Black Ice

by Brad Thor

  “I don’t like it, but I have to give them credit. We assigned a priapic moron to this post and they’re doing everything within their power to take advantage of it.”

  “You’re not a fan of the Ambo. I get it,” he said. “But what does he have to do with you sitting this one out?”

  There was no reason to hold anything else back, so she didn’t. “Because the Norwegians are using him to put the CIA on ice.”

  CHAPTER 9

  It was a shocking assertion. “You told the Ambassador about our ghost and he revealed that information to the Norwegians?”

  Hayes shook her head. “He’s stupid, but he’s not that stupid. Operational security has actually been one of the few areas in which he has done a halfway decent job.”

  “Then how are the Norwegians exerting influence? They’re a NATO ally, after all. They should have no problem with us running this to ground.”

  “Earlier in the year, the Ambassador was told in no uncertain terms that we were to lay off the Chinese. No surveillance. No recruitment. Nothing.”

  “That’s insane.”

  “I said the same thing, but the Norwegians were adamant.”

  “Why? What could possibly justify that position?”

  “Ten years of crippling economic and diplomatic sanctions out of Beijing.”

  “Over what?” he asked.

  “Do you remember back in 2010 when the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to a Chinese dissident? At the time, it was a huge deal. His name was Liu Xiaobo.”

  “I don’t remember the exact details, but I remember it happening.”

  “Well, Beijing was not happy. In fact, the Chinese Communist Party was pissed. Really pissed. It was also vindictive. At the State Department, they like to say the Chinese have as many types of statecraft as the Eskimos have words for snow. To get back at the Norwegians, the CCP launched a campaign of ‘coercive’ diplomacy.

  “In addition to freezing diplomatic relations with Norway, they used multiple tools in their toolkit to damage their economy. They blocked Norwegian salmon imports, restricted business investments, mothballed trade deals, refused to issue visas to Norwegian citizens, and forbade their own people from tourism to Norway. It was brutal. Norway was bleeding red ink, but they didn’t cave. They held fast and refused to rescind the award. Eventually, China blinked.

  “There has been a thaw—both figuratively and literally. Relations are slowly warming. They learned a painful lesson and don’t want to rock the boat again.”

  “Norway took an admirable stance,” Harvath said. “That takes guts. But the Chinese don’t do anything unless there’s something in it for them. What changed?”

  “That’s the literal thaw in all of this. The ice in the Arctic is melting. As it does, there’s a race on to secure massive deposits of precious minerals, natural gas, and oil. Sea-lanes, previously frozen, are opening up, which offer new and faster shipping routes.

  “The Chinese,” Hayes continued, “want to get their fingers into as many of these pies as possible. Therefore, they’re playing nice—not only with the Norwegians, but with the other Arctic member states as well. Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Sweden, and Russia. The only Arctic state to have told them to go pound snow is the United States.”

  “Because we’re an Arctic state via Alaska.”

  “Correct.”

  “What happened?”

  “A couple of years ago, China released its first policy paper on the Arctic. In it, China declared itself a ‘near’ Arctic state.”

  Harvath laughed. “What does that even mean?”

  “Absolutely nothing. It’s a made-up term. When asked about it at a press conference, our Secretary of State laughed out loud too. China’s northernmost settlement is over nine hundred miles away from the Arctic Circle. It’s nonsense—to everyone—except the Chinese. To them, this is deadly serious. The Russians are serious too.

  “Back in 2007, the Russian navy sent a camera-laden mini-sub fourteen thousand feet beneath the North Pole. There, via a robotic claw, it planted their flag on the seafloor. Ever since, they’ve been signaling that almost 500,000 square miles of the Arctic is an extension of Russia’s continental shelf and should belong to them.”

  “Is there any truth to that?” Harvath asked. “Do they have a legit territorial claim?”

  “None at all,” she replied. “They don’t have a shred of evidence. Just like the Chinese, they’re making it up. But when you repeat a lie often enough, even the liar starts to believe it, and this is where it gets dangerous.

  “In the last twenty years, Russia’s military spending has increased one hundred and seventy-five percent. We spend ten times more than they do, yet it’s not how much they’re spending that’s the problem but where. They’ve fully prioritized the Arctic.”

  “And we haven’t.”

  “Unfortunately, that’s correct. In particular, Russia has focused on beefing up its Northern Fleet. They’ve been adding more submarines capable of launching nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, reopening old Soviet naval bases, refurbishing old airstrips, and building brand-new military installations throughout the region. As one of our esteemed United States senators recently said, ‘The Russians are playing chess in the Arctic and our administration still seems to think it’s tic-tac-toe.’

  “He wasn’t wrong. It took something pretty chilling, if you’ll pardon the pun, for the administration to sit up and take notice. Last August, a Russian sub surfaced near the North Pole and fired a Sineva-type intercontinental ballistic missile.”

  Harvath was familiar with the weapon. “Those can carry nukes,” he said.

  Hayes nodded. “That same day, another Russian sub in the Arctic, while remaining submerged, launched a Bulava-type intercontinental ballistic missile.”

  “Which can also carry a nuclear warhead.”

  “Correct. One of the missiles landed in an unpopulated location on Russia’s Pacific coast. The other hit their Kanin Peninsula. With these two acts, the Russians have made it clear that if they ever officially declare that chunk of the Arctic—and all of its resources—is theirs, they have the means to defend it. Suffice it to say that the Arctic quickly received the administration’s attention.

  “The Pentagon updated its national defense strategy, clearly delineating that Russia and China had bumped terrorism out of the top spot as the greatest potential threat to American national security. Whether we stumbled into a conflict in the Arctic that escalated, or whether the Arctic was used as a staging ground for an attack on the homeland, we couldn’t half-ass our policy there any longer.

  “So, while the Russians have made substantial investments in the Arctic both militarily and commercially, they have begun partnering up with the Chinese on projects, which we find troubling—to say the least.”

  He couldn’t blame her for feeling that way. Alone, the Russians and the Chinese each were bad actors. Put them together and nothing good would come of it. U.S. Intelligence was very much against any such cooperation and sought to thwart it wherever possible.

  “China declares itself a ‘near Arctic state’ and gets laughed at,” he said. “So what are they hoping to get from a country like Norway?”

  “A foothold. Hell, even a toehold. Anything that can give them access and a modicum of respectability in the Arctic. It’s the old chestnut about the camel’s nose in the tent, except there are no camels in the Arctic. But there are polar bears. And like the Chinese—”

  “They can be extremely dangerous,” he said, finishing her sentence for her.

  “Precisely.”

  Harvath was well aware that the United States saw China as its single most important security challenge. The last U.S. defense bill included more than two billion dollars aimed at countering China. Their military satellites, artificial intelligence, and cyberwarfare capabilities—not to mention how they had been closing the gap with U.S. firepower via hypervelocity missiles, robotics, and unmanned systems—had turned them into what the
Pentagon now referred to as a “near-peer” rival.

  “How do they begin to get access in the Arctic?” he asked.

  “Through something called the Belt and Road Initiative. It’s the focus, the crown jewel, of the CCP’s foreign policy agenda. They’re in pursuit of two major goals: to have the world’s strongest economy and one of its strongest militaries. To make that happen, they’re going to need food, fuel, and raw materials. They simply cannot create enough, on their own, inside China. So they have to look outside.”

  “To countries like Norway.”

  “And about seventy others,” she explained. “Along with a string of international organizations. The Chinese call it strategic investing. Critics call it the development of a global, China-centric trade network. Essentially, what they’re doing is purchasing influence—seats at very important, very exclusive tables. All in an effort to diversify and lock in the commodities they need to fuel their growth over the next one hundred–plus years.”

  “What, specifically, are they trying to do with the Norwegians?”

  “They’ve made a couple attempts, through a cutout—a wealthy Chinese hotel developer—to buy massive tracts of land up above the Arctic Circle. The developer claimed he wanted to build an ‘eco-resort.’ The government in Oslo saw through the ruse and purchased the land itself, shutting the sale to China down. This, by the way, was similar to a play the Chinese launched to buy a Canadian mining company that operates in Canada’s Arctic. That attempt was shut down by the Canadian government.

  “Recently, Beijing has been involved in something else. The mayor of Kirkenes, a small, economically depressed Norwegian coastal town above the Arctic Circle, has been openly soliciting Chinese investment. Per Norwegian law, he’s not doing anything illegal. It’s a loophole of sorts and the CCP loves it.”

  “What does Kirkenes have that the Chinese would want to invest in?” he asked.

  Hayes took another sip of her coffee. “A port. With infrastructure. And a lot of room to grow. That’s where the Russians and all of the melting ice comes in.

  “As the largest trading partner for about two-thirds of the world’s countries, most of the items China imports and exports move via cargo ships. Due to the nature of the earth’s geography, those ships are forced to transit some very tense choke points.

  “The Chinese have always been very sensitive to the Strait of Malacca, which is heavily patrolled by the United States Navy, and the Strait of Hormuz, which is subject to tumultuous geopolitics.

  “If, at any point, one or both of these get locked down, the Chinese are screwed. Their economy begins withering almost instantly. Because of that, they’ve long been searching for an alternative. But none existed—until now.

  “The Northern Sea Route stretches along Russia’s Arctic coast, from Siberia all the way to the Barents Sea. With temperatures in the Arctic rising twice as fast as the world average, the ice has been turning to slush for longer and longer periods each year.

  “By using the Northern Sea Route, which they refer to as the Polar Silk Route, the Chinese would shorten the journey to Europe by forty percent. Instead of China to Rotterdam taking forty-eight days, for instance, it would only take twenty-eight. That’s a huge savings of time and money, not to mention avoiding the U.S. Navy and the all-too-unstable Middle East.”

  “Plus,” Harvath added, “avoiding black swan events like that container ship the length of the Empire State Building that wedged itself sideways in the Suez and completely shut it down.”

  “Exactly,” Hayes agreed.

  “But what’s the appeal of Kirkenes?”

  “It’s the first ice-free European port after exiting the Northern Sea Route. The mayor’s pitch to the Chinese is to have them help fund the improvements and make it their Arctic shipping hub. The cargo could be off-loaded in Kirkenes and transported via an “Arctic corridor,” which would include an as-yet-to-be-built high-speed rail system and an undersea tunnel to move the goods deeper into Europe.”

  “Sounds like they would make a fortune,” said Harvath. “Not to mention the amount of jobs and tax revenue something like that could create.”

  “The downside is that it would give Beijing the toehold they want, which, in our estimation, would eventually turn into a stranglehold. The State Department has lobbied hard against it. The Norwegians don’t like us poking our noses into it, but they’re a vital, strategic partner. We store a lot of U.S. military hardware in northern Norway in case of war. We can’t allow the Chinese to exert any undue influence over them.”

  “But if they’re telling the Ambassador not to run intel operations,” he said, “haven’t the Chinese already won?”

  “Not yet. There’s just one little problem with the proposed Arctic corridor.”

  “What’s that?”

  “Are you familiar with who the Sámi people are?”

  He was more than familiar with who the Sámi were. They inhabited the northern regions of Norway, Sweden, and Finland, as well as the Kola Peninsula, where several of them had helped save his life when he was being pursued by Russian mercenaries. They were brave, tough, good people. He nodded.

  “The corridor,” she went on, “would run straight through their reindeer grazing lands. Those lands are protected in perpetuity. They cannot be violated without their consent.

  “Beijing, of course, reverted to what it always does when it can’t use force: It tried to buy the Sámi off.”

  “Which I’m positive didn’t work,” he said.

  “No, it didn’t. In fact, the Sámi were deeply offended, in particular because it came on the heels of a pretty bad rumor.”

  “What rumor?”

  “That the Chinese had been attempting to develop a highly pathogenic form of chronic wasting disease aimed at the Sámi reindeer. When they were unsuccessful, they decided to offer bribes.”

  “That sounds like something the Chinese might try—especially if they thought they could get away with it. Is there any truth to it?” he asked.

  “Nothing that we’ve picked up.”

  “It’s a good piece of disinformation, though. Whoever started it should get a medal.”

  “For the moment, what matters is that the deal is in limbo. The players are searching for a work-around, but it doesn’t look promising,” she replied. “Which means we can focus full-time on your ghost.”

  “I thought the Ambassador pulled the plug on all things China.”

  “He only said CIA couldn’t run ops. He never said anything about supporting someone else’s.”

  “Meaning me.”

  “Meaning The Carlton Group. They’ve been given the green light on this. From what I hear, you’ve been given an ultimatum. It sounds like your time card back home has accumulated a bit of dust.”

  “I’ve been captivated by Norway’s scenic beauty,” he responded.

  She chuckled. “I’m well aware of what Norwegian beauty has you captivated.”

  Hayes was part of their circle. She had been out to the cottage for cookouts, as well as multiple dinner parties at Sølvi’s apartment. He was counting on her to make sure he didn’t get banned from the country. “Are you sure you can take care of Astrid Jensen for me?”

  “Absolutely.”

  “Then I’m in.”

  “Good,” she said. Waking her laptop, she adjusted the screen so he could see it. “Now let me take you through what we uncovered on our ghost.”

  CHAPTER 10

  MONTAGE RESORT

  LAGUNA BEACH, CALIFORNIA

  Dennis Wo had made it clear that money wasn’t an object. He wanted his fixer in Southern California ASAP and had told Spencer Baldwin to charter the first private jet he could find.

  Wanting to be true to the “spirit” of the agreement, Baldwin had hopped onto the website of a charter company he had used in the past and then clicked on the tab for its most luxurious aircraft. From there, he had selected a Bombardier Global 7500. With its fourteen-passenger capacity and over sixt
een hours of flight time before refueling, it had been more than up to the task of getting him from D.C. to the West Coast.

  At such a high price point, catering was included, and he had opted for two dozen fresh oysters and a gigantic Maine lobster, along with two spectacular bottles of ice-cold Chablis. His wife, who hated flying, had given up telling him that he drank his red wines too warm and his white wines too cold.

  It was a weird thing to criticize your spouse over. What did she care how he liked his wines? Complaining that he spent far too much on wines would have been more legitimate, but that’s where they were at this point. No matter what he did, she wasn’t happy with it. The fact that they had recently been on the verge of filing for bankruptcy had only made things worse.

  Yet the fact that he had landed such a whale of a client in Dennis Wo, and had turned their financial situation completely around, hadn’t made things any better. Somewhere a line had been crossed and she wasn’t willing to come back over it.

  To be honest, he didn’t care anymore. Overweight, with hypertension, and pushing sixty, he only had so many good years left. He might as well make the most of them. And flying like royalty was a hell of a way to do it.

  After dinner and drinks in the main cabin, he retired to the entertainment suite to watch some cable news before lying down for an hour in the master bedroom.

  As they touched down in Southern California, he felt better rested and more energized than when they had left D.C. Funny, he mused, how luxury travel could do that. This was definitely the good life and he wanted more of it. Much more.

  Waiting for him on the tarmac was a chauffeur and a glossy black Mercedes sedan. Rush hour was over and at this time of evening the ride wouldn’t take long.

  He relaxed in back, checking emails and scrolling through the texts on his phone. Twenty minutes later, they arrived at their destination.

  The hotel was the pinnacle of elegance. Every space, from the splendidly planted grounds to the sumptuously decorated rooms, was a feast for the eyes. Baldwin had stayed at the hotel years ago for a series of meetings with wealthy Southern California donors. It was one of the most memorable weekends of his life. He was glad to be back—even if he wasn’t staying long.