The Battle for Pakistan

by Shuja Nawaz

  17 Interview with Amb. Richard Olson, January 2017.

  18 ‘Ten Years since 9/11: Our Collective Experience’. (Pakistan’s Perspective.) This document was presented by Gen. Kayani to mark the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the US mainland, just before the NATO Chiefs of Defense Staff meeting in Seville, Spain, 16–18 September 2011 (including Adm. Mullen, who bid farewell to the group on the 18th) and later shared by Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Kayani, with Gen. James Mattis of CENTCOM, United States, in Rawalpindi, on 24 September 2011. Gen. Kayani confirmed some of these details in a telephone call to me, 1 November 2018. In his recollection, the paper was delivered 11 September, when NATO commemorated the tenth anniversary of 9/11.

  19 Senior Pakistani official.

  20 ‘US CENTCOM Chief in Pakistan: Meets Kayani’, Express Tribune, 24 September 2011.

  21 Elisabeth Bumiller and Jane Perlez, ‘Pakistan’s Spy Agency Is Tied to Attack on U.S. Embassy’, New York Times, 22 September 2011.

  22 ‘Kayani Terms Mullen’s Haqqani Accusations as “Baseless”’, Express Tribune, Pakistan, 23 September 2011.

  23 Op. cit. ‘Ten Years since 9/11: Our Collective Experience’. (Pakistan’s Perspective.) Also dubbed Kayani 4.0, this is the source document for most of his views in this section.

  1 Emile Simpson, War from the Ground Up: Twenty-First Century Combat as Politics (Oxford University Press, New York, 2015).

  2 The MOU was signed by Amb. Richard Hoagland, Charge d’Affaires, a.i. of the US embassy in Islamabad and Rear Admiral Farrokh Ahmad, Additional Secretary of the Ministry of Defence.

  3 This agreement was signed by Maj. Gen. Dennis K. Jackson, US Army, Director of Logistics for the US DoD, on 4 February 2002, and Rear Admiral Irfan Ahmed, Additional Secretary of the Ministry of Defence of Pakistan, on 9 February 2002, and became effective on 9 February.

  4 Telephone conversation, 17 March 2018, from Dubai.

  5 This is based on a review of papers produced at the National Defence College by the author and relating the later trajectory of promotions of officers who produced creative papers.

  6 Op. cit. Musharraf, In the Line of Fire, p. 65.

  7 Interview at GHQ 2010, following my meeting with Gen. Kayani. Iqbal was an officer from the 9 Frontier Force regiment, commissioned into the army in 1979. He had commanded the 34 FF Regiment. As mentioned earlier in this book, he was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment, effectively fourteen years, in 2019 in a secret military trial, allegedly for espionage during the period when he was at GHQ.

  8 In the more distant past, especially up to the 1970s, the FC attracted eager officers who took pride in the adventure of serving in the rough borderlands. Their civilian counterparts were also the best and the brightest civil servants. All this changed in the martial law days of Zia-ul-Haq.

  9 Tariq Khan was a Sword of Honour winner from the PMA at Kakul, and joined his father’s 4 Cavalry regiment, in which my cousin Asmat Nawaz Janjua fought in 1965. He later commanded I Corps in Mangla.

  10 He was a graduate of the military academy in the class of 1976 (54th Long Course), and joined his famous brother Shabbir Sharif ’s 6 Frontier Force regiment (Piffers). His brother had won a posthumous Nishan-e-Haider, the highest valour award of the Pakistan Army, in the 1971 war against India. Raheel Sharif attended a company commanders’ course in Germany and served a one-year attachment with the German Army after that, becoming fluent in German in the process. A graduate of the Staff College of Canada and the Royal College of Defence Studies of the United Kingdom, he had also been an instructor at the PMA and the School of Infantry and Tactics. His earlier stint at PMA Kakul began when Maj. Sharif returned from his course in Germany and joined as an adjutant to my late brother, then Maj. Gen. Asif Nawaz, commandant at that time. He later was a Chief of Staff at a Corps headquarters and then commanded 11 Division.

  11 Maj. Gen. Raheel Sharif, Commandant, PMA Kakul, showed me around the academy on 10 April 2010 and explained the changes in training.

  12 https://www.pakistanarmy.gov.pk/AWPReview/TextContentb1b1.html

  13 When I spent time at the school in Quetta, it was led by Maj. Gen. Agha Umer Farooq, who later became president of the National Defence University and had coined the concept of ‘No Peace, No War’ to reflect the hybridization of the threat environment facing Pakistan. Commissioned in April 1977 into 12 Baloch regiment, Farooq was a graduate of the war course in 1988 in Pakistan and then the US Army War College at Carlisle, PA, in 2003 as a brigadier. His deputy, Brig. Tariq Javed, had been approved for promotion to major general. Javed was a graduate of the German Company Commanders’ course that later Army Chief Raheel Sharif had also attended.

  14 Some US students were horrified to learn that NCOs on the training staff were helping some officers with materials from previous courses. The culture was such that it allowed such behaviour and relied on subsequent sifting by promotion boards to separate the truly bright from the less capable officers.

  15 He was a Sword of Honour winner at the PMA in Kakul and belonged to a well-known Janjua Rajput family of Maira Matore, not far from Kahuta and Rawalpindi, which produced many generals.

  16 Written communication from Lt. Gen. (retd) Asif Yasin Malik.

  17 Background information on specific cases, provided by serving military officers.

  18 Nasir Iqbal, ‘Legal Experts Reject PPO’, Dawn, 25 January 2014.

  19 Global Legal Monitor, US Library of Congress, ‘Pakistan: National Assembly Extends Ordinance on Protection of Pakistan’, 11 February 2014, http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/pakistan-national-assembly-extends-ordinance-on-protection-of-pakistan/

  1 The ‘no peace, no war’ formulation has been used by Lt. Gen. Agha Umer Farooq, among others.

  2 Pakistan Army Doctrine 2011—Comprehensive Response, Pakistan Army General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, 2012. Distributed widely inside military and retired military circles in Pakistan from where it made its way to the West.

  3 The Report of the Hamoodur Rehman Commission of Inquiry into the 1971 war (as declassified by the Government of Pakistan), Vanguard, Lahore, 2001.

  4 Author’s estimates derived from International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2011 (London: IISS, 2011) and by Anthony H. Cordesman, The Military Balance in Asia: 1990-2011—A Quantitative Analysis (Washington DC: CSIS, 16 May 2011).

  5 Ibid. These numbers are hard to pin down given the inclusion of aging aircraft on both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border.

  6 Victor Mallet, ‘India’s Slow March’, Financial Times, 16–17 February 2013.

  7 Mirza Aslam Beg, ‘Devising a Robust Defence Policy’, Nation, Lahore, 7 October 2012.

  8 Interview with a former Musharraf Corps Commander and a former defence secretary.

  9 Ibid.

  10 ISPR Directorate, 1 January 2010.

  11 Conversation with me, June 2012.

  12 Op. cit. Pakistan Army Doctrine, p. 11.

  13 Feroz Hassan Khan, Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistan Bomb (Stanford, CA: Stanford Security Studies, 2012), pp. 350–53.

  14 Ibid., p. 380.

  15 Tariq Osman Hyder, ‘Concerns over Pakistan’s Nuclear Program: Perceptions and Reality’, Policy Perspectives 9, no. 2 (Islamabad: Institute of Policy Studies, 2012).

  1 NASA issued a photograph of lights during the night of Diwali in 2012 that illustrates this point. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/79682/south-asian-night-lights

  2 Nations Online, ‘Megacities of the World’, http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/bigcities.htm

  3 Devjyot Ghoshal, ‘India’s Vital Monsoon Rains Are Changing—and Not for the Better’, Quartz India, 10 August 2014, http://qz.com/246563/indias-vital-monsoon-rains-are-changing-and-not-for-the-better/

  4 Purdue University, ‘Purdue Study Projects Weakened Monsoon Season in South Asia’, 26 February 2009, http://www.purdue.edu/uns/x/2009a/090226DiffenbaughMonsoon.html

  5 World Bank, Development Policy Revi
ew (Washington DC: World Bank, 2002).

  6 Ishrat Husain, ‘Economic Reforms in Pakistan: One Step Forward, Two Steps Backwards’, Quaid-i-Azam Lecture at the Annual Conference of Pakistan Society for Development Economics, 15 November 2012.

  7 Arvind Subramanian, ‘Arvind Subramanian: What Is India’s Real Growth Potential?’ Business Standard, 20 January 2013, http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/arvind-subramanian-what-is-india-s-real-growth-potential-112052300014_1.html

  8 Shuja Nawaz and Mohan Guruswamy, India and Pakistan: The Opportunity Cost of Conflict (Atlantic Council, Washington DC, 2014).

  9 ‘The Rise of Asia’s Middle Class’, Special Chapter in Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2010, http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/27726/ki2010-special-chapter.pdf

  10 Notable among these were Secretary James Mattis and NSA H.R. McMaster, both departed from the administration.

  11 Bharat Karnad, ‘Rethinking Indian Policies towards Pakistan’, Security Wise, a blog by Bharat Karnad, 2 May 2012, https://bharatkarnad.com/2012/05/02/rethinking-indian-policies-towards-pakistan-2/ and Bharat Karnad, ‘Rethinking Pakistan’, Asian Age, 31 March 2011, http://archive.asianage.com/columnists/rethinking-pakistan-898

  12 Aaron Phillip Waddell, ‘Cooperation and Integration among Australia’s National Security Community’, Studies in Intelligence, 59, no. 3, extracts (September 2015), https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-59-no-3/pdfs/Cooperation-and-Integration-Among-Australias-NSC.pdf

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