80/20 arrangements, 80–81, 83
Einstein, Albert, 8, 11
Eisenhower, Dwight, 72
Eisenhower Decision Matrix, 72–74, 89, 124, 125
elections, 206, 218, 233, 241, 271, 293, 299
Ellsberg, Michael, 220
email spam, 161, 192–93, 234
Emanuel, Rahm, 291
emotion, appeal to, 225, 226
emotional quotient (EQ), 250–52
empathy, 19, 21, 23
ruinous, 264
employee engagement survey, 140, 142
endgame, 242, 244
endorsements, 112, 220, 229
endpoints, 137
ends justify the means, 229
energy:
activation, 112–13
potential, 111–12
engineering, 247
Enron, 228
entrepreneurs, 301
cargo cult, 316
entropy, 122–24
entry, barriers to, 305
environmental issues, 38
climate change, 42, 55, 56, 104, 105, 183, 192
EpiPen, 283
EQ (emotional quotient), 250–52
equilibrium, 193
Ericsson, K. Anders, 260, 261
error bars, 155, 156
escalation of commitment, 91
escape hatch, 244
Ethernet, 118
Etsy, 119
European Union, 59
evolution, 99–100, 133
execution, 292
exercise, 85, 87, 88, 102, 111, 113, 130
exit:
barriers to, 305
strategy for, 242–43
expectations, 267–68
experimenter bias (observer-expectancy bias), 136, 139
experiments, 135–36, 161–63, 173
A/B testing, 136
alpha in, 161, 182
beta in, 162, 182
blinded, 136
endpoints in, 137
power of, 162
randomized controlled, 136
replication of, 168–72
sample size in, 143, 160, 162, 163, 165–68, 172, 182
thought, 199–201
see also polls and surveys; research
expected value, 186–89
expertise, 109, 115, 269
deliberate practice and, 260–62, 264, 266
externalities, 41–42, 47
negative, 41–43, 47
extroverts, 249–50
Facebook, 18, 36, 94, 119, 219, 233, 247, 305, 308
failure, 296
cascading, 120, 192
focus on, 268–69
government, 47, 48
market, 47–49
political, 47
fairness, 224
fair share versus fair play, 224–25
fake news, 233
fallacies:
base rate, 157, 158, 170
black-and-white, 126–28, 168, 272
conjunction, 9–10
gambler’s, 144, 145
inverse, 156–57
Texas sharpshooter, 136
false negative, 160–63, 165–67
false positive, 160–62, 164–66, 168–70, 172
false sense of security, 44
false urgency, 74
fast (low-concentration) thinking, 30, 70–71
fat-tailed distributions, 191
favors, 215
fax machine, 106, 107, 119
FBI, 97
fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), 225
fear of missing out (FOMO), 219
feedback, 262–64, 266, 294, 316
feedback loops, 192, 294
Ferriss, Tim, 220
Feynman, Richard, 32–33, 315–16
filter bubble, 17–18
financial advisers, 44, 45
financial crisis of 2007/2008, 79, 120, 192, 271, 288
fines and sanctions, 232
First, do no harm, 59
first impressions, 14, 146
first-mover advantage or disadvantage, 292
first principles, arguing from, 4–7, 31, 207
FiveThirtyEight, 172
5 Whys, 32, 33
fixed mindset, 266–67, 272
flow, 192
flu vaccine, 133–35
flypaper theory, 234
flywheel, 108–10, 112, 283
Food and Drug Administration, U.S., 283
football, 226, 243
foot-in-the-door technique, 216
Forbes, 220
forcing function, 113, 244
forecasts, see predictions and forecasts
Fortune 100 companies, 122
Foundation, 5
401(k) programs, 87–88
foxes versus hedgehogs, 254–55
frame of reference, 11, 18, 90, 250
framing, 11–13, 30, 221, 222, 224, 226
Franklin, Benjamin, 92
fraud, 228
Freakonomics (Levitt and Dubner), 44–45
free rider problem, 39–40, 43, 49
frequentist statistics, 158–60
Frisch, Otto, 114–15, 120
frog, boiling, 55, 56, 58, 60
FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), 225
fundamental attribution error, 20–21, 23
future, 289
discounting of, 85–87
predicting, see predictions and forecasts
uncertainty in, 2, 132, 173, 180, 182, 185
Gallup, Inc., 16
Galton, Francis, 203
gambler’s fallacy, 144, 145
games, iterated, 214
game theory, 212–14, 230, 234, 238, 244
prisoner’s dilemma, 212–14, 226, 234–35, 244
garbage, 40–41
garbage in, garbage out, 185
Gates, Bill, 69, 128, 141
gateway drug theory, 236
Gelman, Andrew, 173
generalists, 252–53
generals always fight the last war, 240
genes, 156–57, 191, 249–50
George III, King, 221
Germany, 70, 145, 229, 237–39
germ theory, 26, 289
get on the same page, 225
get them up to speed, 279
getting more bang for your buck, 79
Getting Things Done (Allen), 76
Gibson, William, 289
Gilbert, Daniel, 27
Ginóbili, Manu, 247
give-and-take, 128
Gladwell, Malcolm, 261
GlaxoSmithKline, 63, 81, 257
globalization, 310
global optimum, 195–96
goals, 69, 87–89, 122, 242, 244
Gödel, Escher, Bach (Hofstadter), 89
Goldblum, Jeff, 121
golem effect, 267
Gondwanian bridges, 25
good cop, bad cop, 232
good enough, 90
Goodhart, Charles, 49
Goodhart’s law, 49, 51, 52, 54
Good Judgment Project, 206
Good to Great (Collins), 109, 254
Google, 18, 53, 104, 231, 305
Gordon, Peter, x
Gosplan, 49
government, federal:
budget of, 75–76
failure in, 47, 48
regulatory action by, 183–84, 231–32
graffiti, 40
Graham, Paul, 71, 277
grass-is-greener mentality, 176–77, 258
graphs, 146–48
bell curves in, 150–52, 153, 163–66, 191
error bars in, 155, 156
histograms, 147–48, 150
gravity, center of, 112
gray thinking, 28
group membership, 127
groupthink, 201–3
Grove, Andy, 308
growth mindset, 266–67
Guardian, x
guerrilla marketing, 240
guerrilla warfare, 239, 241–42
gun control, 235, 237
Gurley, Bil
l, 286
gut feeling, 30
hackers, 97
Hail Mary pass, 243–44
hammer, Maslow’s, xi, 177, 255, 297, 317
Hanlon’s razor, 20
harassment, 53
Harvard Business Review, 297
Hatchimals, 281, 284
hazard, 43–45, 47
head in the sand, 55
Health and Human Services, U.S. Department of, 48
healthcare, 41, 54–55
HealthCare.gov, 107
insurance, 42, 46, 47, 190
spending on, 80, 81
health information, 53
heart rhythms, 139
heat death of the universe, 124
heat-seeking missiles, 301
hedgehogs versus foxes, 254–55
Heen, Sheila, 19
Heifer International, 109
height, 150–51, 156, 191–92
Heilbroner, Robert, 49
helplessness, learned, 22–23
Heraclea, Battle of, 239
herd immunity, 39–40, 46
heroin, 36
heuristic, 94
Hick, William, 62
Hick’s law, 62, 63
hierarchical versus egalitarian, in organizational culture, 274
hierarchy of needs, 270–71
high-context communication, 273–74
high-leverage activities, 79–81, 83, 107, 113
hindsight bias, 271–72
hiring, 258
histogram, 147–48, 150
Hitler, Adolf, 237
HIV, 233
Hoffman, Reid, 7
Hofstadter, Douglas, 89
Hofstadter’s law, 89
hold the line, 236
hollow victory, 239
home:
being locked into housing situation, 305
insurance on, 156
new-construction, 228
purchase of, 79, 178
repairs on, 56, 185–89
security services for, 229
Homebrew Computer Club, 289
Homeland Security, U.S. Department of, 97
homelessness, 22
homeostasis, 110–12, 194
honeypot, 234
hornet’s nest, 51–52
horse racing, 91, 286
hospital rankings, 50
hotels, 217, 228
house, see home
Housing First, 22
Houston, Tex., 192
Hyman, Ray, 62
hydra effect, 51, 52
hyperbolic discounting, 87
hypothesis, 136, 161
alternative, 163, 164, 166, 167
null, 163, 164
see also experiments
hysteresis, 194
IBM, 241
iCloud, 97
idea maze, 301
ignorance, veil of, 21
“I Know an Old Lady” (Bonne and Mills), 58
immigration, 15–16
immune system, 194
imposter syndrome, 268–72
incentives, 55
perverse, 50–51, 54
income, U.S. household, 148–49, 191
independence, 205
India, 50–51, 235
individualist versus collectivist, in organizational culture, 274
inertia, 102–3, 105–8, 110, 112, 113, 119, 120, 129, 290, 296
infantry, in organizations and projects, 253
inflation, 179–80, 182–83
inflection point, 115
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (Cialdini), 215
influence models, 215, 220, 221, 226, 229, 230, 289
authority, 219–20, 226
commitment, 216, 220
liking, 216–17, 220
reciprocity, 215–16, 220, 222, 229, 289
scarcity, 219, 220
social proof, 217–20, 229
information asymmetry, 45–47
information overload, 60, 146
Ingham, Harrington, 196
in-group favoritism, 127, 217
Inkster, James A., 91
innovations, 302
disruptive, 308, 310–11
innovators, in technology adoption life cycle, 116–17, 289, 311
Innovator’s Dilemma, The (Christensen), 310
insincerity, manipulative, 264
Instagram, 220, 247, 291, 310
instant gratification, 87
institutional knowledge, 257
insurance, 43, 46, 191
health, 42, 46, 47, 190
key person, 305
Intel, 308, 310
intelligence quotient (IQ), 138, 250–52
interest, compound, 69, 85
interest rates, 85, 182–83
internalizing, 41–42
internet, 290
messaging services, 119
introverts, 249–50
intuition, 30–31, 33, 132
invention, simultaneous, 291–92
inverse fallacy, 156–57
inverse thinking, 1–2, 291
investments, investors, 180–84, 192, 272, 288
cargo cult, 316
Invisible Armies (Boot), 239
iPad, 290
iPod, 296–97
IQ (intelligence quotient), 138, 250–52
Iraq, 196, 234, 243, 276
irreversible decisions, 61–62, 223–24
Iverson, Allen, 246
Jacobi, Carl, 1
James, LeBron, 246
Janz, Christoph, 298–99
Japan, 241
jelly beans, 169–71
Jobs, Steve, 64, 296–97
jobs to be done, 296, 299–300
John, Tommy, 83
Johnson, Magic, 246
jokes, 35–36
Jordan, Michael, 246
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 13, 17
Joy, Bill, 247
Joy’s law, 247, 248
judicial rulings, 63, 144
Jurassic Park, 121
justice, distributive versus procedural, 224–25
Justice, U.S. Department of, 97
just world hypothesis, 22
Kahneman, Daniel, 9, 30, 90
karoshi, 82
Kauffman Foundation, 122
keeping up with the Joneses, 210–11
key person insurance, 305
King, Martin Luther, Jr., 129, 225
KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid), 10
knowledge, institutional, 257
knowns:
known, 197
unknown, 198, 203
known unknowns, 197–98
Knox, Robert E., 91
Kodak, 302–3, 308–10, 312
Koenigswald, Gustav Heinrich Ralph von, 50
Kohl’s, 15
Kopelman, Josh, 301
Korea, 229, 231, 235, 238
Kristof, Nicholas, 254
Krokodil, 49
Kruger, Justin, 269
Kuhn, Thomas, 24
Kutcher, Ashton, 121
labor market, 283–84
laggards, 116–17
landlords, 178, 179, 182, 188
Laplace, Pierre-Simon, 132
large numbers, law of, 143–44
Latané, Bibb, 259
late majority, 116–17
lateral thinking, 201
law of diminishing returns, 81–83
law of diminishing utility, 81–82
law of inertia, 102–3, 105–8, 110, 112, 113, 119, 120, 129, 290, 296
law of large numbers, 143–44
law of small numbers, 143, 144
Lawson, Jerry, 289
lawsuits, 231
leadership, 248, 255, 260, 265, 271, 275, 276, 278–80
learned helplessness, 22–23
learning, 262, 269, 295
from past events, 271–72
learning curve, 269
Le Chatelier, Henri-Louis, 193
Le Chatelier’s principle, 193–94
left to their own d
evices, 275
Leibniz, Gottfried, 291
lemons into lemonade, 121
Lernaean Hydra, 51
Levav, Jonathan, 63
lever, 78
leverage, 78–80, 83, 115
high-leverage activities, 79–81, 83, 107, 113
leveraged buyout, 79
leveraging up, 78–79
Levitt, Steven, 44–45
Levitt, Theodore, 296
Lewis, Michael, 289
Lichtenstein, Sarah, 17
lightning, 145
liking, 216–17, 220
Lincoln, Abraham, 97
Lindy effect, 105, 106, 112
line in the sand, 238
LinkedIn, 7
littering, 41, 42
Lloyd, William, 37
loans, 180, 182–83
lobbyists, 216, 306
local optimum, 195–96
lock-in, 305
lock in your gains, 90
long-term negative scenarios, 60
loose versus tight, in organizational culture, 274
Lorenz, Edward, 121
loss, 91
loss aversion, 90–91
loss leader strategy, 236–37
lost at sea, 68
lottery, 85–86, 126, 145
low-context communication, 273–74
low-hanging fruit, 81
loyalists versus mercenaries, 276–77
luck, 128
making your own, 122
luck surface area, 122, 124, 128
Luft, Joseph, 196
LuLaRoe, 217
lung cancer, 133–34, 173
Lyautey, Hubert, 276
Lyft, ix, 288
Madoff, Bernie, 232
magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 291
magnets, 194
maker’s schedule versus manager’s schedule, 277–78
Making of Economic Society, The (Heilbroner), 49
mammograms, 160–61
management debt, 56
manager’s schedule versus maker’s schedule, 277–78
managing to the person, 255
Manhattan Project, 195
Man in the High Castle, The (Dick), 201
manipulative insincerity, 264
man-month, 279
Mansfield, Peter, 291
manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), 15
margin of error, 154
markets, 42–43, 46–47, 106
failure in, 47–49
labor, 283–84
market norms versus social norms, 222–24
market power, 283–85, 312
product/market fit, 292–96, 302
secondary, 281–82
winner-take-most, 308
marriage:
divorce, 231, 305
same-sex, 117, 118
Maslow, Abraham, 177, 270–71
Maslow’s hammer, xi, 177, 255, 297, 317
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, 270–71
mathematics, ix–x, 3, 4, 132, 178
Singapore math, 23–24
matrices, 2 × 2, 125–26
consensus-contrarian, 285–86, 290
consequence-conviction, 265–66
Eisenhower Decision Matrix, 72–74, 89, 124, 125
of knowns and unknowns, 197–98
payoff, 212–15, 238
radical candor, 263–64
scatter plot on top of, 126
McCain, John, 241
mean, 146, 149, 151
Super Thinking Page 38
