85: Adapted from Taken, dir. Pierre Morel (EuropaCorp, 2008).
86: Adapted from a Creative Commons image. Sjlegg, “Graph of the amplitude of an oscillator against its frequency, showing the significance of the resonant frequency,” Wikimedia Commons, April 15, 2009, https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/A-level_Physics_(Advancing_Physics)/Resonance#/media/File:Resonant_frequency_amplitude.svg.
87: Adapted from an illustration by Christoph Janz, “Three more ways to build a $100 million business,” The Angel VC (blog), November 4, 2014, https://christophjanz.blogspot.com/2014/11/three-more-ways-to-build-100-million.html.
88: Cartoon by Dave Whamond.
89: Based on data from the Camera & Imaging Products Association, as cited by Stephan Dolezalek and Josh Freed, “An American Kodak Moment,” Third Way, April 17, 2014, www.thirdway.org/report/an-american-kodak-moment.
90: Based on data from the Camera & Imaging Products Association and Gartner, as cited by Michael Zhang, “This Latest Camera Sales Chart Shows the Compact Camera Near Death,” PetaPixel, March 3, 2017, https://petapixel.com/2017/03/03/latest-camera-sales-chart-reveals-death-compact-camera.
91: Geoffrey A. Moore, Crossing the Chasm, 3rd ed. (New York: HarperBusiness, 2014).
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
Index
The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.
A&P, 70
absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, 167
A/B testing, 136
Accidental Empires (Cringley), 253
accountability, 275
acne, 169–71
activation energy, 112–13
actor-observer bias (self-serving bias), 21, 272
Adams, John, 222
adaptability, 121, 129
ad hominem, 226
adverse selection, 46–47
advertising, 103–4, 120, 262
advisers, 44, 45, 296
Affordable Care Act (ACA), 46, 47
Afghanistan, 54, 243
agent, 44–45
aggregation, 205
aggression, obnoxious, 264
agreeableness, 250
AIDS, 233
Airbnb, 276, 288, 292
air pollution, 41
air travel, 53–54
Aldi, 70
Alexander, Christopher, 92
algorithms, 94, 97
Allen, David, 76
all-nighter, 83
alpha, 161, 182
al-Qaeda, 52, 54
alternative hypothesis, 163, 164, 166, 167
altruism, effective, 80
alumni, 119
Amazon, 61, 70, 95–96, 283, 290, 300
American Revolution, 221–22, 239, 240
American Statistical Association, 168
Amway, 217
analysis paralysis, 60–62, 93
anchoring, 14–15, 30, 199
anecdotal evidence, 133, 139, 146
antibiotics, 37, 47–49
Antifragile (Taleb), 2, 105
antifragility, 2–3, 31–33
anti-patterns, 93
AOL, 106
Apollo 13, 4
appeasement, 237
Apple, 103, 104, 231, 241, 258, 289–91, 305, 309
iPad, 290
iPod, 296–97
Newton, 290
approval ratings, 152–54, 158
arbitrage, 282–83
Archilochus, 254
Archimedes, 78
arguing from first principles, 4–7, 31, 207
Ariely, Dan, 14, 222–23
arithmetic, ix–x, 23–24, 30, 178
arms races, 209–12, 214
Ashley Madison, 229
Associated Press (AP), 306
asymmetric information, 45–47
atomic bomb, see nuclear weapons
Atwood, Jeff, 253
authority, 219–20, 226
automation, 95, 310
availability bias, 15–18, 30, 33, 300
average, 146, 187
Avon, 217
Aztecs, 243–44
babies, 198, 279
sleep and, 131–32
babysitters, 222
backfire effect, 26
back-of-the-envelope calculation, 299
bacteria, 47–49, 295
bait and switch, 228, 229
bandwagon effect, 202
barriers to entry and barriers to exit, 305
baseball, 83, 145–46, 289
base rate, 157, 159, 160
base rate fallacy, 157, 158, 170
BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement), 77
Battle of Heraclea, 239
Battle of Tsushima, 241
Bayes’ theorem and Bayesian statistics, 157–60
beachhead, 300–301
Beatles, 105
Beautiful Mind, A, 213
beliefs, 103, 107
bell curve (normal distribution), 150–52, 153, 163–66, 191
Bell Labs, 89
benefit of the doubt, 20
benefits:
cost-benefit analysis, 177–86, 189, 194
eliminating, 224
net, 181–82, 184
Berlin, Isaiah, 254
Bernoulli distribution, 152
best practices, 92
beta, 162, 182
Better Angels of Our Nature, The (Pinker), 144
Bezos, Jeff, 61–62, 286–87
bias, 3, 139
availability, 15–18, 30, 33, 300
confirmation, 26–28, 33, 103, 159
disconfirmation, 27
groupthink, 201–3
hidden, 139–43
hindsight, 271–72
nonresponse, 140, 142, 143
observer-expectancy, 136, 139
optimistic probability, 33
present, 85, 87, 93, 113
publication, 170, 173
response, 142, 143
selection, 139–40, 143, 170
self-serving, 21, 272
survivorship, 140–43, 170, 272
Big Short, The (Lewis), 289
bike-shedding, 75, 93
Bird, Larry, 246
birth lottery, 21–22, 69
black-and-white thinking, 126–28, 168, 272
black boxes, 94–95
Black Flags rebellion, 276
blackouts, electric, 120
black swan events, 190–91, 193
Blank, Steve, 294
bleeding them dry, 239
blinded experiments, 136
Blockbuster, 106
blowback, 54
Boaty McBoatface, RSS, 35
body mass index (BMI), 137
body temperature, 146–50
boiling frog, 55, 56, 58, 60
bonds, 180, 184
Bonne, Rose, 58
Boot, Max, 239
boots on the ground, 279
Boston Common, 36–38, 42
Boyd, John, 294
Bradley, Bill, 248
brainstorming, 201–3
Brandeis, Louis, 307
breast cancer, 156–57, 160–61
Breathalyzer tests, 157–58, 160
Brexit, 206, 305
bright spots, 300
bring in reinforcements, 279
British Medical Journal (BMJ), 136–37
broken windows theory, 235–36
Broderick, Matthew, 230
Brody, William, 290–91
Brookings Institution, 306
brute force solution, 93, 97
Bryson, Bill, 50
budget, 38, 74–75, 81, 95, 113
national, 75–76
Buffett, Warren, viii, 69, 286, 302, 317, 318
burning bridges, 243
burnout, 82, 83
Burns, Robert, 49
burn the boats, 244
Bush, George H. W., 104
business case, 207
butterfly effect, 121, 122, 125, 201
Butterfly Effect, The, 121
Butterworth, Brian, x
buyout, leveraged, 79
bystander effect, 259
cable television, 69, 100, 106
Caesar, Julius, 244
calculus, 291
call your bluff, 238
cameras, 302–3, 308–10
campaign finance reform, 110
Campbell, Donald T., 49–50
Campbell’s law, 49–50
cancer:
breast, 156–57, 160–61
clusters of, 145
lung, 133–34, 137
cap-and-trade systems, 42–43
capital, cost of, 76, 77, 179, 182
careers, 300–301
decisions about, 5–6, 57, 175–77, 201, 207, 296
design patterns and, 93
entry barriers and, 305
licensing and, 306–7
Carfax, 46
Cargill, Tom, 89
cargo cults, 315–16
caring personally, 263–64
car market, 46–47
Carrey, Jim, 229
carrot-and-stick model, 232
cascading failures, 120, 192
casinos, 220, 226
cast a wide net, 122
catalyst, 112–13, 115, 119
Catherine II, Empress, 228
causal loop diagrams, 192–93
causation, correlation and, 134, 135
cellphones, 116–17
center of gravity, 112
central limit theorem, 152–53, 163
central tendency, 147
chain reaction, viii, 114, 120
Challenger, 31–33
challenging directly, 263–64
change, 100–101, 112–13, 129
resistance to, 110–11
chaos, 124
balance between order and, 128
chaos theory, 121
chaotic systems, 120–21, 124, 125
Chatelier’s principle, 193–94
cheating, 50
Chekhov, Anton, 124
chess, 242
chilling effect, 52–54
China, 231, 276
choice, 62
paradox of, 62–63
Christensen, Clayton, 296, 297, 310
Cialdini, Robert, 215–17, 219–21
circle of competence, 317–18
climate change, 42, 55, 56, 104, 105, 183, 192
Clinton, Hillary, 70, 97
clustering illusion, 144–45
CNN, 220
Coase, Ronald, 42
Coase theorem, 42–43
cobra effect, 50–52
Coca-Cola, 305
cognitive dissonance, 27–29, 216
coin flips, 143–44, 154–55, 158–59
Cold War, 209, 235
collateral damage, 53–54, 231
collective intelligence, 205
collectivist versus individualist, in organizational culture, 274
college, 209–10
choice of, 58–60
rankings of, 50, 137
Collins, Jim, 109, 254
commandos, in organizations and projects, 253–54
commitment, 87–88
escalation of, 91
influence model of, 216, 220
commodities, 283
commons, 36–38, 43
Common Sense (Paine), 221–22
communication, high-context and low-context, 273–74
competence, circle of, 317–18
competition:
and crossing the chasm, 312
moats and, 302–5
perfect, 283
regulatory capture and, 305
sustainable competitive advantage, 283, 285
complexity, complex systems, 185–86, 192, 194
diagrams and, 192–93
simulations and, 192–94
compound interest, 69, 85
Concorde fallacy, 91
conditional probability, 156
Confederate leaders, 113
confidence intervals, 154–56, 159
confidence level, 154, 155, 161
confirmation bias, 26–28, 33, 103, 159
conflict, 209, 226
arms races, 209–12, 214
game theory and, see game theory
confounding factor, 134–35, 139
conjunction fallacy, 9–10
conscientiousness, 250
consensus, 202
consensus-contrarian matrix, 285–86, 290
consequence-conviction matrix, 265–66
consequences, 35
unintended, 35–36, 53–55, 57, 64–65, 192, 232
containment, 233, 237
contests, 35–36
context-switching, 71, 74
continental drift, 24–25, 289
contrarian-consensus matrix, 285–86, 290
Contrarian’s Guide to Leadership, The (Sample), 28
control group, 136
conventional wisdom, 5
convergent thinking, 203
conviction-consequence matrix, 265–66
cooperation, 215, 226
tit-for-tat, 214–15
correlations, 134, 135, 139
corruption, 307
Cortés, Hernán, 243–44
cost-benefit analysis, 177–86, 189, 194
Costco, 70
cost of capital, 76, 77, 179, 182
cost of doing business, 232
counterfactual thinking, 201, 272, 309–10
cramming, 83, 262
credible intervals, 159
crime, 16, 161, 231, 232
broken windows theory and, 235–36
Cringley, Robert X., 253
critical mass, viii–x, 114–15, 117, 119, 120, 129, 194, 308
critical thinking, 201
crossing the chasm, 311–12
crossing the Rubicon, 244
crowdsourcing, 203–6, 286
culture, 113, 273
organizational, 107–8, 113, 273–80, 293
customers, 300
development of, 294
personas for, 300
types of, 298–300
winner-take-most markets and, 308
Cutco, 217
Danziger, Shai, 63
dark patterns, 226–29
Potemkin villages, 228–29
Darley, John, 259
Darwin, Charles, 100, 101, 291
data, 130–31, 143, 146, 301
binary, 152
dredging of, 169–70
in graphs, see graphs
mean in, 146, 149, 151
meta-analysis of, 172–73
outliers in, 148
streaks and clusters in, 144
variance in, 149
see also experiments; statistics
dating, 8–10, 95
daycare center, 222–23
deadlines, 89
death, causes of, 17
death by a thousand cuts, 38
debate, 225
decisions, 1–2, 11, 31, 127, 129, 131–33, 175, 209
business case and, 207
choices and, 62–63
cost-benefit analysis in, 177–86, 189, 194
decision fatigue and, 63–64
decision tree in, 186–90, 194, 215
Eisenhower Decision Matrix, 72–74, 89, 124, 125
irreversible, 61–62, 223–24
opportunity cost and, 76–77, 80, 83, 179, 182, 188, 305
past, analyzing, 201, 271–72
pro-con list in, 175–78, 185, 189
reversible, 61–62
sequences of, 144
small, tyranny of, 38, 55
utilitarianism and, 189–90
Declaration of Independence, 222
deep work, 72, 76, 88, 278
default effect, 87–88
Defense, U.S. Department of, 267–68
<
br /> delayed gratification, 87
deleveraging, 78–79
deliberate practice, 260–62, 264, 266
Democratic National Committee, 97
de-risking, 6–7, 10, 294
design debt, 56–57
design patterns, 92–93, 97, 226, 317
Detecting Lies and Deceit (Vrij), 13–14
deterrence, 231–32, 237, 238
Detroit, Mich., 41
Devil’s advocate position, 28–30, 202
diagrams, 192–93
dice, 170
Dick, Philip K., 201
diet, 1, 87, 102, 103, 130
Difficult Conversations (Stone, Patton, and Heen), 19
Diffusion of Innovation (Rogers), 116
diffusion of responsibility, 259
digital photography, 308–10
Dilbert, 140
diminishing returns, 81–83
diminishing utility, 81–82
dinosaurs, 103
diplomacy, 231
directly responsible individual (DRI), 258–59
disclosure law, 45
disconfirmation bias, 27
discounted cash flow, 85
discounting, hyperbolic, 87
discounting the future, 85–87
discount rate, 85–87, 180–82, 184, 185
discoveries, multiple, 291–92
Disney World, 96–97
dispersion, 147
disruptive innovations, 308, 310–11
distribution, see probability distributions
distributive justice versus procedural justice, 224–25
divergent thinking, 203
diversity debt, 57
diversity of opinion, 205, 206, 255
divide and conquer, 96
divorce, 231, 305
Dollar Shave Club, 240
domino effect, 234–35, 237
done, calling something, 89–90
Donne, John, 209
don’t bring a knife to a gunfight, 241
drinking, 217, 218
drunk drivers, 157–58
drugs, 236
DuckDuckGo, 18, 32, 68, 258, 278
Dubner, Stephen, 44–45
Dunbar, Robin, 278
Dunbar’s number, 278
Dunning, David, 269
Dunning-Kruger effect, 268–70, 317
Dweck, Carol, 266, 267
early adopters, 116–17, 289, 290, 311–12
early majority, 116–17, 312
Eastman Kodak Company, 302–3, 308–10, 312
eBay, 119, 281, 282, 290
echo chambers, 18, 120
Ecker, Ullrich, 13
economies of scale, 95
Economist, 14–15
economy, 122, 125
inflation in, 179–80, 182–83
financial crisis of 2007/2008, 79, 120, 192, 271, 288
recessions in, 121–22
Edison, Thomas, 289, 292
education and schools, 224–25, 241, 296
expectations and, 267–68
mindsets and, 267
school ranking, 137
school start times, 110, 111, 130
selection bias and, 140
textbooks in, 262
see also college
effective altruism, 80
egalitarian versus hierarchical, in organizational culture, 274
Super Thinking Page 37
