Super Thinking
Page 40
p-values in, 164, 165, 167–69, 172
standard deviation in, 149, 150–51, 154
standard error in, 154
statistical significance, 164–67, 170
summary, 146, 147
see also data; experiments; probability distributions
Staubach, Roger, 243
Sternberg, Robert, 290
stock and flow diagrams, 192
Stone, Douglas, 19
stop the bleeding, 234
strategy, 107–8
exit, 242–43
loss leader, 236–37
pivoting and, 295–96, 298–301, 308, 311, 312
tactics versus, 256–57
strategy tax, 103–4, 112
Stiglitz, Joseph, 306
straw man, 225–26
Streisand, Barbra, 51
Streisand effect, 51, 52
Stroll, Cliff, 290
Structure of Scientific Revolutions, The (Kuhn), 24
subjective versus objective, in organizational culture, 274
suicide, 218
summary statistics, 146, 147
sunk-cost fallacy, 91
superforecasters, 206–7
Superforecasting (Tetlock), 206–7
super models, viii–xii
super thinking, viii–ix, 3, 316, 318
surface area, 122
luck, 122, 124, 128
surgery, 136–37
Surowiecki, James, 203–5
surrogate endpoint, 137
surveys, see polls and surveys
survivorship bias, 140–43, 170, 272
sustainable competitive advantage, 283, 285
switching costs, 305
systematic review, 172, 173
systems thinking, 192, 195, 198
tactics, 256–57
Tajfel, Henri, 127
take a step back, 298
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2, 105
talk past each other, 225
Target, 236, 252
target, measurable, 49–50
taxes, 39, 40, 56, 104, 193–94
T cells, 194
teams, 246–48, 275
roles in, 256–58, 260
size of, 278
10x, 248, 249, 255, 260, 273, 280, 294
Tech, 83
technical debt, 56, 57
technologies, 289–90, 295
adoption curves of, 115
adoption life cycles of, 116–17, 129, 289, 290, 311–12
disruptive, 308, 310–11
telephone, 118–19
temperature:
body, 146–50
thermostats and, 194
tennis, 2
10,000-Hour Rule, 261
10x individuals, 247–48
10x teams, 248, 249, 255, 260, 273, 280, 294
terrorism, 52, 234
Tesla, Inc., 300–301
testing culture, 50
Tetlock, Philip E., 206–7
Texas sharpshooter fallacy, 136
textbooks, 262
Thaler, Richard, 87
Theranos, 228
thermodynamics, 124
thermostats, 194
Thiel, Peter, 72, 288, 289
thinking:
black-and-white, 126–28, 168, 272
convergent, 203
counterfactual, 201, 272, 309–10
critical, 201
divergent, 203
fast (low-concentration), 30, 70–71
gray, 28
inverse, 1–2, 291
lateral, 201
outside the box, 201
slow (high-concentration), 30, 33, 70–71
super, viii–ix, 3, 316, 318
systems, 192, 195, 198
writing and, 316
Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 30
third story, 19, 92
thought experiment, 199–201
throwing good money after bad, 91
throwing more money at the problem, 94
tight versus loose, in organizational culture, 274
timeboxing, 75
time:
management of, 38
as money, 77
work and, 89
tipping point, 115, 117, 119, 120
tit-for-tat, 214–15
Tōgō Heihachirō, 241
tolerance, 117
tools, 95
too much of a good thing, 60
top idea in your mind, 71, 72
toxic culture, 275
Toys “R” Us, 281
trade-offs, 77–78
traditions, 275
tragedy of the commons, 37–40, 43, 47, 49
transparency, 307
tribalism, 28
Trojan horse, 228
Truman Show, The, 229
Trump, Donald, 15, 206, 293
Trump: The Art of the Deal (Trump and Schwartz), 15
trust, 20, 124, 215, 217
trying too hard, 82
Tsushima, Battle of, 241
Tupperware, 217
TurboTax, 104
Turner, John, 127
turn lemons into lemonade, 121
Tversky, Amos, 9, 90
Twain, Mark, 106
Twitter, 233, 234, 296
two-front wars, 70
type I error, 161
type II error, 161
tyranny of small decisions, 38, 55
Tyson, Mike, 7
Uber, 231, 275, 288, 290
Ulam, Stanislaw, 195
ultimatum game, 224, 244
uncertainty, 2, 132, 173, 180, 182, 185
unforced error, 2, 10, 33
unicorn candidate, 257–58
unintended consequences, 35–36, 53–55, 57, 64–65, 192, 232
Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), 306
unique value proposition, 211
University of Chicago, 144
unknown knowns, 198, 203
unknowns:
known, 197–98
unknown, 196–98, 203
urgency, false, 74
used car market, 46–47
U.S. Geological Survey, 105, 192
U.S. News and World Report, 137
us versus them, 127
utilitarianism, 189–90
utility, diminishing, 81–82
utility values, 188–90
vaccines, 39–41
flu, 133–35
value:
expected, 186–89
unique value proposition, 211
utility, 188–90
values, 275, 276, 280
vaporware, 229
variance, 149
veil of ignorance, 21
venture capitalists, 195
victim-blaming, 22
victory, hollow, 239
Vietnam, 51, 235, 276
vision, 275, 276, 280
execution and, 292
Vrij, Aldert, 13–14
Wade, Dwyane, 246
waiters, 215
waiting game, 239
Wald, Abraham, 141
walk a mile in their shoes, 23
Walgreens, 228
Wallace, Alfred, 100, 291
Walmart, 36, 70, 231, 252
WarGames, 230–31, 237
wars:
of attrition, 238, 241
generals fighting the last, 240, 241
two-front, 70
Washington, George, 222
Watergate, 51
wealth, 80
web browsers, 103–4
websites, 81, 194
dark patterns and, 226, 229
Weeble, 112
Wegener, Alfred, 24–25
Wegmans, 70
“what if” questions, 122
WhatsApp, 247, 291
Whole Foods, 70
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?, 205
“why now” questions, 291
“why” questions, 32, 33
Wikipedia, 37, 51–53, 203, 291, 305
William of Ockham, 8
Wilson, Fr
ed, 276–77
winner-take-most markets, 308
winning hearts and minds, 276, 280
win-win, 127
Wisdom of Crowds, The (Surowiecki), 203–5
work, expansion of, 89
World War I, 70
World War II, 209, 229
aircraft in, 141
appeasement in, 237
bombing of London in, 145
German-Russian conflict in, 70, 238–39
Wozniak, Steve, 289
writing, 316
Wunderlich, Carl, 146
XKCD, 169, 171
Yahoo!, 291
Yokoi, Gunpei, 296
YouTube, 220, 291
zero-sum, 127, 128
zero-tolerance policy, 238
Zuckerberg, Mark, 141
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
About the Authors
GABRIEL WEINBERG is the CEO and founder of DuckDuckGo, the internet privacy company and private search engine. He holds a BS with honors from MIT in physics and an MS from the MIT Technology and Policy Program. Weinberg is also the coauthor of Traction.
LAUREN MCCANN is a statistician and researcher. She spent nearly a decade at GlaxoSmithKline, where she designed and analyzed clinical trials and authored articles in medical journals, including the New England Journal of Medicine. She holds a PhD in operations research and a BS with honors in mathematics from MIT.
What’s next on
your reading list?
Discover your next
great read!
Get personalized book picks and up-to-date news about this author.
Sign up now.
Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Contents
Introduction: The Super Thinking Journey
CHAPTER ONE: Being Wrong Less
Keep It Simple, Stupid!
In the Eye of the Beholder
Walk a Mile in Their Shoes
Progress, One Funeral at a Time
Don’t Trust Your Gut
CHAPTER TWO: Anything That Can Go Wrong, Will
Harm Thy Neighbor, Unintentionally
Risky Business
Be Careful What You Wish For
It’s Getting Hot in Here
Too Much of a Good Thing
CHAPTER THREE: Spend Your Time Wisely
You Can Do Anything, but Not Everything
Getting More Bang for Your Buck
Get Out of Your Own Way
Shortcut Your Way to Success
CHAPTER FOUR: Becoming One with Nature
Don’t Fight Nature
Harnessing a Chain Reaction
Order Out of Chaos
CHAPTER FIVE: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
To Believe or Not Believe
Hidden Bias
Be Wary of the “law” of Small Numbers
The Bell Curve
It Depends
Right or Wrong?
Will It Replicate?
CHAPTER SIX: Decisions, Decisions
Weighing the Costs and Benefits
Taming Complexity
Beware of Unknown Unknowns
CHAPTER SEVEN: Dealing with Conflict
Playing the Game
Nudge Nudge Wink Wink
Perspective Is Everything
Where’s the Line?
The Only Winning Move Is Not to Play
Changing the Game
Endgame
CHAPTER EIGHT: Unlocking People’s Potential
It Takes a Village
Who Goes Where
Practice Makes Perfect
Unlocking Potential
Together We Thrive
CHAPTER NINE: Flex Your Market Power
Secret Sauce
Vision Without Execution Is Just Hallucination
Activate Your Force Field
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Image Credits
Index
About the Authors