Extinction Level Event

by Jose Pino Johansson

05- A CAN OF WORMS

  One week after his meeting with the Secretariat in New York Manjak found himself working long hours, as usual, late into the night. It was 7:48pm and he didn't expect to be out for another two. The last two hours he was trying to get support from the other agencies for two FAO aid workers kidnapped in Yemen. Dispersing food sometimes became a dicey situation, especially in areas where bands of bandits roamed about who thought of the food-bearing workers as invading infidels. People disappeared. Then it is up to Manjak to deal with the ensuing media blitz, the interrogation-style conferences, the accusing politicians, and the negative press coverage. Not to mention the actual work of trying either negotiate for their release or bring it about more forcefully.

  In most cases the kidnappers would demand ransom, but to avoid larger and more lethal consequences the kidnapped would be released before the set expiration date. Manjak was hoping this would be another one of those cases, but just in case he wanted to have some sort of special forces team ready to extract his assessment workers if necessary. Better to speak softly, and carry a big stick. Ironic that Roosevelts' words could be applied to situations like these. In addition to the UN response, the home country's embassy of the kidnapped victims would also try to establish contact with the kidnappers to make terms. Which was usually a harder task that it sounded since the kidnappers would take their victims, and being in Yemen, would likely try to flee into the deep desert. There the FAO and foreign embassies would have to wait until the kidnappers got in contact with them, which was usually through means other than an easily-traceable cell phone. In this case, Yemen is dangerously close to Somalia, which despite years of attempted recovery and efforts by international navies to cleanse of pirates, drug runners, and insurgents is still one of the world's most notorious hotspots.

  Manjak looks out at the hundreds of yellow and red lights denoting evening traffic passing along the Via di Caracalla's twin lanes. Since it is a Friday, that probably meant that his two kids would be out with their friends socializing at the movies or some nightclub. As long as they were back by 1 Manjak didn't have a problem with it. This rule, which he had made, also allowed him to work until ten without hurry. Sofia wasn't in Rome. She had gone to Mexico to investigate some new soil development that had occurred there. he wasn't sure what "new soil development" meant but the latest reports from the Mexican government hinted that soil had started to show signs of decay. Some type of chemical spill they don't want anyone to know about? Manjak wondered. Governments often try to keep accidents and spills from being made public until the last minute, since they lose prestige both at home and abroad if they are seen as incapable of mitigating and controlling a problem.

  Prestige is, in addition to being a concern for governments, a natural concern for Manjak as well. Getting the two aid workers back from Yemen within the week should help the FAO and the United Nations save some face, which is exactly what the kidnappers are looking to discard. If the FAO loses face to little, puny incidents like these then how will it be trusted to react in larger, more reactive, and more volatile situations? These are the consideration that Manjak must take into account as he threads his line so very carefully. Bao has it easy. We appoint her, she takes control and responsibility for the organization. All the WFP does is rapid-response. Logistics is difficult and timing is crucial, but ultimately they don't have to deal with long term consequences. So far so good, though, since they've got a far better reputation than we do. Kudos to Bao. Manjak knows that despite the WFPs job is more difficult than he gives Bao credit for. Oftentimes the logistics of getting to food to the recipients is very hard and demanding; while donations and financial aid is oftentimes a rarer delicacy.

  Manjak's phone rings. As it is past 7:00pm Maria is not there to answer for him, prompting him to answer it himself. "Manjak, Deputy Director FAO speaking." It doesn't take long to recognize the all-too familiar voice on the other side of the phone line. "Trip! I knew you'd still be up there. Where are the kids?" "They're out, honey. You know, as long as they're back by one." "They'd better be back by one. They're not even eighteen yet." "Listen, honey, we've done this drill a thousand times. They know how to handle themselves." "I know, its just. . . ". A pause. Sofia sighs over the line, before continuing. "How long are you going to be there?" "At least til 9:30, you heard about that thing in Yemen haven't you? I'm here trying to coordinate a rescue for the poor pickles who happened to fall into the apple cider." "You mean fly in the venus fly-trap." laughs Sofia. "Whatever." Sometimes only the two of them understood their inside jokes, but the venus fly-trap was an old, and intimate, one. "You're calling me at this time to talk about botany?" Laughs. "Specifically, botany in Mexico?" Sofia's light laugh over the line instantly breaks off. "That's what I wanted to tell you, Trip. The botany in Mexico. This isn't a joke." Trip recognizes her voice-over into business-mode, even over the line. He checks his watch, realizing that its only 11am across the Atlantic on the Mexican western coast right now. "Serious? So this is about the soil changes, environmental disaster or whatever that's happening in what, Baja California? Where are you right now?" "I'm in Ensenada. This started about six days ago, but its already spread throughout all of Baja and even Caborca and Hermosilla south of Arizona. I don't know how long the government can keep it quiet and continue with the ludicrous story of an oil pipeline spill." "They're saying its an oil spill?" "Actually, natural gas. It’s a natural gas pipeline from Hermosilla to Naco. That's not the point. Another rumor amongst the officials here is that its some sort of run-off herbicide from the US. They say it originated in California, and that somehow the run-off from the herbicide is affecting the environment." "Affecting the environment? What do you mean by that?" Trip wondered why Sofia was beating around the bush. "Its killing the earthworms, Trip. Its killing the earthworms." The last words coming from Sofia's mouth as a silent curse. "Killing the earthworms? That's the craziest thing I've ever heard!! Just earthworms or everything it comes into contact with? How's it spreading?" Trip almost yells the last line into the phone as excitement, awe, and a weird feeling in his stomach creep into his voice. "No. I don't understand how either, yet. But whatever the cause the earthworms are dying, every single species, and the phenomenon is spreading. We also know that California has the same problem. The US authorities are referring to it as a 'worm epizootic'".

  "Worm epizootic that is ridiculous?!!", Manjak slumps back in his chair, completely taken aback by the mind-wracking news.

  Never in his life, let alone his career, had he thought to come face-to-face with as odd a phenomenon as the one his wife had just described to him over the phone. If it wasn't for her tone of voice with which he was so familiar with, he would have thought of the entire conversation as one giant prank played on him. Quickly composing from the aftershock, Manjak realizes he needs details. "How are the Mexicans taking this?" "Their story won't hold, but they're going to have to admit it's a cross-border problem from a herbicide or some environmental contaminant. The place is rather arid here in the north, but since it is spreading it could harm the southern regions of the country if it gets that far. That would be catastrophic to the tropical forests that rely on the rich soil layer to support their wildlife. And of course here in Hermosilla their pacific coastline is also quite green." "That sounds pretty bad.", Manjak thinks for a minute. "You said it started in northern, American California. Has it spread into the central valley, there's like a billion dollars worth of agriculture in that area?" "Yes, they're saying that it was first recorded in that area over a week ago. Then it spread down to here. The US authorities, EPA, USDA, they've all put quarantine measures to prevent cargo from going in and out in California. Mostly agricultural, dairy, any type of biological products. But that didn't stop it from coming into Mexico. And the authorities here are having more problems with the quarantine that in the US, although they're diverting army units and so forth." "They're putting the army to enforce quarantine?! Wow. I thought they would already have their hands full with the
drug lords." "That's why its becoming more complicated. How much of an impact will this have on their local ecosystems?" ,asks Sofia.

  "It's not so much their ecosystems as their farms." Manjak started wondering how well farmers in California would do if suddenly asked to grow crops without the help of their favorite wildlife pets. "What happens if the farms don't get their soil recycled as they should? Food quality will go down, per hectare production might decrease? Who knows? Have you spoken with a wormologist?" "Not yet. Representing the FAO I kind of get a back-seat to events. The state agencies have priority, mostly trying to contain the situation. Although there is a well-known worm specialist working with the USDA, though. Yes; his name is Gonzalo Rodriguez, from UCLA." Manjak taps his desk with his fingers as he reaches for a pencil and paper. "Gonzalo Rodriguez? I need to get in touch with this guy." "Sure, I think you should too." Sofia takes a deep breath. "You're taking this fairly well. Most people were shocked first time they heard it. I know I was." "Trust me honey, deep down I'm doing hola-hoops. Just stay safe, if any trouble happens. I don't think we've ever encountered a problem like this."

  "Come on Trip, you really think this is that bad? We are working to contain it, you know. It's only a few small cities." Trip answers. "Sofie, a few small cities? We're talking about LA here. And Guadalajara, Phoenix, aren't that far off. If you don't stop it now, we could be seeing it hit those cities in a week, at the rate you said its spreading. Yeah, I think this could be worse than it looks now."

  "Ok. I'll be careful, but so far nothing other than a re-diversion of the army has occurred here. Kisses." "Kisses". Buzzzzz. The phone hangs up, leaving Manjak to sort through the underlying messages of the conversation. Manjak, being one who is accustomed to planning agricultural strategies that span for two, five, or twenty years immediately starts making up various scenarios in his head, some of them bad and some worse. Ok, so what happens if all of North America gets inflicted with this thing, somehow? Oh God, what happens if their agricultural output, including that of California, the Midwest, the Breadbasket states, gets cut in half within six months? They're going to be screaming for outside food until they find a way to find a way to increase agricultural output relying less on the soil and more on the qualities of the plants themselves. More arable land taken, more modified crops used. And possibly months or even a year of food shortage. Damn.

  Manjak spends the rest of the evening working on the Yemeni hostage problem, even though he knows he kept thinking about everything that Sofia had told him. Realizing that the problem in the Americas might soon -will soon!- require his full attention and possibly many night hours, Trip Manjak decides to retire at 9:25pm. He exits the mostly-vacant headquarters and makes his way to the subway station along Rome's crowded streets. Heading home to his apartment on the Rome metro he decides to drop by the supermarket to buy food. Like many venues in Rome on a Friday night, the supermarket is open. Going in through the sliding doors Manjak walks straight to the canned food aisle and makes sure that he buys a large amount.

  Ensenada, Mexico

  A week after McCarthy's arrival in Mexico he finds himself still stuck in Ensenada, in the middle of a growing ecological problem, increasingly somber and alarmed population, and a full scale state-wide alert. In the last seven days a flood of reports by the biologists and other scientists gathered in Ensenada told the authorities in the State of Baja California that they were no longer the only ones to experience worm shortages. Police, businessmen, local residents, drug dealers, and many others in the neighboring states of Baja California Sur to the south; Sonora and Chihuahua to the east, and Sinaloa to the southeast all reported to their local governments the now-common problem of earthworm deaths. The local governments had no clue what to do and subsequently contacted the Federal government in Mexico City, a move supported by McCarthy, Rodriguez, and even the UN Representative Sofia Flores Manjak. Authorities in Baja California had managed to keep McCarthy and Rodriguez from leaving their state, stating that the evidence of contamination in the other states was irrefutable based on McCarthy's and Rodriguez's reports from Los Angeles.

  Authorities from the Federal District would arrive soon in Ensenada to talk to the gathered scientists to ask them for advice in dealing with the situation. McCarthy advocated a very simple strategy- he told them to quarantine all areas afflicted with the worm contagion and have no movement of goods, people, or any objects between the outside world and the affected areas. That strategy, despite the presence of police and paramilitary police, did not work out. Now the local governments had no clue what to do, but were aware of the increasing sense of insecurity amongst the local population, especially in Ensenada where the outbreak was first detected a week ago. Here it was obvious the worm deaths were serious, living worms were a rarity in the soil at this point, and thousands of dead ones are scattered in parks, alongside gardens, roads, and surrounding forests. The government continued to run with the "environmental hazard contamination" storyline, leading McCarthy amongst others to wonder how long they were going to keep the cover. They'll keep it as long as the US keeps saying that its a herbicide and not a virus.

  McCarthy is left in a trailer by the site of the original contamination scene, working alongside two GIS specialists putting together every reported outbreak onto a Geographic Information System. Having worked with GIS before, and having nothing else to do at the moment, McCarthy busies himself helping plot the extent of the worm epizootic onto a detailed two-dimensional map of Mexico. The ARCGIS system can show details ranging from rivers and interstate political borders to more obscure facts such as street names and forest type. Different types of soils and terrain are shaded in different colors to give the viewer information about the worms' environment. The two GIS technicians busy themselves imputing shades of red over areas affected by the epizootic. McCarthy notices the bright red patches over Ensenada, Tijuana, Mexicali, and other major cities of the Northwest. The bright red covers all the area in-between and surrounding the cities, only dissipating to lighter shades around Ciudad Obregon in before disappearing completely a hundred miles from Mazatlan on the Western coastline.

  McCarthy opens the trailer door, heading outside for a breath of fresh air. He walks from the camp of several trailers and vehicles to the sidewalks, walking past small Spanish townhouses along Ensenada's narrow street lined by three-story row houses.

  Coming along a park after passing a pair of police officers, McCarthy's vision of fresh air is abruptly transformed into a nightmarish sensation of pungent decay. The corpses of dead worms shoveled into heaps in the dirt along the side of the small park creates an aroma typical of putrified flesh. The authorities, not knowing what to do with the worms coming out of their burrows, ordered city workers to shovel them into piles away from pedestrian traffic. This left piles up to a foot high of worms in some areas, slowly decomposing while releasing a petrifying odor to passerby. The cleanup crews, hastily put together in response by the city, had piled the worms into heaps off the roads and then left them there. They were supposed to be removed, but that still yet to be done. Deciding that the air had rapidly lost its appeal, McCarthy turned away from the park, continued along a few more roads, and made a turn back towards the camp trailers. We need to tell them to remove these decaying critters quickly, and get rid of them in a proper area.

  McCarthy enters a local store to grab a bite before returning to the GIS lab. After ordering a sandwich he waits for it to be heated, he spots a stand with a local newspaper by the door and walks over to take a copy. Picking up the newspaper to scan it, the ding-dong of the door chime next to him prompts McCarthy to look up from the day's headlines. Rodriguez's face leers back at him, a knowing smile painted across his face. "So, McCarthy, now you can read en Español? You never told me, why am I always translating every time we come to a government meeting?" Rodriguez asks humorously. "Did you really need to know? It was great having a free translator tag along all the time. Don't you agree?", asks McCarthy rhetoricall
y. "You here for a lunch as well?" "Yes". "Good. What news is there from Mexico? Anything from LA?" "Nothing yet. How is the GIS updating going?" "Good. Its going fine. By the way, did you tell the Mayor that the cleanup here isn't complete? They still have worms lying around in piles, which stink. Not to mention this is a safety hazard having that compost rot in plain sight." Rodriguez pauses for a moment. "I did tell them to clean up. They've- for that matter, we've also been helping them to clean up when they burrow out of the ground. They should know keeping them outside is an invite to carrion birds, stray animals, and the like. Not to mention being unpleasant." "We should tell them again, and stress it this time. The worms can't simply be left outside, regardless if they are out of the way". "You know, there are other detritivores around that could decompose them. Too bad that will take a really long time, by which we will probably be dealing with a human-affecting affliction in addition to an earthworm one." "Exactly my point. Hey, where's his sandwich?", McCarthy looks around as the two cashiers prepare Rodriguez's lunch. "You won't get any attention that way", remarks Rodriguez as he forwards his cash to the cashier. The two men take their sandwiches outside and sit down on the store's cafe-style outdoor chairs.

  McCarthy takes a big bite out of his turkey-lettuce-tomato taco-like sandwich before remarking, "Its been almost ten days since we got our first call, and so far we have barely gotten any leads to its origins. At this rate, the epizootic will probably reach New York before we get any clues to its history. Have you ever encountered anything like this before?"

  "Never.", Rodriguez replies, "This is something entirely new, never seen before. It is not parasitic, none of the worms we have seen have show symptoms of mites, fungi, any type of parasite. I've never ever heard, read, or seen a virus that attacks worms so quickly and so fatally. Total devastation, as I have said before. As I see it, the only thing we can do now is quarantine, hope that this slows down the spread, and pray that Dr. Krishnan and everyone else LaJoy has working in the lab can find some an aerosol-based antidote quickly enough. Although, there is something else that should be factored in, which I have already told LaJoy." "What is that?", asks McCarthy. "Well", starts Rodriguez, "this virus attacking the worms seems to be similar to something like Ebola or Tuberculosis in terms of its potency and rate of spread. I'm counting on this epizootic spreading to areas, such as the Chihuahuan desert, where the natural worm population is very low. Relatively speaking, the amount of earthworms per square meter can range from 1 to 10,000. You follow?" "If I were to guess, you advised the government to quarantine sporadically until the epizootic reaches the desert. Now you're assuming that, due to its own extremely virulent nature, this epizootic will kill itself when it kills off the earthworm population too quickly to continue sustaining itself". "Yes. Some deep deserts have less than 1 earthworm per square meter, if they all die quickly enough there won't be much of a population left to sustain the virus. The virus, without a living host population present to continue sustaining it, should quickly die off".

  "That's basically how we’ve managed to avoid having Ebola outbreaks. I don't know if you remember, but I remember reading about several outbreaks in 2007 in Congo. Of course, quarantine measures were also used to make sure it didn't spread.", muses McCarthy, "you already proposed this plan to LaJoy?" "Yes I did", replies the field biologist, "him first, and then the authorities in Mexico City. They probably know that they have way too many stresses right now to be dealing with this crisis, they seemed very much willing to sit this one out and let it abate. While they have enough biologists, environmentalists, and troops to enforce a quarantine zone right now, they hardly have adequate scientific, intellectual, or financial resources to start looking for ways to combat this thing. At least not right now." McCarthy agrees, "They'll never say it, but I'm sure they'll take your idea to heart, put up a quarantine based adjacent to the desert cities and wait it out, maybe another week or two at the most. If it works it works. If it doesn't work, they're hoping we develop a working response in that time." "You could say that's that". Rodriguez finishes lunch, cleaning up his plate and napkin and disposing of them in the trash bin. "You ready to go?" "Sure. I need to get back to those maps". The two men leave the cafe, walking at a fast pace back to the trailer camp set up by the city of Ensenada.

  "When do you think the maps will be ready?" ,asks Rodriguez as they walk uphill. "Should be ready in about another three hours. Then we'll hand them over to the Feds in Mexico and it'll probably be posted on their website within an hour." "Hopefully people will start getting the picture." "Yeah. No movement of worms, no soil movement, no fed of any kind. People still think its an accident, so that should keep them cooperating." "So we hope" ,replies Gonzalo. After a short walk uphill the two walk another three hundred meters across three streets before arriving at the scientists' and diplomats' temporary refuge.

  LA, USDA Office

  At the USDA headquarters on the West Coast, LaJoy, recently promoted thanks to the last two weeks events, hurries over to his desk after hearing his phone ring for the hundredth time that day. Stressed out, tired of hearing contradictory reports from across the state, sick of coffee after being a addict for twenty years, and in need of a vacation after the past week, LaJoy is not in the mood for more phone calls. Having spoken to the governor of California, the LAPD, and even wildlife experts and ecologists at the San Diego zoo in the past 24 hours, LaJoy briefly considers putting the call on hold and getting back to the caller later. However, the screen above the phone reads "Secretary of Agriculture", precluding any attempts of ignoring the phone call and claiming ignorance later. LaJoy picks up the receiver and identifies himself yet again.

  "Onassis here. I think the situation warrants FEMA's attention. This is beyond our ability to control. I've advised Homeland Security to get FEMA mobilized and head over there with everything they've got." "We will need the Governor’s permission for FEMA to enter the state. Have you spoken to him?”

  “Yesterday evening. I think you should explain the situation, and tell him that I personally recommend we need to take this to a higher level. Remind him that we are already handling many aspects of the investigation and have started immunology research on our own in concurrence with UCLA and CBEID labs.” “Yes, sir. What if he doesn’t want FEMA here in his state, and does not want to declare a state of emergency?” “Try to convince him as best you can. He’s seen as much of the evidence as we have. Considering that the outbreak has spread to Nevada and Arizona as well, I figure it is only a matter of time before other states start to declare emergency states as well. We need to cut this out now. FEMA will bring in extra communications equipment, computers, satellite uplink to all of our teams combing the countryside right now." LaJoy thinks it through, glad that FEMA could be involved but starting to question the necessity of advising the governor to involve them. FEMA is made for emergencies like hurricanes, flooding, and earthquakes, not Cretaceous-era extinctions. "Sir, I assume FEMA will also be bringing in their Emergency Medical Response Teams; even if they are trained to aid human victims of biological and chemical agents. So far we have no human victims, only invertebrates." "True LaJoy, but I don't want to take any chances. If this can affect humans, FEMA can help keep people away from infected areas." "I see, sir. How are the Mexicans dealing with this?", asks Peter offhandedly. “They are doing worse than we are, that’s all I know at the moment. Talk to the Governor for me, will you?” “Very well.” “Good. Keep in touch.” Onassis’s line cuts off, leaving LaJoy to phone the Governor of California for the eleventh time that week. The buzzing produced by the waiting machine quickly dies off after several electronic clicks, bringing LaJoy’s line directly to the Governor’s office without phone-line hassling. This privilege, naturally, only began a week ago.

  The other side picks up. “Morning sir, its LaJoy from USDA LA again. I’ve been in contact with USDA in Washington, reviewing the situation as it develops and updating your office. It is the recommendation of the USDA that we declare
a state of emergency at this point, sir. This way we can get FEMA assistance, and be able to deal with other problems as well more efficiently.” “State of Emergency? LaJoy, I know you are doing your job well so far but is this your idea of a joke? I see no reason for me to declare a state of emergency. There is no natural disaster, no rioting, no real emergency for me to deal with. If I do this, people will become fearful, start to panic; if for no other reason than there is a state of emergency. Then I will have to explain why we have one, which will be thrashed by the legislature. . . this is ticklish business that I think, we have no reason for executing.” “True, sir, but FEMA has resources that we don’t. Federal funds, Emergency Medical Teams to deal with human victims -” “Human victims? I remember you specifically telling me that the virus you have identified only harms worms? Now you’re saying that this is transmissible to humans?!” “No, sir. Well, not exactly. Dr. Krishnan and his team are fairly confident that this is a very specific virus that we’re dealing with- unless a random mutation would occur, allowing it to be zoonotic- transmissible from animals to humans.” “You should have told me this before. But you said that this is very, very unlikely. Under these circumstances, only the invertebrates are dying. As long as people, citizens of this state are not involved, I’m not declaring any emergency. This is merely an inconvenient long-term problem, one that your scientists should find a solution to given enough time. Don’t ask me to make a state of emergency; . . . the people of California don’t need one right now.” “But when we start having effects of soil degradation. . . –“ “When that happens, I’ll make a note of it.”, snaps the Governor back, “Make sure that quarantine zone of yours sees to it that this doesn’t spread, and that some way of stopping this virus is found soon.” “We’re doing our best” “Great. Keep me posted then.” With that, the Governor hangs up, leaving LaJoy to think through the short conversation. He really needs to change his mind, we’ll need FEMA here sooner or later and I’d rather have them here sooner. LaJoy realizes that, despite seriousness of the situation to an environmental expert, the Governor as a politician may not see the longer term implications. He expects a quick fix, and ability to maintain political normalcy without sacrificing expediency. LaJoy decides to call Secretary Onassis back and tell him that for now, California will continue to run in a “state of normalcy”.