Dynamic Full Ring Poker

by James Sweeney

  On a board like this the important factors are our opponent’s CB frequencies and how he values overpairs. If he would always CB his pairs and give liberal action to the CR, then we should go for the CR. If he would start checking pairs like TT or JJ behind on the flop, then donking becomes the best way to get 3 streets of value. But what if he would always stack off QQ+ and not always 99-JJ? This just becomes a simple math problem:

  Assumptions: He would CB 99-AA only and always for $4. He would always stack off QQ+ now and never 99-JJ. If he has AK we never make anything (obviously this isn’t always true as he could check behind AK, improve on the turn, and pay off. We will just make this assumption to make the math easier and more focused on the pair part of range) We will also just ignore the rake and dead small blind.

  The math on this would also change as the board went from 755 to something like 885 or 665. When we have quads our opponent has almost no equity, even with a hand like AA. But on a board like 885, an over pair would have almost 17% equity. If we took the same assumptions (where he would fold 99-JJ, and stack off QQ+ always) we see this:

  Assumptions: He would CB 99-AA only and always for $4. He would always stack off QQ+ now and never 99-JJ. Again we’ll just assume that if he has AK we never make anything.

  While this situation would still have a lot of value, it is important that we understand how equity changes versus commitment ranges effect the $EV of a play. That doesn’t mean that we need to take another line (given the parameters we have laid out). Just make sure to think about basic equities and frequencies when making plays and creating lines.

  (A quick note: these $EV equations are worst case scenarios. $EV goes up as hands like JJ make mistakes, when we take into account AK paying off on a K turn, etc.)

  So, with all of the above in mind, we should be able to come up with an optimal decision when we flop a big hand. In MW pots we play straight forward and usually raise our big hands right away. In MW pots we stay focused on relative position and take lines that exploit sandwiching callers. In 3-bet pots we focus on board textures and what our opponent’s C-Range would be in a 3-bet pot. Because we have a smaller SPR we can sometimes play a bit slower because getting our stack in the middle is very feasible in just two streets. And in HU pots we really pay attention to board textures and our opponent’s ranges and tendencies. Because the SPR is usually so much deeper, getting stacks in can sometimes be difficult. Just focus on making the most money possible as often as possible. Sometimes getting 65% of their stack is the best we can do. Focus, exploit, manipulate, and win.

  16. Flop Adjustments

  Now we can talk about a few leftover flop play topics: the HUD stats that are useful, different stat correlations, and little plays that happen less often, like handling donk bets. While most of this could have been extrapolated from what we’ve already discussed, here we’ll clarify certain topics while exploring some new details.

  The Postflop HUD Stats

  FlopCB. The CB stat lets us know how often our opponents are CBing the flop. If they CB at a higher frequency, then we can assume that they CB wider pieces of their ranges. There are some players that have very small CB frequencies, and these are people that tend to only CB their strong hands and check their weak hands. Just looking at a CB frequency won’t tell us if they are “CB-and-quit” type players, but it can help us visualize their CB range more accurately. Remember that the CB stat looks at an aggregate of HU pots and also MW pots, and that people tend to CB less in MW pots than HU pots. (A high FlopCB would be higher than 80%, and a low FlopCB would be less than 60%)

  FoldvCB. This stat tells us how often our opponent folds facing a CB. Higher numbers indicate that a player is playing more fit-or-fold, and very low numbers indicate liberal peeling. We can use this stat while considering preflop plays (like isolating), and plan plays around good sample sizes. Remember that this number also looks at HU pots and MW pots in a combined way. There is also a specific stat for FoldvCBin3betPot, and we should use that when appropriate, remembering that it can take a massive sample size for this stat to be meaningful. (A high FoldvCB would be higher than 70%, and a low FoldvCB would be less than 40%)

  CR. The CR stat lets us know how often our opponent is check-raising the flop. This can be helpful if we have a hand strength that doesn’t face a CR well. Against players with high CR percentages we might have to be prepared to continue a little more liberally versus the CR. However, just because a player has a higher CR percentage, doesn’t mean that they will run massive bluffs postflop. It might just mean that they CR-and-quit as a bluff sometimes, and only continue on the turn or river with value hands. Players that CR often can be difficult, but we can also check behind the flop with SDV hands or pay attention to their turn/river tendencies to create plays that work well against them. (A high CR would be more than 16%, and a low CR would be less than 7%)

  FoldvCR. This lets us know how often a player folds versus a CR. Because CRing can be an action that happens more rarely in FR, it can take a very long time for this stat to have enough samples to be meaningful. If a player has a very large FoldvCR we should consider CRing them more often and picking up their CB. However, in this case we would want to look at numerous variables. Does this player have a high CB number? (aka, is their O-Range wide enough?) Is this player CBing into an MW or HU pot? Is this the correct type of board texture to attack and create enough folds on? Is this player a hand reader? (If so, am I repping anything?) While the FoldvCR stat is useful, it is often times necessary to consider a wider array of variables before going for the CR. (A high FoldvCR would be more than 75%, and a low FoldvCR would be less than 40%)

  Donk. A donk bet is a bet that is made into the aggressor. So if we steal, the SB calls, and the SB bets the flop into us, it is considered a donk. Knowing how often a player donks can helpful. If a player rarely does it then we can assume their donk range is probably made with big hands and big equity hands (draws and such). Players that donk often can be difficult to play against, and usually it comes down to postflop reads, the value of our own hand, and the board texture. It should also be noted that good players tend to only donk strong into MW pots, especially MW pots with fish and good relative positions.

  TurnCB. Knowing how often a player raises PF, CBs the flop, and then bets again on the turn can be very helpful. It can let us know if floating is good (a high flopCB and low TurnCB) or pretty bad (low flopCB and high turnCB). Once we get used to this stat it can help us visualize if a player is taking a lot of bet/bet/X lines with SDV hands, or going for more bet/check/X lines with them. (A high TurnCB would be higher than 75%, and a low TurnCB would be less than 30%. The average range varies heavily based on play style. Tight players will be able to turn CB for value more often than players who raise more liberally PF)

  FoldvTurnCB. This lets us know how often a player folds versus a TurnCB. If a player has a high FoldvTurnCB we can usually assume that they only continue from the turn onwards with super strong hands. A low number here lets us know that our opponent might call more liberally against double barrels. This number really needs to be looked at from a big picture point of view to be very helpful. A big or small number here, by itself, doesn’t tell us too much. But coupled with things like FoldvFlopCB and a player’s river call win % (RCW) we can get some really good ideas on how to exploit this person.

  WTSD. This stat lets us know how often a player went to showdown. A player with a large WTSD is not one we usually want to be bluffing, rather we would want to VB him relentlessly. Again, this needs to be looked at in a big picture sense. A nit might have a higher WTSD, but that is because his PF range is strong and thus will retain strong hands postflop that can more comfortably get to SD. A fish might have a high WTSD, but that’s because he continues too liberally to get there. (A high WTSD would be more than 30%, and a low WTSD would be less than 20%)

  W$@SD. This stat lets us know how often a player wins money when they get to showdown. A player with a very small W$@SD usually gets t
o SD with bad hands, either by bluffing or calling. A high W$@SD can tell us that a player might only get to SD with the strongest of hands. This, looked at in a big picture sense, might lead us to believe that we can try bluffing them early in the hand more liberally because they only want to showdown nuttish hands. (A high W$@SD would be more than 59%, and a low W$@SD would be less than 45%)

  RCW. This is a player’s river call win %. Effectively it tells us how often they win the pot if they call a river bet. A low RCW might lead us to believe that we can VB them liberally and should avoid river bluffs against them. A high RCW might lead us to believe that we can bluff them early in a hand, because when they get to the river by calling they are usually very strong. A high RCW might also mean that they take a lot of inducing lines, which is usually the case from good opponents. (A high RCW would be more than 50%, and a low RCW would be less than 35%)

  Of course, we only have so much room on our HUD when we are playing. And some stats need massive samples before they are any sort of helpful. We need to choose HUD stats that we understand and have use for. So if we are playing very tight and focused on VBing, then we might consider using stats like RCW and W$@SD. If we are playing a very LAG game, focused on double barreling and bluffing, then we might consider stats like FoldvTurnCB and FoldvCR. Stats are personal and should fit well in the games and styles that we are playing. Of course, most of these stats are available in the pop up, but our actual HUD should be built with our style and meaningfulness in mind.

  The Postflop HUD Stat Correlations

  We talked in the PF section about HUD stat correlations, and there are some specific HUD correlations that we can use in our postflop game. While often times we do need a bigger sample size to really utilize them (as postflop situations always happen more rarely than preflop situations), they can be extremely helpful in selecting optimal lines. The more help we can get in creating lines that more specifically exploit our opponent, the better off we will be.

  FoldvFlopCB and FoldvTurnCB

  This correlation can help us decide whether or not we are going to double barrel. A player with a low FoldvFlopCB and high FoldvTurnCB can tell us that this player calls the CB a lot, and gives up on the turn without having a nuttish hand. This information can help us plan our hand and line. We might CB more of our range with intentions of double barreling against a player who calls the flop and folds the turn often. We sometimes see a player that has a high FoldvFlopCB and low FoldvTurnCB, but this shouldn’t shock us too much. This player, once they call the flop CB, are usually going to try and SD, because their flop C-Range is so strong.

  FlopCB and TurnCB

  This correlation can help us see how often our opponent is going to double barrel. A high FlopCB and high TurnCB indicates that this player is betting both streets often. This is most helpful when considering whether to float or value call. If we are trying to call a hand like 88 on a 9 high flop, but see he CBs the flop and turn at a very high frequency, then we know getting to SD for cheap will be difficult.

  We can also use this with stats like “FoldvTurnBet”. Say a player has a high FlopCB, low turnCB, and high FoldvTurnBet. This player would be awesome to float against. We know he is going to CB often, not going to bet the turn often, and will play the turn very straight forward. Of course, we need big samples with these stats because board textures and how they play against their own opponents will skew these numbers one way or the other. Taking notes on how opponents play against us in these spots is usually the best way to create lines against them.

  WTSD and W$@SD

  This correlation lets us visualize how this opponent gets to SD, and with what frequency. Our favorite opponent is one with a very high WTSD and very low W$@SD. This person makes a lot of postflop mistakes, and should be heavily exploited with our strong hands. This person is also pretty bad to bluff because they don’t mind getting to SD with lighter holdings.

  Certain players might look odd here. For instance, a nit might have a high WTSD and high W$@SD. This shouldn’t shock us given that they use a really strong range at all times, and when they get to SD (which they will be able to to more often given their PF hand range) they will be winning it more often. We also need to consider the bigger picture when considering players like good LAGs. These players might sometimes have a very small WTSD and a relatively low W$@SD. This is because they run a lot of pot shot bluffs that usually allow them to get to SD often in small pots, and usually with unimproved hands. So while this correlation might make them look like a fish, we need to consider the big picture and figure out why it might only look that way.

  3-Bet and CBwhen3bet

  This correlation is great when considering our lines in 3-bet pots. A player with a large 3-bet and low CBwhen3bet is someone we may consider floating liberally postflop. A large 3-bet means that their 3-bet range is wide, and usually weaker. A low CBwhen3bet might indicate a player that is only CBing when their hand is strong (and we know a wide 3-bet range won’t hit strong on the flop all that often). A player like this can be floated postflop in position and bet into when they check on the flop. Of course, this correlation needs massive samples to be useful. And again, just because he has odd looking numbers here doesn’t mean that he will generally approach us in the same manner. Notes and experience with this player should supersede this stat correlation in smaller samples.

  Callv3bet and FoldvCBin3betPot

  This correlation can be helpful and assist us as early in a hand as PF. Just because a player has a high Callv3bet doesn’t necessarily mean we can’t light 3-bet them. If they have a high FoldvCBin3betPot, we can 3-bet and CB with a positive expectation. Although these players are rare, they do exist and should be punished until they adjust.

  The standard is to see a player with a small Callv3bet and small FoldvCBin3betPot. This makes sense as the player will only continue versus a 3-bet with a strong range, and thus won’t be folding to a CB with it. Against players like this we should be less apt to bluff CB if our resteals get called. Like always, take notes on how a player is reacting in these spots against us. They can help us frame our own future frequencies, so much that we might change our 3-bet range against them.

  The Free Play Pots

  There are the rare times when we are in the BB, it gets limped to us, and we check with our weak hand. Lot of players pass on a lot of the profit potential of this situation by playing it too passively postflop. These pots are perfect for taking little pot shots with equity. Most other players have no will to fight against a bettor, and thus we should look to add these little pots to our win rate whenever possible.

  Take a situation where MP2 limps, the SB completes, and we check the BB with T8o. The flop comes 762 and the SB checks to us. We should try to pick this pot up by taking a little ½ – ⅔ PSB. We have equity in the pot, the SB probably doesn’t have much (deduced from his check), and we just assume that MP2 will fold enough to make it profitable. If we get called or raised we can play poker, but stabbing is much better than just checking the flop and giving our opponents chances to bet at the pot themselves or letting them hit the turn and get stuck to the pot. (Of course, if the games are playing very aggressively and opponents are attacking these little pots, then allowing our opponents to make betting mistakes might be the best line)

  The same thing can be said for the times we have something like Q6s in that same situation on a K64 or As8s3d board. We picked up equity, we don’t mind picking the pot up right here, and there is no reason to let anyone else have this pot. This does get a little different when the number of players in the pot gets higher and higher though. For instance, in a three person pot we can stab more liberally than a five person pot. The fewer players there are to get through, the more we should fire with our equity in these free play pots. The more players there are to get through, the more often we are just check/folding without big draws or very strong hands.

  The Draw

  Although most books have an extensive chapter on draws, for us draws
don’t comprise much of our postflop range. The most probable ways we catch draws are when we open raise from EP/MP and catch a NFD, when we steal and catch a draw, or when we resteal and catch some sort of draw. We are rarely calling with suited connectors and such hands, so it’s not often that we catch these draws in the first place.

  The big things to consider when we are drawing, or considering drawing, are:

  Stack sizes

  The smaller the effective stacks are, the more willing we should be to commit or fold on the flop. The larger the effective stacks are, the more flexibility we have, and thus we usually veer away from risking our entire stack on draw equity. This is why draws, like a NFD, in a 3-bet pot are usually happily committed on the flop.