, just using these will put us ahead of their game. Just remember to keep the sample size in mind, and don't make big decisions based off small amounts of data!

  The Quick Inference

  There are plenty of times when we don't have a large sample size on a player. Maybe we have only an orbit's worth of hands, or maybe a few orbits. Sample sizes are key to knowing if the stats we have are “real” or if they are unreliable. Here are some basic breakdowns on sample sizes:

  0-30 hands: a very small sample size

  50 hands: a small but usable sample size

  250 hands: a good sample size

  1000 hands: a really good sample size

  2500+ hands: an amazing sample size

  This doesn't mean that a sample size of 25 hands is useless. It just means that our reads will be less reliable in that sample size. It also means certain stats will have little to no relevance. For instance, say a person restole once in those 25 hands. That means their resteal stat might be 100% on our HUD. Obviously their resteal will not be 100% over 800 hands, so we can pretty much just assume we have no real data on their resteal, because the situation hasn't come up enough for us to have a good idea.

  Now, the VPIP and PFR stats gain datapoints with every hand, and thus we can use a small sample size to more effectively estimate a player's player type using those stats alone. If a player is 66/8 over 30 hands, we can assume they are shaping up to be very weak-loose. If a player is 10/10 over 50 hands we can assume they will most likely be a TAG or nit player when their sample size gets larger. However, it should be noted that we will often times not have big sample sizes on fishy players. They tend not to last long enough, nor play enough tables, for us to collect enough of a sample size on them. This is why small samples are helpful, assuming we use the data with a grain of salt.

  Certain stats will need larger samples to be reliable. We should consider setting our HUD to only show certain stats when we have enough samples of it happening. For instance, seeing how a player resteals over 3 situations isn't very useful, but seeing how they resteal over 10 situations gives us more samples and thus more reliability. Looking at a Foldv3B stat over 25 hands won't give us much information, and thus we might ignore6 the stat until enough samples of that action occur. Just because a player has X% for a stat, doesn't mean they will have X% against us. Some players might attack us more or less than they would other players. Because of this, remember to take notes so we have more specific information on given players.

  Players might also change their style over time. Having 9,000 hands on a player is great, but if they played 12/10 over the first 4,000, 14/11 over the next 2,000, and 18/15 over the last 3,000 hands, we have really skewed data. Because of this, we really only want to see current data on a player to ensure our stat reads are real and reliable. Ensuring that our HUD only shows the latest 3 months (or less) of data on a player is a good way to ensure the stats are as real as possible. However, if we see a player who's stats are 12/9 but it seems like he has been ramping up preflop aggression over the last week, we might want to set our HUD to filter specifically for him. Remember that any information is always helpful, but lots of reliable information is the nuts.

  The LAG Transition

  Because many players either utilize a LAG style incorrectly, or totally dismiss it, I wanted to talk about it for a little bit. First off, LAG play is not necessary. You don't ever have to play it if you are not comfortable with it. Many players make the mistake of jumping into LAG play without fully understanding the style and it often times turns out poorly. The thing to remember about LAG play is that it really isn't much different than TAG play. I normally just say that a good LAG is effectively a TAG on steroids.

  There are really just 2 big differences between a TAG and a LAG:

  Preflop Pressure. A TAG understands position, steals well, 3-bets well, and uses a very solid range from all spots. A LAG isn't all that different. They keep a tight EP range, relatively similar MP range, but use LP more aggressively. They steal much more often, 3-bet more in good spots, and pressure players more liberally. However, a LAG isn't just making plays for the sake of buffing up their stats. They take situations that are good and make +EV plays. If a good spot arises, they take it. Yes, their stats are a bit higher, but only because they are taking as many spots as they can find, whereas a TAG will pass up on some of the thinner edges.

  6 We can use filters in our HUD software to only show stats after X number of hands and/or samples. This is a great way to ensure we only see stats when they are usable and more reliable.

  Postflop Pressure. A TAG will apply some pressure postflop by CBing in good spots, double barreling in good spots, and by making some well-timed bluffs. A LAG takes this a step further and looks for more spots where he can use his aggression to pick up pots. A LAG assumes that every pot belongs to him, and if he senses a bluff will show profit, he stabs at it. However, he still understands showdown value and not bluffing players that don't fold, just like the TAG does. Again, a LAG just looks for more spots to apply pressure, taking the spots that a TAG might avoid.

  So, there is a clear distinction between the two player types. This is not to say that we need to go out and play LAG tomorrow. In fact, this is written for quite the opposite reason. As poker players, we have certain edges. Our edges grow as we get experience and improve our strategic game. When we are starting out we want to play tight to keep ourselves out of trouble while building a solid foundation. Once we improve, we can start looking for more spots which can be to our advantage. While we should always be on the look out for edges to exploit, we don’t take them until we know how to and are comfortable with the parameters of a certain play. Again, preflop play is all about setting ourselves up for good spots postflop. So don’t get too crazy preflop until you are sure that you can handle the postflop spots that can and will arise.

  9. The Postflop Warm Up

  For the postflop warm up, we again want to make sure we're both on the same page as far as terms and framing parameters. The postflop part of the book will be a bit more theory based because the vast number of situations that could arise would fill up about 28 volumes. The goal is for you to be able to process the necessary information and extrapolate the best play from that information. So let's talk about some of the basics of postflop play.

  The Pot Geometry

  I first came across this term about five years ago and have loved the concept ever since. Pot geometry is a way of visualizing what every chip we put in the pot does to the size of the pot now, and also later in the hand. Let's take a hand at 100NL where we raise to $3 and a P-fish calls from the button. Let's look at some different situations:

  The pot on the flop is $7.5. If we bet pot on all streets, it would make for a $7.5 bet on the flop, $22.5 bet on the turn, and $67.5 on the river, for a total pot size of $202.5.

  The pot on the flop is $7.5. If we bet ⅔ pot on all streets, it would make for a $5 bet on the flop, $11.5 bet on the turn, and $27 on the river, for a total pot size of ~$94.

  The pot on the flop is $7.5. If we bet 1/2 pot on all streets, it would make for a $3.75 bet on the flop, $7.5 bet on the turn, and $15 on the river, for a total pot size of $60.

  We see with three very different bet sizes we have accomplished incredibly different pot sizes. Betting pot on every street makes getting stacks in the middle very easy, whereas betting half pot on all
streets creates a much smaller pot size. This is not to say that one size is overall better than another. But by understanding pot geometry we can visualize situations better. We can think ahead and plan for pot sizes that our hand strength flourishes in.

  This concept is also important when thinking about betting versus checking. Say we have a hand strength on the turn that doesn't do well in a large pot size and a bet would start creating that large pot size. This would usually be a good time to consider checking which can ultimately create a better pot size for our hand. Of course, this is very general advice because it is so hand specific whether a check is best here, or a bet turn/check river line, or whatever. Again, the goal is to get us thinking deeper and considering the pot sizes we are creating, and the validity of those pot sizes.

  The Elastic vs. Inelastic Calling Ranges

  Many economic principals carry over nicely into poker. The concept of elasticity is one that we want to consider quite often when thinking about our bet sizing in a particular hand. Let's first define elastic and inelastic calling ranges:

  Elastic calling ranges

  These are ranges that get more or less calls based on the size of the bet. For instance, if the pot is $100, our opponent would call a $5 bet at a much higher frequency than a $90 bet if he were an elastic caller. Most players in the game are elastic. They call more often versus smaller bets and they call less versus bigger bets. Our goal when value betting is finding the size that generates us the highest $EV.

  Inelastic calling ranges

  These are ranges that call at the same frequency, regardless of the size of the bet. So if the pot is $100, an inelastic caller would call a $5 bet just as often as he would call a $90 bet. Many fish are inelastic because when they think their hand is strong enough they don't consider bet sizes like we do.

  As the games continue to get tougher and tougher, one of the best ways we can improve our winrate is by improving our bet sizing. We need to ensure that we minimize the loss on our losing hands and maximize the profit on our winning hands (minimax). Understanding elasticity is one of the ways to help our bet sizing. Taking notes is a helpful way of figuring out if a player is elastic or inelastic, but hand reading can also help.

  Many players are elastic callers, but inelastic with certain hand strengths. Lots of times players just never want to fold sets or trips or stronger hand strengths. So if we deduce that a player most likely has one of these holdings, and that they are inelastic with them, then value betting bigger would always be a good idea.

  The Hand Reading Basics

  Hand reading is a very complex topic to talk about given everything that goes into hand reading well. Oftentimes it is experience that makes a player a very solid hand reader. Exposure to the game and logical actions and frequencies of the player types in the game will improve hand reading. This section aims to give some basic advice on improving this essential skill.

  It's in the ranges

  We are not trying to guess our opponent's exact hand. Very often we would just never know their exact holding. Instead, we care about putting our opponent on a range of logical hands. For tighter players this range is usually easier to deduce. For looser and more erratic players, this range can be very difficult to figure out.

  Always start from the beginning

  Whenever we are hand reading we start from the beginning. If our opponent raises from EP and he has an EPPFR of 7% and we call IP, we can assume his range is 22+/AK. If we open a pot and an opponent with a 3b% of 2% 3-bets us, and we call, we can assume his range on the flop is QQ+/some AK. Many players forget to start at the beginning which makes hand reading almost impossible. When we are figuring out a range we start with a range (made from his preflop actions) and then that range gets smaller and smaller based upon his postflop actions. We never want to treat a range like a bag that we just randomly throw hands into. Instead we use a logical progression of range elimination based upon actions.

  Actions indicate ranges

  Most players take particular actions with certain hands, and we can use this to our advantage. If we know a player would always CR the flop with a set, but he check/called the flop, we can heavily discount sets (considering hand combinations) from his range. Regulars in the micros tend to take the same lines over and over with certain hand strengths. So if we know this, and see them take a particular line, we can more accurately figure out their range and take correct actions later in the hand. Erratic players can make this difficult, but they still tend to be passive with mediocre hands and aggressive with bluffs and nuts. Any information helps, so make sure to take notes on the lines our opponents take and with which hands.

  Allocate for idiocy

  The dumber an opponent is, the more we need to allocate a percentage of his range to unknown stuff. Usually, the more aggressive and dumb a player is, the more of a percentage we should allocate for them. Maybe we say that 10% of their range is idiotic (random bluffs, turning bottom pair into a bluff, etc.) which could be the deciding factor in making a call or fold. Usually the tighter, and more normalized, a player is the less of a percentage we would allocate. If we are playing against a nit, we can just assume he would rarely do anything idiotic enough for us to allocate a percentage of his range to it.

  Blind spots

  There are times when we have blind spots to our opponent's range, and we rely almost entirely on their actions and board textures to figure out our line. Take a spot where we steal with TT, a player resteals with a 12% range, and we call. We think his range of restealing is JJ+/AQ+/KQ and bluffs. This means almost half of his range is bluffs, which could mean hands like 22, A5s or J7o. So half of his range is a blind spot to us. We need to read his postflop action based on the board texture to have a better idea of what to do. While it is frustrating dealing with these blind spots, they are standard when dealing with aggressive players who 3b/4b/5b/CR/raise aggressively.

  Bet sizes can contort ranges

  As we've talked about quite a bit already, and will continue to talk about, our bet sizes can change our opponent's ranges. If we bet smaller, we expect our opponent to continue with a wider range of hands. If we bet bigger, we expect our opponent to continue with a stronger range of hands. So if we have been betting pot sized bets in a hand, we can expect our opponent's range is going to be incredibly strong as we get deeper and deeper in the hand. Subsequently, if we bet smaller on every street, we can expect more hands to continue. Again, the actions tweak the way our opponent's ranges contort in a hand.

  The Pot Size Thresholds

  Pot size thresholds (PST) are a more theoretical concept but frame how we can think about postflop play. One of the biggest issues that micro players have is pot size creation, or more correctly, the pot sizes they create with certain hand strengths. They make pots that are too large and blow out second best hands when they value bet (VB), and they risk too much for bluffs. Much money is made or lost in this important bet sizing detail of our strategy.

  Pot size thresholds are certain points where bets can turn from good to bad. They are dependent on lots of things such as board textures, opponent's player type, history, previous actions, range, etc. Let's take an example so we can visualize it:

  Say we raise AJ from MP and the SB calls us with 100bb and we go HU on an A82 flop. He checks and we bet $4 and he calls. The turn is a T and he checks to us. At this point we can check or bet, but let's take a look at some things that might help us come up with an answer.

  “If we bet, what kinds of hands will he continue with?”

  “If we bet, what pot size will it create?”

  “If we bet, and face a CR, can we continue?”

  “What is the rest of our plan in this hand?”

  These are simple questions, but all of them revolve around the size of the pot we are ultimately creating. If we bet the turn and nothing worse continues and nothing better folds, then we should just check. If a bet would get called by a very wide range of second best hands, then we should more heavily c
onsider betting. By simply asking ourselves a few questions, the big ones being “what does a bet accomplish?” and “what pot size would be good or bad,” we can create our lines much more easily.

  This all relates to PST because certain hands tend to continue more liberally in smaller pots than larger pots. Just thinking about basic bet theory we remember that small bets get called by a wider range, and bigger bets get called by a smaller and stronger range of hands. This same concept is true with pot size creation. In a smaller pot size players will show up with more hands, usually weaker in strength. In bigger pot sizes we can expect players to show up with stronger and stronger ranges as the pot gets bigger and bigger.

  What we can extrapolate from this is more heavily considering pot size creation as we play and plan our hands. If we know that a particular opponent wouldn't get involved in a pot bigger than 40bb without a set or better, we know how to bluff him, and just as importantly, how to value bet him. We know that if we want to bluff we need to threaten a pot bigger than 40bb, and if we want to value bet him we probably need to keep it under 40bb. Thus, 40bb is his PST. It is his size threshold where he only continues with the strongest part of his range.