by Lin Noueihed
64. Author's eyewitness account.
65. For instance, blogger Mahmoud al-Yousef warned of civil war in his blog Mahmoud's Den.
66. Central Department of Statistics and Information, 2007. Also see Sfakianakis, John, ‘Saudi Youth Struggle to Find Work Raises Urgency for Reform’, Arab News, 17 February 2011.
67. Robinson, Simon, ‘Special Report: US Cables Details Saudi Royal Welfare Programme’, Reuters, 28 February 2011.
68. See ‘Bahrain opposition says met Crown Prince on dialogue’, Reuters, 14 March 2011.
69. According to a source in regular contact with the crown prince during this period.
70. See Noueihed, Lin, ‘Bahrain Bans Lebanon Travel, Sectarian Tension Rises’, Reuters, 22 March 2011.
71. See ‘Bahrain says Iran Complaints Harm Gulf Security’, Reuters, 17 March 2011. Also see ‘Bahrain: Suspects say had Contact with Iran’, Reuters, 13 November 2011 and ‘Iran says Bahrain Plot Claim “baseless”’, Reuters, 14 November 2011.
72. See, for instance, this interview on Ahlulbayt on 29 March 2011: www.youtube.com/watch?v—il7GuA1VkY (accessed 21 November 2011).
73. Interviews with the author in Bahrain in March 2011.
74. Hammond, Andrew, ‘Bahrain King Approves Reforms, Opposition Rejects’, Reuters, 28 July 2011.
75. Based on interviews with Bahrainis familiar with the candidates’ backgrounds.
76. See ‘Report of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry,’ released 23 November 2011. The full BIC report is available at www.bici.org.bh (accessed 22 January 2012).
77. ‘Bahrain hires British ex-top cop for reforms-report’, Reuters, 3 December 2011.
78. ‘US lawmakers seek to block US arms sales to Bahrain’, Reuters, 8 October 2011.
79. Louer, Laurence, Transnational Shia Politics: Religious and Political Networks in the Gulf, New York: Columbia University Press, 2008, pp. 1–28.
80. Laessing, Ulf, ‘Shi'ite Mosque Demolitions Raise Tension in Bahrain’, Reuters, 22 April 2011.
Chapter 7: Libya's Revolution from Above
1. Schwartzman's visit was mentioned in ‘Private Equity Firms Beat Path to Tripoli’, Financial Times, 18 March 2009. Bashir visited Libya numerous times in the 2000s, as reported by state news agencies.
2. ‘BP Agrees Major Exploration and Production Deal with Libya’, BP Press Release, 29 May 2007, www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7033600
3. Original motives for Libyan involvement include France's support for Chad during the Libyan-Chad war of the time. In July 2011 former foreign minister Abderrahman Shalgam said they had blown it up because they (incorrectly) believed that Mohammed al-Megrief, then leader of the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL) was on board flight UTA 772.
4. ‘French Air Force Rafales Attack Libya’, Aviation News, 19 March 2011.
5. ‘Tripoli Real Estate 2008’ report by Frontier MEA, 2008.
6. Ibid.
7. UNCTAD World Investment Report 2010.
8. Libyan Ministry of Tourism and Handicrafts, obtained by Frontier MEA. Arrivals rose from 23,029 in 2003 to 125,480 in 2006. Figures refer to non-Libyans arriving specifically on tourist visas (rather than business visas).
9. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1561031/Gaddafis-son-calls-for-new-Libyan-constitution.html
10. This was reported in some international media, for instance http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE70H1PK20110118
11. Interview with the author, 2010.
12. Report is listed by Human Rights Watch at www.hrw.org/en/news/2010/02/11/postcard-fromtripoli
13. As reported in the media, e.g. by AFP at www.canada.com/montrealgazette/story.html?id=e9214aea-d552–4f1b-ba51–1e5e943fac37
14. As quoted in www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/25/muammar-gaddafi-libya
15. ‘Verenex Shareholders Approve Libya Takeover Deal’, Reuters, 11 December 2009.
16. As related by the tourism official to the author in late 2010.
17. First-hand research by the author in 2010.
18. As recalled by a passenger who was on the flight and reported at www.businesstraveller.com/news/airlines-cancel-tripoli-flights
19. ‘Libya's Gaddafi says Tunisia's ouster was too hasty’, Reuters, 16 January 2011.
20. Transcription of Saif's speech on 20 February 2011 is at http://mylogicoftruth.wordpress.com/2011/02/20/full-text-of-saif-gaddafis-speech/
21. Belhadj launched a lawsuit against the British government in late 2011. His claims appeared widely in the press. See, for instance, ‘Libyan commander Abdelhakim Belhadj withdraws cooperation from British torture enquiry’, Daily Telegraph, 12 January 2012.
22. Author's experience.
23. Author's visit to Benghazi, late 2010.
24. As cited at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/4726204.stm (accessed 15 September 2011).
25. See, for instance, ‘Sarkozy's Libyan surprise’, Economist, 14 March 2011.
26. Henri-Levy made the comment in a 14 March interview with Al-Jazeera English, accessible online at www.youtube.com/watch?v—-tAmkKRVME.
27. As reported on 5 March in Le Parisien, www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle–2012/sondage-presidentielle-marine-le-pen-en-tete-au-premier-tour–05–03–2011–1344656.php
28. The rally took place in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, in August 2008. It was reported in Lebanon's Daily Star at www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/Sep/01/Berri-flays-Gadhafi-over-Sadrs-disappearance.ashx#axzz1ZdEKyNvS.
29. A transcript of Gates’ speech can be found at http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/06/10/transcript-of-defense-secretary-gatess-speech-on-natos-future/
30. Press Statement issued on 19 March 2011, quoted in numerous sources, e.g. www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/366790
31. Author's experience.
32. ‘Libye: Seif al-Islam Kaddafi commence a parler’, Jeune Afrique, 29 December 2011 (accessed 30 December 2011).
33. ‘Nato Must Target Gaddafi Regime, Says Armed Forces Chief Gen Sir David Richards’, Daily Telegraph, 14 May 2011.
34. Author's experience, April–May 2011.
35. Ibid.
36. There are conflicting death tolls, some higher, some lower. This one was issued by the interim health minister on 8 September 2011, reported at www.tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=6862
37. See, for instance, ‘Al-Jazeera footage captures “Western troops on the ground” in Libya’, Guardian, 30 May 2011.
38. ‘Qatar Fielded Hundreds of Soldiers in Libya’, Al-Ahram, 26 October 2011, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/25193/World/Region/Qatar-fielded-hundreds-of-soldiers-in-Libya.aspx (accessed 15 November 2011).
39. According to author's interview with Amazigh rebels in western mountains, and see, for instance, Black, Ian, ‘Qatar admits sending hundreds of troops to support Libyan rebels’, Guardian, 26 October 2011.
40. ‘Holding Libya Together – Security Challenges after Qaddafi’, International Crisis Group, December 2011.
41. Several such videos and photos were uploaded onto various internet sites. One graphic frame-by-frame analysis is at www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/111024/gaddafi-sodomized-video-gaddafi-sodomy
42. The footage can be seen at www.criticalpast.com/video/65675050654_Libyan-independence_Union-Jack_Adrian-Pelt_Benghazi
43. See, for instance, ‘Libya: Militias terrorizing residents of ‘loyalist’ town’, Human Rights Watch, 30 October 2011.
44. Originally reported in an article by the Wall Street Journal on 21 June 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304887904576395143328336026.html
Chapter 8: Disintegrating Yemen
1. Small Arms Survey 2007. Yemen is ranked second worldwide.
2. Author's visit in 2007.
3. Brian Whitaker, The Birth of Modern Yemen, Chapter 1. Published as an eBook in 2009: www.al-bab.com
4. US embassy cable released by WikiLeaks, www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/08/s
audi-arabia-yemen-ali-mohsen
5. BP Statistical World Handbook 2011.
6. Yemen Armed Violence Assessment, Small Arms Survey, Issue Brief 2, October 2010.
7. ‘Yemen: Towards Qat Demand Reduction’, World Bank report, June 2007.
8. UNDP International Human Development Indicators, http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/YEM.html (accessed 15 September 2011).
9. Congressional testimony by Petraeus on 13 September 2011 to Joint House-Senate Intelligence Committee, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/8760342/Al-Qaeda-in-Arabian-Peninsula-most-dangerous.html
10. Human Rights Watch.
11. Interview with the authors, October 2011.
12. Quoted in the New York Times, www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/magazine/yemen-on-the-brink-of-hell.html?pagewanted=all (accessed 17 September 2011).
13. As reported at www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/18/us-yemen-idUSTRE72H2Z 720110318
14. ‘Saleh Orders Rival Tribal Chief's Arrest’, Al-Jazeera International, 26 May 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/201152691014710948.html
15. Interview with the authors, 29 September 2011.
16. Ibid.
17. Details at www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=3&id=23755
18. The Arabic translation of the interview was published by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence, accessed at www.icsr.info
19. As reported in Human Rights Watch report,www.hrw.org/news/2011/07/09/yemen-dozens-civilians-killed-southern-fighting
20. ‘UNHCR Worried About Refugees and Displaced People in Strife-torn Yemen’, 3 June 2011, www.unhcr.org/4de8ec1d6.html (accessed 19 September 2011).
21. Some details on 2010 pro-secession protests at www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/04/28/Yemen-Secession-drive-becomes-violent/UPI–12361272477397/
22. Referenced in ‘Breaking Point – Yemen's Southern Question’, International Crisis Group, 20 October 2011.
23. Interview with the authors, 3 November 2011.
24. IMF World Economic Outlook database, September 2011.
25. ‘Yemen: Fragile Lives in Hungry Times’, Oxfam briefing paper, September 2011.
26. Ibid.
27. Press release from IMF website, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/car080310b.htm (accessed 10 September 2011).
Chapter 9: The Struggle for Syria
1. This translation was published by the official Syrian state news agency, SANA, at www.sana.sy/eng/337/2011/06/21/353686.htm (accessed 17 November 2011).
2. ‘War is Only Option to Topple Syrian Leader: Colonel’, Reuters, 7 October 2011.
3. Cited in Seale, Patrick, Asad, the Struggle for the Middle East, University of California Press, 1989, p. 40.
4. The pupil was Mohammed ibn Nusayr. The Alawites were and still are sometimes called Nusayris.
5. Salah Jadid remained in prison from 1970 until his death in 1993. Muhammed Umran was shot dead in 1972. Abdel Karim al-Jundi killed himself in 1962. Ahmad al-Mir had been sent to Madrid as ambassador in 1968.
6. The co-founders of the party were Salaheddin Bitar and Michel Aflaq. Both had previously been schoolteachers in Damascus.
7. The cleric was Imam Moussa al-Sadr, the spiritual founder of Lebanon's Shi'ite Muslim Amal movement, who disappeared in Libya in 1978.
8. The 1973 constitution did, however, state that Islam was the source of jurisprudence. An English translation of the document is available at www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/sy00000_.html
9. Cited in Seale, Patrick, Asad, the Struggle for the Middle East, University of California Press, 1989, p. 171.
10. Reporters Without Borders website: http://en.rsf.org/press-freedom-index–2010,1034.html (accessed 23 November 2011).
11. Average production fell from about 575,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the late 1990s to around 375,000 b/d in the late 2000s, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011.
12. Interview in Damascus with the author in 2008.
13. In 2001 Ghassan al-Rifai, a former World Bank executive, was appointed as Minister of Economy and Foreign Trade. Ali Kanaa, an economist, was put in charge of the state-owned Industrial Bank, while the French-educated Sadallah Agha al-Qalaa became Minister of Tourism.
14. The first ATMs were opened in 2001 by the Real Estate Bank: www.albawaba.com/business/first-atm-machine-opens-syria
15. Damascus Securities Exchange website: www.dse.sy
16. ‘Syria Among Fastest-growing Tourist Destinations in Mideast’, SANA news agency, 5 April 2011, www.sana.sy/eng/33/2011/04/05/339958.htm (accessed 18 November 2011).
17. Interview with the author, 2010.
18. Cited in Blanford, Nicholas, Killing Mr Lebanon. I.B. Tauris, 2006, pp. 89–90.
19. Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics figures, accessed through: www.cbssyr.org
20. Central Bureau of Statistics, 2010 Statistical Abstract.
21. Ibid., www.cbssyr.org/yearbook/2010/Data-Chapter15/TAB–5–15–2010.htm
22. Interview with the author, 2006.
23. The full text of the resolution can be found on the UN website at www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc8181.doc.htm.
24. ‘Interview with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’, Wall Street Journal, 31 January 2011.
25. A video of the protest can be seen at www.youtube.com/watch?v=i41MjEGqprI (accessed 20 November 2011).
26. ‘Inside Deraa’, Al-Jazeera, 19 April 2011, www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/04/201141918352728300.html
27. ‘Syrian City of Deraa Hit by Protests’, BBC News, 24 April 2011, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world–13016843
28. ‘Rami Makhlouf Sells Syrian Duty-free Businesses’, Duty Free News International, 20 June 2011.
29. ‘Makhlouf to Focus on Charity’, Syria Today, July 2011, www.syria-today.com/index.php/july–2011/838-business-news/16152-makhlouf-to-focus-on-charity
30. ‘Syria Opens up to Social Networks’, BBC News, 11 February 2011.
31. ‘Instigating Channels Lacking Coverage of Raising Largest Syrian Flag Betrays their Involvement in Conspiracy’, www.sana.sy/eng/337/2011/06/15/352885.htm (accessed 23 November 2011).
32. Interview with the author, November 2011.
33. ‘Syria Faces More International Pressure after Assad Speaks’, Bloomberg, 21 June 2011.
34. ‘Background Note: Syria’, US State Department, 18 March 2011: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3580.htm (accessed 20 September 2011).
35. Bhalla, Reva. ‘Making Sense of the Syrian Crisis’, Stratfor Global Intelligence, 5 May 2011: www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110504-making-sense-syrian-crisis?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110505&utm_content=readmore&elq=2ef73758a9434404bd465acd3490d5fe#ixzz1LTPFUuuw (accessed 20 September 2011).
36. ‘Syria's Military: What does Assad Have?’, Reuters, 6 April 2011 (accessed 20 September 2011).
37. Bhalla, Reva. ‘Making Sense of the Syrian Crisis’, Stratfor Global Intelligence, 5 May 2011, www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110504-making-sense-syrian-crisis?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110505&utm_content=readmore&elq=2ef73758a9434404bd465acd3490d5fe#ixzz1LTPFUuuw (accessed 20 September 2011).
38. While there are no official figures on the size of the various minorities, the two provinces of Lattakia and Tartous had a combined population of 2.1 million in 2010, about 9 per cent of the total, according to official statistics. When taking into account the Sunni and Christian population in those provinces, plus the Alawites in other parts of the country, it seemed unlikely that Alawites made up no more than about 10 per cent of Syria's population.
39. Noueihed, Lin, ‘Exclusive: Second Arab monitor may quit Syria over violence’, Reuters, 11 January 2012.
40. Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics.
41. Hourani, Albert, A History of the Arab Peoples. London: Faber and Faber, paperback edition 2002, p. 454.
42. ‘Christian Support for the Ba'athists’, Al-Arabiya, 27 November 2011, www.alarabiya.net/views
/2011/11/27/179364.html
43. ‘Kurds Step into Syria's Protest Mix’, Wall Street Journal, 10 October 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203499704576620443224171146.html
44. ‘Syrians Would Support Turkish Intervention – Brotherhood Leader’, Reuters, 17 November 2011.
45. Interview with Hala Jaber in the Sunday Times, 20 November 2011.
46. ‘Syrian Elite to Fight Protests to “The End”?’, New York Times, 10 May 2011, www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/world/middleeast/11makhlouf.html?pagewanted=all (accessed 24 November 2011).
47. ‘US Criticizes Syria for “Cynical” Golan Heights Incident’, VOA News, 17 May 2011, www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/in-transition/US-Criticizes-Syria-for-Cynical-Golan-Heights-Incident–121985054.html (accessed 24 November 2011).
48. ‘Israel Sees Syrian Hand in Golan Clashes, 23 dead’, Reuters, 6 June 2011.
49. ‘Muslim Brotherhood Breaks with Khaddam and NSF’, Syria Comment, 6 April 2009, www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=2627 (accessed 1 December 2011).
50. ‘Assad under Pressure from Qatar Embassy Closure, EU’, Reuters, 18 July 2011.
51. Several media reports contained these claims. One was the Daily Telegraph in an article on 26 November 2011 entitled ‘Libya's New Rulers Offer Weapons to Syrian Rebels’, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8917265/Libyas-new-rulers-offer-weapons-to-Syrian-rebels.html
52. ‘Syrian Regime Importing Foreign Fighters – FSA’, Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat, 28 November 2011, http://asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&id=27471
53. ‘Shell, Total Cut Syrian Oil Output amid Sanctions’, Reuters, 11 November 2011.
54. Originally published on the SNC website on 20 November 2011, at www.syriannc.org
55. ‘France Calls for Humanitarian Zone in Syria’, Reuters, 23 November 2011.
Chapter 10: The Kings’ Dilemma
1. Population figures according to the UAE National Bureau of Statistics 2005 census. The population has risen significantly since then.
2. Some 6,700 UAE nationals were given the vote in 2006. For the elections of 2011, coming after the Arab uprisings and amid growing domestic calls for wider suffrage, 129,000 nationals were given the vote.
