The Battle for the Arab Spring
Page 45
3. ‘Dubai sets a 7% rent cap for 2007 to curb inflation’, Reuters, 1 January 2007.
4. Dubai Statistics Center, Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2009.
5. From author's interview with UAE then-Minister of State for the Federal National Council, Anwar Gergash, published by Reuters, 22 November 2006.
6. Qatar Statistics Authority, www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/HistoryOfCensus.aspx on 7 October 2011.
7. Kuwait census agency, www.kuwaitcensus.com
8. UAE Statistics Bureau (the number of Emiratis at end of June 2011 was 948,000 out of a total population of 7.3 million); Central Statistical Bureau of Kuwait, at www.kuwaitcensus.com (accessed 15 October 2011).
9. Oil and gas revenue figure taken from Qatar Central Bank, 2010 Annual Report. Qataris are estimated to account for 14 per cent of the total population of 1,069,756 recorded in the 2010 census.
10. Kuwait Census statistics, IMF World Economic Database. Author's own calculations based on 2008 figure of Kuwaiti nationals.
11. As reported in http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/qatar/public-sector-in-qatar-to-get–60-per-cent-pay-rise–1.862595 (accessed 12 September 2011).
12. ‘UAE: Government Detains Human Rights Defender’, Human Rights Watch press release, 9 April 2011, www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/04/09/uae-government-detains-human-rights-defender (accessed on 14 October 2011).
13. Taken from page 5 of the UAE constitution, available online at www.unhcr.org/refworld/category,LEGAL,,,ARE,48eca8132,0.html (accessed 14 October 2011).
14. The original petition in Arabic is available at www.ipetitions.com/petition/uaepetition71/; Ibtissam Ketbi, as quoted in the Wall Street Journal article ‘UAE Citizens Petition Rulers for Elected Parliament’, 9 March 2011, at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704132204576190012553500944.html (accessed 14 October 2011).
15. ‘UAE: Activists Arrested for Opposing Government’, Human Rights Watch, 25 April 2011, www.hrw.org/news/2011/04/25/uae-activists-arrested-opposing-government
16. ‘UAE: Trial Observer Says Case Against “UAE5” has been Grossly Unfair’, Amnesty International, 3 November 2011.
17. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011. Production was 865,000 b/d in 2010 compared to 813,000 in 2009 and 754,000 in 2008.
18. Oman Central Bank, Annual Report 2010. Debt was about 5 per cent of GDP in 2010.
19. ‘Oman to Spend $2.6bn to Satisfy Protest Demands’, Reuters, 17 April 2011.
20. Oman Census 2010 preliminary results.
21. ‘Deaths in Oman Protests’, Al-Jazeera English, 27 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/2011227112850852905.html (accessed 12 October 2011).
22. ‘Oman Protesters Call for Political Reform, Pay Rise’, Reuters, 19 February 2011, www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/19/us-oman-protests-idUSTRE71I0V920110219
23. ‘Oman Police Kill 2 Protesters, Sultan Offers Jobs’, Reuters, 27 February 2011.
24. Jordan received soft loans and grants worth more than $1 billion in 2010. Central Bank of Jordan, Annual Report 2010, www.cbj.gov.jo (accessed 30 September 2011).
25. Central Bank of Jordan, Annual Report 2010.
26. Ibid.
27. According to official Jordanian government figures, in the final quarter of 2010, the male unemployment rate was 10 per cent compared to 20.1 per cent among females. Overall unemployment was 11.9 per cent in the final quarter of 2010, www.dos.gov.jo/dos_home_e/archive/emp_12_2010.pdf
28. Combined current and capital expenditure rose from SR285.2 billion in 2004 to SR596.4 billion in 2009, according to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Annual Report 2010, Statistical Appendix; cited in ‘Saudi Arabia's coming oil and fiscal challenge’ Jadwa Investment, July 2011.
29. Carey, Glen. ‘Saudi Arabia's economy will expand 5.3% on oil prices, NCB says’, Bloomberg, 15 May 2011.
30. April 2010 government census listed 27.1 million people. Assuming continued growth, it is likely to have reached close to 28 million by 2012.
31. ‘Saudi Arabia's Coming Oil and Fiscal Challenge’, a report published by the Riyadh-based Jadwa investment bank, July 2011.
32. ‘Airport Highway to Become Kingdom's First Toll Road’, Jordan Times, 6 October 2011 (accessed 13 October 2011). The other toll roads in the region are in Dubai and Tunisia.
33. ‘GCC Agrees Five-year Aid Plan for Morocco and Jordan’, the National, 13 September 2011, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/gcc-agrees-five-year-aid-plan-for-morocco-and-jordan
34. ‘Tiny Kingdom's Huge Role in Libya Draws Concern’, Wall Street Journal, 17 October 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204002304576627000922764650.html
35. Comments were translated from the Arabic and reported at http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/04/libyan_diplomat_unloads_on_qatar
36. Poll conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies.
37. ‘King Abdullah Interview Transcript’, Washington Post, 16 June 2011, www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/king-abdullah-interview-transcript/2011/06/15/AGHQpjWH_story.html (accessed 25 September 2011).
Chapter 11: The Islamist Resurgence
1. From Ghannouchi's Al-Hurriyat al-'Amma fid-Dawla al-Islamiyya as quoted in Tamimi, Azsam S., Rachid Ghannouchi: A Democrat within Islamism, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2001.
2. For a thorough examination of Algeria's revolution and the army takeover, see Evans, Martin and Phillips, John, Algeria: Anger of the Dispossessed, New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2007.
3. Ibid., p. 150.
4. Kirkpatrick, David, ‘Military flexes its muscles as Islamists gain in Egypt’, New York Times, 7 December 2011, www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/world/middleeast/egyptian-general-mukhtar-al-mulla-asserts-continuing-control-despite-elections.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all (accessed 25 January 2012).
5. Many articles appeared, mostly from the second half of 2011, that made this point. Many were published in traditionally right-of centre publications. See, for instance, ‘EDITORIAL: From Arab Spring to Islamist Winter’, Washington Times, 25 October 2011, www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/25/from-arab-spring-to-islamist-winter/ (accessed 25 January 2012) and Bradley, John, ‘Arab Spring? This is turning into the winter of Islamic jihad’, Daily Mail, 22 November 2011, www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article–2064503/Arab-Spring-This-turning-winter-Islamic-jihad.html (accessed 25 January 2012).
6. Voll, John O, ‘Fundamentalism in the Sunni Arab World; Egypt and the Sudan’, in Marty, Martin E. and Appleby, R. Scott, Fundamentalisms Observed, Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press, 1994, pp. 345–90.
7. See Wright, Lawrence, ‘The Man Behind Bin Laden’, New Yorker, 16 September 2002, in which Wright describes the relationship between Bin Laden and Zawahri.
8. See ‘Al Zawahri: Egyptian Militant Group Joins Al-Qaeda’, CNN, 5 August 2006, http://articles.cnn.com/2006–08–05/world/zawahiri.tape_1_zawahiri-al-jazeera-al-qaeda-terrorist-network?_s=PM:WORLD
9. ‘The 2001 Arab Public Opinion poll’, Brookings Institution, October 2011, www.brookings.edu/reports/2011/1121_arab_public_opinion_telhami.aspx
Chapter 12: Embracing the Void
1. ‘Mideast Power Brokers Call for “Marshall Plan” After Unrest’, Reuters, 22 October 2011.
2. Harrigan and al-Said, ‘The Economic Impact of World Bank and IMF Programs in the Middle East and North Africa: A Case Study of Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia’, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 6(2), 2010, http://www.relooney.info/0_NS4053_1226.pdf
3. Cited in Dresch, Paul, A History of Modern Yemen, Cambridge University Press, 2000, p. 198. Data is also in ‘Yemen: Transactions with the Fund’ at IMF online database, www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/extrans1.aspx?memberKey1=1069&endDate=2011–10–31&finposition_flag=YES (accessed 4 November 2011).
4. An assessment of the programmes is discussed in the IMF's Article IV consultation on Syria, published March 2010.
5. US Census Bureau Annual Report 2010
. Poverty is classed as an annual income of below $22,314 for a family of four, and $11,139 for a single person. Overall poverty was 15.1 per cent, 26.6 per cent among Hispanics and 27.4 per cent among the black community.
6. Data on income inequalities are incomplete, but the Gini coefficient rankings published by the CIA lists the US as the 40th most unequal in the world. In comparison, Tunisia is ranked 63, Egypt 92 and Turkey 64. The rankings are published at www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html
7. ‘Remarks at Opening Press Conference’, 14 April 2011, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/MENAEXT/LIBYAEXTN/0,,print:Y~isCURL:Y~contentMDK:22888974~menuPK:410789~pagePK:2865066~piPK:2865079~theSitePK:410780,00.html (accessed 2 November 2011).
8. Institut National de Statistique, Repertoire Nationale des Entreprises.
9. US Census Bureau figures, www.census.gov/econ/smallbus.html (accessed 2 November 2011).
10. ‘Jordan Ex-CBank Head Says Ousted by Force’, Reuters, 21 September 2011.
11. Cited in ‘The Syrian People's Slow-Motion Revolution’, ICG, July 2011, p. 6.
12. The footage appeared on Tunisia state TV in November 2008 and can be viewed online at www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEA9X6j7b_U (accessed 3 November 2011).
13. ‘Egypt T-bill Yields Surge, May Need Foreign Cash’, Reuters, 20 September 2011.
14. ‘Declaration of the G8 on the Arab Spring’, press release, 26–27 May 2011, www.g20-g8.com/g8-g20/g8/english/live/news/declaration-of-the-g8-on-the-arab-springs.1316.html (accessed 3 November 2011).
15. ‘Tunisia: EIB Signs Its First Post-Deauville Loan’, EIB Press Release, 24 June 2011, www.eib.org/projects/press/2011/2011–091-la-bei-signe-son-premier-financement-de-lapres-deauville-en-tunisie–163-meur.htm (accessed 3 November 2011); ‘African Development Bank Gives Tunis $500m Loan’, Reuters, 10 June 2011; ‘Obama Faces Obstacles in Aid to Arab Nations’, Washington Post, 25 September 2011. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2016319063_arabspring26.html
16. US Treasury Department figures. The historical debt outstanding is listed at www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm.
17. ‘Arab Attitudes 2011’, published by Arab American Institute Foundation and conducted by Zogby International.
18. ‘Obama Presses Egypt's Military on Democracy’, New York Times, 11 February 2011.
19. SAMA Annual Report 2010, Statistical Appendix. Export values to China rose from SR5, 630m in 2000 to SR112,210m in 2010. 2010 figures are listed as provisional. Imports from China rose from 4.4 billion riyals in 2000 to 46.85 billion riyals in 2010.
20. Saudi Aramco Annual Report. Exports to China in 2009 were estimated at approximately one million barrels per day.
21. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures.
22. As above, from 1.65 million b/d in 2002–3 to 3.29 million b/d in 2010–11.
Afterword
1. ‘Islamists and Secularists in Tunisia Stand-off’, Tarek Amara, Reuters, 3 December 2011.
2. Chourabi, Sofiane, ‘Tunisia's Secularists and Islamists: A Growing Divide?’, Al-Akhbar, 7 December 2011, http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/tunisia%E2%80%99s-islamists-and-secularists-growing-divide (accessed 17 December 2011).
Bibliography and Sources
Newspapers, magazines, television stations, agencies and other outlets
AFP (Agence France-Presse, French news agency)
Agence Tunis Afrique Presse (Tunisian state news agency)
Ahlulbayt (Iraqi-owned Shi'ite TV channel and news service)
Al-Ahram (Egyptian daily)
Alalam (Iranian state-owned TV station broadcasting in Arabic)
AP (Associated Press, news agency)
Arabian Business (Dubai-based Gulf business magazine)
Arabist.net
Al-Arabiya (Saudi-owned pan-Arab TV channel)
Ash-Sharq al-Awsat (pan-Arab newspaper published in London)
Bahrain TV (state-owned TV channel)
BBC News
Bloomberg
Business Today Egypt
Christian Science Monitor
Daily Star (Lebanese English-language daily)
Daily Telegraph
Deccan Herald
Dream TV (Egyptian TV channel)
Economist
Economist Intelligence Unit
Egyptian Gazette
Euromoney (London-based financial magazine)
Financial Times
Foreign Policy
Foreign Affairs
Guardian
Gulf Daily News (Bahrain-based daily)
Gulf News (UAE-based daily)
Hannibal TV (Tunisian TV channel)
Al-Hayat (pan-Arab newspaper based in London)
Independent
International Herald Tribune
IRIN (UN-run news source focussed on humanitarian news)
Al-Jamahiriya (Libyan state-run newspaper, now believed defunct)
Jamahiriya News Agency (Libyan state news agency, now believed defunct)
Al-Jazeera
Jeune Afrique (French-language current affairs magazine based in Paris)
Jordan Times
JO (Jordan-based English language magazine)
Khaleej Times (UAE-based newspaper)
Kuwait Times
Al-Libia (state-owned Libyan TV channel)
Libya Al-Youm (newspaper founded in 2011)
Al Manar (Hezbollah-run satellite TV station)
Al-Masry al-Youm (Egyptian newspaper)
Le Matin (Moroccan daily newspaper)
MEED (pan-Arab economic and business news source)
Le Monde
Moody's (ratings agency)
National (Abu Dhabi state-owned daily)
Nawaat.org (Tunisian political and economic news and analysis website)
New Yorker
New York Times
Al Nil (Egyptian TV channel)
Oman Observer
Petroleum Economist
Reuters
Russia Today (state-owned TV station and website)
Saudi Economic Survey
Saudi Press Agency (state news agency)
Slate
Al Shorouk (Egyptian newspaper)
Sunday Times
Syrian Arab News Agency (state news agency)
Syria Report (economic and business news website)
Syria Today (English-language magazine based in Damascus)
Le Temps (Tunisian daily)
Time
The Times
Tishrin (Syrian state-owned newspaper)
Tripoli Post
Wall Street Journal
Al-Wasat (Bahrain's first independent daily newspaper)
Washington Post
WikiLeaks
Xinhua (Chinese state news agency)
Yemen Times
Yemen Observer
Other local information sources
Abu Dhabi Gallup Center
Abu Dhabi Statistics Centre
African Development Bank
Bank Audi (Lebanese bank)
Bourse de Tunis (Tunisian stock exchange)
Capital Markets Authority (Saudi stock market regulator)
Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS, Egyptian statistics agency)
Central Bank of Bahrain
Central Bank of Egypt
Central Bank of Kuwait
Central Bank of Libya
Central Bank of Morocco
Central Bank of Oman
Central Bank of Qatar
Central Bank of Syria
Central Bank of Tunisia
Central Bank of Yemen
Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates
Central Bureau of Statistics (Syria)
Central Informatics Organization (Bahrain)
Central Statistical Office (Kuwait)
Central Statistical Organization (Yemen)
Damascus Securities Exchange
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Department of Statistics (Jordan)
Dubai Financial Market
Dubai Statistics Centre
Dubai School of Government
Haut Commissariat au Plan (Moroccan statistics agency)
Institut National de Statistique (Tunisian statistics authority)
Jadwa Investment (Riyadh-based investment bank)
Libyan Information Authority
Ministry of Finance (Egypt)
National Oil Corporation (Libyan state energy company)
Qatar Statistics Authority
Samba (Saudi bank)
Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (Saudi Central Bank)
Saudi Aramco (state energy company)
International organization, think-tanks and NGOs
Amnesty International
Brookings Institution
BP (Statistical Review of World Energy)
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Chatham House
Congressional Research Service
Council on Foreign Relations
German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Gulf Research Center
Human Rights Watch
The International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence
International Crisis Group
International Energy Agency
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
International Monetary Fund
International Telecommunications Union
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
Oxfam
Project on Middle East Democracy
Reporters Without Borders
Royal United Services Institute
Small Arms Survey
Transparency International
United Nations Conference on Trade and Investment
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
World Bank
Selected books and articles
Ahmed, Leila, A Quiet Revolution, Yale University Press, London and New Haven, 2011
Al Aswany, Alaa, The Yacoubian Building, Harper Perennial, New York, 2006 (originally published in Arabic in 2002)
Al Khamissi, Khaled, Taxi, Bloomsbury Qatar Foundation Publishing, Doha, 2011 (originally published in Arabic by Dar al Chorouk, Cairo, 2006)