The Wizard and the Prophet2

by Charles C. Mann

  Meat consumption: Author’s interviews, email, Walter Falcon, Joel Bourne, Michael Pollan; Vranken et al. 2014; Rivers Cole and McCoskey 2013 (decrease with affluence); Smil 2013 (10 to 40%, 133). Meat production from FAOSTAT (faostat.fao.org).

  Widely cited study: Ray et al. 2013, 2012. See also Grassini et al. 2013; Jeon et al. 2011:1; Dawe 2008; Hibberd et al. 2008:228.

  Actual/potential yields: I simplify the formulation in Ittersum et al. 2013.

  Food waste (footnote): Bellemare et al. 2017; Gustavsson et al. 2013.

  Lack of arable land, inability to expand irrigation: Author’s interviews, IFPRI, CIMMYT, IRRI; United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization 2013:10; Murchie et al. 2009:533; Mann 2007.

  Early atmosphere: Kasting 2014; Lyons et al. 2014. See also Lane 2002, chap. 3.

  Ordinary photosynthesis: Ordinary photosynthesis is known as C3, after another molecule, this one with three carbon atoms.

  C4 project: Author’s interviews, Jane Langdale, Paul Quick, Peter Westhoff, Thomas Brutnell, John Sheehy, Julian Hibberd. Project overviews include Wang et al. 2016; Furbank et al. 2015.

  Audacity of project: Surridge 2002:576.

  Shotgunning genes and CRISPR: Hall 2016; Specter 2015 (fine popular accounts of CRISPR); Vain et al. 1995 (shotgunning cereals); Klein et al. 1987 (invention of technique). Before CRISPR, the rice project used a different method, infecting plants with Agrobacterium, a bacterium that inserts genes from a plasmid (a free-floating DNA-containing body, like a chloroplast, in the cell) into the DNA of a plant cell. The genes are switched on and the plant cell produce nutrients for the bacterium. By adding genes to the plasmid, geneticists can use this mechanism to insert new genetic information into plant cells. Overall, though, this method seems to have been less common than shotgunning.

  Possibilities: Jez et al. 2016.

  Other ways to improve photosynthesis (footnote): Taylor and Long 2017; Pignon et al. 2017; Krondijk et al. 2016. My thanks to Ruth DeFries for drawing my attention to this work.

  Vandalism and test: Hall 1987; Maugh 1987a, b; “Genetic Tests to Proceed in Face of Protest,” San Bernardino County Sun, 15 Apr 1987.

  Asilomar conference and regulations: Berg et al. 1975; Berg and Singer 1995; Frederickson 1991:274–83, 293–98 (“should not,” 282).

  Lack of diversity: Vettel 2006:220–22 (“political motivation”); Frederickson 1991:293–98 (participant list). Reporters attended only after legal threats from the Washington Post.

  Ice-minus controversy: Author’s attendance at Rifkin lectures; Bratspies 2007:109–11; Thompson 1989 (“the Boys”); Hall 1987 (“human beings,” 134); Joyce 1985; Complaint, Foundation on Economic Trends v. Heckler, 14 Sep 1983, in Biotechnology Law Report 2:194–203 [1983] (“mutant bacteria”, ¶19); Lindow et al. 1982. Natural “ice-minus” P. syringae exist, but they spontaneously revert to the common form. The Berkeley researchers made the change irreversible by removing part of the gene that promotes ice nucleation.

  Scientific studies, GMO bans: See Appendix B and the online database of GMO bans at the Borlaug-founded International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications (www.isaaa.org).

  Public fears: Pew Research Center 2015, chap. 3; Gaskell et al. 2006; Blizzard 2003; Hall 1987 (“about it”).

  Borlaug’s claims for GMOs: See, e.g., Borlaug 2004.

  Nichols farm: Author’s interviews, visits. Nichols’s farm is certified as sustainable, because the certification is required to sell at some Chicago markets.

  Organic/conventional yield comparisons: Hossard et al. 2016 (“Maize yields are on average 24% higher for tested low-input [and conventional] relative to organic…Wheat yields are on average 43% higher for tested low-input relative [or conventional] to organic”); Kniss et al. 2016 (corrected version: “across all crops and all states, organic yield averaged 67% of conventional yield”); Ponisio et al. 2015 (“organic yields are…19.2% [±3.7%] lower than conventional yields”); de Ponti et al. 2012 (“organic yields of individual crops are on average 80% of conventional yields”); Seufert et al. 2012 (“overall, organic yields are typically lower than conventional yields” [5–34% lower depending on “system and site characteristics”]); Badgley et al. 2007 (“the average yield ratio (organic : non-organic) of different food categories .. was slightly <1.0 [8.6%] for studies in the developed world and >1.0 for studies in the developing world”). See the critiques in Kirchmann et al. 2016; Kremen and Miles 2012; Connor 2008. My discussion is scribbled in the margins of Pollan 2007:176–84. Brecht’s line: Erst kommt das Fressen, dann kommt die Moral. Engels anticipated these arguments, famously, in chap. 9 of his Dialectics of Nature.

  Annuals vs. perennials: González-Paleo et al. 2016; Smaje 2015; Crews and DeHaan 2015; Cox et al. 2006. Perennial grasses typically have evolved better protective measures against pests and diseases (pathogens that afflict annuals seldom infect their perennial relatives). But most also ripen asynchronously, making harvest difficult.

  Domesticating wheatgrass: Zhang et al. 2016, Fig. 1; Lubofsky 2016; Scheinost et al. 2001; Wagoner and Schaeffer 1990; Lowdermilk and Chall 1969:232–33 (U.S. introduction).

  Wheat-wheatgrass hybrids: Author’s interviews, Jones, Curwen-McAdams; Curwen-McAdams and Jones 2017; Curwen-McAdams et al. 2016 (T. aaseae); Hayes et al. 2012; Larkin and Newell 2014; Wagoner and Schaeffer 1990; Tsitsin and Lubimova 1959.

  Cassava: Author’s interviews, emails: Botoni, Larwanou, Wenceslau Teixiera, Susanna Hecht. Production data from FAOSTAT; USDA (2016 crop production summary); Howeler ed. 2011.

  Trees: See, e.g., Dey 1995 (acorns); Garrett et al 1991 (walnuts); Robinson and Lakso 1991 (apples). Because tree crops exist in many cultivars and are grown with many different cropping regimes, production numbers vary tremendously. Overall temperate-zone tree-crop production data is available at the USDA website.

  Deprecating agriculture: Author’s conversations, James Boyce, Vern Ruttan, Daron Acemoglu; Cullather 2010:146–48; Boulding 1963, 1944.

  Farm employment: Dmitri et al. 2005:2–5.

  Chapter Five: Water: Freshwater

  California tomatoes: USDA Economic Research Service, 2010, U.S. Tomato Statistics (92010), http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. See also overviews at www.ers.usda.gov.

  California water projects: A classic if polemical history is Reisner 1993, esp. 9–10, 194–97, 334–78, 499–500; see also Prud’homme 2012:240–51.

  Freshwater: Gleick and Palaniappan 2010:11155–56; Babkin 2003:13–16; Shiklomanov 2000, 1993 (water volumes, 13–14). About two-thirds of groundwater is saline (Gleick 1996).

  Human appropriation of water: McNeill 2001:119–21; Shiklomanov 2000, Tables 2,4; Postel et al. 1996: Fig. 2.

  Brazil and India: Figures from AQUASTAT (www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm).

  Flow and stock: I draw here on distinctions described by, among others, Malm (2016:38–42), Gleick and Palaniappan (2010), and Wrigley (2010:235). My thanks to Mark Plummer, Jim Boyce, Daron Acemoglu, and Mike Lynch for helping me with this section. For salmon, other factors must also be taken into account, like the number of salmon that die in the ocean before spawning. Still, the principle remains: catching a fish one spring does not reduce the fish supply the next.

  Lack of substitutability of water: My last line paraphrases a remark made to me by Oliver Hoedeman of Corporate Europe Observatory.

  Ogallala: Peterson et al. 2016 (flow, Fig. 6); Reisner 1993:435–55.

  Ruining aquifers: Hertzman 2017: Table 1; Sebben et al. 2015 (saltwater intrusion); Famiglietti 2014 (overview); European Environment Agency 2011: Chap. 8.

  Water shortages: Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2016.; Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007 (IWMI study); Shiklomanov and Balonishnikova 2003:359; Shiklomanov 2000. Along with IWMI, Shiklomanov, of the Russian State Hydrological Unit, is probably the most widely cited source of global water-demand projections.

  Water consumption: Figures from AQUASTAT (http://www.fao.org/nr/wat
er/aquastat/water_use/index.stm).

  Irrigation losses: Lankford 2012.

  Up to 50 percent higher: Leflaive et al. 2012:216; Amarasinghe and Smakhtin 2014 (esp. Table 1).

  Groundwater for irrigation: Siebert et al. 2010.

  Lowdermilks to Promised Land: Mané 2011:65; R. Miller 2003:56–57; Lowdermilk and Chall 1969, 2:314–16; Lowdermilk 1940:83–91. Promised Land: Exodus 23:31, Genesis 15:18–21. The first paragraph of this section rewrites Mané’s first paragraph.

  Lowdermilk’s life: Helms 1984; Lowdermilk and Chall 1969 (realization, 1:61–63; fleeing China, 1:100–108); Lowdermilk 1944:11–13 (dream of visiting Palestine).

  Decline of Mesopotamia: Lowdermilk and Chall 1969, 2:328–32 (“salty desolation,” 331); Lowdermilk 1948 (“radiant gold”), 1940:92–100 (“dirty place,” 96; “of civilization?” 97), 1939; Deuteronomy 4:45–49 (location), 8:7–9 (“and hills”); Psalms 104:16 (“full of sap”); Song of Solomon 5:15 (“the cedars”). All quotes from Revised King James Edition.

  Lowdermilk’s theory: Rook 1996:98–103 (“ ‘Allah’ ”); Lowdermilk 1944:53–65, 135–39 (“settled areas,” 136–37); 1942:9–10, 1939.

  Modern perspectives: Wilkinson and Rayne 2010; Hughes 1983; Wertime 1983.

  Absorptive capacity of Palestine: Siegel 2015:20–22; Alatout 2008b:367–74; Anglo-American Committee of Inquiry 1946, 1:185 (immigration tallies); United Kingdom 1939 (“Arab population”).

  Engineers vs. “plant men”: Lowdermilk and Chall 1969, 2:207, 218–19.

  Lowdermilk’s vision: Rook 1996:115–31, 139–42; Lowdermilk 1944 (“amazed,” “twenty-four countries,” 14; “our day,” 19; industries and electrification, 68–75, 85–87; “thriving communities,” “splendid opportunity,” 121; “from Europe,” 122; “a million,” 124; Jordan plan, 121–28; “artificial lakes,” 139–40).

  Lowdermilk’s influence: Siegel 2015:35–41; Alatout 2008b:379–82; Rook 1996: 142–52, 159–62; Lowdermilk and Chall 1969, 2:543–44; Anglo-American Committee of Inquiry 1946, 1:411–14 (British rejection).

  National Water Carrier: Author’s visit; Siegel 2015:39–40 (Panama Canal); Cohen 2008; Alatout 2008a. Other information from Mekorot website (www.mekorot.co.il).

  Influences on Howard: Marx 1909, esp. 3:945 (“rift”); Kropotkin 1901 (1898); Morris 1914 (1881); Liebig 1859:176–79 (“be collected”). Howard may have read Hugo.

  Howard: Clark 2003; Beevers 1988; Evans 1997 (1989):111–13 (aqueduct); Howard 1898 (“new civilization,” 10; water plans, 153–67); Howard 1902.

  Howard and Tel Aviv: Katz 1994.

  Tel Aviv wastewater: Author’s interview, Oded Fixler; Siegel 2015:78–85; United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia and Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe 2013; Loftus 2011; Aharoni et al. 2010.

  Hard vs. soft path: Brooks et al. 2010 (“sustainable future,” 337); Brooks et al. eds. 2009; Brooks and Holtz 2009; Brandes and Brooks 2007 (“and attitudes,” 2); Gleick 2003 (“both paths,” 1527); 2002; 2000 (“freshwater runoff,” 128); 1998; Brooks 1993.

  Israeli soft-path: Author’s interviews, Noam Weisbrod, Ittai Gavrieli, Yoseph Yechieli. Siegel 2015:11–12, 46–50, chaps. 4–5 (drip irrigation, water reuse).

  Red-Dead canal: Author’s interviews, Oded Fixler, Nobil Zoubi, Munqeth Mehyar; Donnelly 2014. Government of Jordan 2014; World Bank 2013.

  Israel hard-soft conflict: Author’s visit, interviews, Siegel 2015: 116, Berck and Lipow 2012 (1995):140

  Urban growth, water failures: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects (https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/); United Nations Human Settlements Programme 2016: Table E.2.

  Fecklessness: Kunkel Water Efficiency Consulting 2017 (Pennsylvania); Milman and Glenza 2016 (30 cities); Water Integrity Network 2016 (overpumped aquifers, 39; KwaZulu, 64; Lixil Group 2016 (India, see web addendum “Findings”); Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft 2015 (France); Siegel 2012:190–95 (Israel/Palestine).

  Veolia in Pudong and Liuzhou: Mann 2007; see also Prud’homme 2012:269–70.

  “pure economical”: Boulding 1964.

  Loeb’s career: Siegel 2015:119-21; Cohen and Glater 2010; Hasson 2010.

  Growth, potential of desalination: International Desalination Agency 2017:esp. 72–76; Goh et al. 2017; Delyannis and Belessiotis 2010; Delyannis 2005. Desalination plant numbers from International Desalination Agency website (idadesal.org).

  Almonds and alfalfa: Holthaus 2015.

  Carlsbad, California desalination, critiques: Author’s visits and interviews, San Diego Water County Authority; International Desalination gency 2017: 12–13, 42; Cooley and Ajami 2014; Cooley et al. 2006.

  Chapter Six: Fire: Energy

  Birth and rise of Pithole: Author’s visits, Pithole; Knickerbocker and Harper 2009:108–14 (population); Burgchardt 1989:78–82 (population); Darrah 1972, chap. 3 (bars and brothels, 34); Cone and Johns 1870:75–76; untitled description of Pithole, Boston Daily Advertiser, 24 Jul 1865; Viator 1865. Darrah is the classic history of Pithole. See also Crocus 1867. I am grateful to Kent Mathewson for accompanying me to Pithole and the Drake Well Museum.

  Pennsylvania as first oil patch: Earlier oil wells had been dug in Galicia and Azerbaijan (then controlled by Russia), but they didn’t lead to much for a while. Pennsylvania had the first modern wells—drilled by engines, as opposed to dug by hand, and encased in pipes to prevent flooding. And discoveries there led to the creation of today’s fossil-fuel industry (Vassilou 2009:195–96).

  Oil-Dorado and Petrolia: e.g., Cone and Johns 1870; “Fire in the Oil Regions,” NYT, 15 Feb 1866.

  Fire-fighting dredge, prostitute parade: Burgchardt 1989:80; “Crocus,” 1867:36-37.

  Decline and fall of Pithole: Darrah 1972:133–37 (oil wells stop producing), 178–82, 205–31 (281 people, 227; $4.37, 231); Philips 1886; Taylor 1884:14–18 passim.; “Deserted Villages,” Boston Daily Advertiser, 21 Oct 1878; Cone and Johns 1870: 82–84; “Story of a Once Famous City,” Wisconsin State Register, 26 Jun 1869; “Petroleum Matters,” Daily Cleveland Herald, 5 Sep 1865 (end of first Pithole well).

  Energy demand forecasts: BP 2015 (37% by 2035); IEA 2014b (37% by 2040); World Energy Council 2013 (61% by 2050); Larcher and Tarascon 2015 (100% by 2050).

  Carboniferous coal formation: Nelsen et al. 2016; : Martin 2013:392–96; Floudas et al. 2012; DiMichele et al. 2007.

  Early Chinese coal: Dodson et al. 2014.

  Early history of fossil fuels: Yergin 2008 (1991):7–9; Williams 2006, chap. 7 (deforestation); Richards 2005 (2003):194–95, 227–41; Freese 2004 (2003), chaps. 2–3.

  Early British coal: Freese 2004 (2003):21–42 (Nottingham, 24); Gimpel 1983 (1976):80–84; Braudel 1981 (1979):367–72.

  Increase in well-being post-1800: Clark 2007:1–16 (“remote ancestors,” 1 [emphasis added]) is a fine summary. Clark makes clear that prosperity was not equal and for all; Malm (2016) focuses on the human costs.

  Versailles: Williams 2006:164.

  Jefferson: Hailman 2006:219; Letter, Thomas Jefferson to Thomas Mann Randolph, 28 Nov 1796, in Oberg 2002:211.

  Transformative power of fossil fuels: Gallagher 2006:192–95; Lebergott 1976:100, 1993, Tables II.14 and II.15 (U.S. running water, central heating). Rybczynski (1986) discusses how new heating technologies helped create the modern expectation of a comfortable home; “portable climate”: Emerson 1860:74–75 (I have reversed the order of the sentences).

  Average U.S. car horsepower: http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/fetrends/1975–2014/420r14023a.pdf (Table 3.3.1).

  “Dregs”: Carll 1890:24.

  Shares of energy production: IEA 2015b:6.

  Abundance is problem, not scarcity: I am echoing arguments in Labban 2008:2 and Radkau 2008 (2002):251. Radkau discusses, fascinatingly, pre-industrial worries about what one might call “peak wood” (201–14).

  Carnegie’s lake of oil: Nasaw 2006:76–78; Carnegie 1920:138–39 (“would cease”).

  Standard Oil pessimism:
Yergin 2008 (1991):35–36; Chernow 2004 (1998):283–84 (“crazy?”). There was also a small but growing oil industry in Azerbaijan.

  Pennsylvania peak: Harper and Cozart 1992: Fig. 4.

  Beaumont: Yergin 2008 (1991):66–79; McLaurin 1902 (1896):459–63.

  Perception of vulnerability: See, e.g., Shuman 1914; “Liquid Fuels,” Chemical Trade Journal and Chemical Engineer, 8 Feb 1913 (“it is by no means certain that as the present fields become depleted new ones will be opened”); “Liquid Fuels for the Navy,” Chemical Trade Journal and Chemical Engineer, 29 March 1913 (“there is no immediate prospect of more plentiful [oil] supplies being found”); Thurston 1901 (“a time must come, and that within a few generations at most, when some other energy other than combustion of fuel must be relied upon,” 283). Clayton 2015: chap. 2 and DeNovo 1955 give further examples.

  Roosevelt at governors’ meeting: McGee 1909:3–12 (“the nation,” 3; “imminent exhaustion,” 6); Clayton 2015:39; Bergandi and Blandin 2012:113–15. The meeting, organized by pioneering forester Gifford Pinchot, was attended by 36 governors.

  Repeated warnings: Clayton 2015:40–43; Olien and Olien 1993:42–44; Day 1909b (quotes, 460). Unofficially, survey officials were even more pessimistic. In 1919 chief geologist David White warned in a popular magazine that “the peak of production will soon be passed—possibly within three years” (White 1919:385).

  British coal debate: Jonsson 2014:160–64, 2013, chap. 7; Madureira 2012:399–404; “The Coal Question,” Saturday Review 21(1866):709–10; McCulloch 1854 (1837):596–600; Holland 1835:454–63; Great Britain House of Lords 1830; Bakewell 1828 (1813):178–81 (2,000 years, 181); Williams 1789:158–79 (“fortunate island,” 172).