regression to, 146, 286
standard deviation from, 149, 150–51, 154
variance from, 149
measles, 39, 40
measurable target, 49–50
median, 147
Medicare, 54–55
meetings, 113
weekly one-on-one, 262–63
Megginson, Leon, 101
mental models, vii–xii, 2, 3, 31, 35, 65, 131, 289, 315–17
mentorship, 23, 260, 262, 264, 265
mercenaries versus loyalists, 276–77
Merck, 283
merry-go-round, 108
meta-analysis, 172–73
Metcalfe, Robert, 118
Metcalfe’s law, 118
#MeToo movement, 113
metrics, 137
proxy, 139
Michaels, 15
Microsoft, 241
mid-mortems, 92
Miklaszewski, Jim, 196
Milgram, Stanley, 219, 220
military, 141, 229, 279, 294, 300
milkshakes, 297
Miller, Reggie, 246
Mills, Alan, 58
Mindset: The New Psychology of Success (Dweck), 266
mindset, fixed, 266–67, 272
mindset, growth, 266–67
minimum viable product (MVP), 7–8, 81, 294
mirroring, 217
mission, 276
mission statement, 68
MIT, 53, 85
moats, 302–5, 307–8, 310, 312
mode, 147
Moltke, Helmuth von, 7
momentum, 107–10, 119, 129
Monday morning quarterbacking, 271
Moneyball (Lewis), 289
monopolies, 283, 285
Monte Carlo fallacy, 144
Monte Carlo simulation, 195
Moore, Geoffrey, 311
moral hazard, 43–45, 47
most respectful interpretation (MRI), 19–20
moths, 99–101
Mountain Dew, 35
moving target, 136
multiple discovery, 291–92
multiplication, ix, xi
multitasking, 70–72, 74, 76, 110
Munger, Charlie, viii, x–xi, 30, 286, 318
Murphy, Edward, 65
Murphy’s law, 64–65, 132
Musk, Elon, 5, 302
mutually assured destruction (MAD), 231
MVP (minimum viable product), 7–8, 81, 294
Mylan, 283
mythical man-month, 279
name-calling, 226
NASA, 4, 32, 33
Nash, John, 213
Nash equilibrium, 213–14, 226, 235
National Football League (NFL), 225–26
National Institutes of Health, 36
National Security Agency, 52
natural selection, 99–100, 102, 291, 295
nature versus nurture, 249–50
negative compounding, 85
negative externalities, 41–43, 47
negative returns, 82–83, 93
negotiations, 127–28
net benefit, 181–82, 184
Netflix, 69, 95, 203
net present value (NPV), 86, 181
network effects, 117–20, 308
neuroticism, 250
New Orleans, La., 41
Newport, Cal, 72
news headlines, 12–13, 221
newspapers, 106
Newsweek, 290
Newton, Isaac, 102, 291
New York Times, 27, 220, 254
Nielsen Holdings, 217
ninety-ninety rule, 89
Nintendo, 296
Nobel Prize, 32, 42, 220, 291, 306
nocebo effect, 137
nodes, 118, 119
No Fly List, 53–54
noise and signal, 311
nonresponse bias, 140, 142, 143
normal distribution (bell curve), 150–52, 153, 163–66, 191
North Korea, 229, 231, 238
north star, 68–70, 275
nothing in excess, 60
not ready for prime time, 242
“now what” questions, 291
NPR, 239
nuclear chain reaction, viii, 114, 120
nuclear industry, 305–6
nuclear option, 238
Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), 305–6
nuclear weapons, 114, 118, 195, 209, 230–31, 233, 238
nudging, 13–14
null hypothesis, 163, 164
numbers, 130, 146
large, law of, 143–44
small, law of, 143, 144
see also data; statistics
nurses, 284
Oakland Athletics, 289
Obama, Barack, 64, 241
objective versus subjective, in organizational culture, 274
obnoxious aggression, 264
observe, orient, decide, act (OODA), 294–95
observer effect, 52, 54
observer-expectancy bias, 136, 139
Ockham’s razor, 8–10
Odum, William E., 38
oil, 105–6
Olympics, 209, 246–48, 285
O’Neal, Shaquille, 246
one-hundred-year floods, 192
Onion, 211–12
On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection (Darwin), 100
OODA loop, 294–95
openness to experience, 250
Operation Ceasefire, 232
opinion, diversity of, 205, 206
opioids, 36
opportunity cost, 76–77, 80, 83, 179, 182, 188, 305
of capital, 77, 179, 182
optimistic probability bias, 33
optimization, premature, 7
optimums, local and global, 195–96
optionality, preserving, 58–59
Oracle, 231, 291, 299
order, 124
balance between chaos and, 128
organizations:
culture in, 107–8, 113, 273–80, 293
size and growth of, 278–79
teams in, see teams
ostrich with its head in the sand, 55
out-group bias, 127
outliers, 148
Outliers (Gladwell), 261
overfitting, 10–11
overwork, 82
Paine, Thomas, 221–22
pain relievers, 36, 137
Pampered Chef, 217
Pangea, 24–25
paradigm shift, 24, 289
paradox of choice, 62–63
parallel processing, 96
paranoia, 308, 309, 311
Pareto, Vilfredo, 80
Pareto principle, 80–81
Pariser, Eli, 17
Parkinson, Cyril, 74–75, 89
Parkinson’s law, 89
Parkinson’s Law (Parkinson), 74–75
Parkinson’s law of triviality, 74, 89
passwords, 94, 97
past, 201, 271–72, 309–10
Pasteur, Louis, 26
path dependence, 57–59, 194
path of least resistance, 88
Patton, Bruce, 19
Pauling, Linus, 220
payoff matrix, 212–15, 238
PayPal, 72, 291, 296
peak, 105, 106, 112
peak oil, 105
Penny, Jonathon, 52
pent-up energy, 112
perfect, 89–90
as enemy of the good, 61, 89–90
personality traits, 249–50
person-month, 279
perspective, 11
persuasion, see influence models
perverse incentives, 50–51, 54
Peter, Laurence, 256
Peter principle, 256, 257
Peterson, Tom, 108–9
Petrified Forest National Park, 217–18
Pew Research, 53
p-hacking, 169, 172
phishing, 97
phones, 116–17, 290
photography, 302–3, 308–10
physics, x, 114, 194, 293
&nb
sp; quantum, 200–201
pick your battles, 238
Pinker, Steven, 144
Pirahã, x
Pitbull, 36
pivoting, 295–96, 298–301, 308, 311, 312
placebo, 137
placebo effect, 137
Planck, Max, 24
Playskool, 111
Podesta, John, 97
point of no return, 244
Polaris, 67–68
polarity, 125–26
police, in organizations and projects, 253–54
politics, 70, 104
ads and statements in, 225–26
elections, 206, 218, 233, 241, 271, 293, 299
failure and, 47
influence in, 216
predictions in, 206
polls and surveys, 142–43, 152–54, 160
approval ratings, 152–54, 158
employee engagement, 140, 142
postmortems, 32, 92
Potemkin village, 228–29
potential energy, 112
power, 162
power drills, 296
power law distribution, 80–81
power vacuum, 259–60
practice, deliberate, 260–62, 264, 266
precautionary principle, 59–60
Predictably Irrational (Ariely), 14, 222–23
predictions and forecasts, 132, 173
market for, 205–7
superforecasters and, 206–7
PredictIt, 206
premature optimization, 7
premises, see principles
pre-mortems, 92
present bias, 85, 87, 93, 113
preserving optionality, 58–59
pressure point, 112
prices, 188, 231, 299
arbitrage and, 282–83
bait and switch and, 228, 229
inflation in, 179–80, 182–83
loss leader strategy and, 236–37
manufacturer’s suggested retail, 15
monopolies and, 283
principal, 44–45
principal-agent problem, 44–45
principles (premises), 207
first, 4–7, 31, 207
prior, 159
prioritizing, 68
prisoners, 63, 232
prisoner’s dilemma, 212–14, 226, 234–35, 244
privacy, 55
probability, 132, 173, 194
bias, optimistic, 33
conditional, 156
probability distributions, 150, 151
bell curve (normal), 150–52, 153, 163–66, 191
Bernoulli, 152
central limit theorem and, 152–53, 163
fat-tailed, 191
power law, 80–81
sample, 152–53
pro-con lists, 175–78, 185, 189
procrastination, 83–85, 87, 89
product development, 294
product/market fit, 292–96, 302
promotions, 256, 275
proximate cause, 31, 117
proxy endpoint, 137
proxy metric, 139
psychology, 168
Psychology of Science, The (Maslow), 177
Ptolemy, Claudius, 8
publication bias, 170, 173
public goods, 39
punching above your weight, 242
p-values, 164, 165, 167–69, 172
Pygmalion effect, 267–68
Pyrrhus, King, 239
Qualcomm, 231
quantum physics, 200–201
quarantine, 234
questions:
now what, 291
what if, 122, 201
why, 32, 33
why now, 291
quick and dirty, 234
quid pro quo, 215
Rabois, Keith, 72, 265
Rachleff, Andy, 285–86, 292–93
radical candor, 263–64
Radical Candor (Scott), 263
radiology, 291
randomized controlled experiment, 136
randomness, 201
rats, 51
Rawls, John, 21
Regan, Ronald, 183
real estate agents, 44–45
recessions, 121–22
reciprocity, 215–16, 220, 222, 229, 289
recommendations, 217
red line, 238
referrals, 217
reframe the problem, 96–97
refugee asylum cases, 144
regression to the mean, 146, 286
regret, 87
regulations, 183–84, 231–32
regulatory capture, 305–7
reinventing the wheel, 92
relationships, 53, 55, 63, 91, 111, 124, 159, 271, 296, 298
being locked into, 305
dating, 8–10, 95
replication crisis, 168–72
Republican Party, 104
reputation, 215
research:
meta-analysis of, 172–73
publication bias and, 170, 173
systematic reviews of, 172, 173
see also experiments
resonance, 293–94
response bias, 142, 143
responsibility, diffusion of, 259
restaurants, 297
menus at, 14, 62
RetailMeNot, 281
retaliation, 238
returns:
diminishing, 81–83
negative, 82–83, 93
reversible decisions, 61–62
revolving door, 306
rewards, 275
Riccio, Jim, 306
rise to the occasion, 268
risk, 43, 46, 90, 288
cost-benefit analysis and, 180
de-risking, 6–7, 10, 294
moral hazard and, 43–45, 47
Road Ahead, The (Gates), 69
Roberts, Jason, 122
Roberts, John, 27
Rogers, Everett, 116
Rogers, William, 31
Rogers Commission Report, 31–33
roles, 256–58, 260, 271, 293
roly-poly toy, 111–12
root cause, 31–33, 234
roulette, 144
Rubicon River, 244
ruinous empathy, 264
Rumsfeld, Donald, 196–97, 247
Rumsfeld’s Rule, 247
Russia, 218, 241
Germany and, 70, 238–39
see also Soviet Union
Sacred Heart University (SHU), 217, 218
sacrifice play, 239
Sagan, Carl, 220
sales, 81, 216–17
Salesforce, 299
same-sex marriage, 117, 118
Sample, Steven, 28
sample distribution, 152–53
sample size, 143, 160, 162, 163, 165–68, 172
Sánchez, Ricardo, 234
sanctions and fines, 232
Sanders, Bernie, 70, 182, 293
Sayre, Wallace, 74
Sayre’s law, 74
scarcity, 219, 220
scatter plot, 126
scenario analysis (scenario planning), 198–99, 201–3, 207
schools, see education and schools
Schrödinger, Erwin, 200
Schrödinger’s cat, 200
Schultz, Howard, 296
Schwartz, Barry, 62–63
science, 133, 220
cargo cult, 315–16
Scientific Autobiography and other Papers (Planck), 24
scientific evidence, 139
scientific experiments, see experiments
scientific method, 101–2, 294
scorched-earth tactics, 243
Scott, Kim, 263
S curves, 117, 120
secondary markets, 281–82
second law of thermodynamics, 124
secrets, 288–90, 292
Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S., 228
security, false sense of, 44
security services, 229
selection, adverse, 46–47
selection bias, 139–40, 1
43, 170
self-control, 87
self-fulfilling prophecies, 267
self-serving bias, 21, 272
Seligman, Martin, 22
Semmelweis, Ignaz, 25–26
Semmelweis reflex, 26
Seneca, Marcus, 60
sensitivity analysis, 181–82, 185, 188
dynamic, 195
Sequoia Capital, 291
Sessions, Roger, 8
sexual predators, 113
Shakespeare, William, 105
Sheets Energy Strips, 36
Shermer, Michael, 133
Shirky, Clay, 104
Shirky principle, 104, 112
Short History of Nearly Everything, A (Bryson), 50
short-termism, 55–56, 58, 60, 68, 85
side effects, 137
signal and noise, 311
significance, 167
statistical, 164–67, 170
Silicon Valley, 288, 289
simulations, 193–95
simultaneous invention, 291–92
Singapore math, 23–24
Sir David Attenborough, RSS, 35
Skeptics Society, 133
sleep meditation app, 162–68
slippery slope argument, 235
slow (high-concentration) thinking, 30, 33, 70–71
small numbers, law of, 143, 144
smartphones, 117, 290, 309, 310
smoking, 41, 42, 133–34, 139, 173
Snap, 299
Snowden, Edward, 52, 53
social engineering, 97
social equality, 117
social media, 81, 94, 113, 217–19, 241
Facebook, 18, 36, 94, 119, 219, 233, 247, 305, 308
Instagram, 220, 247, 291, 310
YouTube, 220, 291
social networks, 117
Dunbar’s number and, 278
social norms versus market norms, 222–24
social proof, 217–20, 229
societal change, 100–101
software, 56, 57
simulations, 192–94
solitaire, 195
solution space, 97
Somalia, 243
sophomore slump, 145–46
South Korea, 229, 231, 238
Soviet Union:
Germany and, 70, 238–39
Gosplan in, 49
in Cold War, 209, 235
space exploration, 209
spacing effect, 262
Spain, 243–44
spam, 37, 161, 192–93, 234
specialists, 252–53
species, 120
spending, 38, 74–75
federal, 75–76
spillover effects, 41, 43
sports, 82–83
baseball, 83, 145–46, 289
football, 226, 243
Olympics, 209, 246–48, 285
Spotify, 299
spreadsheets, 179, 180, 182, 299
Srinivasan, Balaji, 301
standard deviation, 149, 150–51, 154
standard error, 154
standards, 93
Stanford Law School, x
Starbucks, 296
startup business idea, 6–7
statistics, 130–32, 146, 173, 289, 297
base rate in, 157, 159, 160
base rate fallacy in, 157, 158, 170
Bayesian, 157–60
confidence intervals in, 154–56, 159
confidence level in, 154, 155, 161
frequentist, 158–60
p-hacking in, 169, 172
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